Charts are automatically displayed as soon as the currency market opens for the day and the necessary data is obtained.
Please wait a moment for the display.
| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | July Housing Construction Permits [MoM] | Graph Display | |||||
| π¨π³ China | β | August Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) | Graph Display | |||||
| π«π· France | β | August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | Graph Display | |||||
| π©πͺ Germany | β | August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | Graph Display | |||||
| πͺπΊ Europe | β | August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | Graph Display | |||||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | Graph Display | |||||
| πͺπΊ Europe | β | July Unemployment Rate | Graph Display |
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| type | Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| stage absence | - | πΊπΈ America | - |
| stage absence | - | π¨π¦ Canada | - |
Today's Outlook
It remains in the low range of the downward wave that occurred after Chairman Powell's remarks, and no clear breakout has been confirmed. Since the U.S. market is closed today, we are conscious of the possibility that price movements may be limited due to a decrease in trading participants. In the short term, the market is likely to be in a range, and a cautious response is required in determining whether to push the price down or sell back up, taking into account the decline in liquidity.
Although the market is at the high end of the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, no clear breakout has been confirmed. Since the U.S. market is closed today, we are conscious of the possibility that price movements may be limited due to reduced liquidity. In the short term, the price is likely to remain in the high zone, and new materials will be needed to chase higher prices. Both push-buying and return selling will require a cautious response, taking into account price swings due to thin trading volume.
Although the market is at the high end of the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, there has been no clear breakout. Since the U.S. market is closed today, we are conscious of the possibility that price movements may be limited due to reduced liquidity caused by a decrease in market participants. In the short term, the price is likely to remain slightly above the highs, and new materials are required to test the upside. This is a phase that requires a cautious response based on price swings, taking into consideration both push-buying and return selling.
The market has maintained a gradual upward channel so far, and although the momentum itself is not strong, the downward movement is still continuing. Since the U.S. market is closed today, there is a possibility that price movements will be limited due to reduced liquidity. In the short term, this is a phase where it is easy to be aware of push-buying based on the assumption that the price will remain within the channel, but beware of up/down swings due to sudden flows. Given the lack of liquidity, this is a day that calls for a cautious response, including a return sell-off.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
Today, USDJPY lacked a clear sense of direction throughout the day as the U.S. market was closed and major trading materials were scarce. In the European markets as well, there was no significant movement, and the price was mainly moving up and down within a limited price range.
Today, EURUSD saw limited testing of the higher highs of the post-Chairman Powell's remarks. Buying was led in the European markets, but momentum gradually slowed thereafter due to limited trading activity, partly due to the fact that the U.S. markets were closed.
Today, GBPUSD tested the highs of the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, but failed to break above and stalled. Although buying was in the lead, price movement was slow and time ran out due to the limited number of traders due to the U.S. markets being closed.
Today, AUDUSD saw a move to renew the previous day's highs as buyers gained the upper hand in the European market. In the New York market, the U.S. market was closed for the day, so there were no major price movements, and the market continued to lack a sense of direction. Although the overall price range was limited, there were many occasions during the day when the price remained within an upward channel, giving a sense of a certain degree of resilience.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
Remained at the lows of the downward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks and lacked a sense of direction
With the U.S. market closed, there is an awareness of limited price range due to reduced liquidity
The situation is likely to remain range-bound in the short term
Assumed range
Lower price is around 146.80, a level to be aware of.
Upside is likely to be the resistance zone around 147.50
Overall, the price is expected to be in the range of 146.80-147.50
tactics
Based on short-term range rotation in consideration of liquidity decline
When picking up a push, confirm lower support before taking a smaller position.
Pay attention to sudden price movements even when aiming for a return sale.
trigger
A clear break above 147.50 could confirm a short-term return phase
A break below 146.80 would easily tilt the pair toward weakness.
Note that unexpected flows occur during NY time when liquidity is lower.
override condition
A major break below 146.80 would negate the range assumption.
Tactics need to be reconsidered even if 147.50 is exceeded on a closing basis
If volatility increases more than expected, the range strategy is invalidated
risk event
Decreased liquidity due to U.S. market closure
Small economic indicators and key figures to be released in European time
Sudden geopolitical risks and stock market volatility could spill over into the dollar-yen
Position Management
Keep position size to about half the normal size.
Take profit in 10 to 20 pips at frequent intervals.
Stop-losses are placed against recent support/resistance to avoid excessive risk
checklist
Can the support level of 146.80 be maintained?
Will there be a reaction at the upside resistance near 147.50?
Availability of sudden price movements due to reduced liquidity
Market Summary
Stalemate with no clear breakout to the upside while still at the high end of the rising wave
Lower liquidity due to the U.S. market holiday and price range is likely to be limited.
Short-term trend is likely to remain range-oriented as we wait for materials.
Assumed range
Assumed range of 1.0880-1.0950
On the downside, the 1.0880 area is likely to be considered as a potential push point.
Above is likely to be around 1.0950 for a return sale.
tactics
Basis is range rotation.
Consider picking up shallow pushes in small lots after confirming a rebound when the lower limit is approached
When approaching the upper limit, consider selling back in installments and avoid chasing.
trigger
5-minute confirmation of a breakout above 1.0950 and increased volume are indicators for a continued upward push.
A slow return after a break below 1.0880 is likely to be a sign of downside advantage
Notice the flow changes in early London and before and after the FIX.
override condition
Reconsider range assumption if the price remains above 1.0960 on a closing basis.
Tactical review also in case of a volume that establishes a 1.0870 break below the 1.0870 level.
When a high volatility turnover is confirmed with a series of rapid expansion and rapid decline in the middle of the range
risk event
Thin trading and transient flows due to the U.S. market holiday
Headlines on revised eurozone indicators and key figures
Spillover of sudden fluctuations in stocks and interest rates
Position Management
Size should be controlled to less than 50% of normal
Interest is taken in 10-20 pips, divided into smaller increments.
Stop-losses are set at 15-25 pips outside of recent highs and lows with a risk reward of at least 1:1.
checklist
Is the board thinning at 1.0880 and 1.0950?
Directionality in early London and whether or not there is a reversal before or after the FIX
Timing of the switch from a 5-minute volatility contraction to an expansion
Market Summary
Transition to the highs of the upward wave but lack of upward breakout
Limited price range due to lower liquidity due to the U.S. market holiday.
Short-term: range-bound, awaiting materials
Assumed range
Assumed range of 1.2700-1.2760
On the downside, the area around 1.2700 is likely to be considered as a candidate for a push.
Above is likely to be the 1.2760 area for a return to the market.
tactics
Tactics are based on range rotation, with the middle of the range forsaken.
Considering pushing the lower limit closer in small increments after confirming the rebound.
Consider a return sale in installments when the upper limit is approached and avoid follow-up purchases.
trigger
5-minute confirmation of a break above 1.2760 and increased volume are evaluated to continue the upward push.
A slowdown in return after a break below 1.2700 is treated as a signal of weakness.
Watch for flow changes in early London and before and after FIX
override condition
Range assumption will be revised if the price continues to remain above 1.2770 on a closing basis
Reexamine tactics even in the case of a volume that establishes a 1.2685 crack.
If a higher-than-expected high volatility turnover is confirmed
risk event
Thin trading and transient flow swings due to the U.S. market holiday
Headlines from revised UK and Eurozone indexes and key figures
Spillover of sudden fluctuations in stocks and interest rates
Position Management
Position size should be controlled to less than 50% of normal
Interest is taken in 10-20 pips in installments.
Stop-losses are set at 15-25 pips outside of the recent high and low, and the risk reward is maintained above 1.
checklist
Confirmation of board thickness and execution street at 1.2700 and 1.2760
Directionality in early London and whether or not there is a reversal before or after the FIX
Timing of the switch from 5-minute bora contraction to expansion
Market Summary
Momentum limited while maintaining a gradual upward channel
Continued downside movement, but price action may be lackluster due to the U.S. market holiday
Environment that requires attention to swings due to sudden flows
Assumed range
Assumed range of 0.6680-0.6740
The lower area around 0.6680 is likely to be considered as a push level.
On the upside, the 0.6740 area is an easy target for a return sale.
tactics
Tactics are based on buying at the pushpoint, while taking a cautious approach at higher prices.
If it approaches the lower limit, check for a rebound and pick it up in small lots.
Leave room to consider a return sale in a split near the upper end of the range.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6740 would raise awareness of the possibility of channel expansion
A break below 0.6680 would signal weakness in the short term
Watch for direction in early London hours and thin trade flow in NY hours
override condition
If 0.6750 is maintained on a closing basis, we will revisit our push-back assumption.
Even if the 0.6670 break is established, we need to rethink our tactics.
If the assumed range does not work due to a sudden turn to high volatility, withdrawal is a priority.
risk event
Lower liquidity and transitory flows due to U.S. market holidays
Sudden changes in Australian economic indicators and resource prices
Cross-flows due to spillovers from stock market and interest rate movements
Position Management
Position size is controlled to 50% of normal
Interest is taken in 10-20 pips in installments.
Limit risk by placing losses 15-25 pips outside of recent highs and lows.
checklist
Whether the support of 0.6680 is maintained or not
Whether or not 0.6740 will be breached and how it will be accompanied by volume
Existence or non-existence of sudden flows due to reduced liquidity
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
Today, USDJPY remained in a range throughout the day as the US market was closed.
summary
With no major economic indicators or events, price movements lacked a sense of direction.
Although there was some buying in the European market, the price range was limited in the New York hours.
Today's Price Movement
In the European market, it lifted to around 147.80, but was sluggish thereafter.
In the New York market, participation was limited, with only small movements around 147.50-147.80.
Background & Materials
The U.S. market holiday reduced liquidity and made it difficult to see large price movements.
In the external environment, the general movement of the dollar also calmed down and a wait-and-see mood prevailed throughout the currency markets.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
On the 4-hour time frame, the upper end of the range was tested but not broken, and the downside was limited.
Immediate support is near 147.50 and resistance is near 148.00.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily trend continues to hover near the moving average line, and the medium-term direction has not yet been solidified.
On the other hand, the price has remained stuck in the highs since August, and whether it exceeds 148.00 is a level that will be watched closely.
impression
Today's lack of materials made it difficult for the market to move.
It is felt that it is necessary to check the market reaction again after the holidays.
trade observations
In the short term, the market was easily aware of both push-back and return sales.
It appears that many participants stayed in position adjustment rather than building new positions.
checklist
Whether or not the upside around 148.00 can be broken
Will support around 147.50 hold?
Whether liquidity will return to the U.S. market after the holiday
looking back
EURUSD Today Continues Rally Wave After Chairman Powell's Remarks but Fails to Close Higher; Trading Limited Due to US Holiday
summary
Buying was temporarily ahead in the European market, but then lacked momentum and ended in a small move.
With the U.S. market closed and few participants, the price range remained limited.
Today's Price Movement
In the European market, the price rose to around 1.0920 and was seen at the previous day's highs
In the New York market, the range continued to hover around 1.0900-1.0920, lacking a sense of direction.
Background & Materials
Aggressive trading was restrained mainly due to reduced liquidity caused by the U.S. holiday
Market participants took a wait-and-see attitude amid the recent focus on Fed officials' comments and the inflation outlook
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 4-hour trend continued to struggle in the extension of the uptrend.
The 1.0900 area became a short-term support and 1.0930 a level that is easily recognized as a resistance.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
On a daily basis, the market continues to languish near the upper end of the range since July, making it difficult to determine the direction.
The divergence from the moving average is small, and the medium-term strength and weakness are in line with each other.
impression
The market as a whole remained quiet today due to a lack of trading materials
In the short term, the predominant trend was to wait for the right moment to increase participation.
trade observations
There was an impression of a mixture of those trying to buy at the pushpoint and those conscious of selling on the return.
Lack of directionality led to mainly adjustive trading rather than aggressive position building
checklist
Can you maintain support around 1.0900?
Can the upside near 1.0930 be broken through?
Whether the restoration of liquidity after the reopening of the U.S. market will bring back the momentum
looking back
Today's GBPUSD took over the rising wave after Chairman Powell's remarks and tested the highs, but failed to break above and stalled
summary
Buying temporarily prevailed in the European market, testing the highs.
Liquidity was low due to the U.S. market being closed, and price movements were limited.
Today's Price Movement
In the European market, the price rose to around 1.2770, testing the previous day's highs
In the New York market, the price settled in a range around 1.2740-1.2770, with little sense of direction.
Background & Materials
Active trading was restrained due to limited market participants due to the U.S. holiday
Strong material on the pound alone was lacking, as the dollar in general was calm
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 4-hour time frame confirmed the shape of a push back after testing the highs
Support was near 1.2740 and resistance was near 1.2780.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily price continues to languish in the 1.2700 level, with limited medium-term direction.
Continued to hover around the moving average line and remain in equilibrium
impression
Buying trend temporarily prevailed, but thin trading due to the holidays weighed on the market.
In the absence of positive new materials, price movements had to be limited.
trade observations
There were many instances of mixed moves to pick up the push and sell back to the highs.
Participants who limited themselves to short-term trading and avoided aggressive position building were conspicuous.
checklist
Will support around 1.2740 hold?
Can it break above the 1.2780 area?
Will price movements expand with the restoration of liquidity after the reopening of the U.S. market?
looking back
Today, AUDUSD was bid higher in the European market, reaching the previous day's high, but was slightly volatile in the New York market due to the U.S. holiday
summary
Buyers in the European market were aware of the upward channel.
The New York market continued to lack a sense of direction with limited trading participation
Today's Price Movement
The price rose to around 0.6700 during the European hour, and there was a break above the previous day's highs
The NY session settled in a range around 0.6680-0.6700, with limited price movement.
Background & Materials
Aggressive trading was generally restrained as liquidity declined due to the U.S. market holiday.
New material from the Australian side was scarce and susceptible to the external environment.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 4-hourly chart remained in an ascending channel and was seen testing the highs
Support was near 0.6680 and resistance was near 0.6720.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
On a daily basis, it continues to languish near the upper end of the range it has been in since July
The position of the moving averages also made it difficult to see any major direction, and it was easy to be aware of the continuation of the range.
impression
Thin trading due to the holiday restrained market movements, although buying in the European market prevailed.
No aggressive setups were seen while maintaining an upward channel in the short term
trade observations
Picking up the push was the predominant trend, but was unlikely to lead to a move to higher prices.
Short-term trading adjustments took center stage as the market as a whole took a wait-and-see attitude.
checklist
Will support around 0.6680 hold?
Can the resistance around 0.6720 be broken through?
Whether liquidity will be restored in the U.S. market after the holiday
FX Diary