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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★★ | Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [y/y] (Apr-Jun) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★ | Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [y/y] Apr-Jun Apr-Jun Apr-Jun Apr-Jun Apr-Jun |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Caixin Service Sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇫🇷 France | ★ | August Purchasing Managers' Index for Services (PMI, revised) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August Purchasing Managers' Index for Services (PMI, revised) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | August Purchasing Managers' Index for Services (PMI, revised) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | August Purchasing Managers' Index for Services (PMI, revised) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | July Wholesale Price Index (PPI) [MoM] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | July Wholesale Price Index (PPI) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | July Job Openings in the Current Employment Survey (JOLTS) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | July Manufacturing New Orders [MoM] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | U.S. District Fed Economic Report (Beige Book) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| type | Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇪🇺 Europe | European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde, remarks |
Today's Outlook
Today's USDJPY is continuing the trend of the previous day's attempt to break above the downward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks, but was unable to break out and was pushed back. There is a possibility of another attempt to test the highs, and short-term price action should be watched carefully. However, overall, there is no clear sense of direction and the market remains mainly in a range. In the short term, this is a situation that calls for a response with an awareness of both push-buying and return selling.
Today's EURUSD, which sold off sharply the day before, ultimately settled within a range and failed to show any clear sense of direction. Although the trend of long-term U.S. interest rates continues to be a concern, price movements are likely to be limited in this environment. Today's trading environment is likely to be characterized by a combination of push-buy and sell-back strategies based on the assumption that the market will remain within the range.
Today's GBPUSD broke down from the upward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day and did not leave a daily downside mustache, which spread awareness to the downside among all market participants. The overall trend is likely to be centered on a move back to the upside. In reaction to the large move, the market may enter an adjustment phase in the short term, but in that case, the strategy of looking for good opportunities to return to the market will be the focus of attention. Basically, it is a situation where we need to be aware of the downward direction and carefully assess the timing.
Today, AUDUSD was sold off sharply on the previous day, but did not break below clear support, and the firmness of the lower price was also recognized. On the other hand, the daily price appears to have rebounded at the resistance, so this is a phase where traders have different views of the market depending on their time frames. There is a possibility of a small return in the European market, but it is important to wait for the price movement to consolidate in either direction rather than making a hasty judgment on the direction. In the short term, a flexible response is required, taking into account both push-buying and return selling.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
Today's USDJPY briefly renewed the previous day's highs, but then stalled out, lacking momentum and failing to break above it clearly. The market is still unable to break out of the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, and the market continues to be unable to find a sense of direction. In the European markets, buying temporarily prevailed, but there were signs of caution in pursuit of higher prices.
Today, EURUSD tested the previous day's low but quickly rebounded. Since then, no major developments were seen and upside remained limited and lacking a sense of direction. In Europe and beyond, while there were some scenes where small buy-backs prevailed, active follow-through was refrained from.
Today, GBPUSD rebounded early to the upside, although there was a test of the previous day's low. Thereafter, there was no move to return and the day ended in a quiet adjustment phase.
Today, the AUDUSD was firm as buying gradually began in the European market and continued through the New York market. Buying back was predominant in the AUDUSD, and the pair recovered all of the previous day's losses.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
USDJPY failed to break above the downward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day and was pushed back, still mainly in a range
Short term, there is a possibility of testing the highs again, and the situation continues to be prone to fluctuating price movements up and down
Assumed range
Assuming a lower price around 147.80 and an upper price around 148.50.
Difficult to get a clear sense of direction, and the market is likely to move up and down.
tactics
Basic stance is to focus on range rotation and flexibly use push-buying and return selling
Avoid chasing highs and wait for a reaction at support or resistance before entering the market.
trigger
A clear break above 148.50 could strengthen the buying interest.
A break below 147.80 would likely bring awareness of selling pressure in the short term.
Results of U.S. economic indicators may provide short-term momentum
override condition
A break below 147.50 would invalidate the push-buy strategy.
On the other hand, if it settles above 148.70, the premise of the return strategy will be broken.
risk event
U.S. economic indicators (ISM, employment-related, etc.)
Changes in Interest Rate Outlook as a Result of Statements by Fed Officials
Risk aversion due to stock market and geopolitical factors
Position Management
Keep lot sizes modest and diversify entries.
The profit target is around 148.40-148.50 and the stop loss is set at 147.50 or below.
Maintain a modest long-term position with a focus on short-term trades.
checklist
Can support around 147.80 hold?
Can the resistance around 148.50 be broken through?
Whether volatility will increase in response to U.S. economic indicators
Market Summary
EURUSD remains directionless, staying within a range after a big sell-off the previous day
Continued awareness of trends in long-term U.S. interest rates, but price movements are likely to be limited.
Assumed range
Lower price is expected around 1.0870 and higher price around 1.0930
The market will mainly move back and forth within a range, and new materials will be needed to break out of it.
tactics
Basis is to focus on range rotation and flexibly combine push-buying and return selling
Short-term entry is valid after confirming support and resistance
trigger
A clear break above 1.0930 would likely increase buying interest.
A break below 1.0870 would increase selling pressure and expand short-term downside awareness.
Results of U.S. economic indicators may be a short-term volatile factor
override condition
A break below 1.0850 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if it settles above 1.0950, the premise of the return strategy will be destroyed.
risk event
U.S. economic indicators (ISM, employment-related, etc.)
Changes in Interest Rate Outlook as a Result of Statements by Fed Officials
Inflation-related data and business confidence indices for the European region
Position Management
Start with half the normal lot size and try to diversify entries.
The profit target is set at around 1.0920 to 1.0930, and the loss target is set at 1.0850 or below.
Focus on short-term trading and maintain long-term positions sparingly.
checklist
Can support around 1.0870 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.0930 be broken through?
Whether the U.S. economic indicators will lead to a move out of the range
Market Summary
GBPUSD has been increasingly conscious of the downward direction after the previous day's upswing after Chairman Powell's remarks and the lack of a downside mustache on the daily chart
Overall, the situation continues to be centered on the trend toward a return to the market.
Assumed range
Lower price is expected around 1.2680 and higher price around 1.2760
Conscious that the market will continue to move in a range while testing a return in the short term
tactics
Basic tactic is to return to the market.
A posture that takes advantage of temporary rallies during the adjustment phase and aims for the timing of a return is effective.
trigger
A break above 1.2760 could strengthen buying momentum in the short term
Selling pressure is likely to accelerate if the price falls below 1.2680
Economic indicators in the U.S. and U.K. will be a factor influencing direction
override condition
If 1.2800 is clearly established above, the assumption of a return to the 1.2800 level will be broken.
Conversely, a break below 1.2650 would negate the push-back scenario
risk event
U.S. economic indicators (ISM and employment-related data)
Changes in Interest Rate Outlook as a Result of Statements by Fed Officials
Changes in pound supply and demand due to UK economic indicators and key figures' statements
Position Management
Lot size is kept lower than usual and diversified entries are used as a basic rule.
The profit target is set at around 1.2690-1.2700 and the stop loss is set above 1.2800.
Focus on short-term turnover and avoid building large positions
checklist
Can support around 1.2680 be maintained?
Will the return around 1.2760 be restrained?
Whether U.S. and U.K. economic indicators will increase volatility
Market Summary
AUDUSD sold off sharply on the previous day, but did not break below support and is now aware of the firmness of the lower price
The daily price appears to have rebounded at the resistance, a phase that can be viewed in different ways depending on the time frame.
Assumed range
Assuming downside around 0.6670 and upside around 0.6730.
Difficult to establish a sense of direction, and the trend is likely to be mainly within a range.
tactics
Basically, be aware of range rotation and use push-buying and return selling flexibly.
Focus on short-term price action until a sense of direction emerges.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6730 would likely increase buying interest.
Selling pressure is likely to prevail if the price falls below 0.6670
Economic indicator releases in Europe and the U.S. may provide short-term direction
override condition
A break below 0.6650 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if it settles above 0.6750, the premise of the return strategy will be broken.
risk event
U.S. economic indicators (employment-related, ISM, etc.)
Impact of Chinese economic trends and commodity prices on the Australian dollar
Australian domestic economic indicators and RBA-related statements
Position Management
Keep lot sizes low and try to enter the market in stages.
The profit margin should be set around 0.6720-0.6730, and the stop loss should be set below 0.6650.
Refrain from long-term positions and focus on short-term trading
checklist
Can support around 0.6670 hold?
Can the resistance around 0.6730 be broken through?
Whether volatility will increase in U.S. and China-related indicators
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
USDJPY stalled out, slightly renewing the previous day's highs but failing to break above them clearly, and continued to lack a sense of direction
summary
The market remained in a range, unable to break out of the upward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks.
Buying was prevalent in European markets at times, but caution was seen in pursuit of higher prices
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time, the price rose to around 148.20 on the back of modest buying.
In the European market, there was a move to test around 148.30, but it failed to break above, and thereafter, the price was mainly hovering around 147.90-148.10.
Background & Materials
Trends in long-term U.S. interest rates continued to support the dollar
On the other hand, new materials were scarce, and aggressive position tilting was limited.
Technical levels formed after Chairman Powell's comments are still restraining the market
Technical Memo (Short-term)
On the 4-hour time frame, around 148.30 is considered as resistance
Lower price support was found around 147.80, confirming short-term range formation
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily trend remains within the ascending wave range, and the medium-term direction is still not set
Moving averages show a sideways trend and continue to hold
impression
Although there was a temporary test of higher prices, the market remained cautious in its upward movement
While lacking a sense of direction, instability remains, with a tendency to swing up and down.
trade observations
The environment was conducive to both push-buying and return selling, making it suitable for short-term trading.
Avoiding the highs and trading with an awareness of the upper and lower bounds of the range was effective.
checklist
Can support around 147.80 hold?
Can the resistance around 148.30 be broken through?
Whether U.S. interest rates and index releases will give a sense of direction
looking back
EURUSD rebounded after testing the previous day's low, but then lacked direction with limited upside
summary
While the firmness of the lower price was recognized, upward momentum was lacking.
The overall market was mainly in a wait-and-see mood and remained within a range
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo session tested the downside around 1.0870 before rebounding back to around 1.0890
Slight buy-backs prevailed in the European market, but the price remained heavy on the upside around 1.0910
In the New York market, the price firmed around 1.0900, with limited sense of direction.
Background & Materials
Developments in long-term U.S. interest rates continued to be a factor in the dollar's strength and weakness
Lack of strong new material from the European side restrained euro buying activity.
Markets focused on position adjustments ahead of U.S. economic indicators in the second half of the week
Technical Memo (Short-term)
On the 4-hour time frame, 1.0870 was recognized as support and a factor supporting lower prices
The upside resistance was around 1.0910-1.0920, and the short-term range formation continued
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily trend continues to hold between 1.0850 and 1.0950, and the medium-term direction is difficult to determine.
Moving averages are flat and no clear trend signals have been identified
impression
The strength of the lower price was confirmed, but lacked the ability to break through to the upside
The market is waiting for new materials, and a wait-and-see attitude was strongly expressed.
trade observations
The environment was suitable for short-term trading, as both buying at the pushpoint and selling on the return were easy to function.
Small rotational trades with a range in mind were more effective than leaning in one direction.
checklist
Can support around 1.0870 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.0910-1.0920 be broken through?
Whether the release of U.S. economic indicators will lead to a move out of the range
looking back
GBPUSD rebounded after testing the previous day's low and then ended the day in an adjustment phase with limited returns
summary
There was a search for lower prices, but the market rebounded early and turned to the upside.
No major price fluctuations were seen, and the overall trend continued to be adjustment-driven.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time showed firmness around 1.2730
European markets moved slowly higher to around 1.2760, but momentum was lackluster.
In the New York market, there was only a small back-and-forth around 1.2750
Background & Materials
Trends in long-term U.S. interest rates continued to determine the dollar's strength and weakness.
New material was scarce from the UK side, and it was difficult to generate direction in the pound alone.
A wait-and-see attitude prevailed in the market ahead of the release of U.S. indices.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
1.2730 is being considered as short-term support.
The price movement remained within a narrow range with resistance around 1.2760
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily range is still at 1.2700-1.2800
Moving averages are flat and the medium-term trend is difficult to define
impression
A rebound was seen, but it did not lead to a clear trend and remained quiet.
Limited price range both up and down, indicating the cautious attitude of trading participants.
trade observations
Push-buying worked, but it was difficult to hope for large gains.
Returns were difficult to establish and there were few opportunities for aggressive trades.
checklist
Can support around 1.2730 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.2760 be broken through?
Whether U.S. economic indicators will change the trend
looking back
AUDUSD regained all of the previous day's losses as buying from Europe continued into New York
summary
The Australian dollar was bought by the European market, absorbing the decline in the dollar's value.
Directionality was limited, but the firmness of the lower price was confirmed.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time was limited to small movements around 0.6680
Buying was stronger in European markets, rising to around 0.6710.
The momentum continued in the New York market, extending to around 0.6730.
Background & Materials
Buy-backs prevailed in the Australian dollar amid awareness of rising U.S. long-term interest rates.
Although there was little new material from Australia, risk appetite supported the Australian dollar.
Overall, buy-backs were mainly adjustmental in anticipation of the release of U.S. indices
Technical Memo (Short-term)
0.6680 acted as short-term support.
The upper price is now conscious around 0.6730, which is the upper limit of the short-term range
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily range of 0.6650-0.6750 continues
Moving averages show a sideways trend, supporting a medium-term holding tone
impression
The fact that the previous day's decline was fully recovered showed the solidity of the Australian dollar's lower price.
However, upward momentum is limited and lack of direction continues
trade observations
Push-back strategies worked well, while return selling was less likely to work.
Short-term price action was the main focus, and long-term position building was reserved.
checklist
Can support around 0.6680 hold?
Can the resistance around 0.6730 be broken through?
Whether U.S. economic indicators will strengthen the direction of the Australian dollar
FX Diary