Market Summary

USDJPY remains in a directionless range ahead of U.S. employment data

Assumed range

Assuming a range centered around 147.50-148.30

Large fluctuations are likely to be concentrated after the release of indicators

tactics

Before the index, range rotation will be the basis, with a flexible combination of short-term push-buying and return selling.

After the announcement, be ready to move to trend following in case of directional movement.

trigger

A break above 148.30 could strengthen short-term buyback

Selling pressure is likely to be conscious at below 147.50

It is advisable to enter the market after confirming the initial response following the release of the employment statistics.

override condition

A clear move above 148.50 would negate the return strategy.

A significant move below 147.30 would invalidate the push-buy strategy.

risk event

The release of U.S. employment statistics is the most important factor to watch

Average hourly earnings and labor participation rate to be announced at the same time may also influence the direction of the dollar

Position Management

Keep position sizes small and limit risk before indicators

The profit target is about 20 to 30 pips, and stop-loss is at the level where the support or resistance is clearly broken.

Be aware of liquidity and expect slippage after an index announcement.

checklist

Will the range of 147.50-148.30 remain intact?

Whether or not there will be a sense of direction after the jobs report

Will the average hourly earnings results have an additional impact on the dollar?

Market Summary

EURUSD remains in a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the U.S. jobs report and continues to move in small, directionless moves

Assumed range

Assuming a range centered around 1.0800-1.0870

Likely to remain within a range before the statistics are released.

tactics

Until the release of the index, range rotation will be the basis, with a flexible combination of buying on the downside and selling on the upside.

After the announcement, be ready to move to forward in case of directional movement.

trigger

A clear break above 1.0870 could lead to a short-term buying trend

Selling pressure is likely to increase if the price falls below 1.0800

It is advisable to enter the market after confirming the initial response after the employment statistics.

override condition

A move through 1.0890 would negate the return strategy.

If the price falls below 1.0780, the push-buy strategy will be invalidated.

risk event

The results of the U.S. employment statistics are the most important factor to watch.

Average hourly earnings and unemployment rates will be released at the same time and may affect the dollar market

Lack of new material on the European side, likely to be a U.S.-led move

Position Management

Limit position size and risk before statistics are released.

The profit target is set at 20 to 30 pips, and the stop loss is set at a level clearly above support or resistance.

Immediately after the announcement, be aware of reduced liquidity and slippage when timing your entry.

checklist

Will the 1.0800-1.0870 range hold?

Which direction will be taken after the release of the employment statistics?

Will average hourly earnings or unemployment rate provide additional material?

Market Summary

GBPUSD remains limited with a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the U.S. jobs report

Assumed range

Assuming a range centered around 1.2600-1.2680

Large fluctuations are likely to be suppressed until the statistics are released.

tactics

Before the employment statistics, use a range rotation as a basis for short-term push-back and return sales.

After the announcement, be prepared to quickly switch to trend-following when a sense of direction emerges

trigger

A clear break above 1.2680 could lead to a buying trend

Selling pressure is likely to be conscious if the price falls below 1.2600

The trend could tilt either up or down depending on the employment numbers.

override condition

A rise above 1.2700 would negate the return strategy.

A decline below 1.2580 would invalidate the push-buy strategy.

risk event

U.S. employment statistics are the biggest focus

Average hourly earnings and unemployment rate to be released at the same time may also affect the pound dollar

Lack of new material on the UK side, price movements are likely to be mainly driven by US indices

Position Management

Keep positions small and limit risk before indicators

Set the profit margin at 20 to 30 pips and the stop loss at the level where the major support/resistance is broken.

Be careful of widening spreads and sudden fluctuations immediately after the release of an indicator, and be cautious when entering the market.

checklist

Will the 1.2600-1.2680 range hold?

Whether or not there will be a sense of direction after the release of the employment statistics

Will average hourly earnings or unemployment rate provide additional impetus?

Market Summary

The previous day was slowly declining in the absence of push-backs, and there is a sense of weakness in the upside momentum

Today's wait-and-see environment ahead of U.S. employment data makes it difficult to get a sense of direction.

Liquidity tends to be concentrated in the initial reaction after the announcement, so be careful not to bias your position in advance.

Assumed range

Assuming a range around 0.6640-0.6720

Assuming traffic around 0.6660-0.6700 in European hours as we wait for the event.

tactics

Flexibly switch between short-term push-buying and return selling based on range rotation before the index.

After the announcement, follow the break in the direction of the break and close the position as soon as there is a sign of reversal.

Avoid selling at highs and lows and prioritize confirming reactions at milestones.

trigger

Room to test 0.6750 area as buyback strengthens above 0.6720

Selling pressure strengthens below 0.6640 to confirm lower price around 0.6610.

Early NY jobs report and average hourly earnings surprise key to direction

override condition

To the upside, if the price settles clearly above 0.6750, the return assumption will be broken.

On the downside, a clear break below 0.6610 would set back the push-back scenario.

When a fake break occurs immediately after the indicator, withdraw once at the first high and low recovery.

risk event

U.S. employment statistics and average hourly earnings results

Sudden change in U.S. interest rates and a risk-on/off shift in the stock market

Changes in sensitivity of the Australian dollar to changes in China-related indicators and commodity prices

Position Management

Assume spread widening before an index, keeping lot size at less than half the normal level.

Set the profit margin at 20 to 30 pips and set the stop-loss at the latest milestone.

Immediately after the announcement, delay entry for a few minutes to reduce the risk of slippage and sudden reversal

checklist

Execution quotes and board thickness above and below the range of 0.6640 and 0.6720

Surprise direction of employment statistics and average hourly earnings and U.S. interest rates follow.

Is the high and low renewal continuing on the 5-minute time scale after the break?

looking back

Weak economic indicators spurred selling and pushed the market down to the Pivot S3 area, but the return was limited and the direction was unclear.

summary

Not reaching the lower wave lows after Powell's remarks and remaining at the halfway point

Event-derived unidirectional trend did not continue and range reestablishment was conscious

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo's upside was heavy as the aftermath of the previous day's sell-off dominated the market.

In Europe, buy-backs were slow and upside was noticeably restrained at around 148.00.

New York closed lower after the indexes fell further

Background & Materials

Weakness in U.S. indicators led to lower U.S. interest rates and pressure to sell the dollar

No sharp risk aversion in equities and credit, mostly currency-only reactions

Domestic materials were scarce, and speculation related to the Bank of Japan did not play a leading role in the market.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

147.20-147.40 is considered as a lower price candidate and the rebound is slow.

148.10-148.30 is the latest return barrier, and every failure to break above it strengthens the sell-off.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Daily trend remains within the post-Powell downward wave range and moving averages are trending sideways

A firming above 148.50 will create room for improvement and a break below 146.80 will strengthen the view of continued downward pressure.

impression

Follow the initial event but beware of fake breaks due to lack of sustainability

A cautious stance waiting for verification of a second-stage return or push appears to be effective.

trade observations

Avoid widening spreads and slippage immediately after the index and wait for the waveform to settle before entering the market.

The stop loss is set outside of the recent high and low.

checklist

Will the price continue to hold lower around 147.20?

Will the return around 148.10-148.30 be restrained?

Will the dollar remain under selling pressure as U.S. interest rates continue to fall?

looking back

Weak U.S. economic indicators led to a dollar sell-off and a rally, but after a brief break above, it fell back and formed an upper mustache

summary

Initial buying was widespread, but growth slowed as profit-taking prevailed at the high end of the range.

Sustainability of the break cannot be confirmed and direction is still limited

More shades of range restructuring as we wait for the next material

Today's Price Movement

European hours were dominated by buying, testing the previous day's return high zone

New York time saw further gains due to the index, but the follow-through was weak and stalled.

The highs and lows were limited as the market shifted back and forth toward the close.

Background & Materials

Weak U.S. indicators lead to lower U.S. interest rates and dollar selling, supporting euro buying

Lack of strong new support from the European side, led by U.S. factors

Due to the weekend, it was difficult to continue to chase higher prices due to the rapid turnover of short-term sources.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Break judgment is pending due to the conspicuous upper whiskers in the selloff after the break above.

Momentum slowed as sellers were aware of a return to the market at the recent highs

Pushes are likely to be shallow, and confirmation of the strength of the return is needed.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The upper end of the rising wave range after Powell's remarks was tested and rejected.

Moving averages are flat and the medium-term trend is flat

Momentum indicators ooze a slight headway sign

impression

Event-driven upswing confirmed but with limited thrust

We are in a phase where we are waiting for the next renewal of highs and lows with the possibility of a fake break in mind.

trade observations

The impression is that short-term selling after confirming a stall in the return is likely to work, avoiding the chase to higher prices.

The push is to focus on rotation even if it is picked up while shallow, and size is controlled.

Slippage and reversal during index headlines should be noted

checklist

Can it settle above the upper mustache high?

Can the recent push low be maintained and the lower price be raised?

Will U.S. interest rate moves signal continued dollar selling?

looking back

Weak U.S. economic indicators led to dollar selling, which largely reversed two days of declines, but the day's gains were eroded by profit-taking at the end of the day, and the day's close was marked by long upper bows and whiskers.

summary

A test to the upside came in, but the highs were sluggish with a return to the highs.

The sustainability of the break could not be confirmed, and the direction of the market was still unclear.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time was slightly firm, continuing the previous day's trend

European hours were dominated by buyers and continued to test the upside in stages.

In New York, the index was higher after the index, but stalled at the highs and pared down the gains by the close.

Background & Materials

Weakness in key U.S. indicators led to lower U.S. interest rates and dollar selling.

Relatively little material from the U.K. side, U.S. indices and interest rate trends led the market.

Unwinding of positions and profit-taking by short-term sources limited growth at higher prices.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Daily closed with long upper whiskers, indicating a slowdown in short-term upside momentum

Selling pressure was conscious at the recent highs, and the upside became heavier each time the price was pushed back.

Short-term moving averages were flat, showing signs of range reestablishment

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Stalled near the upper end of the mid-term range, with the upper band limit acting as resistance

The medium-term trend was close to flat and directional judgment was pending confirmation of a break

impression

The event-driven upside was confirmed, but the driving force for continued growth was not strong enough, and the impression was that caution about high prices prevailed.

The market is likely to move up and down until the next material is released.

trade observations

Short-term selling after confirming the stall of the return was more likely to work than following in the high price zone.

While the push was shallow, the rebound was slow and margins were realistic for a modest rotation.

checklist

Whether or not there is an upper breakout accompanied by the elimination of stagnation and volume in the high price range

Whether or not the downside price continues to rise after the formation of a push

Impact of U.S. Interest Rates and U.S. Indicator Headlines on Pound Momentum

looking back

Weak U.S. indexes led to dollar selling, which stalled after the rise, leaving long upper whiskers.

summary

Highs this week, but the upside did not last, erasing some of the gains.

Directional impression of range reversion without break confirmation

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo moved slightly lower, dragging down the previous day's softness

Buying strengthened in Europe and moved one step higher, reaching a new high in early New York

After the index, profit-taking prevailed and growth was reduced toward the end of the day.

Background & Materials

Weakness in U.S. economic indicators spills over into lower U.S. interest rates and dollar sales

China-related and commodity market tailwinds were limited and unsustainable.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Reaffirmation of the strength of the upside resistance with the formation of an upside stall top mustache.

The recent push low was not broken, but follow-up buying was thin.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily trend is flat after testing the upper limit of the holding area and falling back

The next condition is a new high at the closing price and the establishment of a new high accompanied by volume.

impression

Event-driven upswings were confirmed, but propulsion was lackluster.

Until the next material, the focus is likely to be on price action in the midst of the traffic

trade observations

Avoid chasing highs. Short-term selling after confirming return stall will work.

Push to pick up shallow, but set gains in small increments.

checklist

Can the upper mustache high be clearly exceeded and established?

Will the daily trend be maintained above the breakpoint?

Will the direction of U.S. interest rates and stocks support continued dollar selling?