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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP, revised) [y/y] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP, revised) [annualized] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | July Balance of Payments, Balance of Trade |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Trade Balance (US$) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Trade Balance (RMB) |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | July Industrial Production [month-on-month] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | July Industrial Production [yoy] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
News
Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba announces his resignation.
Today's Outlook
This week, USDJPY started the week with a large window of weakness against the yen amid market instability following Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation announcement. While the price movement is conscious of filling the window, it is still embedded in the downtrend trend after Chairman Powell's comments, and the sense of direction is limited. The market is still in a range in the short term under the situation where political risk and monetary policy speculation are intertwined, but the market is sensitive to the comments of key figures and related news reports.
EURUSD was selling off the dollar after the previous day's U.S. employment data, and temporarily broke above the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's remarks. However, the upward breakout was almost entirely left as a whisker, as the sellers returned to the market afterwards. The market is now in a phase in which the upward pressure is likely to be felt. The market continues to search for a sense of direction based on U.S. economic indicators and statements by key figures.
GBPUSD sold off the dollar following the previous day's U.S. employment data and temporarily returned to the rising wave level after Chairman Powell's remarks. However, selling subsequently intensified, leaving a long upper whisker on the daily chart. Although the upward pressure is easily recognized, the overall trend is seen to be in line with the descending channel, and the sense of direction is limited.
AUDUSD was temporarily higher as dollar selling prevailed following the previous day's U.S. employment data, but was subsequently pushed down by selling, leaving a long upper whisker on the daily chart. Although the upward pressure is still felt, on a 4-hourly basis, the market is still within an upward channel. Therefore, the market continues to search for direction based on U.S. economic indicators and Australian factors.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
In the European market, selling prevailed from the beginning of the day, and the price stopped once at a psychological milestone just before the window filling. The subsequent recovery was limited, and the market continued to lack a sense of direction until the first half of the New York session. However, toward the end of the session, dollar selling strengthened again, and as a result, the market closed the session with the window filled. Overall, the day was led by the downside from Europe, while the attack and defense around the milestone were sorted out in the second half of New York.
In the European market, buying was seen early on, and the trend continued into the New York hours. In particular, additional buying was observed in New York, and the price movement remained firm throughout the day. The daily chart also showed a clear upward breakout of the entity portion, breaking through the level that had previously been in the consciousness of the market. As a result, it was a day in which the upward wave that had been continuing since Chairman Powell's remarks on March 22 was confirmed to have been technically consolidated.
Buying dominated the European markets from the beginning of the day, and the trend continued into the New York hours. In the background, investors were aware of the past decline due to the long-term interest rate shock, and the degree of recovery from that level was the focus of attention. The daily chart showed a clear return of the entity portion, indicating the strength of the correction to the downside. Overall, the day confirmed the upward momentum.
The buying trend was dominated by the Tokyo session and continued into the European session. On the daily chart, the price exceeded the resistance with its substance, clearly breaking through the level that had been considered so far. As a result, a double bottom was completed technically, confirming the upward trend on both short-term and long-term time frames.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
Yen started lower after Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation announcement, but moves were made with a view to filling the window.
Still within the downtrend after Chairman Powell's remarks
Mixed political risks and monetary policy speculation limit direction
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 147.50 to 149.50
Beware of window-filling test and selling pressure at higher prices
tactics
The basic idea is to stand with range rotation in mind.
Consider buying at the lower limit and selling back at the upper limit.
trigger
A move above around 148.80 would confirm short-term buying interest.
Watch for a downside test below 147.50.
Timing of key figures' statements and U.S. economic indicators in Tokyo time is key.
override condition
If the price develops a clear break above 149.80 and becomes established
If significant selling pressure appears with a break below 147.00
risk event
Japan Politics-related News Coverage
U.S. economic indicators (consumer prices and employment-related statistics)
Statements by Major Central Bank Officials
Position Management
Maintain normal size positions and limit risk
The profit target is adjusted in steps of 30-50 pips.
Losses are based on clear exits outside the expected range.
checklist
Check for sudden news flow due to political risk
Track U.S. interest rate trends and the U.S. dollar index
Watch for window filling and subsequent price movements
Market Summary
Dollar sales in response to U.S. employment data temporarily pushed the U.S. dollar above the rising wave.
After that, the upward movement was pushed back and remained as a whisker.
A sense of direction is being sought with the awareness of the heaviness of the upper price.
Assumed range
Assuming price movement around 1.0800 to 1.0950 area.
Upside pressure and downside buybacks may remain in equilibrium
tactics
The basic idea is to stand with range rotation in mind.
Flexible combination of short-term return selling and push-buying
trigger
A break above 1.0950 confirms short-term strengthening of the buyback.
Downward test below 1.0800 requires caution.
Triggered by economic indicators and US market trends in European time.
override condition
If the price develops a clear break above 1.1000 and becomes established
If the price falls below 1.0750 and strong selling pressure occurs
risk event
Major economic indicators such as U.S. CPI and retail sales
Remarks by European Central Bank officials
Sudden changes in U.S. long-term interest rates
Position Management
Normal size entry to limit risk
Adjust gains in increments of 20 to 40 pips.
Losses are based on the position outside the expected range
checklist
Check the schedule for the release of major U.S. indices
Understand price movements and liquidity changes during European hours
Watch for upward or downward price movement to take hold.
Market Summary
Dollar sales in response to U.S. employment data temporarily restored the upward wave.
Then selling intensified and formed a long daily upper mustache
Limited sense of direction due to price movement along the descending channel
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 1.2550 - 1.2720
Watch for an equilibrium between heaviness on the upside and buybacks on the downside
tactics
The basic response is based on range rotation
Consider selling on the return near the upper limit and buying on the way down near the lower limit
trigger
Beware of a short-term buyback if 1.2720 is clearly exceeded.
Watch for a downward testing trend below 1.2550.
London time trading trends and U.S. economic indicators triggered
override condition
If the view of upside restraint is broken by consolidation above 1.2750
If strong selling pressure appears below 1.2500
risk event
Major U.S. economic indicators (CPI and retail sales)
UK economic data and statements from Bank of England officials
Sudden changes in U.S. interest rates and stock markets
Position Management
Moderate position size and limited risk
The profit target is a gradual adjustment of 30-50 pips.
Losses are based on levels that are clearly outside the expected range
checklist
Confirmation of price movements and volume for London time
Understand U.S. interest rate trends and the U.S. dollar index
Watching to see if the descending channel is maintained or not
Market Summary
Dollar sales temporarily boosted by U.S. jobs report
Then it was pushed down by selling and formed a long upper mustache on a daily basis
Continued to stay within the ascending channel on the 4-hour time frame
Assumed range
Assuming a move around 0.6500 - 0.6630 area.
Watch for a balance between heaviness on the upside and pushback on the downside
tactics
The basic response is based on buying at the push point
Focus on reactions near the lower channel limit and enter in small increments
trigger
A move above 0.6630 would confirm short-term buying interest.
Downward test below 0.6500 requires caution.
Triggered by Australian related indicators in Tokyo time and US data in NY time
override condition
If the price develops a clear break above 0.6660 and becomes established
If the price falls below 0.6470 and strong selling pressure occurs
risk event
Australian economic indicators (employment-related and consumption data)
Major U.S. economic indicators and interest rate trends
Resource price fluctuations and China-related news
Position Management
Keep in mind smaller size and dispersed entries.
Adjust the profit margin in steps of 20 to 40 pips.
Losses are set based on levels outside the expected range
checklist
Confirmation of Australian economic indicator releases and market reaction
Understand the correlation between changes in resource prices and the Australian dollar
Watching to see if the upward channel is maintained
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
The day was led lower in the European hour and closed with the window filled in late New York.
summary
The dollar continued to move slightly higher in Tokyo hours, and dollar selling prevailed from European hours.
The rebound was limited in the first half of the NY session, and the sell-off strengthened again in the second half of the session to achieve window filling.
The price action focused on the psychological milestone.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time remained directionless around 147.80.
In the European market, the selling went all the way down to around 147.00 at one point.
Selling resumed in late New York, reaching levels that filled the week's first window.
Background & Materials
Risk aversion was seen in the early part of the session due to the weekend's U.S. interest rate developments.
In European hours, dollar selling tipped in favor of the dollar, with the addition of softness in the stock market.
In the second half of the New York session, downward pressure increased due to a combination of investor position adjustments.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
A break below 147.50 on the 4-hour time frame strengthened downside awareness.
After the window was filled toward the end of the day, the market continued to show a downward pressure.
The short-term EMA remained downward, confirming a slow return.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
On the daily basis, the entity fell below the milestone, reaffirming the range from the second half of August.
The 200-day moving average is flat, making it difficult to determine a medium-term trend.
The market is still adjusting from its highs and is aware of the heaviness of the upside.
impression
Price movements from Europe to late New York reflected the market's caution over the psychological milestone.
The achievement of the window filling was a short-term break, but the sense of direction is still limited.
The market remained in an atmosphere of waiting for materials, and investors remained cautious.
trade observations
The sharp drop in the European hour provided an opportunity for short-term selling, while the rebound phase in the first half of New York was more difficult.
Trading with an awareness of the attack and defense at the milestone was important, especially the response around 147.00 was key.
Overall, the day required a flexible response in preparation for sudden changes.
checklist
To check reactions at psychological milestones.
Watch the direction of the short-term EMA and the daily entity.
Determine the linkage with U.S. interest rates and the stock market.
looking back
A day of continued buying from Europe and overlapping buying in New York led to a break through the level on the daily basis.
summary
The market remained small in Tokyo hours, and buying was predominant from European hours.
The trend remained unbroken during the New York session, and the market remained firm with additional buying.
The substance has broken above on the daily chart, confirming the consolidation of the upward wave.
Today's Price Movement
In Tokyo hours, the pair remained stalemated around 1.1050.
Buying was stronger in European markets, with the pair breaking through 1.1100.
Buying continued into the New York hours and remained high until the end of the day.
Background & Materials
There was a relative sense of calm in U.S. interest rates and preference for European currencies.
Stability in the stock market also supported risk appetite and led to dollar selling pressure.
The trend since Chairman Powell's remarks on March 22 was once again confirmed.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 4-hourly price broke above the recent highs with substance, indicating a buying advantage.
The short-term EMA remained upward, underscoring the pushback at the pushpoint.
The price remained at a high level through the New York time, confirming the strength of the short-term tone.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
On the daily basis, the move to break through resistance was organized, taking over the rising wave of the 22nd.
The 200-day moving average has maintained an upward trend, providing medium-term support.
Market participants were aware of the fact that the long-term upper range limit had been breached.
impression
The sustained buying from Europe to New York reflected the risk appetite environment.
The clear daily breakout to the upside was meant to confirm the technical milestone.
On the other hand, the material side of the market was limited and the overall market remained cautious.
trade observations
The push from Europe was relatively easy to take.
Selling pressure at the highs remained weak through the New York hours, and maintaining a buy position was effective.
However, during the rapid growth phase, the decision to take profits was important, and a solid response was required rather than riding the momentum.
checklist
Continued confirmation of the entity's upward movement on a daily basis.
Keep an eye on the direction of the short-term EMA and the push level
Confirm linkage with U.S. interest rates and stock market trends.
looking back
Buying from Europe continued, and buying also prevailed in New York, and the day returned to substance on an intraday basis.
summary
Tokyo time was directionless and the mood was one of wait-and-see.
Buying was ahead as we entered European hours, and the trend remained uninterrupted in New York.
The daily substance regained some of the decline and upward momentum was recognized.
Today's Price Movement
The Tokyo session remained slightly above the 1.2700 area.
Buying was stronger in European markets, and a move above 1.2750 was confirmed.
Buying continued during the New York session, with the pair holding highs around 1.2800 at the end of the day.
Background & Materials
The market remained aware of the declining phase after the long-term interest rate shock.
The recovery from that reaction was noted and supported the trend of strong buying.
The resilience of the stock market also boosted investor sentiment.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
A clear breakthrough of the downtrend line was seen on the 4-hour time frame.
The short-term EMA turned upward, confirming the rebound at the push point.
It remained high through the New York hours, confirming the short-term upward trend.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
On a daily basis, the entity has rolled back the decline after the long-term interest rate shock.
The market remained above the 200-day moving average, indicating medium-term stability.
Market participants were aware of the rebound from long-term support levels.
impression
The buying trend from Europe to New York reflected the market's attempt to overcome past declines.
The intraday return stabilized investor sentiment and supported trading.
On the other hand, background material is limited and the market remains cautious.
trade observations
The pushback in the European hour was relatively straightforward.
In the NY session, the market continued to move higher and it was difficult to determine whether to take profits or make new entries.
While trading along the major currents was effective, caution was necessary to guard against sudden short-term fluctuations.
checklist
Continued confirmation of daily return of substance
Watch for short-term EMA to maintain upward movement.
To confirm the linkage between long-term interest rate trends and the stock market
looking back
Buying prevailed from Tokyo to Europe, and the momentum slowed down in the second half of New York, but the daily resistance was broken through for the day.
summary
Buying was led from Tokyo time, and the trend continued in Europe.
The upward momentum calmed down as we entered the New York hours, but there were no signs of a breakdown.
The daily resistance was exceeded by the substance and technical consolidation was underway.
Today's Price Movement
The Tokyo session was bought around 0.6700, and the trend was slowly increasing.
In the European market, buying was further intensified, and the pair moved above 0.6750.
The rise paused in NY hours and remained high around 0.6760.
Background & Materials
Stability related to the Chinese economy supported a preference for the Australian dollar.
The calm in U.S. interest rate trends also triggered dollar selling.
Overall, risk appetite led to buying of the Australian dollar.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
On the 4-hour time frame, the upward breakout after the double bottom formation was confirmed.
The short-term EMA turned upward and a rebound at the pushpoint prevailed.
The second half of the New York session remained high, indicating the strength of the short-term tone.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily breakthrough of resistance clearly exceeded the long-conscious level.
The completion of the double bottom signaled a medium-term trend turnaround.
The maintenance of the 200-day moving average upward is providing medium-term support.
impression
Price action from Tokyo to New York confirmed the persistence of the Australian dollar buying.
The daily break above the entity provided reassurance to investor sentiment.
However, the material side was limited, indicating continued heavy reliance on external factors.
trade observations
The push from Tokyo to Europe was an easy phase to take.
During the NY session, it was difficult to determine whether to take profits and new entries at the highs.
It was important to manage the position after confirming the milestone breakthrough.
checklist
Confirming the continuation of the daily resistance breakthrough.
Keep an eye on the short-term EMA and the movement after the double bottom formation.
Check US interest rates and Chinese economic indicators as external factors.
FX Diary