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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI) [yoy] |
Graph Display
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Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Producer Price Index (PPI) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Wholesale Price Index (PPI) [MoM] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Wholesale Price Index (PPI) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Wholesale Price Index (PPI Core Index, excl. Food & Energy) [MoM] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Wholesale Price Index (PPI Core Index, excl. Food & Energy) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Could not retrieve graph data.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day, the dollar temporarily tested the lows, but was bought back at the lower levels and closed the day on a rebound. The momentum of dollar selling was limited as the US interest rate trend and stock prices calmed down. While it is conceivable that the market will continue to test the downside today, it is unclear whether the market will make a major move lower in the absence of clear-cut materials. In the short term, market participants are likely to continue to look at U.S. economic indicators and comments by key figures to determine their trading decisions.
The previous day, the EURUSD was aware of the weakness in European economic indicators, which confirmed the weakness on the upside. Combined with the trend in U.S. interest rates, dollar buying prevailed and the euro temporarily softened. Today, it will remain to be seen whether buying will continue on the back of European economic indicators and U.S. economic releases.
The previous day, GBPUSD confirmed the upward pressure on the GBPUSD, as investors were aware of the UK's economic concerns and uncertainty about the interest rate outlook. The relative advantage of U.S. interest rates made it easy to buy the dollar, which was restrained on the upside. However, a certain amount of buying support was also seen at lower levels, and some may see this as a good opportunity to buy on the downside. Today, we will keep a close eye on UK economic indicators and US events to see if the buying trend strengthens.
The previous day saw the AUDUSD confirm its upside strength. The return of the AUDUSD was limited as the U.S. dollar remained resilient on the back of interest rate expectations. However, there is a certain degree of buying interest at lower levels, and there is still a view that this is a good opportunity to buy on the downside. Today, we will keep an eye on the U.K. economic indicators and U.S. events to see if the buying trend strengthens.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
The overall mood today was one of wait-and-see. Immediately after the release of the index, dollar selling prevailed and temporarily pushed the market lower, but buyers returned to the market at lower levels as stock prices and interest rates settled down. Thereafter, the price range was limited due to a lack of direction due to a lack of materials. The price remained in a narrow range centered around the upper 147-yen level until the end of the session. Short-term technicals also showed a receding sense of overheating, making it difficult to chase the price higher or lower.
Today, there was limited material as investors remained wary of European and U.S. economic indicators and key figures' statements, and U.S. interest rate trends settled down. In the early phase of the session, the price tested the downside several times, but bounced back to the downside. On the other hand, the upside was heavy just before the previous day's high, and aggressive buying was not widespread. In the end, the price remained in a slight fluctuation around 1.17, giving the impression of a firming of the bottom. There was little sense of direction, and the price movement was quiet until the end of the day.
From London to early New York, the pound made several attempts to the downside but failed to break out, indicating that the bottom was firmly in place. The pound once entered a downside phase as dollar selling prevailed following the release of U.S. economic indicators, but stalled in the second half of New York, giving back most of the gains and becoming almost insubstantial on a daily basis.
In Tokyo, buying was ahead of the market, but the dollar was sluggish in Europe. However, after the release of the index in New York, dollar selling prevailed and the pair tested the upside again. As a result, the pair slightly renewed the previous day's high and remained in a high price zone at the end of the session.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day, USDJPY tested the lows at one point, but closed in a rebound with buybacks at lower levels.
Dollar sales were limited and lacked a sense of direction as investors became aware of the stability of U.S. interest rates and stock prices.
There is a possibility of a test to the downside today, but the lack of materials continues to make it difficult to see any major movement.
Assumed range
The area around 147.00 is likely to be a downside guide.
The upper price range is considered to be up to around 147.80.
It is likely that the market will remain mainly within a range as we wait for materials.
tactics
The basic policy is short-term trading based on range rotation.
Consider buying on the downside and selling on the upside.
Unless there is a clear break, small incremental tactics are seen as effective.
trigger
A clear break above 147.80 would be a catalyst for a short-term move higher.
A break below 147.00 could strengthen the downward trend.
Be prepared for sudden fluctuations by paying attention to U.S. economic indicators and the time of key figures' statements.
override condition
If the price settles below 147.00, the push-back scenario is likely to be negated.
Conversely, if it settles above 147.80, return selling tactics are unlikely to work.
If there is a move significantly outside the range, the strategy needs to be restructured.
risk event
Revised U.S. inflation-related indicators and employment statistics.
Statements from Fed officials could influence interest rate observations.
Abrupt changes in the stock market and commodity markets can also affect the exchange rate.
Position Management
Lot size is set lower than usual.
The profit margin should be 20 to 30 pips, and not greedy.
Losses are mechanically executed at levels that are clearly outside the assumed range.
checklist
Is there a clear awareness of the range level between 147.00 and 147.80?
Are you aware of the schedule of index releases and key figures' statements?
Are position sizes and risk tolerances adjusted in advance?
Market Summary
The previous day, EURUSD confirmed the weakness of the European indicators and confirmed the heaviness of the upside.
The euro temporarily weakened as dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of U.S. interest rate trends
Today, the situation continues to search for direction based on European economic indicators and U.S. economic releases.
Assumed range
Lower price is likely to be around 1.1680
Movement to the upside is expected to be up to around 1.1750
In the absence of major material, the trend is likely to be mainly in this range
tactics
The basic policy is to buy and sell in the short term with an awareness of range rotation.
Consider buying on the downside and selling on the upside
Until there is a sense of direction, do not get greedy and focus on small initiatives.
trigger
A clear break above 1.1750 is likely to increase buying interest.
A break below 1.1680 could increase selling pressure.
Keep an eye on the release times of European economic indicators and U.S. events.
override condition
If it settles below 1.1680, the push-back scenario is likely to be negated
Conversely, if it settles above 1.1750, return selling tactics are less effective
If we continue to move out of range, we'll need to restructure our tactics.
risk event
Reports on ECB-related statements and policies
U.S. inflation-related indicators and employment-related revisions
Sudden fluctuations in the stock market or commodity markets may spill over into the exchange rate
Position Management
Set the lot size small to limit risk.
Execute interest gains as early as 20 to 30 pips.
Losses are taken mechanically at levels outside the expected range.
checklist
Are the range levels of 1.1680 and 1.1750 confirmed?
Are you aware of the scheduled release of European and U.S. economic indicators?
Are position sizes and risk tolerances adjusted in advance?
Market Summary
GBPUSD confirmed the previous day's upward pressure on the GBPUSD due to concerns about the UK economy and uncertainty about the interest rate outlook
The relative advantage of U.S. interest rates made it easier to buy the dollar, and the upside was restrained.
On the other hand, there was a certain amount of buying support at lower prices, and some saw it as a good opportunity to buy at the push point.
Assumed range
Lower price is likely to be around 1.3500
Movement to the upside will be aware up to around 1.3585.
Mainly expected to remain in this range in the absence of major material
tactics
The basic short-term stance is to buy at the push of the button.
Buy cautiously in lower price ranges and prioritize gains in higher price ranges.
Return selling will be limited to the phase in which the failure of an upward breakout is confirmed.
trigger
A clear break above 1.3585 would trigger stronger buying momentum
A break below 1.3500 would increase selling pressure and make a downward move more likely.
Time of UK economic indicators and US events are short-term volatile factors
override condition
If the price falls below 1.3500 and settles as is, push-back tactics are likely to be negated.
Conversely, if it stabilizes above 1.3585, a return strategy is unlikely to work.
Sustained movement out of the range would require a rethink of strategy.
risk event
Release of UK inflation-related indicators and employment statistics
Market focus on U.S. interest rate-related data and key figures' statements
Fluctuations in the stock market and commodity prices may spill over into the exchange rate
Position Management
Limit risk by setting lot sizes conservatively.
Execute gains flexibly, with a target of 20 to 30 pips.
Losses are taken mechanically at levels outside the expected range.
checklist
Are the range levels of 1.3500 and 1.3585 confirmed?
Are you aware of key economic indicators and scheduled events in the UK and US?
Are position size and stop-loss rules set in advance?
Market Summary
AUDUSD confirmed the previous day's upside from the dollar's firmness on the back of U.S. interest rate expectations
The return of the Australian dollar was limited and temporarily sluggish.
On the other hand, there is a certain degree of buying interest at lower prices, and there are still those who see this as a good opportunity to buy at the push of a button.
Assumed range
Lower price is likely to be around 0.6550
The upper price trend is expected to move up to around 0.6620
Likely to remain mainly within a range.
tactics
Take a short-term stance based on push-buy
Buy cautiously in lower price ranges and prioritize gains in higher price ranges.
Return selling will be limited to the phase that confirms the failure of an upward breakout.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6620 could increase buying interest
Watch for a phase where selling pressure will prevail if the price breaks below 0.6550.
Attention should be paid to the release of U.S. economic indicators and the time of key figures' statements
override condition
If the price settles below 0.6550, the push-back scenario is likely to be negated
Conversely, if it stabilizes above 0.6620, a return strategy is unlikely to work.
If the movement continues to be far outside the expected range, a review of tactics is necessary.
risk event
U.S. inflation-related indicators and employment-related data releases
Trends in Australian economic indicators and statements by RBA officials
Fluctuations in stock and resource prices may affect foreign exchange rates
Position Management
Limit risk by setting lot sizes conservatively.
Execute profit taking in steps of 20 to 30 pips.
Losses are taken mechanically at levels outside the expected range.
checklist
Are you aware of the range levels of 0.6550 and 0.6620?
Are you aware of key economic indicators and scheduled events in the U.S. and Australia?
Are position size and stop-loss rules set in advance?
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
Small changes centered in the upper 147-yen range as buyers returned after downward pressure while awaiting materials.
summary
Lack of direction, bickering in a range during the day
The lower area is aware of the 147.00 area and the upper area is weighed around 147.50-147.70.
Waiting for events, no rush to turnover, shallow price range
Today's Price Movement
Temporary downside due to dollar selling immediately after the index, but quickly recovered with buying at lower levels
The pair continued to move back and forth between Europe and New York, converging around 147.10-147.60.
No breakthrough was seen at the end of the day, and volume thinned out toward the end of the day.
Background & Materials
Continued caution about U.S. inflation-related results and key figures' statements limited interest rate swings
Calm stock prices suppressed risk-averse yen buying, making it difficult for dollar selling to spread.
Lack of new materials ahead of events in the second half of the week and a wait-and-see attitude prevails
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Immediate support is around 147.00 with more lower whiskers to buy back in.
Volume is the key to an upside breakout as there is a depth of return selling around 147.50-147.70.
Oscillator overheating recedes and the VWAP area continues to be attacked
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Bias is neutral at 146.30-148.70 range continuation on the 4-hour time frame
Convergence of moving averages is progressing and external material is needed for trend generation
Watching to see if the cutback to higher highs can be resolved or if a new low can be avoided
impression
Focus on pre-event position adjustments and watch out for sudden headline swings
Narrow price range but easy to have a whisker during thin board time and limit price management is important.
Prioritize level and risk management over betting on direction
trade observations
In the range rotation, open interest is light, and profit is chopped into small pieces, with 10 to 25 pips as a guide.
Losses are mechanically executed when support is broken or upper resistance is breached.
Aiming for a break is subject to confirmation of the confirming leg and accompanying volume.
checklist
Have you figured out the 147.00 and 147.50-147.70 bands?
Have you checked the time of the next business day's indicators and key figures' statements?
Have you fixed the position size and stop-loss range in advance?
looking back
Several attempts to the downside were made, but the downside was accepted and the price ended up in small movements around 1.17
summary
Limited materials and lack of direction
Selling continuity is weak and returns are limited and range-bound
Lack of active positions waiting for the next event.
Today's Price Movement
Early in the European morning, the market started weak and there was a test of the downside.
Buyers returned to the market at lower prices, but were unable to extend, and the market shifted to a traffic pattern.
Price range was limited as the price converged around 1.17 by the close.
Background & Materials
Caution ahead of European and U.S. economic indicators and key figures' statements
Small swings in U.S. interest rates make it difficult to determine the direction of the dollar
Settling of risk assets curbs currency volatility
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The balance is neutral, with downside and upside restraints coexisting.
Selling is likely to occur before the previous day's high and buying is likely to occur near the recent low.
Turnover slows as more people watch the market near the center of the range
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The market continues to remain in a holding range, and it is difficult to see a clear trend.
Range expansion room depending on materials in the phase of waiting for the attack and defense of the milestone
Emphasis on confirming the closing price base to avoid damashi in case of sudden changes
impression
The ground is prone to alternating manifestations of short-term short-covering and push-buying
While we are waiting for information, the board is thin and we need to be prepared for instantaneous swings.
trade observations
Reversals in a range are executed mechanically with a small price range.
Gains are set shallow and losses are tightened at prior levels.
Aiming for a break, do not rush to follow until price firming is confirmed.
checklist
Have you identified key indicators and scheduled statements for the next business day?
Did you note the previous day's high and recent low levels?
Have you set your position size and stop-loss range in advance?
looking back
The pair continued to test the downside from London to early New York, but was unable to break out and bounced back and forth in the mid-1.35s.
summary
Selling of the dollar immediately after the U.S. index temporarily pushed the pound lower, but buybacks prevailed at the lower levels.
In the second half of the New York session, the momentum stalled and the upside was trimmed, leaving the daily chart with only a small substance.
In general, a tight range was maintained with little sense of direction as the market waited for materials.
Today's Price Movement
The London session saw a test of the 1.3520 area and a rebound back to around 1.3560.
The pair tried to return to the 1.3560 level early in the New York session, but the upside was limited and the break above the 1.3560 level was heavy.
The price stalled at the end of the day, converging to the 1.3530 level, and the intraday range was limited.
Background & Materials
Swings in interest rate observations in response to U.S. inflation-related results tied the dollar's direction.
On the UK side, extreme risk aversion was receding, although the interest rate outlook remained uncertain.
Small swings in stocks and bonds and controlled exchange rate volatility
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Support is around 1.3510 to 1.3500 with more lower whiskers to buy.
Resistance is around 1.3580-1.3585, which is likely to be conscious of a return sale
Overheated short-term oscillators receded and the focus was on the attack and defense around the VWAP
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Bias is near neutral at 1.3500-1.3650 holding area for 4 hours.
Moving averages are converging and external material is needed to resume trend
Do not rush to determine the break until the band is confirmed on a closing basis
impression
The momentum of the downward push is slowing, but the upside is not light, and the level game is likely to continue in the short term.
During times when the board is thin, it is easy for beards to appear, and care must be taken to manage limit prices and execution slips.
trade observations
Based on range rotation, profit margins are chopped flexibly at 15 to 25 pips.
Stop-losses will be executed mechanically when milestones are reached, such as below 1.3500 and above 1.3585.
Break targeting is a delayed follow-up subject to a definite leg and volume accompaniment.
checklist
Have you identified the times of major indicators and key figures' statements for the next business day?
Did you update the 1.3500 and 1.3585 bands as the latest milestones?
Have position sizes and stop-loss ranges been fixed in advance to avoid deviations?
looking back
Bought in Tokyo but sluggish in Europe, resurfaced after the New York indices, slightly renewed the previous day's highs, and maintained the highs.
summary
Directionality is limited as we wait for the event, but the lower price seems relatively firm.
Small swings in U.S. interest rates make the dollar vulnerable to a weakening environment
Calm resource prices and stock prices helped support the Australian dollar
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo moves slowly higher to around 0.6600
The price stalled in Europe and pushed back to the 0.6590 level.
After the NY index, it tested around 0.6620 and closed at the previous day's high.
Background & Materials
Dollar selling prevails as U.S. inflation-related results reaffirm expectations of interest rate cuts
RBA's cautious stance and China-related stability support the Australian dollar
Tight price range due to lack of new material ahead of late-week events
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Support is at 0.6580 and 0.6550, a zone where pushiness is likely to increase
Resistance is at 0.6620 and 0.6640, a zone where return sales are likely to occur
Oscillator overheating recedes and the focus is on attacking and defending around the VWAP
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The bias is neutral at 0.6520-0.6680 with a continuation of the holding at 0.6520-0.6680.
Convergence of moving averages is progressing and volume and external materials are needed to break out
Focus on confirmation of band breakout on a closing price basis and prioritize avoidance of damashi.
impression
A day when trading with an awareness of levels rather than trends is more likely to work
Prepare for thin time whiskers and watch for changes in board conditions and spreads
trade observations
Range rotation is the basis of the range rotation, and the profit margin is flexibly chopped at 15 to 25 pips.
Losses are mechanically executed at milestones such as below 0.6550 and above 0.6640.
Break following is delayed participation subject to a definite leg and tick thickness
checklist
Did you check the time of the next business day's U.S. index and key figures' statements?
Have the bands at 0.6580 and 0.6620 been updated as the latest milestones?
Have you fixed position sizes and allowable losses in advance?
FX Diary