Market Summary

The strength of interest rate cut speculation is in the spotlight ahead of the release of the U.S. inflation index.

The dollar/yen remained directionless against the backdrop of BOJ rate hike speculation and Japanese political uncertainty.

The previous day was mainly range trading in the low to mid 147 yen range, with no clear breakout.

Assumed range

Around 146.80 - 147.80 area.

The upside is 147.75-148.00 and the downside is the support zone at 146.30-146.50.

Keep in mind that the market will remain within a range, but be prepared for changes in key indicators.

tactics

The basic situation is to assume a range rotation.

In a move to test lower prices, consider a push to the upper ¥146 level.

When approaching the upside, we need to be aware of the need to weave in and out of return sales and take profits in small increments.

trigger

A break above 147.80 could strengthen short-term buying momentum.

A break below 146.30 would require caution for weakness.

The release of major inflation indicators such as US CPI and PPI are likely to trigger.

override condition

If a clear break above 148.00 is established, the range strategy is negated.

Conversely, if the price settles well below 146.00, the tactic should be modified.

The scenario is reset in the event of unexpected policy statements or intervening measures.

risk event

U.S. CPI and PPI results.

News reports and statements by key figures regarding the Bank of Japan's policy outlook.

Political developments in Japan and the resulting change in monetary policy stance.

Position Management

Assuming trading within a range, position sizes will be kept lower than usual.

The profit margin should be around 20 to 40 pips, and should be taken without any greed.

Stop-losses should be placed outside of the expected range to avoid excessive unrealized losses.

checklist

Have you checked the US CPI release time and forecast?

Are you aware of key support and resistance levels?

Are position sizes and stop loss lines set in advance?

Market Summary

Investor confidence in Europe declines, causing uncertainty about the economic outlook.

ECB poised to keep interest rates unchanged; markets to focus on Lagarde's remarks

With the price indexes in the U.S. on the horizon, the strength of interest rate cut speculation is influencing the direction of the euro.

Assumed range

Around 1.1590 - 1.1780

The upside is 1.1775-1.1800 and the downside is the support zone at 1.1590-1.1620.

Prepare for a break after the event, while keeping within the range as the basic scenario

tactics

For the time being, the basic tactic is range rotation.

Consider push-buying in the 1.1600s and sell back around 1.1770.

Focus on short-term trades and take profits in small increments to prepare for sharp fluctuations after the event.

trigger

If it breaks above 1.1780, buyback may strengthen

Beware of a move lower if it breaks below 1.1590

US CPI and PPI results and ECB President's remarks likely to be key triggers

override condition

Range strategy will be nullified if a clear break above 1.1800 is established

Conversely, if the price falls significantly below 1.1550 and settles downward, a review of tactics is necessary.

Reset scenario in the event of unexpected key personnel statements or monetary policy changes

risk event

ECB President Lagarde's press conference after the ECB Governing Council meeting

Publication of U.S. CPI and PPI

Release of investor confidence and economic indicators in the European region

Position Management

Adjust position size sparingly, assuming small increments within the range

Aim for a profit margin of about 20 to 40 pips to ensure a steady accumulation of profits.

Stop-losses are set outside the range to limit risk in the event of sudden fluctuations.

checklist

Did you check the time of the U.S. CPI release and the expected value?

Are you aware of key support and resistance levels?

Are position sizes and stop-loss lines set in advance?

Market Summary

Inflation remains high in the U.K., leading to widespread belief that the start of BoE rate cuts will be pushed back

In the U.S., PPI and CPI are coming up, and the strength of interest rate cut speculation is likely to influence the direction of the U.S. dollar

The previous day, the pound-dollar tested the downside, but showed firmness in the low 1.34s

Assumed range

Around 1.3430 - 1.3600 area

The upside is 1.3600 and the downside is the support band at 1.3420-1.3450.

A situation where we assume the possibility of continued trading within a range.

tactics

Basically, the trading is based on the assumption of range rotation and taking advantage of upper and lower levels.

Consider push-buy at around 1.3450 and sell back at 1.3580-1.3600

Take small gains from a short-term perspective and prepare for a sense of direction after the event.

trigger

A clear break above 1.3600 could strengthen the buyback

A break below 1.3420 would be a conscious pressure to the downside.

US PPI and CPI releases expected to be the main triggers

override condition

If the price settles above 1.3620, the range strategy will be invalidated

Assumptions need to be revised even if the price falls well below 1.3400 and settles

Review tactics in the event of unexpected material, such as surprise statements by policy makers

risk event

U.S. PPI and CPI results

UK inflation-related indicators and retail sales trends

Reports on statements and policy stances of BoE officials

Position Management

Moderate position size and limit risk until the event passes.

Priority is given to accumulation of profits, with a target of 20 to 40 pips.

Set stop-losses outside the expected range and avoid large reversals

checklist

Have you checked the US PPI and CPI release times and market expectations?

Are you aware of key support and resistance levels?

Are position sizes and stop-loss lines set in advance?

Market Summary

Australia Reports Improved Business Activity, but Consumer Sentiment Weakens

In the U.S., the PPI and CPI are coming up, and the strength of interest rate cut speculation is influencing the overall dollar situation

The previous day, the AUD/USD was briefly higher at around 0.66, but fell back at daily resistance

Assumed range

Around 0.6550 - 0.6640

The upside is 0.6625-0.6640 and the downside is 0.6550-0.6570.

Range based, but be prepared for movement after the release of the index

tactics

For the time being, range rotation is the main scene.

Consider push-buying around 0.6560 and sell back around 0.6630.

Focus on small gains and be flexible to changes in direction after the release of an index

trigger

A clear break above 0.6640 would indicate upward momentum

A break below 0.6550 could increase downward pressure

US PPI and CPI expected to be key triggers

override condition

If it settles above 0.6660, the range strategy is disabled

Conversely, a tactical correction is also necessary when the value falls well below 0.6530 and becomes established.

Review scenarios in the event of sudden keynote statements or policy changes.

risk event

U.S. PPI and CPI results

Trends in Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations

Fluctuations in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices

Position Management

Moderate position size and limit risk prior to events

Priority is given to short-term accumulation of profits, with a target of 15 to 30 pips.

Losses are placed outside the expected range to limit losses in the event of sudden fluctuations.

checklist

Have you checked the US PPI and CPI release times and forecasts?

Are you aware of the schedule of Australian and China-related indicators?

Do you have position size and stop-loss settings in advance?

looking back

USDJPY slightly off the previous day's lows on dollar selling following the U.S. index

summary

Rise in U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Signals Weakness in Labor Market

Inflation indicators remained subdued, and the market remained concerned about interest rate cuts.

USDJPY tested the upside in the European hour, but stalled and hit a new low in the NY hour.

Today's Price Movement

The pair was bought during European hours and rose to around 147.90.

Tried Pivot R2 but it did not lead to a move above 148.00

Dollar sales strengthened in response to U.S. indicators during the New York session, falling to around 147.20

Background & Materials

Increase in U.S. unemployment insurance claims was a factor in the dollar's sell-off

U.S. inflation indicators calmed down and did not reduce the prospect of interest rate cuts.

On the Japanese side, speculation on policy changes was limited and yen buying was influenced by U.S. indicators

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around 148.00 was strongly perceived as upside resistance

Short-term support near 147.20 stopped the price temporarily.

RSI fell below the neutral zone, indicating short-term selling pressure

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The range of 147.00-148.50 is still in place

A negative daily line was formed, confirming the heaviness of the upside.

The 200-day moving average remains a medium-term indicator

impression

Changes in the U.S. labor market are having a major impact on the direction of the dollar.

Inflation is calming down and interest rate cuts are widely expected.

It is felt that the environment continues to be prone to swing up and down depending on materials

trade observations

The strategy to respond to the upside test in the European hour by selling was effective.

Short-term sell positions worked during the accelerated dollar selling phase in the New York time.

It was necessary to respond flexibly to sudden changes after the release of the index while avoiding grabbing high prices.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule for the release of the U.S. CPI and employment-related indicators?

Are you aware of Pivot and major support and resistance levels?

Are stop-loss settings and position sizes adjusted in advance?

looking back

EURUSD hit the previous day's highs as dollar selling prevailed on the ECB's unchanged and weak U.S. PPI

summary

ECB leaves policy rate unchanged; President Lagarde emphasizes reliance on data

Cautiousness about additional rate cuts provided support for the euro

U.S. PPI came in lower than expected, restraining the dollar's upward movement

Today's Price Movement

The European market continued to move slightly around 1.1700

U.S. indexes were released in the New York time, dollar sales strengthened and turned to the upside

Finally, it closed at the 1.1730 level, slightly above the previous day's high

Background & Materials

ECB did not rush to cut additional interest rates and maintained monetary policy flexibility

In the U.S., PPI results came in below market expectations, boosting expectations of a rate cut

Concerns about geopolitical risks and trade friction were in the background, affecting investor sentiment.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

1.1700 was identified as short-term support.

The 1.1740 area was seen as an upside resistance, and the trend after the breakthrough was watched closely.

RSI moved up from neutral territory, suggesting buying pressure

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The rise was confirmed with substance on the daily basis, extending the upside potential.

The focus was on whether or not to break above the 1.1650-1.1750 range

The slope of the moving average has stabilized and served as medium-term support

impression

ECB and U.S. index results coincided with a short-term trend of dollar selling dominance.

While the underlying tone of the euro was supported, instability remained as the direction of the euro changed depending on materials

Market participants remained focused on event risk

trade observations

European markets were not very active, and there were many situations that were not suitable for short-term trading.

Immediate response was required to sudden price movements after the release of the NY time index.

Earlier decisions to take profits and losses were effective in managing risk.

checklist

Did you check the time of the U.S. CPI release and the expected value?

Are you aware of recent support and resistance?

Are position sizes and stop-loss levels set in advance?

looking back

Weak U.S. PPI led to dollar selling, with GBPUSD hitting both the previous day's low and high

summary

U.S. PPI came in lower than expected, and the dollar's upside was restrained by the prospect of a rate cut.

Inflation and fiscal risks remained a concern in the U.K. as early interest rate cuts are receding

GBPUSD expanded both above and below the previous day's range, widening its price range

Today's Price Movement

The price temporarily fell below 1.3450 during European hours and hit the previous day's low.

Dollar sales strengthened and rose to around 1.3600 following the release of the index in the New York time.

As a result, the previous day's high was also renewed, swinging up and down

Background & Materials

U.S. PPI results fell short of expectations, prompting dollar selling

In the U.K., uncertainty over when the BoE will start cutting rates and inflation fears supported the pound

Market participants moved to make short-term adjustments ahead of the U.S. CPI release

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around 1.3450 was considered as support to the downside.

Upside resistance was seen around 1.3600, suggesting room for a short-term pullback.

RSI tilted slightly toward strength from neutral territory

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The 1.3420-1.3600 range continues to be in focus

The new highs of the previous day on a daily basis have opened up more room for higher prices.

Moving averages provide support, but sustainability remains to be determined

impression

Market environment continues to move significantly depending on U.S. indices

GBPUSD was noticeably searching for a sense of direction while testing the break above and below.

Many of the traders were waiting for the event and ended up responding in the short term.

trade observations

Selling was effective in the move to test the downside in the European hour.

Buying back in the New York hours strengthened and short-term profit-taking decisions were called for.

The importance of position size adjustment was reaffirmed as the price range expanded.

checklist

Did you confirm the time and market forecast for the US CPI release?

Are you aware of key support and resistance levels?

Are position sizes and stop-loss lines set in advance?

looking back

Weak U.S. PPI led to dollar selling, and the AUDUSD hit a new high, much higher than the previous day's highs

summary

U.S. inflation indicators fell short of expectations, weighing on the dollar's upside as the prospect of interest rate cuts became more conscious.

The Australian dollar was easy to buy against the backdrop of rising domestic inflation expectations and other factors.

Australian dollar buying accelerated after the release of the index in the New York time and maintained an upward trend toward the end of the day.

Today's Price Movement

The price continued to move slightly around 0.6620 until European hours

Dollar sales strengthened and rose above 0.6660 in the wake of the index release during the New York session.

The closing price remained in the 0.6660 level and closed higher with substance

Background & Materials

U.S. PPI came in lower than expected, weighing on the dollar on the strength of rate cut speculation

Rising consumer inflation expectations in Australia provided support for the Australian dollar

Demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset has receded as the global mood of risk appetite has strengthened.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 0.6620 area served as recent support.

The price clearly broke above 0.6660, and the market is now aware of the upside potential in the short term.

RSI shifted from neutral to slightly stronger direction

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The rise with substance was confirmed on a daily basis, and the resistance was broken through

In the medium term, the focus is on whether the price will break above the range of 0.6550-0.6670

The moving average is also providing support, and the underlying tone is becoming more stable.

impression

The environment continues to be one in which the dollar's movement is likely to change depending on the results of U.S. indicators

In addition to domestic factors, the Australian dollar's structure is sensitive to the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.

Short-term price action was led by dollar selling, but we need to see if there is continuity

trade observations

We felt that a response to limit position size was effective during the event waiting phase.

Buying near support and taking profits after reaching resistance worked effectively.

Early settlement decisions contributed to risk management when volatility increased after index releases.

checklist

Have you confirmed the scheduled release of the U.S. CPI and the market forecast?

Are you aware of recent support and resistance?

Are position sizes and stop-loss levels set in advance?