Market Summary

U.S. unemployment insurance claims rise, raising awareness of labor market weakness

Inflation indicators remained calm, and the prospect of interest rate cuts remained in the forefront of the public's mind.

USDJPY slightly off its lows as dollar selling prevailed in response to the previous day's indicators

Assumed range

Assume price movement around 146.80-148.00

The downside is likely to be around 146.80 and the upside around 148.00.

Expect amplitude within the range to account for fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on return sales.

Use short-term returns to build positions in stages

If the price continues to fall to new lows, prioritize gains and refrain from following the trend.

trigger

If the pair breaks above 147.90, opportunities for a return sale may be limited

A clear break below 146.80 would likely accelerate selling

Note that volatility increases during the time of U.S. indicators and key figures' statements.

override condition

A close above 147.90 would likely negate a return strategy.

Selling interest also recedes when the short term moving average remains clearly above the short term moving average

Scenario needs to be revised in case of sudden yen selling materials

risk event

U.S. CPI and other inflation-related indicators are about to be released

Beware of the impact of position adjustments due to weekend rebalancing

Geopolitical risks and statements by monetary authorities are also temporary volatility factors

Position Management

Keep position size to 50-70% of normal

Interest rate is set to be in front of 146.80-147.00.

Stop-losses are managed based on a level above 147.90.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule for the release of major U.S. indices?

Are you aware of the recent support at 146.80 and resistance at 148.00?

Do you have a position adjustment plan in place to anticipate fluctuations due to weekend factors?

Market Summary

U.S. CPI in line with expectations, maintaining expectations of a rate cut and limiting the dollar's upside

ECB keeps rates unchanged, Lagarde stresses decision will depend on data

EURUSD ended the day at the previous day's highs as dollar selling prevailed in the NY hour

Assumed range

Assumed range around 1.1660-1.1760

The downside is likely to be around 1.1660 and the upside around 1.1760, a near-term resistance zone.

Assuming an attack within the range while taking into account fluctuations due to weekend flows

tactics

Basic policy is to respond mainly by buying at the push point

Consider entering after confirming a rebound at short-term support

Prioritize gains and avoid excessive chasing when prices are at new highs.

trigger

A clear break above 1.1760 would likely accelerate buying

A break below 1.1660 could lead to more adjustment in the short term

Note that volatility increases during the time of U.S. index releases.

override condition

A push-back strategy is likely to be negated if 1.1640 is maintained at the close below 1.1640.

Buying interest also recedes if the moving average continues to fall below the moving average.

Assumptions will be broken if sudden dollar buying material emerges.

risk event

Note that the market reaction to the U.S. CPI will continue.

Potential for unbalanced flows due to weekend rebalancing to create sudden price movements

Statements from ECB officials could influence the direction of the euro

Position Management

Keep position size to 50-70% of normal

The interest rate should be set before 1.1740 to 1.1760.

Losses should be clearly below 1.1640.

checklist

Did you check the market reaction after the U.S. CPI?

Are you aware of the immediate support 1.1660 and resistance 1.1760?

Do you have a position adjustment plan in place for fluctuations due to weekend factors?

Market Summary

U.S. dollar's upside is being restrained by the increase in U.S. unemployment insurance claims and weak PPI

GBPUSD was little changed in the European hour, but dollar selling strengthened in the NY hour and reached the previous day's highs

Markets are interested in push-buying while being aware of weekend factor flows

Assumed range

Assuming a range centered around 1.3500-1.3600

Lower price is likely to be supported around 1.3500 and higher price is likely to be around 1.3600

Considering the possibility of temporarily increasing volatility due to weekend rebalancing

tactics

The basic policy is to develop based on push-buying.

Consider entry in installments with confirmation of short-term support.

Be aware to limit risk by taking quick gains at high prices

trigger

A clear break above 1.3600 would likely increase buying momentum.

Short-term adjustment is likely to proceed if the price falls below 1.3500

Note that volatility increases during the release of major indices such as the U.S. CPI

override condition

Push-back strategy is likely to be negated if 1.3480 is clearly broken and held at the close

Buyers will also retreat if the medium-term moving average line continues to move below the medium-term moving average line

Assumptions need to be revised in the event of sudden dollar buying factors.

risk event

U.S. CPI release is the main event influencing dollar direction

Flow bias due to weekend rebalancing causes temporary fluctuations

UK economic indicators and fiscal reports could also move the pound

Position Management

Keep position size to 50-70% of normal

The interest rate is set at 1.3580 to 1.3600 front.

Losses should be clearly below 1.3480.

checklist

Did you confirm the time and market forecast for the US CPI release?

Are you aware of the major support 1.3500 and resistance 1.3600?

Do you have a position adjustment plan in place in anticipation of weekend flows?

Market Summary

U.S. PPI came in below expectations, maintaining expectations of a rate cut and restraining the dollar's upward movement.

AUDUSD was small until European hours, but hit the previous day's highs after NY hour's indicators

No clear resistance can be seen even on a daily basis, and the market is now in a phase of searching for a higher price point.

Assumed range

Assuming price movement around 0.6590-0.6680

The downside is likely to be around 0.6600 and the upside around 0.6670, which is the near-term resistance zone.

Considering the possibility of increased volatility even within the range due to rebalancing caused by weekend factors

tactics

Basic policy is to buy at the push point

It is useful to enter the market in stages while confirming short-term support

Be aware of limiting risk by taking quick gains after reaching a higher price.

trigger

A clear break above 0.6670 would likely accelerate buying

A break below 0.6600 would likely strengthen the adjustment in the short term.

Beware of expanding volatility during the time of the release of major indices such as the U.S. CPI

override condition

A push-back strategy is likely to be negated if 0.6580 is maintained at the close below 0.6580.

Buyers will retreat even if the short-term moving averages continue to fall below the moving averages.

Assumptions are broken when events cause sudden dollar buying.

risk event

U.S. CPI release a key event for dollar direction

Flows from weekend rebalancing cause sudden fluctuations

Results of Chinese economic indicators could also be an indirect influencing factor on the Australian dollar

Position Management

Keep position size to 50-70% of normal

The interest rate is set to be in front of 0.6660-0.6680.

Losses should be based on a clear cut below 0.6580.

checklist

Have you checked the US CPI release time and market forecast?

Are you aware of the nearest support at 0.6600 and resistance at 0.6670?

Do you have a position adjustment plan in place for weekend flows?

looking back

The day was dominated by buying of the yen in the European hour and selling of the dollar in the New York hour, with the market swinging up and down.

summary

Decline in U.S. long-term interest rates and domestic political news led to yen buying

Dollar selling accelerates in NY time on the back of indicators and flows

Price movements lacked direction due to weekend rebalancing

Today's Price Movement

The pair pushed lower to 147.80 during the European session.

In New York, dollar selling strengthened and temporarily tested the 147.50 area

Prices continued to swing up and down throughout the day with limited fluctuation.

Background & Materials

U.S. long-term interest rates fell again, weakening support for the dollar.

Yen buying was noted following reports of the LDP presidential election

Adjustments and rebalancing ahead of the weekend amplified market swings

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Recent support confirmed around 147.50

The 148.20 area is a level where upside heaviness is easily recognized

Price movements are likely to remain within a range in the short term

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Lack of direction on daily basis, but moving averages are converging

Shape confirms strengthening of the return trend above 148.50

A level below 146.80 raises medium-term caution to the downside.

impression

While reacting to the material, it was inconclusive from start to finish.

Market participants maintained a wait-and-see attitude amid multiple factors, including interest rates and political factors

Need to identify a sustained trend formation after the event passes

trade observations

Environment in which a range strategy is considered effective in the short term

Thoroughly check support and resistance and be aware of small gains

Careful lot management is important to prepare for irregular price movements due to weekend factors

checklist

Check trends in U.S. long-term interest rates

Note news headlines related to the LDP presidential election.

Wary of irregular flows due to weekend rebalancing

looking back

In the European session, the market tested the previous day's highs, but a decline in U.S. long-term interest rates caused the dollar to sell off and the market swung up and down.

summary

A test of higher prices was seen in the European hour, but the dollar was sold off thereafter.

Weekend factors added to the rebalancing demand, resulting in a lack of directional movement.

The game continued to fluctuate up and down toward the end of the day.

Today's Price Movement

The previous day's highs were tested at one point, but dollar selling prevailed as U.S. long-term interest rates declined.

From Europe to New York, the dollar did not move in one direction, although the weakening trend of the U.S. dollar was noted.

Demand and supply due to rebalancing were also involved, and there was a noticeable lack of directional movement.

Background & Materials

Long-term U.S. interest rates fell again, restraining the dollar's upward movement.

In Europe, no major economic indicators were announced and prices moved amid material difficulties.

Market participants were likely to take a more adjusting stance ahead of the weekend.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market tested the previous day's high, but failed to break above it and fell back.

The 1.1300 area continued to be considered as resistance to the upside.

Lower price was considered as support around 1.1200

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily trend lacks direction but remains within a range

We are in a phase of convergence of moving averages and a sense of energy accumulation

In the medium term, the 1.1200-1.1350 range is likely to continue to be the axis of development

impression

Amid a lack of materials, one gets the impression that U.S. interest rate trends are influencing the direction of the dollar.

The euro itself had little strength or weakness, and movement was mainly against the U.S. dollar.

The market as a whole was characterized by an increasing adjustment ahead of the weekend.

trade observations

In the short term, the failure of the test of higher prices confirmed the heaviness of the upside.

Trading to take advantage of rebounds and falls within the range appeared to be effective.

Considering the weekend factor, a strategy of moderately adjusting position sizes is considered a safe bet.

checklist

Check the trend of long-term U.S. interest rates.

Continued awareness of the 1.1200-1.1350 range

Be aware of the risk of fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing

looking back

In Europe, the dollar temporarily tested the upside, but the dollar was sold off against the backdrop of lower U.S. long-term interest rates, and in New York, the dollar swung up and down due to the index and weekend rebalancing.

summary

The day was characterized by a lack of direction with a strong sense of adjustment with the weekend in mind.

A wide range of movements were confirmed, from the upward test in the European hour to the decline and rebound in the New York hour

Both highs and lows were renewed but closed with unsustainable transition.

Today's Price Movement

In European hours, there was a temporary upward movement, continuing the previous day's trend

Upside remained heavy due to another decline in U.S. interest rates and selling pressure on the dollar

In New York, the index and rebalancing demand were intertwined, leading to a large swing in the market.

Background & Materials

Long-term U.S. interest rates fell again, weighing on the dollar

U.S. economic indicators fell short of market expectations, supporting the dollar sell-off trend.

Rebalancing demand for the weekend shook the market as flows

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Short-term leg showed a sharp drop after a test to the upside and a rebound near the support line

Returns after the lows were limited and remained within a short-term range

Indicators do not show overheating, and the development seeks equilibrium in the swing range

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Both highs and lows on a daily basis, reflecting a lack of direction

The move was unbalanced, with weight at the upper end of the range and firmness at the lower end of the range coexisting.

Weekly trend still shows no major trend and remains sideways

impression

Interest rate trends and rebalancing effects combined to create a mix of fundamentals and flows

While there were notable up and down swings, in the end it was difficult to get a sense of direction.

The environment is likely to continue to be one of a wait-and-see attitude for materials

trade observations

We needed to be flexible enough to see through the upward trend early and capture short-term reversals.

Returns after the lows were limited, and the decision to switch between gains and losses became important.

The strategy of not carrying over positions in a market with strong adjustment tones and sticking to intraday rotation appeared to be effective.

checklist

Check the trend of long-term U.S. interest rates and the reaction of the U.S. dollar

Understand the flow impact of weekend rebalancing

Be aware of the lower and upper range levels in the short-term leg

looking back

The dollar tested the previous day's highs in the European hour, but a decline in the U.S. long-term interest rate strengthened the dollar sell-off, and in the New York hour, the index and weekend rebalancing caused the dollar to swing up and down.

summary

The Australian dollar only temporarily tested higher as lower U.S. interest rates weighed on the dollar

In the New York session, the price swung sharply up and down due to the index and rebalancing demand.

Overall, the market lacked a sense of direction and continued to be strongly adjustment-oriented.

Today's Price Movement

European hours were marked by the previous day's highs, but then the market was seen to be sluggish.

Another decline in U.S. interest rates strengthened dollar sales, while the Australian dollar's gains were limited.

In New York, the weekend factor added to the volatility, and the ups and downs were noticeable.

Background & Materials

Long-term U.S. interest rates fell again, adding to dollar selling pressure

U.S. economic indicators fell short of market expectations, supporting dollar sales

Flows from weekend rebalancing amplified additional market volatility.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market was pushed back after testing the previous day's highs, and the movement was directionless

There were some downside stops near the support line, but resilience was limited.

The market continued to move up and down within a range, and trading was mainly rotational trading by short-term sources.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Tested highs on a daily basis, but pushed back at the close, with a sense of upside potential

No clear signs of a trend, still in a range

No sustained direction was confirmed due to strong noise from adjustments ahead of the weekend

impression

The market was different in the European and New York hours, and was strongly influenced by short-term fundamental factors.

Flow factors, such as rebalancing demand, were involved, and the mix of real demand and speculation made for a difficult development.

The market as a whole showed a strong wait-and-see attitude in anticipation of the week's developments.

trade observations

Instead of following the upward test, a response was required with an awareness of the risk of a pushback.

A strategy to limit position size was felt to be effective, assuming a swing due to weekend factors

The short-term profit-taking was the priority, and flexible decision-making was needed to avoid sticking to the direction.

checklist

Check the trend of long-term U.S. interest rates

Be aware of flow from weekend rebalancing

Identify the upper and lower levels of the daily range