Market Summary

Weak U.S. unemployment insurance applications and PPI have raised awareness of the possibility of interest rate cuts, and lower U.S. long-term interest rates are restraining the dollar's upward movement.

Reports of the LDP presidential election may affect the yen market, and the Japanese holiday and early-week flows also add to the lack of direction

Assumed range

Assumed to hover around 147.20-148.20

The downside is likely to confirm support around 147.00, while the upside is likely to be aware of a return high around 148.50

tactics

Basic stance is to sell back

A test of the lows is expected, so entry during the return phase will be prioritized, while also paying attention to short-term pushback adjustments.

trigger

A break below 147.00 is likely to intensify a downward test.

A break above 148.50 would require a revision of the return selling strategy

Possible short-term triggers from U.S. indicators in the NY hour and flows in the European hour

override condition

A clear break above 148.50 and consolidation at the highs would break the return scenario.

Assumptions need to be revised in case reports of Japanese political factors accelerate yen selling

risk event

U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Manufacturing Index and other economic indicators

News flow related to the LDP presidential election

Changes in supply and demand due to rebalancing at the end of the week

Position Management

Adjust entry by 1/3 to 1/2 the size of a smaller entry.

Interest is set in steps of 20 to 30 pips.

Stop-loss is executed upon clear confirmation of a break above 148.50.

checklist

Check trends in U.S. long-term interest rates and risk assets

Watch for impact of LDP presidential election coverage on the yen market.

Responding to short-term flows due to rebalancing at the end of the week

Market Summary

The ECB left its policy rate unchanged, with President Lagarde supporting the euro with a cautious stance, depending on data.

Weak PPI and unemployment insurance claims in the U.S. led to speculation of interest rate cuts, and lower U.S. long-term interest rates weighed on the dollar.

The previous weekend saw a temporary test of higher prices in the European hour, but the market swung up and down in the New York hour and closed with a lack of sense of direction.

Assumed range

The downside is around 1.1580 and the upside is around 1.1750.

It is expected to remain in a range and should be prepared for a break either up or down.

A phase that simultaneously confirms the heaviness of the highs and the firmness of the push.

tactics

Basically, assume a range rotation, with short-term push-buying and return selling.

Prefer to take profit before 1.1700 and be buy conscious when testing lower support.

Flexible response to sudden changes, avoiding unreasonable positions.

trigger

The upside is a turning point to be clear above 1.1750.

A downside is below 1.1580 and watch out for a range breakdown.

Economic indicators in the U.S. time and flows in early Europe are short-term triggers.

override condition

If the price settles well above 1.1750, the return policy is negated.

Conversely, a clear daily pullback below 1.1580 would invalidate the push-buy policy.

Be wary of a breakdown of the range assumption with either a new high or low.

risk event

U.S. NY Fed manufacturing index and pre-FOMC statement trends.

Eurozone price-related indicators and key figures' statements.

Rebalancing flows and sudden geopolitical news specific to the beginning of the week.

Position Management

Position size is suppressed to about half the normal size.

The profit target is around 1.1700 and the loss target is below 1.1580 and above 1.1760.

Limit risk while following short-term price movements.

checklist

Did you see a reaction in the vicinity of 1.1700?

Has the maintenance of support around 1.1580 been verified?

Did they adjust their positions before the release of indicators or statements by key figures?

Market Summary

In the U.S., weak PPI and unemployment insurance applications raised awareness of the possibility of interest rate cuts, and lower U.S. long-term interest rates also weighed on the dollar.

Lack of new material on the UK side makes it difficult to get a sense of direction for the pound alone.

The previous weekend, after a downward push in the European hour, the New York hour swung up and down with a lack of sense of direction.

Assumed range

Lower price is expected around 1.3520 and higher price around 1.3600

Short-term focus is on the back-and-forth between support and resistance

Range of price movement is somewhat limited and waiting for a break

tactics

Basically, be aware of range rotation and use a combination of buying at support and selling on the return near resistance.

If the move to test the highs is slow, the priority is to take profits as soon as possible.

Until a sense of direction is obtained, a small, incremental approach is effective.

trigger

Watch for a clear establishment above 1.3600 to the upside.

A break below 1.3520 is likely to signal a range breakdown

Flows in early European hours and U.S. economic indicators in NY hours are key in the short term

override condition

If established above 1.3600, the return policy is negated.

Pushback is invalid in a development below 1.3520 and daily lows.

If the range assumption is rejected, the strategy is switched to match the direction of the break.

risk event

U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York manufacturing index and U.S. housing index

Reports of statements by British dignitaries and fiscal

Rebalancing flow specific to the beginning of the week

Position Management

Position size is controlled to about half the normal size

The profit stop is around 1.3580 and the loss stop is based on a break below 1.3520 or above 1.3610.

Focus on short-term trading and avoid holding for long periods of time

checklist

Is the support around 1.3520 holding?

1.3600 breakthrough confirmed or not in the European and New York hours?

Have you finished adjusting your positions before risk events?

Market Summary

In the U.S., PPI came in lower than expected, and together with the increase in unemployment insurance claims, this, along with the expectation of a rate cut, restrained the dollar's upward movement

Lack of new material from Australia; Chinese economic indicators and resource prices remain cues

The previous day tested a downward push from European to New York hours and ended with a strong adjustment overall

Assumed range

Assuming downside around 0.6580 and upside around 0.6700.

Watch out for directionless movement as the market is likely to be mainly attacking and defending within a range.

Focus is on whether the price can be extended to the upside while confirming the firmness of the lower price.

tactics

The basic principle is to buy at the push point and focus on reactions at support levels.

Prioritize gains on the upside at 0.6660-0.6700 and be aware of short-term rotation.

Controlling position size without overreacting to sudden changes

trigger

If a clear break above 0.6700 can be established, buying interest may increase.

Downward awareness is likely to increase at a break below 0.6580.

Flows in European hours and U.S. economic indicators in New York are likely to be short-term movers.

override condition

A return scenario is invalid if the price breaks well above 0.6700 and is established on a daily basis

Conversely, a break below 0.6580 and an intraday low would negate the push-back policy

A clear breakthrough of support or resistance either above or below would destroy the range assumption.

risk event

Release of U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York manufacturing index and housing-related indicators

Major economic indicators such as industrial production and retail sales in China

Rebalancing and resource market fluctuations specific to the beginning of the week

Position Management

Position size is carefully handled at half the normal size.

The profit stop should be around 0.6660 and the loss stop should be below 0.6580 or above 0.6710.

Stick to short-term trading and keep positions light before and after events.

checklist

Have you checked to see if the 0.6580 support is holding?

Did you confirm whether or not 0.6700 is breached in the European and New York timeframes?

Have you finished adjusting your positions before risk events?

looking back

With Japan closed and the U.S. FOMC and BOJ meeting to be held later in the week, the market remained in a narrow range, gradually cutting the upside, and continued to bounce back and forth within the 11-day downward wave.

summary

Waiting for events, small swings in U.S. interest rates, limited directional movement in the dollar

The price range was noticeably narrowed during the day due to a mixture of push-buying and return selling.

Today's Price Movement

The yen continued to hover around the 147-yen level, leaning slowly down from the mid-147-yen level in the early going

The return from Europe to New York was also slow, and the upper end of the range was not clearly exceeded.

Background & Materials

Position adjustment prevails ahead of the US FOMC and BOJ meeting during the week due to thin flows from the Japan holiday

Lack of new material on key indicators kept the market waiting for headlines.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 11-day downward wave remains inside and the return is being held back step by step.

The upper part of the phase confirms the weight of the upper 147 yen level and the lower part of the 147 yen level sticking to the lower 147 yen level.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The medium-term trend is neutral as the pair continues to hold in the upper ¥146 to ¥149 range.

The ground continues to be prone to increasing price range stagnation as we wait for the break.

impression

Maintain a standstill posture when movements outside of the assumed scenario are too risky to follow unreasonably before the event.

We believe that prioritizing short-term gains and increasing the frequency of information updates will be effective.

trade observations

Basically, range rotation is used to keep size low, profit margins shallow, and stop-losses mechanical.

Keep positions light before indicators and wait and see rather than following sudden changes

checklist

Have we reconfirmed the lower and upper support of the 147 yen level, respectively?

Do you know the time and content of U.S. interest rates and related headlines?

Have you reviewed your position size and risk tolerance before and after the event?

looking back

Bidding during the European hour pushed it to the previous day's high, but after entering New York, it was sluggish and failed to reach last week's high.

summary

US interest rates are little changed ahead of the week's FOMC meeting, and the euro is limited in direction due to a mix of buying on the downside and selling on the upside

The headline-waiting phase continued, and short-term price range tended to narrow.

Today's Price Movement

Early in the European session, the market was dominated by buyers and tested the 1.1750 area at times, but it did not last and stalled out.

The highs were slower in New York as the pair bounced between 1.1710 and 1.1740.

Background & Materials

Weakness in U.S. PPI and unemployment insurance claims weighs on interest rate cut speculation and the U.S. dollar moves higher

ECB maintained its data-dependent stance, and while the euro's push is likely to be underpinned, new material was limited.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Support is 1.1700 to 1.1680, resistance is 1.1750 to 1.1780.

RSI is in neutral territory and needs volume and confirmation of consecutive positive lines to break above

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The trend remains neutral at 1.1600-1.1820.

Remains above the moving average, but lacks decisiveness and remains tinged with a wait-and-see attitude toward events

impression

Avoid following the market unreasonably and give priority to confirming price movements within the expected range.

Increase frequency of information updates and inspect scenario assumptions until the event passes.

trade observations

Basis is range rotation, size is controlled, gains are shallow, and losses are mechanically executed.

Keep positions light before the indexes, and in the event of a sudden change, prioritize remaining calm rather than following the change.

checklist

Confirmation of a clear break above 1.1750 or not?

Is the support zone at 1.1700-1.1680 holding?

Do you know the time and content of U.S. indicators and key figures' statements?

looking back

In the European hour, buyers came in and the previous day's high was renewed, but after entering New York, followers were thin and sluggish, and a break above the daily resistance was not confirmed yet.

summary

US interest rates are expected to move little higher ahead of the FOMC and Bank of England meetings later in the week, while the dollar's upside is heavy, and new material on the UK side is scarce, limiting the sense of direction.

A mix of buying and selling, with the short-term confirming both the heaviness of the upside and the firmness of the downside at the same time.

Today's Price Movement

Buying dominated the early London session, testing the 1.3580 level, but stalled thereafter.

After the New York session, the pair was stuck in the 1.3550-1.3600 range, and the highs did not continue to follow, closing just above the highs.

Background & Materials

Weakness in U.S. PPI and unemployment insurance claims restrained the dollar's upside on expectations of a rate cut

Change in the Bank of England's stance is hard to see, with gilt trends and flows the main short-term drivers.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Resistance is at 1.3600 to 1.3635 Support is at 1.3520 to 1.3500 confirming the reaction.

Momentum is near neutral and needs consecutive positives and shallow pushes to continue to the upside

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The 1.3470-1.3635 band will remain in place, and the medium-term trend will be range-bound.

The market continues to hover around the moving average and the direction is still dependent on events

impression

Before the event, inspect the quality of price movement within the expected band without forcibly chasing a breakout.

When the upward momentum is slow, take profits first and avoid going too deep.

trade observations

Basically, the size is controlled by range rotation, with gains around 1.3580 and losses below 1.3520 and above 1.3610, which are executed mechanically.

Keep positions light before and after indicators and consider only a forward initial move in case of sudden changes

checklist

Did you confirm the possibility of a clear break above 1.3600 in terms of actual prices and volume?

Have you verified that the 1.3520 support is maintained and whether or not it runs after the break?

Did you keep track of today's indicators and the time of key figures' statements, and did you manage them in conjunction with the most recent flows?

looking back

With the FOMC meeting to be held later in the week, the US interest rate swing was small and there was little new material on the Australian side, but the market was sluggish in the early Asian session.

summary

The external environment is likely to restrain the dollar's upward movement, while the lack of Australia-specific materials limits the direction of the dollar.

The push was shallow and the day reaffirmed the firmness in the low 0.66s, with a tinge of waiting for a break

Today's Price Movement

Asia-Europe: Buyers were in the lead, but the market returned to the previous day's highs and the upside was temporarily heavy.

Stalled in the first half of the New York session, but ended the day slightly above the previous day's high in the second half of the session, with a back-and-forth in the upper 0.66s

Background & Materials

Weakness in U.S. PPI and unemployment insurance claims supports rate cut speculation and restrains dollar upside

New material from Australia is limited, with Chinese indices and resource market conditions the main cues.

Position adjustments and flows were relatively large before the event.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Support is 0.6580 to 0.6600 and resistance is 0.6660 to 0.6700.

Momentum is near neutral and upside requires confirmation of consecutive positives and shallowness of the push

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The medium-term trend is neutral as the pair continues to stay in the 0.6520-0.6700 band.

Moving averages are above the moving averages, but lack decisiveness and are waiting for events to pass.

impression

The fewer the headlines, the more effective it is to assess the quality of price movements and avoid following them too closely.

If the stall continues at the highs, we want to stop and inspect the scenario assumptions.

trade observations

Basically, the range rotation will be controlled and size will be controlled, with profit-taking priority at 0.6660-0.6700 and loss-taking at 0.6580 or below mechanically executed.

Keep positions light before indicators and limit to initial forward movement only in case of sudden changes

checklist

Did you confirm the possibility of a break above 0.6700 and its establishment in actual price and volume?

Have you verified whether the 0.6580 support is maintained and whether there is a run after the break?

Have you organized the time and content of today's U.S. indicators and related headlines?