Market Summary

Easy ground for small swings in U.S. interest rates ahead of the first day of the FOMC meeting and U.S. retail sales

Mostly position adjustments before the event, with the BOJ meeting coming up later in the week.

Tokyo expects liquidity to normalize and will focus on flows in Europe and New York

Assumed range

Basic scenario around 147.00-149.00

Above is the 147.90-149.00 area, where return sales are likely to occur.

Below confirms firmness in the 147.00-146.50 area.

tactics

Thinly dispersed while checking the response in the upper and lower bands around the range rotation axis.

Thoroughly control size and take profits early before the event.

Breaks follow only after confirmation of volume.

trigger

Upward breakout will be followed short term by consolidation above 147.90 and a test of 149.00.

Downside is a break below 147.00 to watch for a run in the direction of 146.50.

Time zones are European entry and early NY and US retail headlines at 21:30

override condition

If the price stays above 149.00 and stays in the high zone, the return assumption is withdrawn.

If the price stays below 146.50 all day, the push-buy assumption will be withdrawn

If event-derived turbulence continues to stay outside the expected band, move to a wait-and-see approach

risk event

U.S. Retail Sales Results and Initial Interest Rates

Headlines of key figures' statements and press coverage on the first day of the FOMC meeting

Observations related to the BOJ meeting and reports on the operational policy

Position Management

Maximum size less than half the normal size and even lighter before the index.

Consider staged settlement at 147.80-148.20 on the upside and 147.10-146.80 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 149.10 and below 146.40.

checklist

Have you organized the time and expected reaction path of U.S. retailers?

Did you catch the change in board quote and volume at 147.00 and 147.90?

Did you update your position and risk tolerance before and after the event?

Market Summary

Today is the first day of the FOMC meeting and the U.S. August retail sales meeting, and we are waiting for the events.

Small swings in U.S. interest rates and limited directional movement in the U.S. dollar provide a supportive environment for the euro's push

Assumed range

Assuming 1.1700-1.1820 as a basic scenario

Allowable swing from 1.1680 to 1.1850 when expanded

tactics

Basis is range rotation.

Sell on the return when resistance is approaching and buy on the push when support is approaching with a small amount of diversification.

Strict size control and staged profit-taking before the event

trigger

Upside is to consolidate above 1.1785 and verify upside potential at 1.1820 and above.

Downside is below 1.1700 and below 1.1680, noting a spillover of selling pressure.

Time zones are European entry and US retail at 21:30 and initial interest rate moves in early New York.

override condition

Return assumption invalid if stay above 1.1820 continues.

If 1.1700 is clearly broken and the daily low is reached, the push-back assumption is invalid.

risk event

U.S. August Retail Sales Results and Related Headlines

Sentiment change due to FOMC first day reports and key figures' statements

Position Management

Size is capped at half the normal size and even lighter before the index.

Gains were executed in stages at 1.1770-1.1800 and 1.1710-1.1730.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.1825 and below 1.1680.

checklist

Did you confirm the possibility of a break above last week's high around 1.1785 and the shape of the volume?

Is the support zone at 1.1700-1.1680 holding?

Have we sorted out the initial path for US retail and interest rates at 21:30?

Market Summary

The dollar is expected to be directionless today with small swings in U.S. interest rates ahead of the first day of FOMC and U.S. retail

Material on the UK side is limited and is likely to be flow-driven before the MPC, so the focus is on where we can confirm the heaviness of the upside.

Note short term position adjustment upon arrival in London and recovery of liquidity in early New York.

Assumed range

Basically, the price is expected to come and go around 1.3520-1.3600

Allow swings to the 1.3500-1.3635 area during expansion

Tendency to repeat upward test and push formation depending on the time of day

tactics

Sell on the return when resistance approaches and buy at the push point when support approaches, based on the range rotation.

Avoid chasing highs and wait for a reaction before entering the market.

Before the event, we will keep the size of the market low and the profit margins shallow.

trigger

To the upside, check for buying continuity with consolidation above 1.3600 and a test of 1.3615-1.3635.

Downside is below 1.3520 to see if 1.3500 reacts and runs.

Times are London initials and US retail headlines at 21:30 and interest rate initials in early New York

override condition

The return assumption is invalid if it continues to languish above 1.3635

If it stays clearly below 1.3500, the push-buy assumption is invalid.

Switch to a wait-and-see approach if it stays outside the expected band for a long time due to turbulence

risk event

Initial impact of U.S. retail sales results and interest rates

Sentiment change due to FOMC first day reports and key figures' statements

Headlines related to the Bank of England and sudden changes in gilt yields

Position Management

Open interest is capped at less than half the normal level and held more lightly before an index.

Gains were executed in stages at 1.3580-1.3600 on the upside and 1.3540-1.3525 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.3610 and below 1.3490.

checklist

1.Did you confirm whether or not the 3600 can be exceeded and the workmanship?

Did you grasp the reaction and the thinness of the board at 1.3520 and 1.3500 support?

Have you organized today's indicator times and expected paths of flow changes?

Market Summary

Today is the first day of the FOMC meeting and the U.S. retail market, so the swing in U.S. interest rates is likely to be limited as we await these events.

New materials on the Australian side are scarce, with Chinese indices and resource market conditions the main clues.

Hard to see clear resistance and priority is to confirm where the upside will be.

Assumed range

Assuming a basic scenario of around 0.6600-0.6700

Above will confirm the strength of the return around 0.6660-0.6700

Below, inspect the reaction at the 0.6600 to 0.6580 support zone

tactics

With range rotation as the axis, we will pick up small amounts of profit at the pushpoints and take staged profit on the returns.

Breaks will be followed to a limited extent after confirming the volume

Before the event, it is our policy to keep the size down and not to go too deep into retention.

trigger

The upside will be verified by fixing above 0.6700 and testing 0.6715 to see if it can be followed.

A break below 0.6580 will alert us to a further run.

The time frame will be focused on the first move in Europe and the first move in U.S. retail at 21:30 and interest rates in early New York

override condition

If it continues to stay above 0.6700, the return assumption will be invalidated.

If the price remains clearly below 0.6580, the push-back assumption will be invalid

If there is a sudden change at the same time as the indicator and it stays outside the expected band for a long time, switch to a wait-and-see approach

risk event

U.S. Retail Sales Surprise and Accompanying Reaction of U.S. Interest Rates

Relevant headlines and key figures on the first day of the FOMC

China's high-frequency data and resource market fluctuations

Position Management

Open interest is limited to less than half the normal level and is further reduced before an index.

The interest rate will be executed in stages at 0.6660-0.6690 and 0.6610-0.6590

Losses are mechanically executed above 0.6715 or below 0.6575.

checklist

0.6700 Confirmation of whether or not to go above 0.6700 and the workmanship?

Have we identified the maintenance of the support zone at 0.6600-0.6580?

Have you sorted out the initial route for today's index times and interest rates?

looking back

After a wait-and-see attitude in Europe as investors awaited U.S. indicators, the dollar began to sell off in New York as speculation of a rate cut prevailed despite an uptick in retail sales.

summary

Even though the index itself is strong, the persistence of the dollar's buying power is limited due to persistent expectations of lower interest rates

Position adjustments ahead of the event led the way, testing up and down, but eventually returning to within the range.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo is pushing lower to below 147.00, and the return is slow.

Europe is waiting for indicators, with little sense of direction and a small back-and-forth

In New York, dollar buying did not last for a moment immediately after retail sales rose, but the downward pressure resumed and the close was around 147.00.

Background & Materials

U.S. August retail sales beat expectations, but interest rates remain heavy on the upside as rate cut speculation prevails

Ahead of the FOMC meeting, speculation and waiting for headlines are influencing flows, with the focus on short term muscle rotation.

Intermittent yen-buying speculation with the BOJ meeting in the second half of the week in mind

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Resistance is 147.50 to 148.00 Support is 147.00 to 146.50

Momentum is neutral and returns are likely to be restrained in stages, while lows are likely to be repurchased.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Holding at 146.50-148.50 continues, awaiting break

Price range tends to shrink slightly as more prices stay near the moving average

impression

Focus on the quality of price movements and be conservative in following price movements when the fundamental direction of the market is difficult to see.

Until the event passes, we will frequently inspect the assumptions of the scenario and stop at abnormal price movements.

trade observations

Basically, it is range-bound, size is controlled, gains are shallow, and losses are executed mechanically.

In case of sudden change, consider only the initial reaction and avoid late reversal.

checklist

Did the actual price confirm the heaviness of the upside at 147.50 and the strength of the support at 147.00?

Have you grasped the initial movement of U.S. interest rates and the speed at which they are transmitted to the exchange rate?

Have you rechecked the event times and position sizes for the next business day?

looking back

Euro buys in Europe ahead of FOMC meeting, U.S. retail sales up, but dollar buying does not continue as rate cut speculation prevails, and the euro closes higher in New York

summary

Pre-event position adjustments and small swings in interest rates led to a sense of direction with a strong euro bias, but also a sense of overheating

While the push was shallow and the upward test continued, there was a noticeable lack of growth toward the end of the day.

Today's Price Movement

Early in Europe, the market was pushed by profit-taking once after breaking above the previous day's highs.

U.S. retail immediately after the U.S. dollar was bought but did not last, falling back and the euro rallied again.

The closing phase of the event converged on the higher price range and the close maintained a firm level.

Background & Materials

U.S. August retail sales up, but dollar index heavy on expectations of easing and lower interest rates by the end of the year

ECB's stance depends on data, lack of additional material, flow-driven tone

Risk appetite for geopolitics and higher equities supports the euro via crosses

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Resistance is in the 1.1850-1.1880 area and the focus is on whether or not it will be established above the 1.1850-1.1880 area.

Support is at 1.1800 to 1.1780, confirming the shallowness of the push.

Short-term momentum is up, but note the increase in the upper shadow

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Continued testing of the upper end of the 1.1700-1.1900 range

Moving averages have remained above the moving average group and the trend is firm, but the ability to hold on after a break is an issue.

impression

Even if the indicators are strong, the dynamics of interest rates and the prospect of easing make it difficult to extend dollar purchases.

The longer the market waits for headlines, the more priority is given to confirming the quality of price movement and volume.

trade observations

Basically range rotation and limited tracking on the upper side after confirming a stay above 1.1850.

On the downside, the reaction at 1.1800 is seen and the shallow profit priority size is managed up to half of the normal size.

checklist

Confirmation of the possibility of a break above 1.1850-1.1880 and the volume?

Did the 1.1800 to 1.1780 support zone verify the strength of the push?

Have you organized the time of the next event and the expected reaction path?

looking back

Despite limited material ahead of the FOMC and UK MPC meetings, buyers gained the upper hand in Tokyo, exceeded the previous day's highs in Europe, and even with the US retail sales up, rate cut speculation prevailed to close higher in New York.

summary

Upside of the dollar is heavy and the pound continues to test the upside with a shallow push.

Growth slowed toward the end of the day and converged into a range with a sense of overheating.

Pre-event position adjustments are the main cause of price movements, while short-term is flow-driven.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo bottomed just before 1.36 and moved up to the 1.36s on entering Europe.

US retail immediately after the dollar temporarily bought but did not sustain and maintained the 1.36 level

In the second half of the New York session, highs were thin and the session ended with traffic centered in the 1.36s.

Background & Materials

U.S. August retail sales exceeded expectations, but the outlook for easing within the year prevails, limiting upside for U.S. interest rates.

On the UK side, unchanged speculation and QT slowdown speculation provide relative support.

High stock prices and other risk appetites support the pound via cross

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Resistance is 1.3600 -> 1.3635 -> 1.3680 Support is 1.3550 -> 1.3520

Judgment of an upward breakout is confirmed based on the establishment above 1.3635 and the shallowness of the push.

Momentum is neutral to the upside, but beware of an increase in the upper shadow.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The pair continues to hold in the 1.3470-1.3680 zone, and the direction is likely to be left to after the event.

Holding of 1.3550 is a divergence to confirm the keynote, and a break below is a sign of reconfirmation of the lower range boundary.

impression

Even with strong indicators, it is difficult to continue buying the dollar, and the price range is highly flow-dependent.

When waiting for a headline, avoid unreasonable break following and focus on the quality of the reaction.

trade observations

Basically range rotation and size is controlled to less than half of normal.

Gains are executed in stages at 1.3600-1.3630 upper side and 1.3560-1.3540 lower side.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.3685 or below 1.3520.

checklist

Did the actual price confirm the possibility of a break above 1.3635 and the volume?

Did the support zone at 1.3520-1.3550 validate the strength of the push?

Have you sorted out the next day's event times and the initial US interest rate transmission path?

looking back

With the FOMC meeting coming up, U.S. retail sales were up, but expectations of a rate cut won't keep the dollar from buying, and the Australian dollar rallied at the end of the day to close slightly above the previous day's highs.

summary

Slight decline in U.S. interest rates provided support amid a wait-and-see environment ahead of the event and continued to test the upside.

New materials related to resource markets and China were scarce, and the market was dominated by flows.

It was a day of limited price range but shallow pushback.

Today's Price Movement

From Tokyo to Europe, the price tested the upper 0.66s, but remained sluggish.

Immediately after U.S. retail, dollar buying temporarily did not continue and reverted to the traffic.

Buyers returned to the market in the second half of the New York session and closed slightly above the previous day's high

Background & Materials

U.S. interest rates remain heavy on the upside as the FOMC meeting is set to be held the following day and the prospect of easing is being considered.

U.S. Retail Sales Up, but Sentiment Fails to Shift, Risk Appetite Steady

Headlines on the Australian side are limited, with interest rate differentials to the US and equity commodity trends the main cues

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Upside is focused on reaction around 0.6700 area and whether or not it can be established even if it breaks through.

The lower price confirms the strength of the push in the 0.6600 to 0.6580 band

Short-term momentum is neutral to the upside, note the increase/decrease in the whiskers

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Continued testing of the upper end of the 0.6600-0.6700 range

After breaking above the range, I would like to evaluate based on the shallowness of the return and the volume.

impression

Even with strong indicators, the dynamics of interest rates and easing expectations continue to make it difficult to continue buying the dollar

In the headline-waiting phase, price retention and volume bias should be prioritized in making decisions.

trade observations

Basis is range rotation, distributed sparingly in size.

Gains are taken in increments and losses are taken mechanically at prior levels.

Avoid chasing highs and wait to see the strength of the pushback before participating.

checklist

Have we confirmed the quality of the dwell time around 0.6700 and the quality of the upside?

Did you inspect the depth of the buyback at the 0.6600 to 0.6580 support zone?

Have you sorted out the next day's event times and the initial US interest rate transmission path?