Market Summary

Waiting for events today ahead of FOMC and Chairman Powell's press conference

An environment where the initial move in U.S. interest rates will be the biggest factor, and the price range is likely to shrink until the announcement.

Mainly flow-driven traffic inside the holding pattern after the August jobs report

Assumed range

Assuming around 146.50-148.50 as a basic scenario

Allow swing to 146.00-149.00 when expanding

Inspect quality of reaction at 147.00 and 148.00 milestones.

tactics

With the range rotation as the axis, support zones are picked up in small lots and resistance zones are dispersed by selling on the return.

Size control and shallow profit-taking before the event

Break follows limitedly after confirming establishment and avoid chasing highs and lows

trigger

The upside is to consolidate above 147.80 and test 148.00 to see if a short-term follow-through is possible.

Downside is below 147.00, confirming a run in the direction of 146.50 and the thickness of the buyback.

Time frame is immediately after the initial European reaction and the release of the statement and the headline of the press conference

override condition

Return assumption invalid if stay above 148.50 continues.

If it continues to languish below 146.50, the push-buy assumption is invalid.

If an event-derived sudden change stays outside the expected band for a long time, move to a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

FOMC Statement and Dot Implications and Initial Movement of Interest Rates

Degree of hawkishness and balance sheet references in Chairman Powell's press conference

Headlines on U.S. indices and news on supply and demand for government bonds

Position Management

Open interest is capped at less than half the normal level and held more lightly just before the announcement.

Gains were staged at 147.70-148.00 on the upside and 147.10-146.80 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 148.60 or below 146.40.

checklist

Did you catch the change in board quote and volume around 147.00 and 147.80?

Have you sorted out the main points of the statement and press conference and the initial path of U.S. interest rates?

Have you updated your allowable loss and open interest size before and after the event?

Market Summary

Waiting for events today ahead of FOMC and Chairman Powell's press conference

Initial moves in U.S. interest rates and indications of dots are likely to influence the direction of the dollar.

EURUSD remains at 4-year highs and focus is on continued upward movement

Assumed range

Basically, the price is expected to come and go around 1.1820-1.1920.

Allow swings to the 1.1800-1.1950 area during expansion

Keep in mind short-term excesses in time frames and headlines

tactics

Basically, range rotation is adopted, with a slight preference for push-buying.

When resistance is approaching, we will respond with small-lot diversification, including selling on the return.

Strict size control and staged profit-taking before the event

trigger

The upside is 1.1900 fixing and above 1.1920, confirming the possibility of 1.1950 test.

Downside is below 1.1840 to inspect the run to 1.1820 and the depth of the buyback.

Time frames are the initial response in Europe and the initial response in interest rates immediately following the release of the statement and the press conference.

override condition

1.The return assumption is invalid if the market continues to languish above 1950.

If the price remains clearly below 1.1820, the push-back assumption is invalid.

Switch to a wait-and-see approach if it stays outside the expected band for a long time due to turbulence

risk event

FOMC Statement and Dot's Suggested Revisions and the Nuances of the Conference

Modulation of risk appetite due to U.S. bond auctions and sudden changes in equities

Sudden occurrence of key figures' statements and geopolitical headlines

Position Management

Open interest is capped at less than half the normal level, and is further reduced just before the announcement.

Gains are staged at 1.1880-1.1900 on the upside and 1.1860-1.1840 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.1955 and below 1.1815.

checklist

Have you checked whether or not the 1.1900-1.1920 can be exceeded and the workmanship?

Have you grasped the strength of the push around 1.1820 and the thickness of the buy board?

Have the key points of the statement and press conference and the initial US interest rate transmission channels been sorted out?

Market Summary

The biggest factor today is the initial move in U.S. interest rates with the FOMC and Powell's press conference coming up.

Relatively cautious flows expected for the pound ahead of the U.K. MPC meeting the next day

Before the event, it is easy to be wait-and-see and the direction depends on the headlines.

Assumed range

Assuming a basic scenario around 1.3550-1.3680

Above confirms quality of return around 1.3635-1.3680

Below, inspect the reaction at the 1.3550 to 1.3520 support zone.

tactics

Tactics are based on range rotation and a neutral stance.

Sell back in resistance zones and buy at support zones in small increments.

Keep positions light, refraining from new ones just before the event.

trigger

The upside is to stay above 1.3680 and test 1.3700 to see if it can be followed or not.

Downside is below 1.3550, confirming a run in the direction of 1.3520 and the depth of the buyback.

The time frame will be focused on the first move in Europe and the first move in interest rates immediately after the release of the statement and the press conference.

override condition

The return assumption is invalid if it continues to languish above 1.3700.

If the price remains clearly below 1.3520, the push-back assumption is invalid.

If the turbulence stays outside the expected zone for a long period of time, move to a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

FOMC Statement and Dot Implications and Nuances of Powell's Press Conference

Change in risk appetite due to initial moves in U.S. interest rates and equities

UK MPC-related headlines and government bond supply/demand trends for the following day

Position Management

Open interest is capped at less than half the normal level and adjusted more lightly before the announcement

Gains are staged at 1.3630-1.3660 on the upside and 1.3570-1.3540 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.3710 or below 1.3515.

checklist

Did you see the dwell time and volume in the upper band of 1.3635-1.3680?

Did you figure out the thickness of the board and execution in the support zone from 1.3550 to 1.3520?

Updated size and withdrawal criteria by event time and assumed scenario?

Market Summary

Waiting for events today ahead of FOMC and Chairman Powell's press conference

Initial US interest rate moves and nuances of the statement are likely to influence the direction of the dollar

Lack of new material on the Australian side, but resource market conditions and China-related headlines provide clues.

Assumed range

Basic assumption is a move around 0.6620-0.6705

Allow swings to the 0.6600-0.6720 area during expansion

The center is evaluated for upper and lower dwell time around 0.6660

tactics

Tactics are based on range rotation, buying at the pushpoint and selling on the return, and small-lot diversification.

Keep positions light, refraining from new ones just before the event.

After an index, initial follow-up is limited to a short period of time, and the policy is updated depending on whether or not the index has taken root.

trigger

The upside is 0.6700 fixing and 0.6710 testing to see if it can be followed or not.

Downside is below 0.6620 to inspect the run in the direction of 0.6600 and the depth of the buyback.

The time frame will be focused on the first move in Europe and the first move in interest rates immediately after the release of the statement and the press conference.

override condition

If it continues to stay above 0.6715, the return assumption is invalid.

If the price remains clearly below 0.6600, the push-back assumption is invalid.

If it stays outside the expected zone for a long time due to turbulence, move to a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

FOMC Statement and Dot Implications and Nuances of Chairman Powell's Conference

Initial changes in U.S. interest rates and equities and the impact of U.S. bond supply and demand

Headline risk in resource prices and China-related indicators

Position Management

Open interest is capped at less than half the normal level and adjusted more lightly just before the announcement.

Gains were executed in stages at 0.6690-0.6700 on the upside and 0.6630-0.6615 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 0.6715 or below 0.6595.

checklist

Did you see an upside reaction and dwell time around 0.6700?

Did you inspect the depth of the buyback at the 0.6620 to 0.6600 support zone?

Updated size and withdrawal criteria by event time and scenario?

looking back

The market remained wait-and-see before the FOMC meeting, and despite a temporary decline after the policy rate announcement, the market closed on a positive note as buyers returned to the market.

summary

The market lacked a sense of direction in the early stages and was pushed down to the mid-145 yen level at times.

Amid lingering uncertainty about the U.S. interest rate outlook, support to the downside prevailed toward the end of the day.

The daily line formed a long positive line with a long lower whisker, which made us aware of the short-term resilience of the market.

Today's Price Movement

The Tokyo session saw small movements around the lower ¥146 level.

The pair fell sharply to around 145.50 following the policy rate announcement during the New York session, then rallied back to around 147.00.

The closing price settled in the upper ¥146 range, swinging up and down but maintaining the lower price.

Background & Materials

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, raising awareness that the rate cut cycle is likely to continue.

The statement indicated employment and growth risks, and the dovish message triggered dollar selling.

On the Japanese side, the BOJ has not indicated any major policy changes, despite some weakness in economic indicators.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 145.50 area was recognized as recent support.

The immediate resistance level was around 147.00, and it remained to be seen whether it would be broken through or not.

The market was seen falling below the 20- and 50-day moving averages, but a rebound led to a short-term return.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily trend continues to test the lower limit of the ascending wedge shape.

The area around the 100-day moving average is a medium-term downside guide.

The RSI showed a slight pickup from oversold territory, suggesting an adjustmental return.

impression

The market reaction to the rate cut decision was limited to a temporary dollar sell-off, and the strength of the buyback was impressive.

The direction of monetary policy still weighs on the dollar, but it is unclear whether the yen will continue to come under pressure.

The large price range highlighted the importance of position management during event risk.

trade observations

Push-buying with support in mind and position reduction prior to the event were effective.

It is commendable that the company was able to take advantage of the lower end of the range without being upset by the temporary plunge.

However, it was difficult to make profit-taking decisions during the sharp rebound phase, and the choice between extending or defending gains was a challenge.

checklist

Reconfirm the support level around 145.50.

To verify the strength of the resistance around 147.00.

Watch how the market reacts to the pace of the Fed's future rate cuts.

looking back

The daily line was a shadow with a long upper mustache.

summary

The market was waiting for the event to take place, with small movements around 1.1800 at the beginning of the session.

The Fed's decision to cut interest rates has strengthened euro buying to around 1.1875

The level was then pushed down by dollar buybacks.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time was in a range between 1.1800 and 1.1800.

After the interest rate announcement in New York, the price rose sharply and hit the 1.1875 area, but the upside was not extended.

The price fell back at the end of the day, falling below 1.1800, and the daily price closed in a negative line

Background & Materials

Fed cuts policy rate by 25bp, raising expectations of continued rate cut cycle

The statement triggered dollar selling due to awareness of employment and growth risks.

On the other hand, strong U.S. retail sales restrained speculation of a wider rate cut.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

1.1875 was a strong resistance as the recent high

1.1779-1.1800 is considered as short-term support

Failed to break above the moving average line and became aware of pressure to return to the market

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily price formed a shadow line with an upper whisker, confirming the heaviness of the upper price around 1.1900

In the medium term, the range from the high 1.1700s continues

RSI declined slightly from its highs and showed signs of adjustment

impression

Euro buying on the rate cut announcement was temporary, and the impression remained that dollar buying back was predominant

Up-and-down swings indicate strong uncertainty over monetary policy

The importance of short-term position management for event risk was reiterated.

trade observations

The day was a test of profit-taking judgment during a short-term sharp rise in the market.

New purchases at high prices were prudent as they could easily be caught in a selloff.

There were many occasions when selling back using the lower support was relatively effective

checklist

To reconfirm the high level of 1.1875.

Verify maintenance of support for 1.1779 to 1.1800

Watch for market reaction to the pace of Fed rate cuts

looking back

The daily line was a shadow with a long upper mustache after a temporary rise after the policy rate announcement due to the wait-and-see attitude before the FOMC meeting, but it fell back

summary

The price remained slightly higher at around 1.3600 in the beginning of the session.

The announcement of the interest rate cut strengthened the pound to around 1.3670

The level was then cut back by dollar buybacks.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time was calm between 1.3600 and 1.3600.

It rose to around 1.3670 after the announcement of the rate cut in NY time.

The price quickly fell back to below 1.3600 at the end of the day.

Background & Materials

Fed cuts policy rate by 25bp as markets look for continued rate cuts

The statement's references to employment and growth risks led to dollar selling.

Meanwhile, UK inflation remained high and BoE rate cut speculation was receding

Technical Memo (Short-term)

1.3575 served as recent support.

1.3670 became an upside resistance and failed to break through.

Failed to break above the short-term moving average, resulting in the form of a selloff

Technical Memo (mid-term)

1.3500 is being considered as a medium-term downside guideline.

A strong resistance zone around 1.3700 is restraining the market to the upside.

RSI declined from its highs and showed signs of adjustment

impression

Price movements in response to the policy event did not continue in one direction, but came and went.

Interest rate policies of both the U.S. and the U.K. remain the focus of the market

The selloff after the sharp rebound reminded us of the roughness of price movements during event risk.

trade observations

It was difficult to make profit-taking decisions during the surge phase immediately after the event.

Short-term stop-loss management was effective in avoiding high prices.

Short-term trading utilizing support levels worked relatively well.

checklist

Confirmation that support near 1.3575 will hold.

Watch for a break through the 1.3670-1.3700 resistance zone.

Tracking changes in the Fed's and BoE's monetary policy outlook

looking back

Small movements ahead of the FOMC meeting continued, but rose after the policy rate announcement, followed by a sharp decline and a long daily shadow with a long upper mustache

summary

The price remained around 0.6670 in the early stage of the session with a lack of direction due to a wait-and-see attitude

The Fed's interest rate cut pushed dollar sales higher to around 0.6700.

After that, dollar buybacks prevailed and the market began to fall back.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time was range-bound around 0.6670.

The rate rose to around 0.6700 following the policy rate announcement in New York time.

The dollar was pushed back to around 0.6650 at the end of the day.

Background & Materials

Fed cuts policy rate by 25bp, raising awareness of prospects for continued rate cuts

The statement mentioned risks to the economy and employment, temporarily triggering a dollar sell-off.

On the other hand, concerns about the Australian employment data did not sustain the Australian dollar buyers.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

0.6700 is now considered as the latest resistance.

0.6650 was a candidate for support and was tested toward the end of the day.

Failure to break above the short-term moving average line was the backdrop for the selloff.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

On the daily basis, a shadow line with an upper whisker formed, confirming the heaviness of the upside.

The 0.6600 area is a medium-term downside guide.

RSI declined from its highs and showed signs of adjustment

impression

Australian dollar buying in response to rate cut was temporary and lacked staying power

Uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy is affecting the overall dollar market.

The ups and downs were typical of the movement during event risk.

trade observations

It was difficult to make profit-taking decisions during sharp rallies, and a flexible response was required.

Short-term trading using support levels showed some effectiveness.

Return strategy worked during the selloff.

checklist

Reconfirming resistance around 0.6700.

To verify the strength of the support at 0.6650-0.6600.

Keep a close eye on the Australian employment report and the Fed's rate cut outlook.