Market Summary

Price movements following the previous day's FOMC meeting have run their course, and the range is continuing due to the Fed's post-rate cut guidance and the wait-and-see situation before the BOJ meeting

Assumed range

Assuming a range around 146.20-147.80

The lower price is expected to be at the level of the August low, and the upper price is expected to be in the upper 147-yen range as a resistance zone.

tactics

Basic policy of range rotation amid lack of sense of direction

Be flexible and buy on the downside and sell on the upside

trigger

A clear break above 147.80 would be a phase to be aware of a test to the upside.

A break below 146.20 could strengthen the downward bias

Trends in U.S. economic indicators and long-term U.S. interest rates will also be watched as short-term triggers.

override condition

Range assumption will be negated if the decline accelerates well below 146.20

Conversely, a clear break above 148.00 would be considered a breakthrough of the upper resistance zone.

risk event

BOJ Policy Rate Announcement and Governor's Press Conference

U.S. economic indicators (new unemployment insurance claims, housing-related data, etc.)

Fluctuations in U.S. long-term interest rates and stock markets

Position Management

Position size is about half of normal to prepare for event risk.

Prioritize small gains of 20 to 30 pips, and focus on securing profits within the range.

Cutting losses is set based on levels outside the expected range and risk limitation is strictly enforced.

checklist

Check to see if support around 146.20 holds.

Watch for a break through the resistance zone around 147.80.

Assessing the impact of the BOJ meeting and U.S. interest rate trends on market sentiment

Market Summary

Eurodollar temporarily rose after the previous day's FOMC meeting, but fell back due to dollar buybacks, and the situation entered an adjustment phase from the highs.

Assumed range

Assuming a range around 1.1760-1.1875

Support on the downside near 1.1760 and resistance on the upside near 1.1875-1.1900

tactics

In the short term, use push-buy and return-sell based on range rotation

Keep positions light in preparation for volatile price movements due to the passage of the event.

trigger

Conscious of the possibility of accelerated upside testing if 1.1900 is clearly exceeded

A break below 1.1760 would increase selling pressure as adjustment tends to intensify.

U.S. economic indicators and Eurozone data will determine short-term direction

override condition

Continued decline below 1.1760 would negate the range assumption.

Conversely, a clear break above 1.1900 would indicate the end of the adjustment phase.

risk event

Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Business Confidence Index for the Eurozone

New unemployment insurance applications and housing-related data in the U.S.

Statements and guidance changes by key central bank officials

Position Management

Keep position size to half the standard to prepare for event risk

Profitability is secured in small increments of about 20 to 30 pips.

Losses are clearly set based on levels outside the expected range.

checklist

Make sure you can maintain support for 1.1760

Watch for a breakthrough of the 1.1875-1.1900 resistance zone.

Determine the impact of U.S. and European index releases on the dollar and euro.

Market Summary

Pound Lacks Direction as Post-FOMC Dollar Sell-off Runs its Course and Post-rate Guidance Provides Support for the Dollar

Assumed range

Assuming a range around 1.3580-1.3680

Support on the downside near 1.3580 and resistance on the upside near 1.3660-1.3680

tactics

In the short term, a range rotation will be used as a basis for buying on the downside and selling on the upside.

Maintain light position sizes in consideration of event risk.

trigger

A clear break above 1.3680 would be a conscious test to the upside.

A break below 1.3580 could intensify the adjustment phase.

BoE policy rate announcement and statement will determine short-term direction

override condition

Continued decline below 1.3580 would negate the range assumption.

Conversely, a break above 1.3700 would be considered the end of the short-term adjustment phase

risk event

Bank of England Policy Rate Announcement and Governor's Statement

U.S. economic indicators (e.g., new unemployment insurance claims and housing-related data)

Interest rate differentials and stock market trends that influence market sentiment

Position Management

Keep positions at about half the normal level and be prepared for sudden price movements.

Focus on small profit margins of 20 to 30 pips to ensure profitability.

Clearly set stop-losses at levels outside the expected range to limit risk.

checklist

Check to see if support around 1.3580 holds.

Watch for a breakthrough of the resistance zone between 1.3660 and 1.3680.

Market reaction after the BoE announcement and to assess the trend in U.S. interest rates.

Market Summary

Dollar sales following the FOMC rate cut announcement have run their course, and the Australian dollar's gains are held back by buybacks, falling back from its highs.

Assumed range

Assuming a range around 0.6630-0.6700

Support on the downside near 0.6630 and resistance on the upside near 0.6700

tactics

In the short term, a flexible combination of buying on the downside and selling on the upside based on range rotation.

Be cautious on the upside in light of the negative line at the highs, and focus on rebounding at the lows

trigger

A clear break above 0.6700 would be a phase where buying pressure would prevail.

A break below 0.6630 could increase downward pressure with more adjustment.

Australian employment-related data and U.S. economic indicators will determine short-term direction

override condition

Range assumption will be negated if the price continues to fall below 0.6630

Conversely, if the price settles above 0.6720, the adjustment phase is considered to be over.

risk event

Australian employment statistics and consumption-related indicators

New unemployment insurance applications and housing-related data in the U.S.

Fed officials' statements and sudden changes in market sentiment

Position Management

Position size should be kept at about half the normal level to prepare for event risk.

Aim for a profit margin of about 20 to 30 pips, and steadily accumulate profits in small increments.

Clearly limit risk by setting stop-losses outside the expected range.

checklist

To confirm that support for 0.6630 will be maintained.

Watch for a break through the 0.6700-0.6720 resistance zone.

Determine the impact of Australian indices and U.S. interest rate trends on the market.

looking back

The yen was still cautious after the U.S. interest rate cut, and the weak Japanese indicators helped the yen sell off, rising to the 148-yen level in New York.

summary

During the day, the dollar continued to hover in the low 147-yen range, but dollar buying strengthened through the New York time, temporarily showing the 148-yen level.

Thereafter, the upward movement calmed down, and the trade closed in a firmer position at the high end of the range.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time began with a small range between 147 yen.

In the European market, the pair hovered around 147.20 yen, lacking a sense of direction.

In the New York time, dollar buying prevailed and the pair rose to around 148.20 yen.

Background & Materials

Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, its subsequent stance was perceived as cautious.

Weak economic indicators, such as Japanese machinery orders, tipped investment sentiment toward a sell-off in the yen.

The dollar as a whole remained firm against major currencies, which also supported the dollar-yen.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around 147.00 yen was recognized as support and was a factor in the downside.

On the upside, the area around 147.80-148.20 yen acted as a resistance zone.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Medium-term support is located around 146.50 yen, and if the price does not break below this level, the firmness of the lower price is likely to be recognized.

If the 148 yen level is firmly exceeded, the 148.50 yen area will be the next guideline to be considered.

impression

The difference in monetary policy stance between the U.S. and Japan continues to be the main driver of market movement.

While there could be some adjustment depending on the U.S. data, for the time being, the movement is likely to continue against the backdrop of the policy gap.

trade observations

In the short term, buying was predominant, with the lower 147-yen level as a push point.

On the other hand, there was a lot of profit-taking at the 148-yen level, confirming the heavy upward pressure.

Although the price range was out of range, there was an impression that the market was settled at the top and bottom of the range.

checklist

Confirmation that support will be maintained around 147.00 yen.

Watch for a break through the upside resistance around 148.20 yen.

Be prepared for sudden fluctuations associated with U.S. indicators or statements by the Bank of Japan.

looking back

The euro was bought predominantly in the European hour, but the dollar strengthened in the New York hour and was slightly lower at around 1.1789

summary

The pair was in the low 1.18s in the early going, but upside was limited and the buying trend in Europe did not last long

The dollar was bought more in the New York session, pushing back to the 1.1750 area.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo session saw small movements around just 1.18

In European hours, the euro was bought and hit 1.1849.

In New York, the dollar was pushed down to 1.1751 on the back of dollar buying, but closed around 1.1789.

Background & Materials

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but its subsequent cautious stance was a supportive factor for the dollar

Some U.S. economic indicators exceeded expectations, providing a cue for dollar buying

Inflation slowed and business confidence improved in Europe, but the impact on monetary policy was considered limited

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Around 1.1790 acted as support, confirming a bottoming out at the end of the day.

The 1.1850 area is being considered as a guide to the upside.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

A clear break below 1.1740 could increase adjustment pressure.

Above the 1.1900 area, it is easy to be aware of a stronger upward trend again.

impression

Differences in policy stance between the U.S. and Europe continue to influence currency direction

The environment continues to be difficult to form a trend due to a mixture of strong and weak materials

trade observations

The strategy of chasing buying in the European hours was easily pushed by buying dollars in the NY hours.

Short-term return opportunities were confirmed, while pushback was seen at support

Overall, it was a valid situation for trading within the range.

checklist

Confirmation of support maintenance around 1.1790

Be aware of upside resistance around 1.1850

Be prepared for sudden fluctuations due to U.S. economic indicators and statements by key figures.

looking back

The pair showed resilience in the European hour, but dollar buying intensified in the New York hour and the pair fell to around 1.3555 at the end of the day

summary

Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged, but the impact was limited

Announcement of a slowdown in quantitative austerity also limited materiality, and the overall trend was dollar-driven.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time continued to move slightly around 1.3620

In European hours, the price rose to around 1.3660 in conjunction with euro buying, but the upside was heavy.

Dollar buying strengthened during the New York session on the back of strong U.S. economic indicators, pushing the pair down to the 1.3530 level.

Background & Materials

Bank of England left policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, in line with market expectations

The decision to slow the annual scale of quantitative austerity from 100 billion pounds to 70 billion pounds

In the U.S., indicators were firm, reinforcing the trend to buy back the dollar.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

1.3530 to 1.3540 acted as support.

On the upside, the resistance zone was around 1.3660, which restrained the rise from European hours onward

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Medium-term adjustment pressure is likely to intensify once the 1.3500 level is recognized

A move above 1.3700 would reaffirm the continuation of the uptrend.

impression

UK policy changes lacked direction; rather, U.S. material dictated the market

Differences in inflation and growth prospects were highlighted between the U.S. and the U.K. and reflected in differences in currency movements.

trade observations

The rise in European hours was easily recognized as an opportunity to return to the market.

In New York, the dollar was strongly bid, and buyers looking for a push were unlikely to be rewarded.

In the short term, selling from the upper end of the range prevailed.

checklist

Confirming support maintenance around 1.3530.

Be aware of upside resistance around 1.3660

Be prepared for volatility due to differences in policy stances between the U.K. and the U.S.

looking back

The Australian dollar started the day softer on the back of weak employment data, and although it recovered briefly in Europe, it was pushed down by dollar buying in New York and closed lower.

summary

Australian employment data unexpectedly declined, indicating weakness in the labor market

Cautiousness in the U.S. after interest rate cuts, dollar buying trend prevailed

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time tested below 0.6650 following the statistics release

In European hours, the pair was bought back and rallied to the 0.6660 area.

In New York, the dollar was bought on the back of strong U.S. indicators and pushed lower to 0.6607

Background & Materials

Australia's August employment report unexpectedly showed a decline of 5,400 jobs and a significant drop in full-time employment

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, but weakness was reinforced by a decline in the labor participation rate

In the U.S., the "risk management" nature of the rate cut continued to be emphasized even after the rate cut, indicating a cautious stance toward additional easing

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 0.6600-0.6610 area was seen as support.

The upside was a resistance zone around 0.6660, holding back the return in European hours.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

A clear break below 0.6580 is likely to bring awareness of downward adjustment pressure.

A move above 0.6700 would confirm a rebound trend.

impression

Weak employment data limited the Australian dollar's upside, but a combination of dollar buying back on the U.S. side also strengthened the decline.

In addition to the stance of policymakers, short-term fluctuations in supply and demand are influencing market direction

trade observations

The return in European hours was easily recognized as a selling opportunity, and the market was dominated by short-term return selling.

Strong dollar buying in New York time, with limited push-buying activity.

Some buybacks were seen near support, confirming the firmness of the lower price.

checklist

To see if support around 0.6600 can be maintained.

Be aware of return pressure around 0.6660

Be prepared for the risk of volatility associated with the release of economic indicators in Australia and the U.S.