Market Summary

Lack of direction after significant buying on the previous day and a wait-and-see attitude ahead of today's BOJ meeting

Assumed range

Assumed to hover around 147.50-149.00

To exit either up or down would require BOJ policy and U.S. indicators.

tactics

Basic policy emphasizes range rotation

In a downside test, support around 147.50 is a candidate for a push, while the 148.80-149.00 area is a candidate for a return to the market.

trigger

An upside breakout is likely to trigger stop-buying above 149.20.

A downside would be below 147.30, which could increase short-term selling pressure.

The Bank of Japan's policy announcement and Governor Kuroda's press conference (*assumed key figures' comments on the day) are likely to trigger volatility

override condition

Range strategy is likely to be invalidated if the 150.00 is clearly established above the 150.00 level.

A review is also needed if the price falls below 147.00 and the downtrend strengthens

risk event

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting and Statement, with reference to ETFs and asset sales policy

Release of U.S. economic indicators (employment-related, regional Fed indexes, etc.)

Changes in market risk perception due to statements by key figures in major countries

Position Management

Keep position size at about half the normal level and prepare for the outcome of the BOJ meeting.

The profit target is set at 20 to 40 pips, and the stop-loss is set 10 to 20 pips outside of the recent high and low.

After the announcement, adjust positions flexibly according to price movements to limit risk

checklist

Confirmation of support holding around 147.50

Be aware of upside resistance around 149.00

Be prepared for a change in tone in statements and statements after the BOJ meeting.

Market Summary

The previous day was slightly weaker and remained directionless, and the Eurodollar continues to search for a range

Assumed range

Price movement is expected to be centered around 1.1750-1.1850

On the downside, support near 1.1750 will be considered, and on the upside, the resistance zone will be around 1.1850

tactics

The basic policy is to buy at the push point and carefully consider entry while confirming the support area.

Be flexible in preparation for short-term price movements based on weekend rebalancing factors

trigger

Upward breakout is above 1.1860, where buying momentum is likely to strengthen.

Downside is likely to call for short-term selling pressure below 1.1740.

Index releases and key figures' statements in Europe and the U.S. time will be volatile factors

override condition

A clear break below 1.1700 is likely to negate the push-back strategy.

Even if the rise above 1.1900 is established, the range assumption will be broken and needs to be reviewed.

risk event

Release of consumer confidence and business confidence related indicators in the Eurozone

U.S. employment, regional economic indicators, and other factors that influence the strength or weakness of the dollar

Uneven flow due to weekend rebalancing

Position Management

Position sizes should be more conservative than usual to prepare for sudden fluctuations.

The profit target is 20 to 40 pips, and the stop loss is 10 to 20 pips outside the recent high and low.

Cautious about holding positions in light of weekend factors

checklist

To see if the support around 1.1750 can hold.

Watch for a break through resistance around 1.1850.

To determine the impact of the weekend rebalancing on flows.

Market Summary

Although the market fell sharply on the previous day, it is easy to be aware of the pushback in terms of level, and the focus is on confirming the lower price in the short term.

Assumed range

Assumed to hover around 1.3500-1.3650

The downside is likely to be around 1.3500 and the upside around 1.3650

tactics

The basic policy is to prioritize buying at the pushpoints, while taking small profit-taking steps if the momentum of the return is slow.

Based on fluctuations due to weekend factors, it is desirable to be aware of short-term price range taking

trigger

A clear break above 1.3660 is likely to be considered an acceleration of buybacks.

A break below 1.3490 would increase downward pressure and confirm a break below support.

Key figures' statements and U.S. index releases in the European hour are likely to trigger volatility.

override condition

A clear break below 1.3450 and an entrenched downtrend would likely negate the push-buy strategy

Conversely, a sustained rise above 1.3700 would also require a review of the range strategy

risk event

Additional reports on Bank of England officials' statements and monetary policy

Publication of UK inflation-related data and business confidence indicators

Dollar-driven price movements due to the results of U.S. economic indicators

Position Management

Position size is kept at about half the normal level to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations.

Set the profit margin in steps of 20 to 40 pips, and stop-losses outside the recent lows and highs.

Consider weekend rebalancing and be cautious about positions carried over

checklist

1.3500 to confirm support maintenance around 3,500.

Watch for a break through the upside resistance around 1.3650.

To determine the impact of the weekend rebalancing on flows.

Market Summary

The market continues to search for lower prices after the previous day's sharp decline, and the environment is conducive to considering push-buying at the level of the market.

Weak Australian employment data weighed on the dollar, while the U.S. side remained cautious even after the interest rate cut, indicating the dollar's resilience.

Short-term swings are likely to occur due to flows caused by weekend factors, and beware of uneven volatility depending on the time of day.

Assumed range

Assumed to hover around 0.6580-0.6680

Lower price is likely to be aware of defensive buying around 0.6600, while higher price is likely to see a return to the market at 0.6660-0.6680.

Breaking out of the range requires a break accompanied by new material and volume

tactics

Basis is to buy at the pushpoints, and to prioritize profit-taking on shallow returns, and to focus on rotation.

Split entry after confirming a downside stop in the 0.6600-0.6620 band, size suppression before the indicator.

Avoid one-sided selling by selling back in the short term when the upside stall is clear.

trigger

The upside is likely to be above 0.6680, which would be a conscious acceleration of buybacks.

Downside is below 0.6580, where stop selling is likely to spill over.

Wary of increased volume before and after the release of U.S. indices in Europe and early New York.

override condition

Withdraw push-back scenario if the price falls clearly below 0.6550 and the decline takes hold.

If the price settles above the 0.6700 level, we will reevaluate our range assumption and reassess our upside scenario.

If a long whisker appears at the first shot of an indicator, consider it as a signal of unreliability and refrain from following it.

risk event

Headlines related to Australia and China, and sudden changes in resource prices

U.S. employment, housing, regional Fed indexes, and other data that influence dollar demand

Flow bias due to weekend rebalancing and option cutting

Position Management

Position size is half the normal size, further reduced just before the event

Profit taking is executed in steps of 20 to 40 pips, and stop-loss is 10 to 20 pips outside of the recent high and low.

Always place a stop loss in case of a sudden change immediately after an announcement and manage on the assumption that slippage will occur.

checklist

Confirmation of continued buying support around 0.6600.

To confirm the strength of the return pressure at 0.6660-0.6680

Do not get caught up in a one-way bias due to weekend flows

looking back

The yen was bought ahead of the BOJ's decision to keep the yen unchanged, but the dollar was bought in Europe, testing the highs before stalling in New York.

summary

In the early stages of the session, the yen was pushed into the low 147-yen range by yen buying.

The dollar was bought back into the market and tested the 148-yen area through European hours.

In New York, the market was unable to break above the highs and was pushed back again, resulting in a lack of direction.

Today's Price Movement

The high was around 148.28 and the low was near 147.19, with an intraday amplitude of about 1 yen.

The yen was predominantly strong in Tokyo, the dollar was bought in Europe, and then stalled in New York.

The closing price returned to the 147.90s, near the opening price, leaving the impression of a back-and-forth market.

Background & Materials

The BOJ left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%, but it was noted that two board members insisted on a rate hike.

The market perceived the unchanged policy as somewhat dovish and temporarily leaned toward buying the yen.

Interest in U.S. interest rate levels and economic indicators also remained strong, supporting the dollar's resilience.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around 147.20 acted as support to the downside and held the recent lows.

The 148.20-148.30 area was the upper resistance and could not be clearly broken out.

Price movements were range-bound during the day, with limited short-term direction.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The range from the upper ¥146 to upper ¥148 level will continue, with a medium-term holding in mind.

On the daily basis, the area around the 20-day moving average is considered as support, making it difficult to determine the direction of the market.

The market is still in the high price range that has been in place since the second half of August and appears to be awaiting materials.

impression

The market reaction immediately after the policy event was calm and no major trend emerged.

The presence of negative votes made them aware of future changes in their stance, but did not lead to an immediate change in direction.

The dollar continues to hold its ground against the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential and the policy outlook.

trade observations

There were some short-term up and down attempts, but the price movements were difficult, eventually converging into a range.

Neither the chase to higher highs nor the digging to lower lows continued, and there were many phases for scalping.

Rather than aiming for a clear break, the impression was that contrarian moves utilizing support and resistance worked.

checklist

Can the support around 147.20 hold?

Is a break above 148.30 possible?

Continued focus on U.S. interest rate trends and BOJ's policy stance.

looking back

Selling in Europe led to a slight drop to the previous day's low in New York, but the decline did not continue and was limited to a rebound.

summary

The dollar's strength prevailed in the early stages as the euro was sold off.

Temporarily fell below the previous day's low, but the decline did not accelerate and stalled.

The end of the day was marked by a return to a range and lack of direction.

Today's Price Movement

The high was near 1.1790 and the low was around 1.1729

Selling intensified in European markets and downward pressure was conscious

The price fell below the previous day's low during the New York session, but subsequently recovered to close at the 1.1740 level.

Background & Materials

Strong U.S. economic indicators supported the dollar.

In Europe, fiscal and political uncertainty weighed on the euro.

Markets remain aware of differences in Fed and ECB policy stances

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 1.1730 area worked as a downside support.

Failed to break through the upside resistance around 1.1790

The price range during the day was within 60-70 pips, and the trading was mainly range-bound.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The 1.1700-1.1800 range is in consciousness.

Continued to hover around the 20-day moving average with little sense of direction

Medium-term upside remains heavy due to the failure to exceed the return highs since August.

impression

Both the European hour sell-off and the NY hour test of lower prices lacked momentum.

Movement in response to materials was limited and did not lead to the formation of a major trend.

Eurodollar remains in a holding pattern

trade observations

Forward movement aimed at the previous day's low did not continue and the price range was limited.

Aiming for small gains in the reverse direction was the main focus.

The impression is that short-term price action worked better than waiting for a break

checklist

Will support for 1.1730 hold?

Whether or not resistance above 1.1790 can be broken

Continued focus on U.S. interest rate trends and ECB policy outlook

looking back

Selling began in Europe, hitting the previous day's low, and selling continued to dominate until late in New York.

summary

Selling of the pound prevailed due to awareness of the widening budget deficit and high inflation in the U.K.

The downside accelerated in the European hour and the rebound was limited in New York.

Couldn't pull back until the end of the day and closed at a lower level.

Today's Price Movement

The high was around 1.3559 and the low was around 1.3462

Selling intensified in European markets and continued to test the downward direction.

The dollar was also perceived as firm in New York, closing around 1.3470.

Background & Materials

Increased government borrowing in the U.K. has increased fiscal uncertainty.

Inflation remained high at 3.8%, narrowing the room for interest rate cuts, according to a growing number of observers.

Markets were aware that the Bank of England was cautious about cutting interest rates further

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 1.3460 level was temporarily recognized as support to the downside

Failed to break through due to the upside being restrained at around 1.3550.

Downward bias prevailed during the day.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The range is in the 1.3450-1.3600 range

Medium-term upside remains below the 50-day moving average

The adjustment phase starting from the August highs is continuing

impression

A day of easy selling for the pound due to awareness of UK-specific materials

The rebound phase, coupled with the strength of the dollar, was short and limited.

The market continued to test the lower limit of its holding range, and there was little sense of direction.

trade observations

It was a day when selling to break the previous day's low worked.

Short-term buying was not extended due to the predominant strategy of selling returns.

Although there was a price range, there was little trend continuity, and it was important to identify profit-taking.

checklist

Can the lower price near 1.3460 be maintained?

Can resistance above 1.3550 be broken through?

Focus on UK fiscal developments and changes in BoE policy stance

looking back

The price fell below the previous day's low during the Tokyo time and recovered temporarily in Europe, but sold off again in New York and closed at a new low.

summary

Weak Australian employment data and concerns about the Chinese economy weighed on the market.

A small buyback came in during the European hour, but not enough to change the flow.

Selling remained dominant at the end of the day in New York due to the dollar's firmness

Today's Price Movement

The high was around 0.6621 and the low was around 0.6585

The previous day's lows were tested to the downside during the Tokyo time.

The price closed around 0.6590 at the end of the day, falling on an intraday basis.

Background & Materials

Australian employment numbers fell short of expectations, a negative factor for the Australian dollar.

U.S. interest rate outlook supported the dollar and weakened the Australian dollar relative to the U.S.

Fears of a slowdown in Chinese demand weighed on the Australian currency, which is a resource-exporting country.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

0.6580 to 0.6590 was considered as short-term downside support.

Rebound was restrained with the area around 0.6620 acting as upside resistance.

Downward pressure continued in the short term

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The range of 0.6550-0.6650 is being considered.

The adjustment trend continued below the 20-day moving average

The upward pressure is conspicuous by its inability to exceed the return highs since July.

impression

The Australian dollar remained susceptible to selling in a straightforward reaction in line with the material

There was a temporary buyback, but it was not sustainable.

A weak day for the Australian dollar with some support on the US dollar side.

trade observations

A move to break below the previous day's low was likely to work.

Return selling strategies prevailed and short-term buying saw limited margins.

Intraday volatility was not great and short-term contrarianism was difficult.

checklist

Will the lower price around 0.6580 be maintained?

Can it break through the upside resistance above 0.6620?

Focus on Australian economic indicators and the impact of China-related developments