Market Summary

After digesting the previous day's policy rate announcement, the market is lacking a sense of direction in the absence of new material.

While attention continues to focus on the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut and comments from Fed officials, the BOJ maintains an accommodative stance.

There is still a sense of caution about currency intervention, and the market remains range-bound as it waits for indicators and statements.

Assumed range

The lower limit is expected to be around 147.20 and the upper limit is expected to be in the range around 148.80.

It may temporarily swing up or down depending on changes in U.S. interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields.

Asian hours are likely to continue to see narrow price movements centered around 148 yen.

tactics

Basically, the range rotation is the axis, with an eye on buying at the upper ¥147 level and selling back at the upper ¥148 level.

Since there are few new materials in the short term, a strategy of targeting small price ranges is appropriate.

It is safe to keep positions light in anticipation of U.S. economic indicators later in the week.

trigger

The guideline for an upward breakout is a clear move above 149.00.

A downside is below 147.00, which could increase selling pressure.

U.S. indices to be released between European and New York hours will be a factor in short-term volatility.

override condition

If 148.80 is clearly established above, the range assumption will be negated and the pair will move to test the upside.

The range scenario will also break down if the price continues to fall below 147.00.

In the event of a sudden intervention report, the scenario itself is nullified.

risk event

U.S. economic indicators (housing-related, consumer confidence, etc.).

Statement by Fed officials.

Currency-related comments and suggestions of intervention by the Japanese government and Bank of Japan.

Position Management

Position size is adjusted to a smaller size based on range tactics.

Take profits as early as 20 to 30 pips.

Stop-losses are set when a clear breakout of the most recent support/resistance is reached.

checklist

Check for changes in U.S. interest rates and bond yields.

Check out what the Bank of Japan and government officials have to say.

Risk management in preparation for the release of U.S. economic indicators in NY time.

Market Summary

The day before, there was no sign of a move lower, and selling prevailed throughout the day.

Continued awareness of the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut and comments by Fed officials

ECB's additional easing speculation is receding, and the difference in policy stance is affecting the market.

Assumed range

Assuming a lower limit around 1.1700 and an upper limit around 1.1825

The 1.1730 area is in mind, but no clear support has been established.

In the short term, volatility may increase in response to movements in U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index

tactics

Currently, the main response is to sell on the return and be aware of the heaviness of the upside.

Sell entry can be considered for the return phase around 1.1800.

Due to the absence of support, be sure to take profits as soon as possible after entering the market.

trigger

Upward breakout may change the flow if 1.1830 is clearly crossed

Downside is below 1.1700 and selling pressure is expected to increase.

Economic indicators in the European hour and U.S. indicators in the New York hour will provide short-term momentum.

override condition

If it settles above 1.1830, the return strategy is negated.

Scenario also breaks down if stable downside formation is confirmed without testing below 1.1700

Sudden policy statements or interventionist comments invalidate the assumption itself.

risk event

Preliminary Eurozone PMI and inflation-related indicators

Fed officials' statements and U.S. housing-related indicators

Comments from government officials suggesting foreign exchange intervention or policy responses

Position Management

Position size is adjusted to a smaller size to limit risk.

The profit target is about 20 to 30 pips and is fixed earlier.

Stop-losses are set when the expected range is clearly outside the expected range.

checklist

1. Watch for a break of 1,700

Confirm what the ECB and Fed have said

Check the direction of U.S. interest rate trends and the U.S. dollar index

Market Summary

Selling prevailed throughout the day with no consolidating movement on the previous day.

U.S. rate cut speculation and Fed comments support the dollar

Conscious of sticky UK inflation and BoE's cautious stance

Assumed range

Assuming a range centered around 1.3450-1.3600

The lower boundary is around 1.3450, while the upper boundary is around 1.3600.

Asian hours expected to consolidate around 1.3500

tactics

Basis is short-term rotation based on return sales

Consider light selling on returns around 1.3580-1.3600

On the downside, buy back thin to see reaction at 1.3460-1.3450

trigger

Above 1.3610 to the upside, buyers are cautioned against unwinding.

Downside momentum below 1.3450 to watch for downward momentum.

Short-term starting point for indicators in European hours and interest rate trends in early New York

override condition

If the price settles above 1.3610 and continues to rise to higher levels

If the low is not broken below 1.3450 and the low is clear

When a policy statement or suggestion of intervention causes a sudden change in liquidity

risk event

UK PMI and employment-related results and fiscal policy headlines

Fed officials' statements and U.S. housing and consumption indicators

Fluctuations in U.K. long-term interest rates and deterioration in the supply-demand balance for government bonds

Position Management

Transaction size is controlled to 50-70% of normal

The stop loss is executed by machine when the trigger is exceeded.

Priority is given to hedging existing positions before and after the announcement.

checklist

1.3450 and possible break above 1.3610

Direction of UK long-term interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields

Scheduled major indices and key figures' statements for European time

Market Summary

The previous day did not see a firming of the bottom and selling was predominant throughout the day, limiting returns.

RBA maintains cautious stance while confirming slowing inflation U.S. dollar relatively firm with rate cut expected depending on data

Chinese economy and resource price swings are likely to influence sentiment

Assumed range

Assuming a range centered around 0.6540-0.6680

The lower boundary is around 0.6540, while the upper boundary is around 0.6680-0.6700.

Asian hours expected to hover around 0.6600

tactics

Basis is short-term, steady response based on range rotation.

Buy on reaction at 0.6550-0.6540 and sell back at 0.6680-0.6700

Keep positions light and avoid one-way chasing before and after events.

trigger

Above 0.6700 to the upside, watch for acceleration of buybacks.

Downside is below 0.6540, noting the risk of continued downward pressure.

Australia-related headlines and Chinese indicators US interest rate trends in NY time will be the starting point for the short term

override condition

If the price settles above 0.6700 and continues to rise higher, the return assumption will be broken.

Downward bias recedes if the low is not broken below 0.6540 and the low is clear.

If the volatility changes suddenly due to unexpected policy statements or suggestions of intervention, the scenario will be reverted to a clean slate.

risk event

Related to RBA key figures' statements and minutes

China PMI and real estate news and iron ore prices

U.S. housing indicators and statements by Fed officials

Position Management

Transaction size is controlled to 50-70% of normal

Interest gains are executed in steps of 15 to 30 pips.

Losses are mechanically implemented by crossing the trigger to prevent average cost deterioration.

checklist

0.6540 and possible break above 0.6700

China Indicators and Iron Ore Futures Direction

Trends in U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index

looking back

With a lack of new materials after the U.S. FOMC meeting the previous week, the market was generally trading in a narrow range, with a slight renewal of the previous day's highs in Tokyo but a return to the highs in Europe prevailing.

summary

The Japanese side had limited sense of direction as they awaited US interest rates and comments from Fed officials, while the Japanese side was conscious of the Bank of Japan's stance and the possibility of intervention.

The upper price was heavy in the upper 148 yen range, while the lower price was in the upper 147 yen range, looking for a push

Today's Price Movement

After a slightly higher Tokyo time, sell-offs prevailed as we entered Europe.

In the New York time, the price range was limited during the day due to a lack of movement as the market awaited indicators.

Background & Materials

Mixed views on the path of interest rate cuts after the FOMC meeting, with the currency linked to small swings in U.S. interest rates

On the Japanese side, the policy unchanged and the authorities remained wary of headline statements.

Lack of external shocks and a mood of waiting for events contributed to maintaining the range.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Returns are likely around 148.20 and pushback remains around 147.70

Short-term moving averages were flat and oscillators were in and out of the neutral zone

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The resistance in the mid-148 yen range was not clearly crossed, and the daily attempt to test the upper end of the range was unsuccessful

The support zone in the mid-147 yen range was maintained and the upper and lower balances remained close to each other

impression

Position adjustment was the main focus for the material, with predominant trading being in the form of preliminary trading.

The liquidity decline prior to the event also made it hard to take a price range.

trade observations

The tactic of ticking finely with a focus on the limit price was easy to function, and it was safe to set a shallow price range for the reverse

Losses were limited to the outside of recent highs and lows, and position size was managed in a restrained manner

checklist

Check the schedule for U.S. interest rates and key figures' statements

Watch for authority statements and intervention-related headlines.

Reexamine liquidity in Asia, Europe, and New York in their respective time zones

looking back

Bidding began in Europe and was temporarily pushed down in New York, but buying once again prevailed and the market closed slightly higher than the previous day's highs.

summary

Clues were limited after the FOMC passed the previous week, and the mood remained one of waiting for U.S. interest rates and Fed officials' comments

Comments from ECB officials and firmness of European indicators are perceived as support for the euro

The daily price range was relatively small, and it was difficult to get a sense of direction.

Today's Price Movement

The market continued to test the recovery as buyers continued to push the market toward the end of the European hour.

A slight sell-off in the early part of the New York session due to a small rebound in interest rates was followed by a predominant buy-back

The close remained high and ended slightly above the previous day's high.

Background & Materials

U.S. Currencies React to Small Swings in U.S. Interest Rates as Views Mixed on Post-FOMC Rate Cut Path

Eurozone is aware of officials' statements and business confidence-related headlines as support for the euro

Aggressive position taking was limited ahead of major events.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 1.18 area was easily recognized as a return guideline and a milestone on the upside.

The push is now aware of the upper 1.17s, which is a candidate for short-term support.

Short-term moving averages were flat and oscillators remained in and out of the neutral zone.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily trend remains in a range, and the direction is still difficult to determine.

Continued to move within the band of recent highs and lows, and volume and consolidation are needed to confirm a break

On a weekly basis, a balance was maintained between return selling and push-buying.

impression

Flow-driven swings were noticeable amidst the wait for events, and the rotation of short-term forces was the main focus.

Tone easily changed with or without headlines, and ups and downs were suppressed by the thickness of actual demand.

Difficult to run in one direction, buybacks prevailed toward the close.

trade observations

It was a day when a limit-centered, contrarian, short-term rotation was more likely to work.

The operation of taking profits shallowly and limiting losses to outside the most recent milestone was effective.

Position size was restrained and new was cautious around interest rate headlines.

checklist

Check the schedule of major indicators and key figures' statements for the next business day

Inspect the board situation around 1.18 and the impact of option-related issues.

Reaffirming the strength of the hourly swings and correlations in U.S. interest rates

looking back

Despite a lack of new materials, the lack of growth in U.S. interest rates restrained the dollar's upward movement, which was temporarily pushed down in New York by buying from Europe, but buying once again prevailed and the dollar closed slightly higher on the day.

summary

Positive direction was limited as the market awaited comments from key U.S. officials while keeping in mind the persistence of U.K. inflation and the expectation of BoE remaining unchanged.

Fiscal headlines remained alarming while sluggish dollar growth supported the pound

The market remained in a range during the day and maintained a return trend toward the end of the day.

Today's Price Movement

The price was dominated by buyers and recovered around 1.3500 through European trading hours.

Pushed by a small rebound in interest rates early in the New York session, but the downside was limited and the buyers were buying back in again.

The intraday range was generally 1.3450-1.3520, holding higher at the end of the day.

Background & Materials

After the FOMC meeting the previous week, U.S. interest rates were only slightly volatile, and the currency remained in a mood of waiting for clues.

On the U.K. side, inflation remained high and BoE's cautious stance was noted, and the prospect of early significant easing receded.

Concerns about fiscal and long-term interest rate trends restrained the upside, while real demand buying supported the downside.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 1.3520 area was considered as upside resistance, and the 1.3450 area was the target for a push.

1.3500 acted as a short-term pivot and was prone to vertical rotation.

Short-term moving averages were flat and oscillators were mainly in neutral territory.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The pair continues to hover within a wide range of 1.3400-1.3600 and continues to move back and forth between the upper and lower bounds.

Daily return highs are small and have not yet formed a clear trend

As long as there is no confirmation of an above-range breakout accompanied by an increase in volume, an in-range assessment was seen as appropriate.

impression

The price movement was slow during the period when the market was flow-driven and waiting for key figures to make statements, with a noticeable wait-and-see attitude.

The market was led by buybacks, but it was difficult to move in one direction, which was typical of pre-event conditions.

trade observations

The range rotation centered on the limit price was effective, and the operation of chopping profits shallowly worked.

Losses were limited to the top of 1.3520 and the bottom of 1.3450, outside of the most recent section, and size was restrained.

checklist

Reconfirm the time of major U.S. and U.K. indices and key figures' statements for the next business day

Check the board and option-related due dates and strikes in the vicinity of 1.3500

Inspect the direction and strength of correlation between U.K. and U.S. interest rates.

looking back

After hitting the previous day's low in Tokyo, the market tested lower in Europe and New York, but momentum was weak and the range remained narrow throughout the day.

summary

The Australian dollar lacked direction as U.S. interest rates swung only slightly after the FOMC passed the previous week and the dollar's strength and weakness were unclear.

Aggressive trend formation was not seen due to the RBA's cautious stance and a wait-and-see attitude toward the Chinese economy and resource prices.

While returns were slow, the rush selling did not continue, and the day was dominated by traffic.

Today's Price Movement

The downward push was preceded by a drop below the previous day's low in Tokyo hours, but the follow-through was limited.

The price range converged around the 0.66 area, with a small return each time the price tested lower in Europe and New York.

Flows intersected at different times of the day, making it difficult for the market to run in one direction.

Background & Materials

The U.S. dollar tended to be sluggish as U.S. interest rates lacked direction ahead of key U.S. officials' statements and indicators.

The RBA's stance was cautious, waiting for confirmation of Australian indicators, and new material was scarce.

Headlines related to China and iron ore prices tended to influence sentiment.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 0.6600 area was considered as a pivot, and the upside was easy to sell back around 0.6620.

On the downside, a pushback was easy to follow even if the breakout remained around 0.6580, and the rebound was slow to follow.

Short-term oscillators remained in neutral territory and trend indicators were flat.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily price is range-bound with a support band in the upper 0.65s while the daily return high is falling back.

The direction of the moving averages flattened out and the direction remained uncertain.

Clear break judgments required an established closing price base and accompanying volume.

impression

The combination of material difficulties and the wait for events made it difficult to get a price range, and the headlines were noticeably shaken up in small pieces.

The impression was that arbitrage and real demand flows were intermittent, holding back the ups and downs and preventing the formation of a trend.

trade observations

It was easy to function in a reverse-oriented range rotation, and it was effective to take profits in shallow increments.

Stops were limited to the outside of the most recent swing and size was restrained to 50-70% of normal.

Aiming for a break, I clarified the conditions in advance and focused on the time of day and liquidity to enter the market.

checklist

Hourly swings in U.S. interest rates and the direction of the dollar index

Schedule of RBA Key Figures and Australian Indicators

China-Related Headlines and Iron Ore Futures