Market Summary

On the previous day, the price reached a new high in Tokyo time, but the push was shallow due to selling from Europe.

With Japan closed today and liquidity limited, the environment will continue to be easily led by overseas trends.

The prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut, the Bank of Japan's policy stance, and uncertainty over the party leadership election continue to be material factors.

Assumed range

We expect the price to hover around 146.70-148.20.

On the upside, the area around 148.20 is likely to be considered as a resistance zone.

On the downside, the area around 146.70 is considered as support.

tactics

In situations where liquidity is likely to decline, range rotation will be the basis.

In the short term, we will respond in small increments, keeping an eye on the direction of overseas hours.

Avoid building an unreasonable position and wait until you see the range of adjustment before starting a position.

trigger

Note that a clear break above 148.20 could test higher.

A break below 146.70 would likely tilt the trend toward a yen buy-dominant trend.

The timing of the U.S. PMI and remarks by Fed officials could intensify volatility.

override condition

A strong rise above 148.50 would negate the upper limit of the assumed range.

If the decline below 146.40 continues, we will be forced to revise our downside assumptions.

A tactical review is also necessary in cases where the holding is prolonged and the sense of direction is extremely poor.

risk event

Major economic indicators such as U.S. services PMI and durable goods orders.

Suggestions of a revision in the monetary policy stance through comments by Fed officials.

Reports related to the Japanese party election and speculation about currency intervention.

Position Management

Prioritize risk management by keeping position size at about half the normal level.

The profit margin is chopped in small increments of 10 to 20 pips.

Stop-losses should be set only at levels outside the expected range.

checklist

Confirm price action led by European and U.S. hours as Japan is closed.

Be sure to check the release time of U.S. economic indicators and the market reaction.

The levels of resistance and support zones are organized and addressed in advance.

Market Summary

The previous day was dominated by buying, and the euro recovered, but it has not consolidated to the downside and remains unstable

In the U.S., speculation over the timing of interest rate cuts continues to make it difficult to determine the direction of the U.S. dollar

ECB to maintain status quo, while European consumer confidence likely to remain weak

Assumed range

Assume price movements mainly around 1.1640-1.1800

Upside is likely to be aware of the 1.1800 area as a resistance zone

Lower price is confirmed as a support zone around 1.1640

tactics

Short-term range rotation is the basis of the range rotation.

Prioritize gains in line with small price movements between 1.1700

Refrain from building unreasonable positions as the direction is not set.

trigger

A clear break above 1.1800 is likely to strengthen the buyback trend.

A break below 1.1640 would likely lead to further euro selling.

Attention will be paid to the release time of the U.S. PMI and durable goods orders

override condition

Reject the upper range assumption if a strong rally above 1.1820 continues.

If the decline below 1.1620 continues, the downside assumption will need to be revised.

Tactics should also be reviewed in the event of prolonged holding and extremely low volume

risk event

Release of U.S. economic indicators and statements by Fed officials

Data on consumption trends in the euro area and statements by ECB officials

News reports and risk-averse market reaction to U.S. tariff policy

Position Management

Be cautious with position sizes, keeping them to about half the normal size.

The profit margin is chopped in small increments of 15 to 25 pips.

Stop-losses are set only at levels outside the expected range.

checklist

Check to see if the price holding between 1.1700 continues.

Be sure to check the time frame and market reaction to the release of U.S. economic indicators

Organize and respond to upper resistance and lower support levels in advance

Market Summary

The previous day was dominated by buying, and the pound recovered, but it has not consolidated to the downside and remains unstable

High inflation and rising public borrowing in the U.K. are market concerns

Speculation over the timing of the U.S. interest rate cut and statements by Fed officials are influencing the direction of the dollar.

Assumed range

The basic scenario is for the price to hover around 1.3350-1.3600

The upside is considered as a resistance zone around 1.3600-1.3670

The lower price is noted as a support band around 1.3350

tactics

Based on range rotation as it is difficult to establish a sense of direction

Consider selling on the return near the resistance zone and buying on the way down near the support zone.

Be prepared to switch policies flexibly in case of range exits

trigger

A clear break above 1.3670 would likely strengthen the buyback.

A break below 1.3350 would likely tilt the trend in favor of selling.

U.S. economic indicators and U.K.-related policy announcements are likely to attract attention

override condition

Reject the upper range assumption if the rise above 1.3700 continues.

If a break below 1.3300 is confirmed, the assumption of support to the downside needs to be revised.

Assumption accuracy decreases when market participants decline and volume is extremely low.

risk event

Announcement of UK inflation-related statistics and fiscal conditions

Major indicators such as U.S. services PMI and durable goods orders

Changes in policy stance due to statements by Fed and BoE officials

Position Management

Respond cautiously with less position size than usual.

The profit margin is chopped in small increments of 15 to 25 pips.

Losses are set at limited levels outside the expected range.

checklist

Be sure to check the release schedule of major economic indicators

Organize resistance and support zone levels in advance.

Prepare a plan for what to do if you go off range.

Market Summary

The day before, the market remained in a very narrow range and lacked a sense of direction

In Australia, inflation has calmed somewhat while the labor market lacks momentum

In the U.S., speculation over the timing of interest rate cuts continues to make it difficult to determine the direction of the dollar

Assumed range

Assume a basic trend around 0.6530-0.6700

Upside is likely to be aware of the 0.6700 area as a resistance zone

The lower price is noted as a support zone around 0.6530

tactics

Based on range rotation until a sense of direction is obtained.

Consider selling on the upside at resistance and buying on the downside at support.

If a break is confirmed, take a forward, go-with-the-flow posture.

trigger

A clear break above 0.6700 would likely lead to a stronger buyback.

Selling pressure is likely to prevail if the price breaks below 0.6530

U.S. economic indicators and Australia-related news could trigger volatility

override condition

Continued strong rally above 0.6720 would negate the upper range assumption.

If a decline below 0.6500 is confirmed, the downside assumption needs to be revised.

Tactics are less accurate when volume is extremely low and price movements are scarce

risk event

Release of major indicators such as U.S. services PMI and durable goods orders

Changes in Monetary Policy Stance as a Result of Statements by Fed Dignitaries

Impact of changes in Chinese economic trends and commodity prices

Position Management

Keep the position size smaller than usual and respond cautiously.

The profit margin is chopped in small increments of 15 to 25 pips.

Stop-losses are set only at levels outside the expected range.

checklist

Organize the upper and lower range levels in advance.

Be sure to check the time slots for the release of U.S. economic indicators

Be careful not to miss the impact of related news from Australia and China.

looking back

Selling started in Europe and recovered temporarily in New York, but sold off again in the second half of the day, resulting in a strong range feeling throughout the day.

summary

Struggling to extend before 148 yen and prone to return sales

Buying inserts in the second half of 147 yen and the downward push is slow.

Strongly waiting for events and waiting for confirmation of break

Today's Price Movement

Softening in early Europe due to predominant dollar selling

Temporary rebound due to buybacks after entering New York

Highs stalled again in the second half of New York

Background & Materials

U.S. PMI Weakness Considered, U.S. Interest Rates Weak to the Upside

Aggressive dollar buying limited as Fed officials convey cautious stance

In Japan, a sense of caution about interventionism is likely to remain.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Strong awareness of return around 148.00.

Underpinning awareness remains around 147.50

5-minute to 1-hour legs are a mixture of return selling and push-buying

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Daily range continues with limited direction

Conscious of the reaction around the 4-hour EMA as a milestone

Cautious to break above 148.20 until confirmation of consolidation above 148.20.

impression

Impression of many short-lived price movements due to material and technical conflicts

Before an event, positions tend to lighten and whiskers tend to appear.

Focus on reaction speed while keeping price range expectations low

trade observations

Impression that switching between short-term return and push-buy is more likely to work than waiting for a break

Be aware of spreads and slippage before and after indicators and limit the number of entries.

Set interest rates shallowly to limit risk of unexecuted contracts

checklist

Reconfirmation of Tokyo Metropolitan CPI and U.S. PCE times and forecasts

Observe volume and whiskers at 148.00 and 147.50

Inspect the execution method and the placement of the limit price before the news.

looking back

Mixed Eurozone PMI and weak U.S. PMI weighed on the market, with the PMI hovering narrowly around 1.18

summary

Materials are offset by the dollar's upside weakness and the euro's sluggish growth.

Wait-and-see prevails ahead of U.S. inflation indicators later in the week

Limited sense of direction and mainly short waves in and out

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo opened slightly higher than the previous day's high.

In Europe, the price range gradually narrowed as the market awaited indicators.

Converging within a range while buying back in the second half of New York

Background & Materials

Eurozone PMIs generally mixed with Germany stronger and France weaker

U.S. PMI slowed from the previous month, weighing on the dollar's upside ahead of interest rates.

Dignitaries' statements were marked by caution and limited aggressive follow-through.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Above is a return awareness at 1.1820-1.1840

Below, awareness of pushback around 1.1780.

Mixed rebound and stall around short-term EMA

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily trend continues to hold and is in a box color at 1.18±.

Momentum near neutral after adjustment from September highs

impression

Initial reaction immediately after the index is difficult to sustain and tends to revert to a traffic pattern.

Thin time frames tend to have whiskers and price chasing is more difficult.

trade observations

I have the impression that in-range contrarianism and shallow gains are more likely to work than waiting for a break.

Reduce lot size and frequency before and after events to avoid slippage

Limit price provides margin to withstand widening spreads

checklist

Reconfirm times and forecasts for major indicators such as U.S. PCE

Watch for ticks at 1.1820 and 1.1780

Pre-inspection of execution method and order placement

looking back

The downward pressure immediately after the index was limited and remained around 1.35 throughout the day, factoring in the slowdown in the U.K. PMI and weakness in the U.S. PMI.

summary

Materials were offsetting each other ahead of interest rates and lacked direction.

Position adjustments before the event continued and there were many short waves.

Today's Price Movement

Selling in Europe temporarily pushed lower after UK PMI

In New York, buyers returned to the market, but the upside was sluggish and there was a small round-trip.

Background & Materials

UK PMI slowed month-on-month, raising concerns about slowing growth

U.S. PMI also weakened, triggering the dollar's return to the upside.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

4-hour EMA catches up with price, return selling and push-buying mixed.

Sell awareness above at 1.35 high, buy awareness below at 1.34 high.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Daily trend is range-centered with holding continuing

Medium-term trend is still in the discernment phase after adjustment from September highs

impression

The initial reaction immediately after the index was difficult to follow and reversal was quick.

During times of thin volume, beards tend to appear and are difficult to follow.

trade observations

I have the impression that it is easier to work in a range and take a shallow profit than to wait for a break.

Prepare for slippage by limiting lot size and frequency before and after the index.

checklist

Reconfirmation of release times and forecasts of major indicators

Observed a reaction of 1.35 large and 1.34 low on the ticks.

Inspect spreads and execution methods before entry

looking back

Weakness in the U.S. PMI and slowdown in the Australian PMI were factored in for a slight bounce between 0.6580-0.6620.

summary

Materials are offset by the dollar's upside weakness and Australia's sluggish growth.

Strong wait-and-see attitude before the event, limited price range

Direction is waiting to be determined, mostly short waves.

Today's Price Movement

Buying entered after entering Europe and lifted to around the 4-hour EMA.

Upside slowed as sellers returned to the market by New York

Finally, the price closed around 0.6600 and continued to move slightly.

Background & Materials

U.S. PMI slows from the previous month and U.S. interest rates head down

Australian PMI Slows Manufacturing and Services, Limiting AUD Growth

Improvement in Eurozone PMIs and Country Differences Neutralize Risk Tolerance

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Above is the return to around 0.6620.

Below, awareness of pushback around 0.6580.

5-minute to 1-hour legs tend to continue to come and go around the EMA

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Box consciousness at 0.658-0.666 continues

Trend is slowing down as the market continues to attack around the 20-day line

Momentum neutral after adjustment from September highs

impression

Impression is that one direction immediately after the index is difficult to continue and reversal is quick.

Thinly-liquid time frames tend to produce whiskers and are more difficult to follow.

trade observations

I have the impression that it is easier to function with in-range contrarianism and shallow gains rather than aiming for a break.

Prepare for slippage by keeping lots and frequency low before and after events.

Limit prices are marginally positioned to withstand spread widening.

checklist

Confirmation of the attack and volume at 0.6620 and 0.6580.

Recheck the time and forecast values of key indicators

Check execution method and slippage settings in advance