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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | September IFO Business Confidence Index |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August New home sales [annualized] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August New home sales [month-over-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The dollar/yen has been lacking a sense of direction amid the shift in U.S. long-term interest rates and the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hike, while there remains a sense of caution about currency intervention. The previous day, the pair remained in the upper ¥147 to lower ¥148 range, with small movements in a narrow range throughout the day. The market is waiting for statements from U.S. financial officials and upcoming economic indicators. The market is waiting for the market to provide some new information.
The previous day saw the market move in a very narrow range and lacked a sense of direction. With inflation-related indicators and statements from monetary authorities in the U.S. in the spotlight, and concerns of an economic slowdown in the eurozone easily becoming a concern, investors were increasingly waiting for economic indicators from the U.S. and Europe as speculation regarding the pace of ECB rate cuts and the timing of U.S. rate cuts continued to be a factor.
The previous day saw only small movements in a very narrow range. The market continued to wait for materials amid concerns over high inflation and economic slowdown in the U.K., as well as speculation over the timing of the U.S. interest rate cut. In the U.K., PMI and other economic indicators were weak, and it is easy to be aware of concerns about the economy. Meanwhile, in the U.S., inflation-related data and statements by Fed officials are attracting attention and influencing the trend of the dollar.
The AUDUSD remained in a very narrow range on the previous day, with no sense of direction, as speculation over the timing of a U.S. interest rate cut and comments from Fed officials were the focus of attention, while the outlook for the Australian economy and the RBA's policy stance continued to be a factor. Developments in resource prices and the Chinese economy are also likely to affect the AUDUSD, which has room to fluctuate depending on investors' risk sentiment.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
In addition to continued dollar buying against the backdrop of rising U.S. long-term interest rates, the buying was further strengthened by better-than-expected U.S. economic indicators. Overall, the U.S. financial environment and the results of U.S. economic indicators had a major influence on the direction of the market.
Dollar buying continued against the backdrop of rising U.S. long-term interest rates and was further boosted by better-than-expected U.S. economic indicators. This was compounded by a weak German business sentiment index, which induced euro selling. Overall, the combination of weak U.S. financial conditions and European indicators weighed on the euro for the day.
The dollar continued to buy against the backdrop of rising U.S. long-term interest rates and further dollar buying was seen when U.S. economic indicators exceeded expectations. Overall, the day was marked by a mixed trend of the market being led by the U.S. interest rate and indicator results, but also by a search for room for a return.
The Australian CPI released during the Tokyo session exceeded expectations and the dollar was bought, temporarily recovering to the 0.6620 level. In the New York market, US economic indicators exceeded expectations and further dollar buying pushed the Australian dollar down. As a result, the market was at the mercy of materials for the rest of the day, with both the previous day's highs and lows being renewed.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
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session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The dollar was in a small range of the upper 147 yen to lower 148 yen, with little sense of direction.
While investors were aware of rising U.S. long-term interest rates and the possibility of an additional interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, intervention warnings restrained upside.
The atmosphere of waiting for materials is strong, and attention is focused on statements by financial officials and economic indicators.
Assumed range
Conscious of the range around 147.50 to 148.60.
Both top and bottom may be temporarily expanded depending on materials.
Currently, the phase is likely to continue to swing within the range.
tactics
Since it is difficult to get a sense of direction, the main response is to be aware of range rotation.
In the short term, combine buybacks near support and gains at resistance.
It is important not to pull too much into a position until there is a major trend.
trigger
A clear break above 148.60 could be a test to the upside.
A break below 147.50 would be considered a further adjustment.
U.S. economic indicators and statements by financial officials are likely to be short-term volatile factors.
override condition
If the range between 147.50 and 148.60 continues to hold, breakout expectations will recede.
Need to modify tactics if there is no significant movement after the event passes.
Do not assume too much in one direction, but be flexible on the assumption that the range will continue.
risk event
Release of U.S. economic indicators (housing-related, PMI, etc.).
Changes in the interest rate outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials.
Whether or not the Bank of Japan or the government has issued an intervention alert.
Position Management
The range strategy reduces position size and is divided into multiple times.
The interest rate should be frequently set at around 0.20 to 0.30 yen.
Losses are thoroughly cut when a clear breakout of support or resistance occurs.
checklist
Confirm the linkage between U.S. long-term interest rates and the dollar-yen.
Follow the Bank of Japan's stance and intervention-related statements.
To understand the time and market reaction to the release of major economic indicators.
Market Summary
Eurodollar in a very narrow range from the high $1.18s to just before $1.19
Continued awareness of speculation regarding the pace of ECB rate cuts and the timing of U.S. rate cuts
The market continued to lack a sense of direction, as the market was increasingly waiting for economic indicators from the U.S. and Europe.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 1.1780 to 1.1920
Both upside and downside are in need of material for a clear break.
In the short term, reactions are likely to be mainly within a range
tactics
Appropriate response based on range rotation in light of lack of sense of direction
Buy at the support area and sell back at the resistance area
Emphasis on not pursuing positions too deeply until strong material is available.
trigger
Conscious of a test to the upside if 1.1920 is clearly exceeded.
Watch for further adjustment if below 1.1780.
US inflation-related indicators and statements by Fed officials will be a factor in short-term volatility
override condition
Break expectations recede if the range between 1.1780 and 1.1920 continues to hold
Need to revise the scenario if there is no sense of direction after the event.
Avoid bias in one direction and be flexible to stay within the range
risk event
Release of U.S. inflation-related indicators and consumer confidence index
Statements by ECB Governing Council members and indications on the policy outlook
Global economic slowdown concerns and tariff-related reports from the U.S. and Europe
Position Management
Position size is kept low and spread over multiple times
Interest rates are frequently set at around 0.0020 to 0.0030.
Losses are strictly at clear breaks above and below the range.
checklist
To check the release times of major economic indicators in the U.S. and Europe
Understanding the tone of ECB and Fed key figures' statements
To see how the market values the levels of 1.1780 and 1.1920
Market Summary
Pound dollar in a narrow range in the mid-$1.34s to low $1.35s
Environment of high inflation and concerns about economic slowdown in the U.K.
In the U.S., inflation-related data and statements by Fed officials are in the spotlight and lack direction
Assumed range
Assumed price movement around 1.3450-1.3550
Both up and down need new material to get a clear direction
Phase likely to remain within a range of reactions in the short term
tactics
Based on the lack of sense of direction, a response based on range rotation is appropriate.
Consider buying on the push near support and choose to sell on the return at resistance.
Do not hold a position for long until a major trend is formed
trigger
Conscious of a test to the upside if 1.3550 is clearly exceeded
Beware of an adjustive move if it breaks below 1.3450.
U.S. inflation-related indicators and U.K. economic indicators are likely to be short-term triggers
override condition
If the range between 1.3450 and 1.3550 continues for a long time, break expectations will recede
Revised scenario if movement is limited even after the release of the indicator
Responding based on the assumption that the range will continue, without bias toward one directional expectation
risk event
U.S. inflation-related indicators and employment statistics results
Release of UK PMI and other economic data
Market reaction to policy statements by Fed and BoE officials
Position Management
Keep position size small and spread out over multiple times
Interest rates are frequently set at around 0.0020 to 0.0030.
Losses are thorough when there is a clear break above or below the range.
checklist
Check the schedule for the release of major economic indicators in the U.S. and the U.K.
Understanding the tone of statements by BoE and Fed officials
To check the market reaction at the levels of 1.3450 and 1.3550
Market Summary
AUD/USD in a very narrow range around the 0.6600 level
Speculation over the timing of the U.S. interest rate cut and comments by Fed officials will be the focus of attention
The Australian economy, the RBA's policy stance, resource prices, and the Chinese economy will also be a focus of attention.
Assumed range
Range assumed to be around 0.6580-0.6630
Both upside and downside breakouts are limited without new material
In the short term, the situation is likely to continue to move back and forth within this range
tactics
Effective response with emphasis on range rotation based on lack of sense of direction
Consider buying on the push near support and selling on the return near resistance.
Priority is given to short-term settlement until a major trend occurs.
trigger
A break above 0.6630 would be a short-term test to the upside.
Watch for further adjustment if below 0.6580.
U.S. inflation indicators and Australian economic data are likely to trigger volatility
override condition
Break expectations recede if the range of 0.6580-0.6630 continues to hold
Need to modify tactics if there is little movement after the release of the index
Do not raise expectations too much in one direction and continue to assume range continuation
risk event
Release of U.S. inflation-related indicators and employment-related data
Major economic indicators such as CPI and PMI in Australia
Changes in economic trends and resource prices in China
Position Management
Position size is controlled and small increments are handled.
The interest rate is set at around 0.0020 to 0.0030
Losses are thorough when there is a clear break above or below the range.
checklist
To check the release times of major economic indicators in the U.S. and Australia
Follow what Fed and RBA officials say
To understand the market reaction at the levels of 0.6580 and 0.6630
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
The dollar was predominantly bought on the back of rising U.S. long-term interest rates and favorable results of U.S. indicators, temporarily rising to the upper 148-yen level and closing at a higher level.
summary
The Tokyo session was dominated by price movements in the mid-147 yen range, lacking a sense of direction.
After European hours, dollar buying strengthened against the backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates and stock prices, rising to the mid-148 yen level.
The NY session was pushed back to the upside due to sluggish U.S. interest rate growth.
Today's Price Movement
The Tokyo market continued to trade in a small range around 147.60.
From European hours, dollar buying strengthened in tandem with rising U.S. interest rates and rose to around 148.50.
In the New York session, interest rates headed back down, and the market was pushed slightly lower from the highs at times.
Background & Materials
The rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was the main factor supporting the dollar/yen.
U.S. new home sales and other indicators exceeded expectations, increasing dollar buying pressure.
The cautious stance of Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, also helped to slightly reduce expectations of a rate cut.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
On the upside, the area around 148.50 was perceived as resistance.
On the downside, the support zone was 147.00-147.50, where buying support was in place.
In the short term, the phase of the market continued to be prone to range-bound trading.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
A wider daily range has formed from the low 147 yen to mid 148 yen.
The 200-day moving average is considered as support to the downside, and the medium-term direction is not clear.
Unless there is a major break, the market may continue to move up and down based on interest rate trends for the time being.
impression
The day was one in which statements on U.S. monetary policy and changes in interest rates were directly reflected in the dollar-yen exchange rate.
The combination of indicator results and interest rates dictated price movements, a typical material-driven development.
The impact of stock prices and risk appetite also played a role in the direction of the market.
trade observations
Short-term traders were aware of a return to the 148.50 area and saw some profit-taking.
Pushback from the upper ¥147 level remained effective, with the main response being within the range.
It was difficult to determine the direction of the market, and it was noticeable that investors were avoiding excessive positions.
checklist
Check the trend of U.S. interest rates and the bond market.
Watch for future U.S. economic indicators and statements from Fed officials.
Determine the reaction within the range of 147.00-148.50.
looking back
The euro was pushed lower as dollar buying prevailed on the back of higher U.S. long-term interest rates and strong U.S. index results.
summary
Higher U.S. interest rates supported the dollar, pushing the eurodollar lower from around 1.1820.
Weak results in the German business sentiment index added to euro selling pressure.
Higher-than-expected U.S. economic indicators reinforced the dollar's strength and weighed on the euro.
Today's Price Movement
A test of the 1.1820 area was seen in the early stages of the session.
Selling was dominated by the release of the business sentiment index in European hours.
Toward the New York time, the rate fell below 1.1800 against the backdrop of the U.S. interest rate trend.
Background & Materials
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose and the dollar continued to buy.
U.S. new home sales and other indicators exceeded expectations, supporting dollar strength.
A weak German IFO business sentiment index triggered euro selling.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 1.1820 area was perceived as upside resistance.
The downside was around 1.1790-1.1800.
In the short term, the market remained within a range linked to interest rate trends.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Failure to exceed 1.1850 confirmed the strength of the upper range.
The area around 1.1750 is in focus as medium-term support.
Direction is not set in stone, and interest rates and economic indicators continue to easily dictate the flow of interest rates.
impression
While the U.S. financial environment was directing the overall market direction, weak European indicators were overlapping.
The situation confirmed that the euro is likely to come under increasing pressure to return to the market.
The market was sensitive to the U.S. interest rate trend, and the day was punctuated by up and down movements.
trade observations
The return to the market around 1.1820 was an easy phase to be aware of.
Short-term trading was the main focus as the price attacked the 1.1800 level.
It was difficult to find a major direction, and many trades prioritized gains.
checklist
Check US interest rates and bond market movements.
Weakness in European economic indicators should be closely monitored.
To determine the reaction in the range of 1.1790-1.1820.
looking back
The pound was pushed lower by the dollar's predominance in response to higher U.S. long-term interest rates and better-than-expected U.S. indicators, but was partially bought back in the New York market.
summary
The dollar was bought early in the day on the strength of the U.S. financial environment.
The pound was also hit by a combination of cautious views on the U.K. economy.
In the New York session, there were signs of a buy-back, and the market closed slightly lower.
Today's Price Movement
The London session saw a gradual decline from the 1.3520 area to around 1.3450.
The dollar continued to strengthen against the backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates.
In the New York market, short-term buybacks led to some downside.
Background & Materials
The rise in the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note triggered dollar buying.
U.S. economic indicators exceeded expectations, supporting dollar dominance.
Concerns about business confidence in the U.K. were also a factor limiting the pound's upside.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 1.3520 area was perceived as upside resistance.
The trading action was concentrated around the 1.3450 area as the lower boundary.
In the short term, the market swung only within a range.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Failure to break above 1.3600 reaffirms the upward pressure.
The 1.3400 area is considered as medium-term support.
The convergence of moving averages continued and the market remained directionless.
impression
U.S. interest rates and index results were the driving factors in the market.
With a lack of clear material on the UK side, the situation continued to be easily swayed by US factors.
The day was characterized by a mixture of buying and selling pressure, and a lack of direction.
trade observations
Short-term sellers were more conscious of a return to the 1.3520 area, and short-term sellers were more likely to close their hands.
Some pushback around 1.3450 confirmed the hardness of the downside.
In the short term, most of the trading was centered on gains and losses.
checklist
Continuously monitor U.S. interest rate trends and economic indicators.
Consider trading strategies based on the 1.3450-1.3520 range.
Watch the impact of U.K. economic indicators and key figures' statements.
looking back
Strong results from the Australian CPI bought the Australian dollar, but rising U.S. interest rates and favorable results from U.S. indicators led to dollar buying, which pushed both the previous day's highs and lows higher.
summary
In Tokyo hours, Australian dollar buying was led by Australian indices.
In European hours, dollar buying strengthened on the back of rising U.S. long-term interest rates.
The Australian dollar was pushed lower in the New York session, driven by an uptick in U.S. indicators.
Today's Price Movement
The price rose to the 0.6620 level during Tokyo hours.
In European hours, the dollar was in a reversal decline due to the dollar's predominant buying power.
In NY hours, the pair was pushed down to around 0.6580 following the U.S. index.
Background & Materials
Australian CPI exceeded expectations and pushed back the prospect of an interest rate cut.
Rising U.S. long-term interest rates supported dollar buying.
U.S. new home sales and other economic indicators exceeded expectations, strengthening dollar demand.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 0.6620 area was perceived as upside resistance.
The price was seen around 0.6575 as a lower boundary, and a short-term offensive was seen.
Volatility increased as the previous day's range was extended both up and down.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
0.6700 is considered as a medium-term resistance.
The area around 0.6500 was considered a support zone and a confirmation of the firmness of the market.
The convergence of moving averages continues, and the market remains directionless.
impression
The strength of Australian indicators provided temporary support, but U.S. factors took the lead.
The dollar-led development made it an easy day for the Australian dollar to make a limited return.
Markets reacted strongly to U.S. interest rates and U.S. indicators, with the Australian factor in relative retreat.
trade observations
A return to the 0.6620 area was noted in the short term.
There was some pushback around 0.6580.
Short-term trading and profit-taking were prominent due to lack of sense of direction.
checklist
Continue to monitor the results of Australian economic indicators
Keep a close watch on U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index.
To determine the reaction within the range of 0.6575 to 0.6620.
FX Diary