Market Summary

The dollar is still in a strong buying trend and is expected to approach 149 yen as the US interest rate is expected to be lowered despite the BoJ member's mention of an interest rate hike and the ETF reduction policy.

The dollar was the main buyer throughout the day, and the immediate focus is on the intersection of U.S. monetary policy developments and domestic policy uncertainties.

Assumed range

Assume price movement around 147.80-149.50.

The 149-yen level will be considered as upside resistance, and the upper 147-yen level will be the lower bound.

tactics

The basic stance is to be aware of range rotation.

Flexible use of push-buying at the 148-yen level and return selling at the 149-yen level.

trigger

Buybacks may accelerate above 149.50.

Selling is predominant below 147.80.

Be wary of further volatility during the time of release of U.S. economic indicators.

override condition

A clear break below 147.50 would negate the upside test scenario.

Conversely, a break above 150.00 could invalidate the range tactic and move into a new phase.

risk event

Release of U.S. GDP and PCE deflator.

Bank of Japan related statements and outlook for upcoming policy.

Geopolitical risks and sharp fluctuations in the stock market.

Position Management

Keep the position size to about half the normal size.

The profit target is set at 30-50 pips.

Ensure that losses are taken as early as possible, with a target of 20 to 30 pips.

checklist

To confirm the trend of U.S. interest rates and the degree of revision in interest rate cut expectations.

To understand the market reaction to the Bank of Japan's policy stance and statements by key figures.

Carefully observe reactions at key technical levels.

Market Summary

Eurodollar is weighed down by declining business confidence in Germany, while Eurozone PMI is picking up, and materials are mixed.

The dollar was bid higher amid speculation of a U.S. interest rate cut, testing the 1.1750 level.

Assumed range

Assuming price movement around 1.1700-1.1850

The 1.1750 area will remain in play, with the 1.1700s on the downside and the 1.1850 area on the upside as a resistance zone.

tactics

Basically adopts a stance centered on range rotation

A flexible response is required to consider buying at the 1.1700 level and selling back at the 1.1850 level.

trigger

Scenario where buybacks are likely to strengthen above 1.1860.

Selling pressure may increase below 1.1700

Beware of fluctuations during the release time of U.S. economic indicators and European related statistics

override condition

A clear break below 1.1670 would negate the range strategy.

Conversely, if the price breaks through 1.1900, a new upward trend will need to be assumed.

risk event

U.S. PCE deflator and employment-related indicators

Eurozone inflation indicators and statements from ECB officials

Geopolitical risks and sudden fluctuations in the stock market

Position Management

Position size is controlled to about half the normal size

The target profit margin is 30-50 pips.

Ensure that losses are taken early with 20 to 30 pips.

checklist

To confirm changes in U.S. interest rate trends and expectations of interest rate cuts

To understand the market reaction to major eurozone indicators and ECB statements

Careful observation of price movements at the technical levels 1.1700 and 1.1850

Market Summary

The pound dollar is being weighed down by declining PMI and fiscal concerns in the U.K., while BoE officials' cautious stance on interest rate cuts is being viewed as a supportive factor.

In the U.S., cautious comments from Fed officials shook expectations of a rate cut, and the dollar continued to be the predominant buyer.

Assumed range

Assuming price movement around 1.3400-1.3550

The focus will be on the 1.3450 area, where downside support and upside resistance are being considered.

tactics

Adopt a flexible stance based on range rotation

Combine push-backs in lower price ranges and return-sales in higher price ranges

trigger

A break above 1.3560 could strengthen the buyback.

A break below 1.3400 would increase selling pressure.

Be alert for volatility during the release of U.S. economic indicators and U.K.-related statistics

override condition

A clear drop below 1.3380 would negate the push-back strategy.

Conversely, if 1.3600 is breached, range tactics may be invalidated and a new phase of the market may be initiated

risk event

Publication of UK GDP and inflation-related indicators

Release of U.S. PCE deflator and employment statistics

Renewed concern about the UK fiscal situation and the government bond market

Position Management

Keep position size to about half the normal size.

Priority is placed on securing solid profits with a profit target of 30-50 pips.

Ensure that you take action as early as possible to cut your losses by 20 to 30 pips.

checklist

To confirm the statements of key BOE officials and the change in their cautious stance on interest rate cuts.

To understand the market's reaction to statements by Fed officials and U.S. interest rate trends

Careful observation of price movements at the main technical levels 1.3400 and 1.3550

Market Summary

Australian CPI exceeded expectations, raising concerns about persistent inflation and reducing expectations of a rate cut by the RBA.

In the U.S., comments by Fed officials shook expectations of an interest rate cut and the trend of dollar buying remained strong.

Assumed range

Assuming price movement around 0.6550-0.6680

The 0.6580 area is expected to be considered as a downside support and the 0.6700 area as an upside resistance.

tactics

A stance based on buying at the push point is effective

Consider buying small lots as long as 0.6580 can be maintained, and consider short-term gains on the upside.

trigger

A clear break above 0.6700 could accelerate buybacks

Selling pressure will increase if the price breaks below 0.6550

Be alert for volatility during times of release of Australian economic indicators and major U.S. data

override condition

A clear drop below 0.6520 would negate the push-back strategy.

Conversely, if 0.6720 is breached, range tactics will be invalidated and a new phase should be assumed

risk event

Release of Australian employment statistics and retail sales

Publication of U.S. PCE deflator and employment-related indicators

Change in risk aversion due to resource prices and geopolitical factors

Position Management

Position size is controlled to about half the normal size.

Assume a profit target of 30-40 pips.

Ensure that losses are taken early, based on 20 to 30 pips.

checklist

Confirming Australian inflation trends and the RBA's policy stance.

To understand the degree of market incorporation into U.S. monetary policy

Observe the reaction at the technical levels of 0.6580 and 0.6700

looking back

The adjustment continued until European hours, but U.S. indices strengthened dollar buying and the dollar rose to the upper 149-yen level.

summary

The dollar gained the upper hand as the strong U.S. economic indicators slightly reduced expectations of an interest rate cut.

The yen sold off and moved above the range after the August jobs report shock.

The market continued to closely monitor U.S. interest rate trends.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo hours continued to see small movements around the upper ¥148 level.

The market was in an adjustment phase through the European hours, but buying was suddenly stronger after the U.S. indexes.

At the end of the day, the price was confirmed to remain high in the 149-yen range.

Background & Materials

U.S. economic indicators exceeded expectations and led to a retreat in interest rate cut speculation.

Rising U.S. long-term interest rates provided support for the dollar.

The lack of change in Japan's monetary policy also encouraged yen selling.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 148.50 area was recognized as a push and provided short-term support.

149.50-149.80 was noted as upside resistance.

The short-term moving averages were up, indicating a predominantly buying trend.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The price broke through the upper limit of the range since August, testing the medium-term upside potential.

On the daily basis, the price remained above 149.00 and was aware of the milestone 150.00.

On the other hand, it should be noted that this is a level at which the yen is likely to be repurchased.

impression

The strength of U.S. indices was a major factor in the day's market movements.

Markets remain sensitive to the direction of U.S. monetary policy and interest rate differentials.

The yen continued to depend on the external environment as it lacked its own support.

trade observations

During the post-index surge phase, there was a move toward push-buying.

Volatility increased amid a mix of short-term profit-taking and new buying.

Stop orders on the upside of the range were supporting the rise.

checklist

Whether the resistance zone of 149.50-150.00 can be broken through.

U.S. interest rate trends and what the Fed has to say.

Renewed yen buying pressure due to risk-off factors.

looking back

European hours were an adjustment phase, but the euro closed sharply lower as dollar buying strengthened in response to U.S. indicators.

summary

U.S. economic indicators exceeded expectations, and the prospect of interest rate cuts receded.

The euro tested its upside potential at times, but the momentum did not last.

The dollar's strength prevailed at the end of the day and the downward trend was clear.

Today's Price Movement

The pair moved slightly around the upper 1.17s until European hours.

After the release of the U.S. index, dollar buying quickly intensified and fell below the low 1.17s.

The price remained at a lower level at the end of the trading day.

Background & Materials

The U.S. GDP revision and other key indicators strongly reduced expectations of a rate cut.

Rising U.S. long-term interest rates supported the dollar.

Economic concerns in the eurozone and energy price volatility weighed on the euro.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The support line near 1.1720 was broken down and downward pressure became conscious.

The upside was held back around 1.1800 as a return level.

The short-term moving average turned downward, indicating a stronger dollar trend.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The area around 1.1650 was watched closely as the next downside target.

The 1.1870 area is considered as medium-term upside resistance.

The downtrend prevailed on a daily basis, confirming the weakness of the return.

impression

It was a day in which U.S. indices had a major influence on the direction of the market.

The euro lacked its own support and became more dependent on the external environment.

The market continues to closely monitor U.S. monetary policy and interest rate differentials.

trade observations

Short-term selling prevailed during the sharp decline after the index.

There were scattered buyers looking for a return, but they were pushed back.

Participants leaned toward short-term trading while emphasizing risk management.

checklist

Whether support at 1.1650 can be maintained.

U.S. interest rate trends and what Fed officials have said.

Impact of Eurozone economic indicators and inflation-related data.

looking back

Selling was dominated by European markets and the pound closed sharply lower due to dollar buying after the U.S. index.

summary

The pound was restrained on the upside by concerns about the UK's fiscal management and bond supply and demand.

U.S. economic indicators exceeded expectations, increasing pressure on the dollar.

As a result, the pound fell below the previous day's low and the downward trend was clear.

Today's Price Movement

Selling intensified through the European hour and fell below 1.34.

After the release of the U.S. index, the decline accelerated and fell to the low 1.33s.

The market remained at a low level at the end of the day and closed sharply lower.

Background & Materials

There was widespread caution about fiscal risks in the U.K. and the supply-demand balance for government bonds.

Major indicators such as U.S. GDP were strong factors for dollar buying.

The trend of dollar dominance was supported by the prospect of a widening interest rate differential.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The pair fell below support near 1.3400, raising awareness of short-term downside potential.

The level around 1.3460 was a return level, restricting upside.

The short-term moving average was down and showed a downtrend.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The area around 1.3300 was noted as a medium-term support level.

The 1.3550-1.3600 area was considered as a resistance zone in the return phase.

On a daily basis, the downward trend prevailed, confirming the weakness of the return.

impression

It was a day of selling off of the pound due to a combination of materials from Europe to the US.

The strength of U.S. indicators affected the entire currency market, accentuating the dollar's strengthening trend.

The U.K. was noticeably vulnerable against the dollar due to a lack of its own support.

trade observations

Short-term selling prevailed on the downside after the index.

There were some attempts to return to the market, but the upside was heavy.

Selling accompanied by position adjustments supported the decline.

checklist

Whether the support of 1.3300 can be maintained

U.S. interest rate trends and what Fed officials have said

UK fiscal policy and government bond market trends

looking back

The Australian dollar continued to adjust around 0.6600 during the European session, but the US indexes strengthened dollar buying and the Australian dollar closed sharply lower.

summary

U.S. economic indicators exceeded expectations, and the prospect of interest rate cuts receded.

The Australian dollar was sold off as the dollar buying trend strengthened.

The price fell from the intraday highs and broke down to around 0.6530 at the end of the day.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time continued to move slightly around 0.6600.

The adjustment continued into European hours, with limited directional movement.

The pair fell sharply after the U.S. index and was pushed down to the 0.6520 level.

Background & Materials

U.S. GDP revisions and other indicators exceeded expectations and supported dollar strength.

Rising U.S. long-term interest rates supported dollar buying.

Australian inflation indicators showed strength but were pushed into dollar-driven flows.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 0.6600 area was considered as a return level.

The area around 0.6530 was noted as a lower price point.

The short-term moving average was down and showed a downtrend.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The area around 0.6500 was watched closely as the next support level.

The 0.6670 area is considered as a resistance zone for the return.

The downward trend prevailed on a daily basis, confirming the weakness of the return.

impression

It was a day when the strength of U.S. indicators affected the entire currency market.

The Australian dollar lacked support of its own and followed the dollar-led movement.

Resource prices and developments in the Chinese economy also continued to be influential factors.

trade observations

Short-term selling prevailed during the sharp decline after the index.

There were some attempts to push the price down, but the upside was limited.

Increased volatility raised awareness of the importance of risk management.

checklist

Whether the support of 0.6500 can be maintained

U.S. Interest Rate Trends and the Fed's Statement

Impact of Australian inflation indicators and resource prices