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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | September Tokyo Metropolitan Area Consumer Price Index (CPI, excluding fresh food) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Personal Income [month-on-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) [month-on-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Personal consumption expenditures (PCE deflator) [y/y] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Personal consumption expenditures (PCE core deflator, excluding food and energy) [month-over-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Personal consumption expenditures (PCE core deflator, excluding food and energy) [y/y] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | September University of Michigan Consumer Attitude Index, Confirmed |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
On the previous day, strong U.S. economic indicators were recognized, and dollar buying prevailed amid shaken speculation of a U.S. interest rate cut. Today, new important indicators are scheduled to be released, and depending on the results, speculation on the interest rate outlook is likely to change. In addition, the weekend rebalancing flows are also expected to coincide, and short-term supply-demand swings may affect price movements. As a whole, the market is likely to remain in a high price range, and attention should be paid to the reaction to the materials.
On the previous day, U.S. economic indicators exceeded expectations and the euro was pushed lower as dollar buying intensified amid shaken interest rate cut speculation. Today, new important indicators are scheduled to be released, and views on interest rate differentials are likely to change depending on the results. In addition, the weekend rebalancing flows will overlap, so we need to be careful of temporary fluctuations due to supply and demand factors.
The previous day, strong U.S. economic indicators led to dollar buying, which pushed the pound lower against the dollar. The results of the indicators were much higher than market expectations, which shook expectations of a rate cut and strengthened awareness of interest rate differentials. Today, a new important indicator is expected, and depending on the result, dollar buying may be triggered again. In addition, with rebalancing flows over the weekend, temporary fluctuations due to supply and demand factors are likely to affect the market.
The previous day, the Australian dollar was pushed lower against the U.S. dollar as strong economic indicators in the U.S. were noticed and dollar buying prevailed amid wavering interest rate cut speculation. Today, a new important indicator is expected, and depending on the result, speculation on interest rate differentials is likely to change, so caution is required. In addition, rebalancing flows will coincide with the weekend, and short-term fluctuations in supply and demand could affect the market.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
There were no surprises in the U.S. indicators, and materials were generally limited. The market lacked a sense of direction throughout the day, and closed in an adjustment-tinged struggle at the end of the day.
No surprises were seen in the market as the August personal consumption expenditures released in the U.S. came in line with expectations. New material from the eurozone was scarce, and overall the day was marked by a strong adjustment.
The August personal consumption expenditures released in the U.S. were in line with expectations, with little surprise and limited impact on the market. However, the pound was bought through the New York hours, and the day ended with a slight gain with some adjustments.
In the U.S., August personal consumption expenditures came in as expected and had limited impact on the market. The market slightly renewed the previous day's lows during the European session, but reversed after entering New York on the back of buying interest. As a result, the market remained within a small range with strong adjustment throughout the day.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day, strong U.S. economic indicators shook expectations of a rate cut, and dollar buying prevailed.
Today, the release of important indicators and the weekend rebalancing coincide, and this is a phase that requires attention to supply-demand swings.
Overall, the market is likely to remain in a high price range, and the direction of the market is likely to change depending on materials.
Assumed range
Assumption is for the area around 147.80 to 149.80.
The upside is likely to be aware of the milestone around 150.00.
The downside will be a focus of attention below the 147.50 area.
tactics
Our basic policy is to focus on push-buying.
However, considering the risk of a short-term selloff, we will limit ourselves to picking up at the lower price target.
A return sale will be considered after confirming the momentum stall at the highs.
trigger
A clear break above 150.00 would likely increase buying pressure.
A break below 147.50 would likely accelerate the adjustment.
Results of U.S. economic indicators and weekend rebalancing trends will be the short-term triggers.
override condition
A clear break below 147.00 would negate the push-back tactic.
The scenario will be revised if the highs do not continue to stay in the highs and the price remains below 148.00.
The assumption also breaks down if liquidity declines rapidly due to changes in supply and demand factors.
risk event
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Related Indicators.
Revision of the interest rate outlook due to statements by Fed officials.
Month-end and weekend rebalancing flows.
Position Management
Lots start at half the normal amount, and increase or decrease is considered after confirming direction.
Gains will be around 149.80 or adjusted to confirm momentum after breaking through 150.00.
Set stop-losses below 147.40 to avoid stalling.
checklist
Confirmation of possible break above 150.00.
Identify changes in supply and demand due to weekend rebalancing.
Watch for a revised interest rate outlook after the release of U.S. indices.
Market Summary
The previous day, U.S. economic indicators exceeded expectations and the dollar was predominantly bought, pushing the euro lower
Markets are sensitive to changes in the outlook for interest rate differentials ahead of a new key indicator today
Short-term swings need to be watched carefully due to the added impact of weekend rebalancing flows
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 1.1650-1.1750
Lower price is likely to be aware of the 1.1650 area as support.
The focus on the upside is to test resistance above 1.1750 to around 1.1780.
tactics
Our basic policy is to return to the market and sell.
Avoid easy following in a strong rebound phase and watch for milestones.
Use short-term upside as room for position adjustment.
trigger
A clear break above 1.1780 would temporarily curb the return strategy.
A break below 1.1650 would likely strengthen momentum to the downside
Results of U.S. indicators and flows in European hours will be the short-term turning points.
override condition
If established above 1.1800, the return strategy is negated.
If 1.1700 cannot be maintained and the price falls below 1.1700, it is necessary to reassess the assumption of further weakness.
Scenarios are also invalid in the event of a major abrupt change due to supply and demand factors.
risk event
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Related Statistics
Preliminary European consumer confidence and PMI
Flow bias due to weekend rebalancing
Position Management
Carefully adjust position size up to half the normal limit.
Gains should be around 1.1660 to secure a short-term downside swing.
Stop-losses are set above 1.1785 and risk management is strictly enforced.
checklist
Confirmation of possible break below 1.1650
Watch for a move above 1.1780
Identify changes in the outlook for interest rate differentials following the release of U.S. indices
Market Summary
The previous day, strong economic indicators in the U.S. led to dollar buying, which pushed the pound lower.
The dollar preference strengthened on the back of interest rate differentials as the prospect of interest rate cuts wavered.
Today's new key indicators and the weekend rebalancing combine to create a situation where short-term swings need to be watched carefully.
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 1.3320-1.3420
The upside is likely to be around 1.3450
The downside will be a level below 1.3300 to test the acceleration of the adjustment.
tactics
Basis is to focus on return sales
Short-term rebound will respond by confirming a stall at higher resistance.
Push-buying should be a limited response after lower support is clear.
trigger
Sell strategy needs to be restrained in case of a clear break above 1.3450
A break below 1.3300 would likely increase downward pressure.
U.S. indices and European hourly flows will determine the day's short-term direction.
override condition
If 1.3480 is breached and established, return selling tactics will be negated.
If 1.3320 cannot be maintained stably, the assumed range needs to be revised.
The scenario also breaks down if the dollar is overbought due to sharp risk aversion flows
risk event
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Related Statistics
UK economic indicators and statements from Central Bank officials
Supply and demand fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing
Position Management
Start lots at half the standard size and operate cautiously.
The target profit margin is around 1.3330 to ensure profits, even if they are small.
Stop-losses are set above 1.3460 to avoid risk escalation.
checklist
See if it will test the 1.3300 break
Watch for a break above 1.3450
Identify changes in the outlook for interest rate differentials following the release of U.S. indices
Market Summary
The previous day, the Australian dollar was pushed lower as dollar buying prevailed on the back of strong U.S. economic indicators.
Interest rate differentials gained momentum amid wavering expectations of a rate cut.
Today's new key indicators and weekend rebalancing combine to make the market more volatile due to supply and demand factors.
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 0.6550-0.6650
The upside is likely to be around 0.6670
Lower price below 0.6530 will be the level to test the acceleration of the adjustment
tactics
Basic policy is to prioritize return sales.
During the rebound phase, respond by checking for stalls at high resistance.
Push-buying will be considered on a limited basis after support is confirmed.
trigger
If a clear break above 0.6670, return selling tactics need to be curbed.
A break below 0.6530 would likely increase downward pressure.
Results of U.S. indicators and rebalancing flows will be the day's turning point
override condition
If the price breaks through 0.6700 and settles in, the return scenario is negated.
If 0.6550 cannot be maintained and falls below, we will modify our tactics as the downside risk will strengthen.
Scenarios are also invalid in the event of a rapid decline in liquidity
risk event
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Related Statistics
Impact of the release of Chinese economic indicators on resource prices
Flow fluctuations associated with weekend rebalancing
Position Management
Start with half of the standard lot size and consider increasing or decreasing the number of lots after confirming the direction of the project.
Gains should be around 0.6560 to ensure short-term downside.
Stop-losses are set above 0.6680 to avoid risk expansion.
checklist
Check for a move to test below 0.6530
Watch for a break through 0.6670
Identify changes in the outlook for interest rate differentials following the release of U.S. indices
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures for August were within expectations and lacked surprises, and the day's trade was ultimately within a small range due to lack of direction.
summary
U.S. consumption-related indicators showed strength, but reactions were limited as results were in line with market expectations
The dollar remained calm around the mid-149-yen level, as it was not enough to influence speculation on monetary policy.
Position adjustments prevailed ahead of the weekend, and overall price movements remained quiet.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo session started around 149.70 and attempted a small rise, but failed to extend.
The European market temporarily moved up to around 149.90, but the upside was confirmed
The pair was pushed down to 149.40 by the New York time, and finally closed at around 149.50.
Background & Materials
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures results remained solid but in line with market expectations and had limited impact
Interest rate cut speculation regarding U.S. monetary policy receded somewhat, but not enough to generate new direction.
There were no high-profile economic indicators or policy statements from the Japanese side, and there was only a sense of caution about currency intervention.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 149.40 area was recognized as support and no downside was seen.
The upside was restrained by the psychological milestone of 150.00, and the price ended up trading in a range.
In the short term, continued firings around the mid-149 yen level were confirmed
Technical Memo (mid-term)
150.00 continues to be considered as resistance on a daily basis
148.80-149.00 is likely to function as a medium-term support zone
No clear trend has been formed as the market is still in a holding pattern with no firm direction
impression
Market participants did not actively move their positions due to the lack of reaction to the U.S. index, and a wait-and-see attitude prevailed.
While caution about currency intervention supported the market, the upside remained heavy, linked to the U.S. interest rate trend.
Price movements are limited ahead of the week's events, and there is a strong sense of waiting for the next material.
trade observations
There were small swings up and down, but lacked clear direction and entry opportunities were limited.
There was room to aim for small profit margins in short-term trading, but a cautious approach was required to carry over.
Overall, I have the impression that the movement was mainly in line with the weekend's position liquidation.
checklist
Watch for a break above 150.00
Confirmation of support maintenance near 149.40
Prepare for major U.S. indicators later in the week
looking back
The market did not react as expected to the U.S. announcement of consumer spending in August, and there were no significant developments from the Eurozone, making for a day of strong adjustment overall.
summary
U.S. indicators were generally within expectations and did not provide enough of a factor to give momentum to dollar buying
Amid a dearth of economic announcements in the Eurozone, price movements were limited as investors waited for the next event.
As a result, the Eurodollar remained calm in the range, hovering around 1.1700
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo session opened around 1.1670, with only minor movement in the early going.
A test of 1.1700 was seen in the European market, but did not lead to a major extension
The pair pushed lower to the 1.1660 level through the New York session before recovering and closing near 1.1700 at the end of the day.
Background & Materials
U.S. August personal consumption expenditures were in line with expectations and provided reassurance to the market, but had limited impact
U.S. GDP revision, while firm, was within prior expectations and did not become a new factor for dollar buying
No new policy statements or major statistics from the Eurozone and lack of market-moving materials
Technical Memo (Short-term)
1.1660-1.1670 was identified as short-term support
1.1700 was a psychological milestone, confirming the heaviness of the upside.
During the day, the market continued to move within a small range around this level
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The area around 1.1600 is in focus as a medium-term downside support zone
The 1.1750 area is likely to be considered as the next upside resistance
Lack of direction in the medium term, still holding tone
impression
Lack of reaction to U.S. indices left the impression that the overall market remained quiet.
Lack of materials in the Eurozone limited trading opportunities and participants were less active
Markets are increasingly waiting for the next major U.S. index and ECB-related announcements
trade observations
The market lacked a clear sense of direction and was limited to short-term price action.
Trading was focused on confirming support and resistance
Weekend factors also contributed to a notable day of holding adjustment.
checklist
See if we can get above 1.1700
Watch for support to hold at 1.1660 level
Confirming readiness for next week's key U.S. indicators and ECB-related announcements
looking back
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures in August were in line with expectations and the reaction was limited, but the pound was bought and closed with a slight gain by the end of the New York session
summary
U.S. indicators showed strength but fell within market expectations and there were no surprises
No significant material from the U.K. side, and monetary policy uncertainty continued to weigh on the market.
Pound buying strengthened through the New York hours and closed around 1.3400.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo session opened around 1.3340, with small ups and downs.
In the European market, the price temporarily pushed lower to around 1.3330.
The pair rebounded to around 1.3410 and closed at around 1.3400.
Background & Materials
U.S. personal consumption expenditures were in line with expectations and had a limited effect on boosting the dollar.
Upward revision of the U.S. GDP revision was supportive of the dollar, but had limited impact on the pound sterling
No new information on monetary or fiscal policy from the U.K. side, and the market watched the U.S. side closely.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
1.3330 was recognized as support and supported the lower price.
The upper price was considered as a resistance zone between 1.3410 and 1.3420.
During the day, the price bounced back and forth within the 1.3340-1.3410 range.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The 1.3300 area is noted as a medium-term support band to the downside
The area around 1.3450 is considered as the next resistance candidate
Lacks direction in the medium term and continues to be range bound
impression
U.S. indicators were in line with expectations and a wait-and-see mood prevailed throughout the market.
Pound buying in the New York time was more of an adjustment against the backdrop of a lull in the dollar.
Markets remain prepared for the next event amid material difficulties
trade observations
Lack of movement in the early stages of the market was not conducive to short-term trading.
There was room for short-term buy entry during the rebound phase of the NY session
Overall, the direction of the market was weak, and aggressive trading was restrained due to the weekend factor.
checklist
Confirmation of maintaining support for 1.3330
Watch for a break through resistance around 1.3420
Prepare for next week's U.S. index and BoE-related announcements
looking back
The market reaction was limited as the US Personal Consumption Expenditure in August was in line with expectations, and the market closed in a slight range with a slight renewal of the previous day's lows in the European session, followed by a buyback in the New York session.
summary
No surprises in U.S. indicators and limited dollar buying interest.
There were no new announcements from the Australian side, and the market was short of clues.
As a result, the day was directionless, centered around 0.6540
Today's Price Movement
The Tokyo session opened around 0.6545 and remained in a narrow range.
In the European market, it pushed lower to around 0.6520 and hit the previous day's low.
The price reversed during the New York session and recovered the 0.6540 level to close at 0.6540.
Background & Materials
U.S. personal consumption expenditures were within expectations and had little impact on the market
While the U.S. GDP revision was firm, it had already been factored in, limiting any new movement.
From the Australian side, there was a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the RBA meeting, as there were no notable developments in monetary policy or economic indicators.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
0.6520 acted as support and helped the short-term downside
The upside resistance was around 0.6550 and could not be clearly broken out.
In the short term, they converged within the range of 0.6520-0.6550
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The area around 0.6500 is considered as a medium-term support band to the downside.
0.6600 is the upper barrier as a medium-term resistance level
In the medium term, the range tone continues and a lack of direction is evident.
impression
Lack of material from the Australian side drew market attention to the U.S. index, but the results were within expectations.
The downward push in the European hour was temporary, and the buying back in the New York hour restored overall stability.
Price movements remained adjustment-oriented amid the upcoming RBA meeting and major U.S. indices
trade observations
The development was confined to a narrow price range and was not suitable for major trend following
Mostly short-term push-buying and return selling to get a small price range.
The strategy of waiting for the next event without forcing a position due to material difficulties was advantageous.
checklist
Confirmation of support maintenance at 0.6520
Watching for a break above 0.6550
Prepare for RBA meeting and key U.S. indicators
FX Diary