Market Summary

Limited U.S. indices, material calms down after August PCE passage

On the Japanese side, the authorities are likely to be aware of excessive volatility checks and the BOJ's stance

The large 150.00 level is likely to act as upside pressure, and the mid-149 yen level is being confirmed.

Assumed range

Assumed range is around 149.20-150.20

Upside is expected to be in the vicinity of 150.00-150.20, where return selling is likely to take place.

Downside remains at 149.20-149.40, but beware of a run on the break.

tactics

Basically, range rotation is the priority.

Leaning toward a sell-off before 150.00 and consider buying at 149.30.

During times of low dominance, narrow down the size of the market and wait for headlines.

trigger

Switch to short-term forward tension at 150.20 above and follow with limited risk.

149.20 Clear break to sell back in the switch time zone, with emphasis on London and beyond.

The ability to confirm the unidirectional movement of U.S. interest rates and the synchronization of the U.S. dollar index

override condition

After breaking above 150.20, the price immediately fell back below 150.00, accompanied by volume.

Rapid rebound with a V-shape back to above 149.80 after a fake below 149.20

A phase of reduced liquidity, such as widening spreads due to increased speculation of intervention

risk event

Headlines of key figures' statements and authorities' messages

U.S. interest rate trends and related market volatility expansion

Sudden risk on/off due to U.S. government-related and geopolitical news

Position Management

Approximate risk per transaction is 0.5-1.0% of account balance

The profit margin is set at 8-15 pips within the range and immediately reduced when the market moves backwards.

Stop-losses are placed outside the recent high and low, and if the trigger fails, the company withdraws immediately.

checklist

Thickness and number of hits near 150.00

Confirmation of directional match between U.S. interest rates and USD index

Flow change between Tokyo post-mid-market and London early-market

Market Summary

Adjustment tone with slow return after sharp drop on 25th

Trading was mixed near the recent lows, and confirmation of lower prices was a priority.

U.S. indicators limited, focus on inflation expectations and interest rate trends

Direction awaits European and U.S. time, not solidified below

Assumed range

1.1700-1.1780 Front and back

Assumption is that the upside is likely to be in the 1.1760-1.1780 area, where a return sale is likely to occur

Downside remains to be pushed around 1.1700-1.1680

Keep in mind that the swing will increase depending on events

tactics

Basically, range rotation is the priority.

Returns are likely to come from selling around 1.1760.

Push is around 1.1700, consider buying in small lots after confirming rebound.

Notebooks are also an option during times of low advantage.

trigger

1.1780 Switch to short-term forward tension on a break above 1.1780

1.1700 Switch to sell back at a clear break below 1.1700

Increased volume and confirmation of a synchronized market after London's arrival

override condition

After breaking above, the price quickly dropped back below 1.1750 and the volume deteriorated.

V-shaped negative form that quickly returns to above 1.1730 after a downside breakout

Spreads continue to widen due to headline factors

risk event

European inflation-related bulletins and key figures' statements

Unidirectional movements in U.S. interest rates and the dollar index

Geopolitical and government-related sudden news

Position Management

Approximate risk per transaction is 0.5-1.0% of account balance

Take profit at 8-15p. If growth slows down, take profit in stages.

Stop-loss is outside of recent high/low or ATR x 1.0-1.5

Gradual reduction of lot size in case of consecutive losses

checklist

Dollar Index and U.S. Interest Rates Match Direction

Whether the highs and lows have been renewed since the early London departure

Board thickness and number of hits

Market Summary

After falling sharply on the 25th, the previous day's price movement was only adjustive due to a lack of direction in the U.S. dollar and mixed speculation on U.K. interest rates.

It cannot be said that the lower price has been consolidated, and the market continues to be in a phase of searching for a sense of direction.

The outlook for monetary policy in the U.S. and the U.K. is mixed, and it remains difficult to see a clear underlying tone.

Assumed range

We expect the price to hover around 1.3050-1.3250.

The immediate line of attack will be around 1.3150.

If it exits either up or down, there is room for range expansion.

tactics

In the short term, we will be aware of the possibility of a return to the market, but will also look for room to buy back after confirming the lower price.

A cautious stance is advisable until a clear break above 1.3150.

Focus on short-term rotation within the range based on the assumption of an adjustment phase.

trigger

To the upside, a break above 1.3250 would be a buyback guideline.

The downward trend is likely to be dominated by selling below 1.3050.

U.S. economic indicators and key figures' statements could be short-term triggers.

override condition

A clear break above 1.3300 would negate the return scenario.

The assumption of a downside advantage will be broken if the daily move to higher highs continues.

If a sudden change in sentiment occurs, the scenario will need to be revised.

risk event

U.S. economic indicators (consumption-related and price indexes) will affect the overall dollar.

Remarks by BOE officials and UK inflation-related data will be closely watched.

Market reaction to the U.S. interest rate trend requires vigilance.

Position Management

Position size should be more modest than usual.

The profit margin should be 20 to 30 pips, and it should be taken in small increments based on the assumption of an adjustive move.

Stop-losses should be set shallowly based on the most recent high and low prices to deal with the situation.

checklist

Direction should be confirmed based on the attack and defense of 1.3150.

Keep track of the time frame for U.S. economic indicators and key figures' statements.

Do not carry over positions when risk events occur.

Market Summary

After falling sharply on the 25th, the previous day was limited to a narrow range of adjustments against the backdrop of lack of direction in the US dollar and concerns about the Chinese economy

While downside weight is being felt, a move to test the recovery in the short term is also in need of attention.

Lack of strong support for the AUD on its own, and the market continues to be easily swayed by external factors

Assumed range

Assume price movement around 0.6550-0.6700

The 0.6650 area is considered as the immediate offensive and defensive line.

There is room for range expansion if it can be pulled out either up or down.

tactics

Basically, focus on selling on the return, while emphasizing detailed gains in short-term return phases

Maintain a sell-dominant stance until a clear break above 0.6650

Short-term orientation with a focus on rotational trading within a range is advisable.

trigger

To the upside, buyback pressure is likely to strengthen if the price breaks above 0.6700

Downside is below 0.6550, strengthening the trend to the downside.

U.S. economic indicators and key figures' statements could trigger a short-term change in direction

override condition

A clear break above 0.6720 would negate the return scenario

If the daily highs continue to rise, the assumption of a downside advantage will be broken.

A rapid improvement in overall market risk appetite would also require a revision of the scenario

risk event

U.S. economic indicators (related to consumer spending and prices) affect the overall dollar

News on Chinese economic indicators and economic trends are likely to have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.

Remarks by RBA officials could create short-term movement in the Australian dollar

Position Management

Keep position sizes small and limit risk by assuming an adjustment phase

The profit margin should be 20 to 30 pips, and the response should be in small increments.

Set stop-losses based on recent highs or lows and avoid going too deep.

checklist

To see if the 0.6650 attack continues.

To keep track of the time of U.S. economic indicators and China-related news

Do not carry over positions when risk events occur

looking back

The yen strengthened against the yen on the back of comments made by a BOJ advisory board member, and the decline continued without any pushback and eliminated the 25-day gain.

summary

An event-driven day with a combination of key figures' statements and sluggish U.S. interest rate growth

Selling spilled over from below the previous day's highs and lows, and returns remained limited.

The end of the day was marked by intraday lows, and the short term was marked by weakness.

Today's Price Movement

The upward pressure was confirmed in Tokyo time, and the downward pressure strengthened as we entered Europe.

Returns were slow in early New York, and the flow continued through a retest of the previous day's lows

Price range increased from the previous day, with notable reactions near PP and S1.

Background & Materials

Remarks by BOJ deliberation committee members provided clues in the direction of yen buying.

Sluggish U.S. interest rates and a slight risk aversion restrained the dollar's upside.

The ups and downs were amplified by real demand flows as the end of the month approached.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Longer below PP, return was limited to a short waveform.

Heavy returns to the previous day's lows and PPs prevented a breakout to the upside on many occasions.

The downward push with whiskers continued, accompanied by an expansion of the Bollinger +/- 2σ

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The 4-hour leg lined up with a predominant sellback after falling below the short/medium-term EMA

The daily price was aware of the lower highs and lower lows, and moved to attack the lower end of the range

Weekly volume continued to contract, and the direction of the market was close to that of the indexes.

impression

The initial reaction to the material was fast, giving the impression that prior position adjustment was in progress.

Time of day and liquidity bias, rather than level, determined the outcome.

Early profit taking looked more effective than deep profit taking toward the end of the day.

trade observations

Break following was limited to the initial movement, and then a short-term rotation to wait for the return worked.

The shallow profit margin setting worked well, and early withdrawal was safe in case of a reverse trend.

The entry plan worked according to the indicators and the dignitaries' schedule.

checklist

To confirm the change in the position of PP and the previous day's high and low.

Simultaneous monitoring of U.S. interest rates and stock futures to understand the tilt of the ground.

Limit position sizes around the time of key figures and indicators.

looking back

Buying continued from Tokyo to London and New York, but the upward pressure was heavy near the highs in New York, and the market was sluggish due to profit-taking.

summary

A day of sluggish U.S. interest rate growth and strong and weak European indicators made it difficult to get a sense of direction for the dollar

The market was slightly back in the closing stages as buyers and sellers jockeyed for position amidst the lingering awareness of the 25-day high.

The mood was strongly waiting for the event, and in the short term, it was easier to assume a traffic pattern rather than an expansion of the price range.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo started the day above the previous day's close, with moderate buying back in the early going

Buying accelerated in London and tested the previous day's highs, but the upside was limited near the highs in early New York

The market fell back temporarily due to profit-taking and sell-offs at higher prices, and then rallied slightly after a round of downward pressure.

Background & Materials

A pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates and a revision of the U.S. economic outlook dampened dollar buying.

Mixed strength and weakness in prices and business confidence in the Eurozone and the ECB stance also made it difficult to set direction.

Risk appetite was not overly biased, with equity futures and credit movements limiting currency swings.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

After a break above PP, there was a noticeable back-and-forth stall near R1 and then a return to the PP direction again.

Failed to confirm the substance above the previous day's high, and failed to confirm the continuation of the upward breakout

Bollinger expanded slightly, but stayed outside ±2σ for a short time and pushed back faster

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The 4-hour leg remained above the short- and medium-term EMA bundle, but the momentum of the higher highs slowed down

On the daily basis, the substance shrank slightly and took a shape similar to that of a coma leg, and the weight of the upper end of the range became conscious.

On the weekly level, the range remained in the center of the range, and the direction of the market remained in a wait-and-see mode for the upcoming events.

impression

The upward momentum slowed down in New York, giving the impression that the difference in time zone and liquidity affected price movements.

New followers were less likely to extend at the highs, and short-term rotation during the pushback phase was more likely to work.

The price range was moderate, and it was more important to identify reaction points than to follow extreme trends.

trade observations

The break was limited to the initial move, and quick profit-taking was effective once the stall was confirmed at R1 or the previous day's high.

The push was to wait for a reaction near PP and the confirmation of the candlestick substance, and a shallow retrogression to ensure a withdrawal.

Size was kept below normal and further reduced before and after the event to limit risk.

checklist

Does the position of the PP and the previous day's high and low not indicate a buying advantage or traffic?

Reconfirm the time of U.S. indicators and key figures' statements, and make sure that you are able to lighten your position immediately before and after.

Is the relationship between the whiskers and the substance near the R1 and round numbers allowing us to determine if it is stalling or continuing to grow?

looking back

Bidding was seen from Tokyo to London and New York, but was sluggish near the New York highs, and after a pushback, the market closed slightly back.

summary

A day of mixed US interest rate growth and BOE stance observations made it difficult to find a sense of direction

The dominant buying trend stalled in New York, with gains and returns prevailing at the highs.

The end of the day was marked by a push and a recovery after a round of downward pressure.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo maintained above the previous day's closing price, while a gradual buyback progressed.

Momentum gained momentum in London, and a test of the 25-day high and the 1.3200 area was conscious.

New York was down on the upside at the highs, followed by a small return to the highs.

Background & Materials

A pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates and a wait-and-see attitude toward U.S. economic indicators dampened dollar buying.

UK inflation trends and BOE's outlook restrained the pound's buying spree.

Real demand flows near the end of the month amplified the upward and downward swings.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

There was a noticeable traffic that started on PP, stalled around R1, and then reverted back to the PP direction once it was in place.

Failed to confirm substance above the previous day's high, and failed to confirm continued upward movement

Momentum for higher prices was limited while hovering above the short-term EMA

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The 4-hour leg continued to hover around the short- and medium-term EMA bundle, with little momentum bias.

The daily substance shrank slightly and the weight of the upper end of the range became more conscious.

Weekly trend was around the central region and the direction seemed to be waiting for an event.

impression

It was a day when liquidity differences by time of day could easily affect performance.

Following the highs was difficult to extend, and quick gains based on reaction points were effective.

It worked better to build on the premise of repetition of traffic rather than continuity of breaks.

trade observations

Tests of high prices were limited to the initial response, and once the stall was confirmed, profits were secured in the short term.

The push was entered by waiting for the reaction around PP and the confirmation of the candlestick substance.

We kept the size down before and after the event and made sure to withdraw at shallower depths during the retrogression.

checklist

Does the position of the PP and the previous day's high and low not indicate a buying advantage or traffic?

Is the relationship between the whiskers and the substance at the 25-day high and around 1.3200 being assessed to see if it stalls or continues to grow?

Are you able to lighten your position around the time of the U.S. index and BOE-related statements?

looking back

Bidding started in Tokyo and continued in London with a shallow push, and closed higher in New York to close higher.

summary

The dollar was weighed down by sluggish U.S. interest rate growth, and the Australian dollar remained resilient, supported by resource prices.

The momentum of the follow-through slowed at the highs, and it was a day of repeated up-tests with pushes in between.

Clear trend acceleration remained limited, with a tinge of waiting for events

Today's Price Movement

Buybacks were ahead of the PP above in Tokyo.

London resurfaced from a push around 0.6650 and tested R1

After breaking around 0.6700 in New York, the price closed at a higher level.

Background & Materials

A pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates and the wait for indicators restrained the dollar's upside.

China-related headlines and resource prices were factors in the volatility of the Australian dollar.

The RBA's neutral stance continued to be observed and was easily swayed by external factors.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Longer on PP, with a noticeable reaction near R1.

The push was shallow and the turnaround was fast, holding above the short-term EMA

Bollinger widened slightly and moved more along the upper band

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The 4-hour leg has moved back into position above the EMA bundle, approaching a push-buy dominant alignment

The daily price was set to test the upper end of the 0.6550-0.6700 range.

Momentum bias was not excessive while highs continued to rise.

impression

It was a day when liquidity differences between time zones could easily affect performance.

Following at higher prices was less likely to increase margins, and rotation at reaction points was more effective.

Before and after the event, risk management should be prioritized over expectations.

trade observations

The break was limited to an initial thin entry and a quick gain once we confirmed the lack of growth.

The push was picked up in small increments, waiting for a reaction around PP and 0.6650.

Retrogression was shallow and withdrawn, and size was kept below normal.

checklist

To check the time spent between PP and R1 and the strength of the regression

Reconfirming the time of U.S. indicators and China-related headlines.

Observe the relationship between the whiskers and the substance at the push at 0.6650 and around 0.6700.