Market Summary

The previous day, the dollar sold off sharply, falling to the upper ¥146 level, and all eyes are on whether the downward trend will continue today.

While there is awareness of the trend in U.S. interest rates and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk of a U.S. government agency closure is a cause for concern.

The possibility of supply-demand bias due to month-end rebalancing could cause temporary fluctuations, requiring caution.

Assumed range

Price movements around 146.20-147.80 will be considered.

The downside is expected to be around 146.00, while the upside is expected to test 148.00.

The possibility of a range transition rather than a major trend change should be assumed.

tactics

In the short term, the market is likely to be poised for a return to the market.

A return to the 147.50 area is a possibility and we will see the reaction from there.

There is still a desire to buy at the push point, so we will be cautious and not be overly biased in one direction.

trigger

To the upside, the focus will be on following a clear break above 148.00.

On the downside, a break below 146.00 could intensify the search for lower prices.

Reports on U.S. employment-related indicators and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown will influence price movements.

override condition

A steady move above 148.50 to consolidate would negate the return strategy.

On the other hand, a significant break below 146.00 would mean a search for new lows and a reconsideration of tactics.

If the expected range is deviated significantly, the standing position is reset.

risk event

Availability of media reports related to the risk of U.S. government agency closures.

Results of major U.S. economic indicators, especially employment-related statistics and inflation indicators.

Comments and observational articles on the Bank of Japan's policy stance.

Position Management

Keep size lower than usual and avoid holding excessive positions before and after the event.

Interest is taken in increments of 20 to 40 pips to ensure a reliable profit.

Losses should be clearly set at milestones such as above 148.50 and below 145.80.

checklist

Check the balance between U.S. interest rate trends and BOJ rate hike expectations.

Be aware of the impact of month-end rebalancing on supply and demand flows.

Sensitive to reports of risk of U.S. government agency closures.

Market Summary

Today's remarks by Governor Lagarde and a series of German indicators provide clues to the interest rate outlook

A tug-of-war between restraining upside and buying back down is likely to continue due to mixed speculation on U.S. interest rates and U.S. indices.

Note that month-end rebalancing flows may increase short-time swings

Assumed range

Assuming a test up and down around 1.1600-1.1800

The upside is likely to be in the 1.1760-1.1800 area as a guideline for a return.

The downside is to watch for a reaction in the vicinity of 1.1640-1.1600.

tactics

For the time being, we will switch between buying at the push point and selling on the return in small increments based on range rotation.

Prepare for widening spreads and sudden changes by limiting open interest before and after events.

Avoid following momentum reliance by interspersing the break with re-return confirmation.

trigger

Consider room for a push test above 1.1800 and confirm initial move in European time.

1.1600 clear below to watch for downward pressure and inspect for continuity after NY entry.

Watch for a reversal after a spike immediately after Lagarde's comments and the German index.

override condition

Range assumptions will be revised if the trend continues to be significantly above the assumed range

If 1.1820 fixation or 1.1580 breakout fixation is confirmed, tactics need to be restructured.

Return to square once the basis is broken by a temporary indicator-derived whisker.

risk event

Lagarde's Remarks and Major German Indicators

U.S. interest rate-related headlines and major U.S. indices

Intermittent flows around month-end rebalancing and London FIX

Position Management

Less size than usual, entries are spread out, and the average open price is considered.

Priority is given to the preservation of unrealized profits by taking profits in 15-35 pips increments in stages.

Losses are placed outside of the milestone and re-entry is time-staggered.

checklist

Tone of Lagarde's Remarks and the Direction of Surprises in German Indicators

US interest rates by time zone and changes in flow from European time to New York

Timing and degree of convergence of price movements as the impact of month-end rebalancing fades

Market Summary

The previous day's close was marked by a slow return to the highs, and today, we will carefully check for signs of a reversal.

Mixture of US interest rate trends, BoE's stance, and speculation on UK wages and PMI, with a strong wait-for-materials tone

Keep in mind that month-end rebalancing flows may create a temporary supply/demand bias

Assumed range

Assuming around 1.3380-1.3560

The lower price is around 1.3400 and the upper price is at 1.3520-1.3560.

Tokyo is likely to be swing-limited, focus on direction in European hours

tactics

For the time being, priority will be given to range rotation, switching between selling on the return and buying at the push point in the short term.

Limit open interest before and after the index to prepare for spreads and sudden fluctuations

Avoid forcing a reversal when a one-way flow of month-end factors

trigger

A break above 1.3560 would retreat from the view of a return to the upper side of 1.3560, and room for a push is being considered.

Downside pressure is likely to strengthen below 1.3400, focus on 1.3380

Time of European indicators and key figures' statements are likely to be the starting point for a break

override condition

Revise range assumptions if the market continues to stabilize in the 1.3600 range.

Reconsider tactics as a clear break below 1.3360 will strengthen the downward bias if it takes hold.

Refrain from following a false break that is not accompanied by volume

risk event

High-frequency indicators and key figures in the U.K.

U.S. interest rate-related headlines and major U.S. indices

Intermittent flows associated with month-end rebalancing

Position Management

Less size than usual, based on split entries and diversified gains.

Gains are made in increments of 20 to 40 pips in stages.

Stop-losses are set outside of milestones such as above 1.3560 and below 1.3360.

checklist

Is there any bias in the initial movement during the European hours and the flow after the entry into New York?

Has the interaction between UK indicators and the US interest rate outlook changed direction?

Have we misjudged the timing of when the impact of month-end rebalancing will fade?

Market Summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its policy rate today, drawing attention to its interest rate stance.

Uncertainty over the risk of a U.S. government shutdown is likely to influence the dollar's movement

Month-end rebalancing flows may magnify temporary swings

Assumed range

The price is expected to hover around 0.6560-0.6660

Resistance zone with the upper price in the vicinity of 0.6640-0.6660

The downside reaction should be in the 0.6560-0.6580 area.

tactics

For the time being, prioritize range rotation and buy on the downside and sell on the upside in small increments.

Be prepared for sudden changes by holding down open interest before and after policy decisions

It is preferable to refrain from following the announcement until the post-announcement process is clear.

trigger

Considering room for a push above 0.6660 and confirming continuity for European hours.

Downside pressure is likely to strengthen below 0.6560 and reaction in NY time is in focus.

Initial movement immediately after the Australian policy rate announcement tends to trigger trend formation

override condition

Need to revise return assumption if the price continues to stabilize in the 0.6680 level

If the 0.6540 breakout is established, review the push-back strategy.

Once out of the expected range, return to square and reestablish standing position

risk event

Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Rate Announcement and Statement

U.S. government agency closure risks and related headlines

Major U.S. economic indicators and interest rate related news

Position Management

Split entry with less size than usual to be aware of the average closing price

Profit taking is done in increments of 15 to 30 pips to accumulate profits.

Set stop-losses outside of the milestone to prepare for the possibility of a false break-even.

checklist

Tone and initial direction of the statement after the Australian policy rate announcement

Press coverage and market reaction to the risk of a U.S. government agency shutdown

Time and intensity at which the impact of month-end rebalancing becomes apparent

looking back

In Tokyo, the dollar sold off and was pushed lower, and in Europe, the return of the dollar remained sluggish, and after entering New York, the dollar continued to test new lows.

summary

The day was prone to brief swings due to the month-end rebalancing combined with U.S. interest rates and the Bank of Japan's observations.

Returns were limited and convergence to the 148.00 area was noticeable, with direction depending on materials.

Today's Price Movement

The downward trend was set in Tokyo, with a continued slowdown in Europe and a renewed test of the downside in New York.

The reaction was heavy around 148.40-148.50 on the upside and 147.50-147.80 on the downside

Background & Materials

The outlook for U.S. interest rates and speculation about the risk of a U.S. government shutdown influenced the direction of the dollar.

BOJ rate hike speculation and key figures' headlines intermittently shook flows.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The waveform continued to move lower on the return phase, and it was easy to be aware of a return sell-off in the short term.

148.20-148.50 was a resistance zone and 147.80-147.50 was monitored as a potential push zone

Technical Memo (mid-term)

On the daily basis, the 147.00-147.50 zone was considered as a candidate for support with a divergence of returns around 149.00.

In the medium term, the market continued to swing up and down depending on materials on the assumption of a return to within the range.

impression

The posture of waiting in front of the milestone seemed more effective than chasing in one direction

Spread widening and whiskers required attention during times of thinning liquidity.

trade observations

The open interest was small and diversified, and the strategy of switching between selling on the return and buying at the push point in the short term worked.

It was appropriate to set up a conservative setup where gains were accumulated in small increments and losses were placed outside of the milestone.

checklist

U.S. Interest Rate Headlines and Bond Futures Direction

Impact of pre- and post-London FIX and month-end rebalancing

Time and price widening of key figures and major U.S. indices

looking back

Tokyo and Europe were ahead of the buyers, but were pushed down at the previous day's highs and failed to break out of the range in New York.

summary

Lagarde's comments and speculation on German indicators shook interest rate observations and direction is awaiting materials

Month-end rebalancing flows amplified the short-term swings and limited the price range

Difficult to extend both above and below with option milestones in mind

Today's Price Movement

Upside is likely to stall around 1.1760-1.1800 and return slows

Lower price is around 1.1710-1.1700, where buyers are buying back to the downside.

Mostly back and forth in the 1.17 range from Europe to New York

Background & Materials

ECB's Outlook Stance Depends on Data; Rate Cut Outlook Not Fixed

Speculation about U.S. interest rates and U.S. indicators will sway the direction of the dollar intraday.

Noise increases in rebalancing and headlines before and after London FIX

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Short-term trend is converging with a mix of lower highs and higher lows

Momentum is difficult to generate with most reactions around the 5-20 EMA band.

Confirmation of re-return after break is valid

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Watch for a daily attack on the milestone on the assumption that the 1.1680-1.1850 range will be maintained.

Distance from 200-day line is small and direction depends on indicators

Weekly upside resistance before 1.19 weighs

impression

On days when events and flows overlap, time of day habits are more important than level guesses.

Passive waiting before a milestone is more likely to work than forced following.

trade observations

Open interest is divided into small lots to set the average open price and prioritize short-term gains.

Immediately after the spike, the risk of reversal is high and entry should be held off until reconfirmation.

Losses are placed outside of the milestone and rebuilt on the return of a false move.

checklist

Tone of Lagarde's Remarks and the Direction of Surprises in German Indicators

Flow bias and price widening before and after the London FIX

U.S. Interest Rate Headlines and Continuity in Early New York

looking back

Directionality was limited amidst month-end rebalancing-oriented flows, and swings around the London FIX were noticeable.

summary

The mood of waiting for materials continued due to a mix of U.K. indicators and U.S. interest rate observations.

While the return was slow and the upside was heavy, the market was easy to buy back in at the push point.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo was range-bound with a wait-and-see approach, and the upside was limited despite a return test in Europe.

After entering New York, the price range converged at the end of the day after a series of small comings and goings.

During the day, the price was mainly stagnant in the upper 1.34s to around 1.35.

Background & Materials

U.S. interest rate headlines and BoE stance observations shook short-term flows.

Month-end rebalancing was more likely to induce unidirectional flows before and after the FIX

UK GDP and PMI assessments were divided, and the environment was difficult to grow both above and below.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Returns are likely to slow down around 1.3520-1.3560

The 1.3440-1.3400 area is likely to be repurchased

In the short term, there was a convergence of highs and lows, with a mix of ups and downs.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily range continues to search for direction within the 1.34-1.36 range.

Reactions are mostly around the moving average band and the sustainability of the break is limited

I need volume and time of day support for an upside move.

impression

I'd rather focus on time habits and pre/post knots than level guesses.

Spikes before and after FIX should be handled with caution, including reversals.

trade observations

The open interest should be divided into small lots to set the average open price and prioritize small incremental gains.

In case of retrogression, cut losses outside the milestone without hesitation and assume a rebuild.

Immediately after the event, I would refrain from following until confirmation of a re-return.

checklist

Flow bias and price widening before and after London FIX

U.S. Interest Rate Headlines and Continuity in Early New York

Change in tone and market reaction to U.K. indicators and key figures' statements

looking back

The RBA remained unchanged, but mentioned upside risks to inflation, and the buying trend continued.

summary

The hawkish interpretation of the statement supported the Australian dollar and limited near-term pushback.

Speculation on U.S. interest rates and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown was prone to swings in the remaining time frames.

Today's Price Movement

The market was slowly rising from early Asia and continued to test the highs after entering Europe.

There were many occasions before and after the index, with temporary spikes in between, but still holding higher prices

Achievement and slower growth over New York, but mainly at higher prices.

Background & Materials

RBA's "Unchanged + Inflation Watch" curbed early easing speculation

U.S. interest rate outlook and shutdown-related headlines swayed the direction of the dollar

Month-end rebalancing and flow bias around the London FIX created a short swing.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The price continued to attack around 0.6600, and it was easy to buy back in at the push point.

While maintaining the highs on the upside, the upside lacked momentum.

The downward push was shallow and the rebound was quick above the short-term moving average band.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The price maintained a wide range of 0.6400-0.6700 and was mainly moving back and forth at the milestone.

Divergence from the 200-day line was limited and trend judgment awaits material

Weekly selling pressure and buying pressure were in conflict, suggesting a holding pattern.

impression

Immediately after the event, an emphasis on confirming revert after the spike was felt to be effective.

I'd prefer time of day and liquidity changes over level guesses.

trade observations

Diversification of open interest and small-lot operations to adjust the average open price worked well.

Gains were accumulated in small increments and losses were fixed outside the milestone.

Once in retrograde, we squared back up and re-examined the scenario.

checklist

Reinterpretation of RBA statement and change in tone of key figures' statements

U.S. Interest Rate Headlines and Continuity in Early New York

Uneven month-end flows before and after the London FIX and whether the price range is widening or not