Market Summary

The dollar is selling off against the backdrop of the U.S. government shutdown, and USDJPY is in a softening phase in the upper 147-yen range.

The market is searching for a sense of direction amid uncertainty, mixed feelings about the dominance of U.S. interest rates and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.

Important economic indicators are expected today, and volatility may increase depending on the results.

Assumed range

The downside is around 147.20 and the upside is around 148.50.

Until the release of the index, the market is likely to remain mainly in a range.

Market participants are highly cautious and should be wary of sudden price movements.

tactics

For the time being, we will be cautious until we get a clear sense of direction, based on range rotation.

While attempting to push the price lower, we will prioritize early gains while trying to buy on the downside.

There remains an awareness of a return to the upside, and a flexible response in both directions is in mind.

trigger

Watch out for short-term upside on a break above 148.50.

A clear break below 147.20 could tilt the yen to the upside.

U.S. economic indicators scheduled for release tonight are expected to be a major turning point.

override condition

If there is a significant deviation from the expected range, the strategy will be reverted to a blank sheet of paper.

Initial assumptions are also invalid in the event of sudden changes due to sudden fundamental factors.

Disturbances in price movements due to reduced market liquidity can also be a factor that clouds judgment.

risk event

Important U.S. economic indicators are released.

Congressional budget talks and prolonged government shutdowns.

Changes in the statements and policy stance of Bank of Japan members.

Position Management

Entry size shall be kept lower than normal.

Interest should be taken in small increments of 20 to 30 pips.

Losses are placed outside the expected range to limit risk.

checklist

Watch for a downside move around 147.20.

Be aware of upside resistance near 148.50.

Confirm the risk of short-term volatility due to the results of U.S. economic indicators.

Market Summary

EURUSD is slightly softer as the dollar is being sold against the backdrop of the U.S. government shutdown

The previous day lacked a sense of direction, and the price remained in a range centered in the low to mid 1.17s.

Markets are adopting a wait-and-see attitude as they await the results of the indexes.

Assumed range

Assume a downside around 1.1680 and an upside around 1.1820.

Fluctuations are likely to be mainly within the range until the release of the index

Price range is relatively limited and trading is likely to remain range-bound

tactics

Basis is mainly range rotation and consider short-term trading at the upper and lower limits

Respond with a small push to attract lower prices and a small return to sell on approaching higher prices.

Keep positions light and limit risk until a sense of direction emerges.

trigger

A clear break above 1.1820 could strengthen buying momentum in the short term

A break below 1.1680 is likely to lead to euro selling, not yen buying

Results of U.S. economic indicators scheduled for tonight will be a turning point

override condition

Review the strategy if a significant deviation from the expected range is observed.

Invalid if range reliability is broken by spike-like price movements immediately after the indicator is released.

Initial assumptions do not work even when volatility spikes on sudden news

risk event

U.S. economic indicators released

Deterioration in market sentiment due to prolonged government shutdown

Surprising fluctuations in ECB officials' statements and euro area economic indicators

Position Management

Position size will be handled with less than usual

Adjust the profit margin flexibly in increments of about 20 pips.

Set stop-losses outside the expected range to limit losses.

checklist

Watch for a downside move around 1.1680

Confirmation of upside resistance near 1.1820

Be aware of the risk of continued dollar selling based on the results of U.S. economic indicators

Market Summary

GBPUSD is also slightly softer as dollar selling prevails against the backdrop of the U.S. government shutdown

The previous day closed in a directionless range around the low to mid 1.34s.

Markets are waiting for the next clue ahead of the release of U.S. economic indicators

Assumed range

Assume a downside of around 1.3370 and an upside of around 1.3550.

The market tends to move back and forth within a range, and it is difficult to get a clear sense of direction.

As the market continues to attack and defend at the upper and lower bounds, we would like to focus on the short-term swings.

tactics

Basically, trading is based on range rotation, checking reactions at the upper and lower limits

Attract to lower prices and try to push the price down, but be aware of early gains.

Consider a return sale at higher prices and confirm a reversal before taking action.

trigger

A break above 1.3550 would likely strengthen short-term buying interest.

Selling pressure is likely to prevail if the price breaks below 1.3370

Sudden fluctuations may occur during the release time of U.S. economic indicators

override condition

If there is a significant deviation from the expected range, revise the initial tactics.

Also invalid in case of a sudden spike after the release of an indicator that disrupts the reliability of the range.

Assumptions are also off when there are sudden changes due to geopolitical risks or sudden statements by key figures.

risk event

Important U.S. economic indicators released

Prolonged government shutdown and budget talks

Impact on the pound from UK economic indicators and statements by Bank of England officials

Position Management

Position size should be set more conservatively than usual

The profit target is based on 20 to 30 pips, and is taken in small increments.

Limit risk by placing the loss outside the expected range.

checklist

Watch for downside support around 1.3370

Confirmation of upside resistance near 1.3550

Be aware of the risk of fluctuations due to the results of U.S. economic indicators

Market Summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia showed a hawkish stance on inflationary pressures, leading to a strong bid for the Australian dollar.

AUDUSD hovered around the 0.66 level as the dollar sold off against the backdrop of a partial government shutdown in the U.S.

Markets are awaiting the release of U.S. economic indicators to find out the next direction

Assumed range

Assume a downside around 0.6550 and an upside around 0.6700.

Prices tend to stay within a range prior to the release of an index

Market participants are focusing on the upper and lower milestones

tactics

Basis is based on range rotation, interweaving short-term push-buying and return selling

Around the lower price, confirm the rebound and then try to push back in small increments

Prioritize gains when approaching higher prices and consider selling back after confirming a selloff.

trigger

A clear break above 0.6700 would likely strengthen the buyback trend.

Selling pressure is likely to prevail if the price breaks below 0.6550

Sudden fluctuations may occur during the time of the release of U.S. economic indicators

override condition

If the expected range is significantly deviated from, the original tactic is reverted to a blank sheet of paper.

Also invalid when support or resistance ceases to function due to a sudden spike after the release of an economic indicator

Assumptions are also off when sudden news reduces liquidity and disrupts price movements.

risk event

Important U.S. economic indicators released

Impact of Prolonged Government Shutdown on Market Sentiment

Spillover to AUD from Chinese economic indicators and resource price trends

Position Management

Position size should be controlled and adjusted to avoid excessive risk.

Interest gains are made in steps of around 20 pips.

Losses are placed outside the range to limit losses.

checklist

Watch for support around 0.6550

Confirming resistance around 0.6700

Be aware of the risk of sudden changes during the release time of U.S. economic indicators

looking back

Dollar selling started in Tokyo due to the partial shutdown of US government agencies and continued in Europe, while in New York, weak ADP pushed the dollar lower, but it bounced back down after the ISM uptick.

summary

Uncertainty weighed on the dollar's upside, and the yen had the upper hand for much of the day.

Indicators were mixed, with no clear trend.

Short-term trend remained range-centric as the market awaited events.

Today's Price Movement

Mainly traffic in the upper 146 yen to lower 148 yen range

Tokyo: Sell-offs are dominant, Europe: Highs are cutting back, New York: Late in the day, buy-backs are narrowing the gap

At the close, the price was struggling around 147 yen

Background & Materials

U.S. government agency shutdown raised awareness of statistical delay risk and policy uncertainty

ADP weak, raising awareness of rate cut expectations; ISM up slightly

The Bank of Japan's hawkishness and a mix of strong and weak domestic indicators were seen as factors supporting the yen.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The upside is around 148.20 and the downside is around 146.60.

5min-1hour MA slope is small, return selling and push-buying intermingle

Break before and after the indicator, beware of damashi

Technical Memo (mid-term)

150.00 is easily recognized as a psychological milestone

Around 147.00 is the most recent support zone to check for reaction.

Room for confirmation of a return trend at above 148.50, note the risk of continued adjustment at below 146.50.

impression

The day was material-driven, but with short-term dominance, it was difficult to get a sense of direction.

Need to watch for headlines and spikes during times of low liquidity.

trade observations

Range assumption, shallow gains and short unrealized gains

Stops are adjusted tight immediately before the index.

Reversals at the upper and lower limits focus on confirming reactions and accompanying volume

checklist

Reaction of potential push at 146.60-147.00

Return pressure at 148.20-148.50

Confirmation of timetable for U.S. economic indicators and key figures' statements

looking back

Dollar selling ahead due to partial shutdown of U.S. government agencies, but upside restrained by Eurozone PMI below 50, New York in a back-and-forth range due to ADP weakness and ISM slight uptick.

summary

Materials were mixed, and it was a day when it was difficult to get a sense of direction.

Weakness in the dollar and uncertainty about business confidence in the eurozone were making it difficult to follow the market up or down.

In the short term, the mood of waiting for events was strong, and the range-centered flow continued.

Today's Price Movement

The range remained generally in the 1.171-1.178 range.

Tokyo turned around on the back of dollar sales, while in Europe, the head was held back by PMIs

New York moves up on ADP, pared gains on buying back after ISM

Background & Materials

The dollar was easily weighed down by uncertainty due to the partial shutdown of U.S. government agencies.

ADP was lower than expected and there were times when the dollar was predominantly sold.

Slightly higher ISM restrained the extreme tilt toward a weaker dollar.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI again fell below 50, weighing on the euro

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The upside should be in the upper 1.178s to around 1.1800, and the downside should be around 1.171.

MAs are flat on the 5-minute to 1-hour legs, and beware of damascene breaks.

Spikes immediately after the index should be considered for entry after waiting for a return after a round of spikes.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Room for confirmation of a return trend above 1.1800, while a break below 1.1700 is likely to strengthen the view of a continuation of the adjustment.

The slope of the 50-day and 200-day lines is limited and should be range-bound for the time being

1.1850-1.1900 is a return pressure zone and 1.1650-1.1700 should confirm push behavior

impression

It was a day when multiple materials were in play simultaneously and there was a lot of room for discretion.

Price range was generated but lacked sustainability, and the maneuverability of gains made the difference between success and failure.

trade observations

The basic idea is to use range rotation, waiting for a reaction near the upper and lower limits and ticking in small increments.

New positions should be held back before and after the index, and existing positions should be kept at a short distance from the stop and gain.

Forward movement should be considered after attracting a break above 1.1800 and a break below 1.1700.

checklist

With push behavior and volume at 1.1700-1.1710

Sustained upside reaction and break above the 1.178s to 1.1800s

Confirmation of timetable for U.S. indicators and key figures' statements and whether spreads are widening

looking back

Partial shutdown of U.S. government agencies led to dollar sell-off in Tokyo, Europe was heavy on the upside with U.K. PMI below 50, and New York was up on ADP weakness but sluggish on ISM upswing

summary

Mixed factors of dollar weakness and weak UK business confidence limited direction

There were many times when it was difficult to follow the market both up and down and we tended to look away from the market.

Short term, the mood is strongly waiting for the event, and the range is centered in the range.

Today's Price Movement

Generally forming a traffic between 1.3440 and 1.3530

Tokyo is dominated by sellers returning to the market, while Europe is cutting back to higher highs

NY up after ADP, but pared down by buyers after ISM

Background & Materials

Partial shutdown of U.S. government agencies weighs on the dollar as policy uncertainty looms

ADP falls short of expectations, forming a stronger dollar selling phase

Slight uptick in ISM curbs tilt toward extreme dollar weakness

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Upside is around 1.3520-1.3550 area is a candidate for a return sale.

Lower price around 1.3370-1.3400 is the initial guide for a push.

Short-term MAs are flat and breakouts should be cautious of damashi

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Above 1.3600 is a return pressure zone, and 1.3300-1.3350 is a zone of thick supply and demand

The slope of the 50-day and 200-day lines is limited, and range consciousness is appropriate for the time being.

impression

Multiple factors are acting simultaneously, and the outlook is for short-term dominance.

Unsustainable price movements were frequent and the ability to maneuver gains was questioned.

trade observations

The basic idea is to use range rotation to check the reaction of the upper and lower limits and chop in small increments.

Immediately before the index, limit new orders and keep stops tight.

checklist

With push behavior and volume around 1.3400

Sustained upside reaction and break above 1.3520-1.3550

Timetable of U.S. indicators and key figures' statements and whether the spread is widening or not

looking back

AUD selling ahead in Tokyo but rallied on dollar selling awareness due to partial shutdown of US government agencies, while NY was sluggish with ISM slightly higher after ADP weak to the upside

summary

Materials are mixed, with limited sense of direction

Short term, the mood is strongly waiting for the event, and the range is centered in the range.

Today's Price Movement

The price is generally trading in a narrow range of 0.6590-0.6629.

Tokyo recovered from a small move around 0.6600, while New York had a mixed reaction after the index

Background & Materials

Partial shutdown of U.S. government agencies weighs on dollar amid policy uncertainty

ADP falls short of expectations and dollar selling dominates at times

ISM Manufacturing Slightly Higher, Curbing Excessive Dollar Weakness

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Upside is around 0.6630-0.6650 area is a candidate for a return sale.

Lower price confirms push behavior around 0.6590-0.6600

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Range recognition of 0.6550-0.6700 as a baseline.

Room for confirmation of a return trend above 0.6700, with continued adjustment risk noted below 0.6550.

impression

High dependence on headlines and discretionary nature of the market

Price range but lacks continuity, so mobility in gains is important.

trade observations

The basic idea is to wait for the upper and lower limits to react in a range rotation and chop in small increments.

Limit new orders before and after the index and adjust stops tightly.

checklist

With push reaction and volume around 0.6590

Sustained return pressure and break of 0.6630-0.6650

Timetable of U.S. indicators and key figures' statements and whether the spread is widening or not