Market Summary

On the previous day, dollar selling strengthened during the European hour, but buying returned at the end of the day in New York, reducing the downward trend.

The U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of major indices, and the lack of materials has caused price movements to take on an adjustment tone.

The market is hovering around the 147-yen level, keeping a close eye on the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential and tentative budget negotiations.

Assumed range

We expect a small range centered around 147.20-148.20 area.

Directionality is expected to be limited as US long-term interest rates are showing signs of settling down.

On the upside, weight will be felt around 148.20, and on the downside, support should be seen around 147.20.

tactics

For the time being, we will choose a tactic based on range rotation due to the lack of clear material.

Consider a return sale near the upper limit and a small push to buy near the lower limit.

It is advisable to keep positions light in case of sudden breaks.

trigger

A move above 148.30 would alert us to the possibility of stronger buying in the short term.

Selling pressure is likely to prevail on a clear break below 147.00.

Watch out for situations where interest rate developments and changes in U.S. Treasury yields in the European time frame could trigger.

override condition

If the pair continues to stay within the 147.50-148.00 range, the tactic will be nullified as it is difficult to get a sense of direction.

Assumptions will also break down in the event of large fluctuations due to sudden key figures' statements or intervention observations.

Switch to a wait-and-see approach once a sudden change that cannot hold the range is confirmed.

risk event

Reports of progress in the U.S. government's tentative budget negotiations and the prolonged shutdown.

A chain of sharp changes in U.S. Treasury yields and risk-off in the stock market.

Change in the strength of interest rate hike expectations due to comments by key BOJ officials.

Position Management

Keep the position size to about half the normal size and keep in mind short-term rotation.

Set the profit target at 20 to 30 pips and give priority to early profit taking.

The stop loss should be placed at a level 10-15 pips outside the expected range.

checklist

Is the range maintenance between 147.20 and 148.20 continuing?

Are there any changes in US long-term interest rates or bond market movements?

Have reports of tentative budget negotiations affected market sentiment?

Market Summary

The day before, the market was range-bound, swinging up and down against the backdrop of U.S. interest rate trends and eurozone inflation indicators.

Markets lack clues with no major economic indicators released due to partial closure of U.S. government agencies

Eurozone inflation accelerating and the ECB's stance remains in the low 1.17s while the focus remains on the ECB's stance

Assumed range

Assume a range around 1.1680-1.1780

Lower prices are likely to be supported around 1.1680, while higher prices are likely to be around 1.1780.

Lack of clear material is likely to continue to move in and out of the range

tactics

For the time being, we will base ourselves on range rotation and respond in small increments while checking the levels above and below.

Consider buying at the lower limit and selling on the return near the upper limit

Keep positions small and be prepared for sudden breaks

trigger

Watch for short-term buying acceleration on a clear break above 1.1800.

Assume selling pressure could increase if the price breaks below 1.1660

Movements in economic indicators and U.S. Treasury yields in European hours are likely to trigger changes

override condition

If the 1.1680-1.1780 range continues to hold, the effectiveness of the tactic will diminish

Assumptions are also invalidated in the event of sudden fluctuations due to unexpected key figures' statements or intervention observations

If the price movement converges without a clear sense of direction in the short-term leg, we will take a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

Reports of progress in talks over the U.S. government's tentative budget and the prolonged shutdown.

Revised Eurozone consumer prices and statements by ECB officials

News on U.S. employment-related statistics and interest rate trends

Position Management

Position size is about half the normal size to limit risk

Prioritize profits by setting a profit target of 20 to 30 pips and prioritize secure profits.

Stop loss is set at a level 10-15 pips outside the range plus

checklist

Is the range between 1.1680 and 1.1780 holding?

Are there any changes in U.S. interest rate trends or government bond yields?

Are there any ECB officials' statements or Eurozone inflation-related news?

Market Summary

The previous day, no major indicators were released due to the U.S. government agency closure, restraining the dollar's upward movement

On the UK side, BoE members have expressed a willingness to cut interest rates, and speculation over the policy stance is mixed

The price rose slightly while swinging up and down and continued to hover in the 1.34 range

Assumed range

Assume a range around 1.3420-1.3520

The focus will be on whether the downside is supported by the 1.3420 area.

Upside is likely to be aware of resistance around 1.3520

tactics

In the short term, trading is based on a range rotation, with a balance of ups and downs.

Consider buying at the lower limit and selling on the return near the upper limit

Maintain light positions due to lack of new material

trigger

Assume a stronger buying trend if the price breaks above 1.3530.

A break below 1.3400 could tilt the selling trend.

Movements in U.K. economic indicators and U.S. Treasury yields are likely to be triggered in European hours

override condition

Tactics are unlikely to be established if the market remains within the 1.3420-1.3520 range throughout the day.

Review tactics in the event of sudden changes due to sudden news, such as statements by key BOE officials.

If there is no sense of direction in the short term and the volume is thin, we will take a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

Reports on negotiations over the U.S. government's tentative budget and the prolonged shutdown

UK economic indicators and additional statements by BOE members

Changes in U.S. employment-related indicators and interest rate trends

Position Management

Position size is about half the normal size to limit risk.

Set the profit margin at 20 to 30 pips and accumulate profits in small increments.

Stop-losses are placed at a level 10-15 pips outside the range plus

checklist

Is the range between 1.3420 and 1.3520 holding?

Are there any significant changes in U.S. interest rates or government bond yields?

Are you checking for the presence or absence of BOE key figures' statements and UK economic news?

Market Summary

The previous day swung up and down, but the final daily line was a crosshair with no substance

Lack of material for the U.S. dollar with no major economic indicators released due to partial closure of U.S. government agencies

On the Australian side, a shrinking trade surplus has been confirmed, and fluctuations in resource prices are also affecting the market price.

Assumed range

Assume a small range centered around 0.6460-0.6540

Lower price is likely to confirm support around 0.6460, while higher price is aware of heaviness around 0.6540.

Likely to continue to move back and forth within the range amid material difficulties

tactics

For the time being, the company will respond in the short term at the upper and lower levels based on range rotation.

Consider buying at the lower limit and selling back at the upper limit

Keep positions light and prioritize preparation for sudden breaks.

trigger

Assume that a break above 0.6560 could strengthen short-term buying momentum.

Selling is likely to prevail on a break below 0.6440

Australian economic indicators in Asian time and interest rate trends in Europe and the U.S. could be triggers.

override condition

If it continues to fall within the range of 0.6460 to 0.6540, the clear tactical effect diminishes.

Assumptions will be broken if there are sudden changes due to statements by key figures in Australia or the U.S.

When there is a lack of direction in the short term and volume is declining, the priority is to take a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

Australian trade balance and statements from RBA officials

Discussions over the U.S. government's tentative budget and concerns about a prolonged shutdown.

U.S. employment-related statistics and bond market trends

Position Management

Limit risk by keeping position size to about half of normal

Set your profit target at 20 to 30 pips, and be aware of the early profit settlement.

Stop-losses are placed at a level 10 to 15 pips outside the range to prepare for unforeseen fluctuations.

checklist

Is the range of 0.6460-0.6540 holding?

Are there any new developments in Australian economic indicators or resource prices?

Any change in the U.S. political situation or interest rate-related news

looking back

In the European hour, the dollar sold off and pushed lower, but in the New York hour, buyers started to buy back and the downward trend narrowed.

summary

Partial closure of U.S. government agencies delayed the release of indexes and markets lacked clues.

A mixed day of dollar selling and buying back limited the direction of the market.

The daily price showed an adjustive movement with a small substance and a lower whisker.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo session was hovering around 147.50 with no significant movement.

The dollar was sold off in the European session, falling to around 147.20.

In the New York session, buyers bought back into the market, bringing it back to the 147.80 area.

Background & Materials

Difficulties in the U.S. government's tentative budget talks have raised concerns about a prolonged shutdown.

With no major economic indicators released, investors focused on interest rate trends and statements by key figures.

While there was awareness of the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, new material was limited.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

On the 1-hour time frame, the range between 147.20 and 147.80 was conscious and swung up and down.

RSI was neutral at around 50, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.

Short-term moving averages were flat and no clear trend was confirmed

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily showed the presence of a push with a small entity and a lower whisker

Bollinger Bands continue to hover around the 20-day moving average and are contracting

In the medium term, the price range of 147.00-148.50 is considered as the main range

impression

Lack of key materials led to a wait-and-see attitude in the market and price movements were limited.

Feeling the need to be wary of sudden moves amid lingering policy-related uncertainties

Range-consciousness seems to be the appropriate response when it is difficult to get a sense of direction.

trade observations

For short-term traders, the market was aiming for a traffic between 147.20 and 147.80

The tactic of accumulating small price gaps rather than expecting a breakout matched

Aggressive positions were difficult to take due to a wait-and-see attitude for new materials.

checklist

Is the range between 147.20 and 147.80 still holding?

Is there any progress in the U.S. government's tentative budget negotiations or reports of a prolonged shutdown?

Are there any changes in the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential or trends in U.S. Treasury yields?

looking back

In the European time, the euro was bought first, but after entering New York, the dollar gained strength and extended its downward movement, but by the end of the day, it was bought back and narrowed its downward movement.

summary

Partial closure of U.S. government agencies prevented the release of major indicators, leaving the market short of materials.

Conscious of Eurozone inflation indicators and ECB's stance, but not decisive

As a result, the market was directionless and settled in the low 1.17s.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time was a wait-and-see attitude with small movements in the 1.1730 area.

The euro was bought in European hours, temporarily rising to around 1.1770.

In the New York session, the dollar was bid higher and tested the 1.1700 level, but returned to the 1.1720 level by the end of the session.

Background & Materials

With no indicators released due to the U.S. government shutdown, investors focused on interest rates and key figures' statements.

Eurozone Inflation Rises to Upper 2%, Providing Insight into ECB's Stance

In the U.S., the market was affected by the trend in dollar interest rates as speculation of an interest rate cut smoldered.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

On the hourly timeframe, up and down movements were repeated in the range of 1.1700-1.1780

RSI was neutral at around 50 and short-term momentum was limited.

Short-term moving averages were sideways, suggesting a rotation within the range.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily shape was directionless with small entities and up and down whiskers

The 20-day moving average remained mostly flat and trendless

1.1680 - 1.1780 as the main range is the mid-term awareness line

impression

Amid a lack of materials, the exchange rate remained within a range and showed no significant direction.

The absence of policy-related and economic indicators gave the impression that market participants were less active.

Volatility was considered to be limited and trading was mainly range-bound

trade observations

Push-back near 1.1700 and return near 1.1780 were easy to be aware of

Lack of clear materials made short-term trading-oriented tactics more suitable.

The company was waiting for new material to determine the medium- to long-term direction.

checklist

Confirmation that the range of 1.1700-1.1780 will be maintained.

Focus on ECB key figures' statements and Eurozone indicators.

To see how the dollar reacts to reports of U.S. interest rates and tentative budget negotiations

looking back

In the European hour, the pound was bought first, but after entering New York, the dollar gained strength and extended its downward movement, but by the end of the hour, the pound was bought back and narrowed its decline.

summary

Markets lacked clues as major indices were put on hold due to partial closure of U.S. government agencies

On the U.K. side, the BoE's interest rate cut speculation and speculation over monetary policy were conscious

Overall, the market swung up and down amid material difficulties, but the sense of direction was limited.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo session ended with a small movement around 1.3470

The pound temporarily gained ground in European hours, rising to around 1.3520.

In New York, the dollar was bid higher and tested the 1.3440 level, but returned to the 1.3480 level at the end of the day.

Background & Materials

Interest rate headlines received attention as scheduled economic indicators were not released due to the U.S. government shutdown.

On the U.K. side, BoE members' comments raised awareness of their positive attitude toward interest rate cuts.

Lack of risk events kept market participants from moving

Technical Memo (Short-term)

On the 1-hour time frame, the range between 1.3440 and 1.3520 was conscious and the ups and downs continued to move back and forth

RSI remained around 50 and no clear signs of overheating were seen.

Short-term moving averages were flat, indicating a trendless situation

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily shape showed hesitation with small substance and up and down whiskers

The 20-day moving average was flat and medium-term direction was scarce.

The price range of 1.3400-1.3550 was considered as the main range

impression

Limited new material in both the U.S. and the U.K. reduced the aggressiveness of market participants.

There were some reactions to interest rate trends and key figures' statements, but they were not sustainable.

In the short term, I have the impression that the ground has continued to go through a series of adjustive comings and goings.

trade observations

Short-term traders were aware of a push at 1.3440 and a return at 1.3520

It was difficult to make a decision due to lack of materials to take a medium to long term position.

Small rotations within the range were a realistic tactic.

checklist

Is the range between 1.3440 and 1.3520 still holding?

Keep an eye on BOE member statements and UK indicators.

Check the impact of U.S. tentative budget negotiations and U.S. interest rate trends.

looking back

The Australian dollar was bought in the early part of Europe, but fell in the second half of Europe as the dollar gained strength, and it narrowed its decline toward the end of the New York session as buyers returned to the market by the end of the day.

summary

A day lacking in materials as major indicators were postponed due to the partial closure of U.S. government agencies

Upside was limited due to the contraction of Australia's trade balance and resource price swings.

Price movements were mainly back and forth within a range, with limited sense of direction.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time continued to move slightly around 0.6500

Early in Europe, the price was bought and rose to around 0.6530.

The dollar was bid up in the second half of Europe, falling to around 0.6470 and returning to the 0.6500 level in the second half of New York.

Background & Materials

U.S. interest rate trends and tentative budget reports were headline factors in the market.

In Australia, a shrinking trade surplus was reported, raising awareness of a slowdown in foreign demand.

Intraday volatility in resource prices affected short-term flows in the Australian dollar.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The range of 0.6460-0.6540 was conscious and reversals were noticeable at the top and bottom.

RSI remained neutral at around 50 and momentum was lackluster.

Short-term moving averages were flat, suggesting a range return.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily chart showed a wait-and-see mood with a crosshair-like pattern of small substance.

Bollinger bands contracted slightly as they hovered near the 20-day moving average

0.6440 and 0.6560 were considered as divergence levels for the time being.

impression

Amid material difficulties, only sensitivity to interest rates and headlines was high for the day.

Flows reacting to range reversal points rather than breaks were predominant.

Volume was limited and the impression was that the follow-up would be short-lived.

trade observations

The push-buy rotation worked when the lower limit was approached and the return rotation worked when the upper limit was approached.

It was suitable for an operation that prioritized small gains while suppressing expectations of a breakthrough.

It was safe to use half the normal size and be prepared for sudden changes.

checklist

Confirmation that the range of 0.6460 to 0.6540 is maintained.

Confirming the directional match between U.S. interest rate headlines and resource prices.

Check for changes in the schedule of Australian indicators and key figures' statements.