Market Summary

Partial U.S. government agency closure postpones jobs report, but ISM is scheduled and clues are limited

No novelty in BOJ Governor's remarks, but disappointing yen sell-off

The previous day, the price failed to break lower and a double bottom was formed on the 4-hour time frame, indicating the firmness of the lower price.

Assumed range

Assuming a trend centered around 147.20-148.70

Upside is a zone of easy return around 148.50-148.70

Lower price is around 147.20-147.30 to see if there is a push

tactics

Combined range rotation with push-buying as the axis

Pick up in installments near the lower limit and take a partial profit when approaching the upper limit.

When accelerating upward, follow-up is limited to small lots and short term.

trigger

Cautionary note that a break above 148.30 will likely increase buying momentum.

Short-term bullish scenario is likely to retreat and lean toward a return to the selling advantage if the pair breaks below 147.20.

Watch for changes in US Treasury yields and around the time of the ISM announcement in NY

override condition

Break expectations dampened if the price continues to stay in the middle of 147.70-148.20

If the volume is clearly below the double bottom right shoulder, the assumption will be withdrawn.

Switch to wait-and-see mode if volume declines and price contraction continues

risk event

Headlines on U.S. interim budget negotiations and extended government shutdown

Sharp change in U.S. Treasury yields and a risk-off shift in the stock market

Additional statements by BOJ officials and reports referring to the exchange rate

Position Management

Position size is capped at half the normal size and further reduced before the event

Execute profit taking in steps of 20 to 30 pips.

Stop loss is set at a level 10-15 pips outside the expected range

checklist

Check for a break above 148.30 or below 147.20.

ISM results and U.S. interest rates confirm directional match

Check for BOJ-related headlines and statements by key figures

Market Summary

U.S. government shutdown postpones jobs report, but ISM is on schedule and material is in focus

The previous day saw a long frame with up and down beards, and the firmness of the lower price and the heaviness of the upper price were recognized at the same time.

The price continues to hover around the 1.17 level amid a lack of direction.

Assumed range

Assuming traffic in the vicinity of 1.1680-1.1780

Lower price is likely to be considered as support around 1.1680

Upside resistance is strong in the 1.1780-1.1800 area.

tactics

Combination of push-buy and return-sell based on range rotation

In the short term, buy near 1.1700 and sell near 1.1780.

When a break occurs, follow the break only for a small amount of time and for a short period of time.

trigger

Short-term upward trend is likely to strengthen with a break above 1.1800

A downward test below 1.1680 is likely to be conscious

ISM results scheduled for NY hour could determine direction

override condition

Suspend the scenario if the market continues to stagnate at 1.1720-1.1760 and lacks direction

Refrain from making trend judgments when there is a series of coma legs with long vertical beards.

Range contraction with declining volume will set back break expectations

risk event

U.S. government shutdown-related reports and progress in interim budget talks

U.S. economic indicators including ISM announcement and statements by key figures

Price-related data for the European region and comments from ECB officials

Position Management

Size starts at half the normal size and shrinks further before the event

Execute profit taking in 20 to 30 pips in installments.

Stop-losses are set at a level 10-15 pips outside the expected range.

checklist

Confirmation that the 1.1680-1.1780 range will be maintained.

Checking the trend of U.S. interest rates after the ISM announcement.

Check for reactions to ECB-related comments and indicators.

Market Summary

A phase where persistence on the downside and heaviness on the upside coexist in a small entity with long beards on the top and bottom

Partial U.S. government agency closure postpones jobs report, but ISM on schedule and high-profile

The BoE Governor is scheduled to speak today, and speculation over the policy stance is likely to come to the fore

Assumed range

Assuming traffic around 1.3420-1.3520

Lower price confirms reaction around 1.3420

Note that the upside is likely to stagnate around 1.3520

tactics

Based on range rotation, consider pushing at the lower end and selling back at the upper end.

Lighten open interest before and after events and take profits when the price range is reduced.

When a break occurs, follow in small increments and withdraw promptly when the stall occurs.

trigger

Watch for a buy-dominant flow above 1.3530.

Strengthening preparations for a downside retest at below 1.3400.

Direction confirmed by BOE Governor's statement in European hour and ISM in NY hour

override condition

Tactical effectiveness is reduced when the mullet contracts due to continued stagnation in the middle of 1.3460-1.3490

Formation of a series of upper beards that stalls the upward trend.

Signal failed due to low volume and lack of response after the index

risk event

Reports on U.S. interim budget negotiations and extended government shutdown

Surprises in BOE key figures' statements and UK macro indicators

Risk-off due to sudden changes in U.S. interest rates and stock markets

Position Management

Size starts at half the normal size and further reduced just before the event

Interest rate target is 20-30 pips, executed in stages.

Stop loss is set at a level 10-15 pips outside the expected range

checklist

Sequential checks to see if the 1.3420-1.3520 range holds or breaks

Confirmation of BOE Governor's Remarks and the Direction of U.S. and U.K. Interest Rates after ISM

Check for continuity of key personnel headlines and flow

Market Summary

The previous day was led by Australian dollar selling against the backdrop of fluctuations in U.S. interest rates and resource prices, but a return was seen at the lower end of the range

Assumed range

Assuming a range centered around 0.6460-0.6540

The upside is likely to be held around 0.6525-0.6540, while the downside is likely to be supported around 0.6460

tactics

Taking small steps while switching between buying at the pushpoint and selling on the return based on the range rotation is effective.

Aim to buy near the lower limit and consider partial gains or selling back when approaching the upper limit

When a break occurs, take a cautious, small-lot approach to follow the break.

trigger

A break above 0.6545 could swing the price in a buy-dominant direction.

A break below 0.6455 would increase caution for a downside retest.

ISM announcement in NY time could trigger a change in direction

override condition

If the cage continues within 0.6480-0.6520, the range assumption is likely to break down.

The appearance of a series of legs with long up and down whiskers makes directional judgment unstable.

If volume continues to fall and range contraction continues, consider a change in tactics.

risk event

Reports of progress in tentative U.S. government budget talks and extension of the shutdown

Fluctuations in ISM releases and U.S. interest rate-related indicators

Sharp fluctuations in Australian trade indicators and resource prices

Position Management

Position size is half the normal amount to ensure tolerance to unforeseen fluctuations

The profit target is 20 to 30 pips for staged execution.

Losses are carefully set at a level 10-15 pips outside the range plus

checklist

Confirmation that the range of 0.6460 to 0.6540 is maintained.

Watch the ISM results and the direction of U.S. interest rates closely together.

To check reactions to changes in Australian indices, resource prices, and interest rate differentials.

looking back

In Tokyo hours, the yen was sold off in response to the BOJ governor's comments, but there was little movement after European hours, and in New York hours, the dollar was sold off due to weakness in the ISM, but the directionality of the dollar was limited.

summary

The day's price movements were responsive to materials but did not lead to a major trend, and overall the market remained in a range.

Market participants were holding back on new positions ahead of the weekend, while assessing the impact of the U.S. indicators.

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo hours, the yen sold off from around 147.80, but the rally was not sustained and stalled.

In the New York session, the ISM index weakness pushed the pair lower to around 147.30, but it subsequently bounced back.

Background & Materials

The comments by the BOJ governor were considered a factor in selling the yen, but lacked staying power as no major change in policy stance was seen.

The U.S. ISM results came in below expectations, which was a temporary selling factor for the dollar.

Concerns about the risk of a U.S. government shutdown also affected market sentiment and was a factor limiting the dollar's upside.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around 147.80 was considered as an upside level.

The area around 147.30 acted as support to the downside, confirming the range formation in the short term.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily range remains at 147.00-148.00.

The market continues to hold along the moving averages and there is no clear medium-term trend.

impression

Although there were some temporary reactions to the event, no strong directionality was generated.

There were several materials, but the impression was that none of them were able to form a continuous trend.

trade observations

In the short term, trading in response to materials was effective, but the environment was difficult to follow and extend.

It was a day when the focus tended to be on reverse and small price action within a range.

checklist

Confirmation of limited and unsustainable yen selling after BOJ governor's remarks

Conscious that weakness in the U.S. ISM was only a temporary dollar selling point

Confirmation that the range of 147.30-147.80 will be used as a short-term guide

looking back

In the European hour, the euro was bought in response to the Eurozone PMI results, and in the New York hour, the dollar was sold due to weakness in the U.S. ISM, but overall the direction of the market was not set.

summary

Eurozone economic indicators fell short of expectations in some areas, but the solidity of the services sector supported and underpinned the euro

The dollar was temporarily sold off in response to the U.S. index results, but the market did not form a clear trend and remained in a range

Today's Price Movement

The euro was bought around the 1.1700 level in European hours, rising to around 1.1730 at times

The dollar was temporarily sold off during the New York session on the back of the weak ISM, and the price rose to around 1.1750 but failed to sustain and stalled.

Background & Materials

Eurozone PMI was lower than expected, but the resilience of the services sector was recognized and temporarily induced euro buying

Weak U.S. ISM results prompted dollar selling, but the overall market trend remained cautious due to the risk of government shutdown

Uncertainty over the Fed's policy management was also a concern, limiting the dollar's movement.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 1.1700 area acted as support to the downside, triggering a rebound

The area around 1.1750 was considered as an upside resistance and could not be broken through.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily range of 1.1700-1.1800 remains conscious

Moving averages are moving sideways in the medium term and no clear trend has formed

impression

Although there were scenes of reaction to materials, the market as a whole lacked a sense of direction and remained in a holding pattern.

Market participants focused on economic indicators in the U.S. and Europe, but were reluctant to make aggressive moves due to the weekend factor.

trade observations

Trading in line with indicators was effective in the short term, but the price range to follow was limited.

The environment was one in which it was easy to focus on contrarian and short-term gains based on the assumption of a range.

checklist

Eurozone PMI falls short of expectations but confirms resilience of services sector

Weakness in the U.S. ISM was a selling point for the dollar, but of limited sustainability.

The price movement between 1.1700 and 1.1750 was considered as the range for the day.

looking back

Buying was ahead in the European hour, but stalled when the UK PMI fell short of expectations, and in the New York hour, the dollar sold off due to weakness in the US ISM, but remained in a range.

summary

The day's price movements reacted to European and U.S. indicators, but no sustainable trend was formed

Market participants were less aggressive ahead of the weekend, as price movements remained within a range.

Today's Price Movement

The pair rose to around 1.3480 in European hours, but was sluggish on the back of a downbeat PMI

Weakness in the ISM in the New York session led to dollar selling to around 1.3430 at one point, but it has since bounced back

Background & Materials

UK PMI below expectations, fears of slowing economic momentum restrained the pound's upside

Weakness in the U.S. ISM was a factor in the dollar sell-off, but the market was also aware of the risk of a government shutdown and Fed policy uncertainty, which limited the market's movement

Overall, the environment was difficult to create a sense of direction, as the materials canceled each other out.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 1.3425-1.3430 area was recognized as support to the downside and was a factor in the downside

The 1.3480 area acted as an upside resistance and a short-term limit to the return

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily range of 1.3400-1.3500 continues, suggesting a directionless holding

Moving averages are moving sideways and no clear trend signal has been confirmed

impression

There were some temporary reactions to European and U.S. indices, but overall, the market remained in a quiet range.

The market was waiting for a new trigger, and the mood of restraint was strong.

trade observations

In the short term, small trades using indicators were effective, but it was difficult to follow the price range.

A day that was suitable for trading with a focus on contrarian and short-term gains.

checklist

Downward swing in UK PMI confirms that the pound's upside has been restrained

Recognizing that the dollar sell-off due to weakness in the U.S. ISM was temporary and over

Sort out that the range of 1.3430-1.3480 was the main price level of the day

looking back

The Australian side lacked material and remained slightly lower throughout the day. In New York, weakness in the U.S. ISM led to a temporary dollar sell-off, but the directionality was limited.

summary

From Tokyo to Europe, the price remained calm around 0.6600 with no significant movement.

Weak ISM in the New York hour sold off the dollar and lifted the Australian dollar, but the momentum did not last long

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time remained in a narrow range centered around 0.6600

The ISM rallied to the 0.6615 area during the NY session on weakness in the ISM, but then fell back and converged back to the 0.6600 area

Background & Materials

On the Australian side, there was no particular new material and limited factors to give direction to the market.

On the U.S. side, weakness in the ISM triggered dollar selling, but the flow did not continue due to lingering uncertainties, including the risk of government shutdown

The mood of wait-and-see was strong in the market as a whole, and price movements were limited.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Around 0.6585 acted as support to the downside and was a guide for a short-term rebound

The 0.6615 area was considered as an upside resistance and was not broken through.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily price remains within the range of 0.6580-0.6630

Moving averages are flat and no clear trend has been identified in the medium term

impression

A lack of material on the Australian side and weak indicators on the U.S. side intermingled, restraining movement in one direction.

The market had some short-term reactionary phases, but the impression remained of strong adjustment ahead of the weekend.

trade observations

In the short term, it was possible to trade in line with the dollar sell-off following the ISM, but it was difficult to follow

Overall, it was an effective day for a range strategy with a focus on contrarian and small gains.

checklist

With no significant new material on the Australian side, the market lacked a sense of direction.

US ISM weakness triggered but did not sustain temporary dollar selling

The range of 0.6580-0.6630 was identified as the main trading range for the day