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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | September Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | August Retail Sales [month-on-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | August Retail Sales [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| type | Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇪🇺 Europe | European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde, remarks | |
| important person's statement | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Governor Bailey, Bank of England (BOE), remarks | |
| stage absence | - | 🇨🇳 China | - |
News
Japan: The LDP presidential election was held on April 4, and Sanae Takaichi was elected president of the LDP.
[France] Prime Minister Le Corgne resigns.
Today's Outlook
Following Mr. Takaichi's victory in the LDP party leadership election, the yen has weakened on expectations of fiscal expansion. The week started with a large window of opportunity, and the yen continued to sell off predominantly. The first thing to be seen is how far this momentum continues. On the other hand, we are also aware of the possibility of the window being filled, but since there is a gap of over 200 pips, it will be difficult to immediately fill the gap.
The risk of a U.S. government shutdown and weakness in the ISM continue to weigh on the dollar, while rising inflation in the Eurozone has led to speculation over the ECB's policy stance, and both sides of the equation are at play. The range has been in place for several days, and the market is in the process of testing both the upside and downside. A small gap was also seen at the close of the week, and a window-filling move is being considered. Overall, the market continues to respond to materials but lacks a clear direction, and the price action continues to be adjustment-oriented.
Weak PMIs for services and manufacturing in the U.K. have led to a cautious outlook for the economy, while in the U.S., the risk of a government shutdown and weakness in the ISM have restrained the dollar's upward movement. The market continues to search for a sense of direction amid such a mix of factors. The week started with a small window, and the market will be aware of the filling of that window. Overall, while reacting to the materials, no clear trend has formed and the market continues to remain calm.
While the RBA's decision not to cut interest rates is perceived as a certain amount of support, the risk of a government shutdown and weakness in the ISM in the U.S. weigh on the dollar, and materials are mixed. The Chinese economy and resource prices also remain in focus as background factors, but the market has been in a slight range for several days, and the market is in a testing phase to see which direction it will exit to the upside or downside. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment and wait-and-see attitude.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
The yen weakened significantly as expectations for fiscal expansion spread following Mr. Takaichi's victory in the LDP party leadership election. The yen was selling off sharply, opening a window of opportunity and rising above the 150-yen level during the Tokyo session. In Europe, the yen continued to sell off and the market was aware of the trend to test the upside, and in early New York, the dollar was bought against the backdrop of the U.S. interest rate trend, but ultimately ended the day holding at a higher level and the market was in a phase to assess its future sustainability.
The euro sold off sharply during the European session on the back of reports of French political instability, including the resignation of Prime Minister Jean-Lucorne, but the dollar was bought during the New York session against the backdrop of U.S. interest rate trends and narrowed its downward trend significantly. The price was consolidating lower amid rough price movements.
The dollar was in a limited state of movement with little sense of direction until the European session, when the US interest rate trend led to dollar buying in the New York session. As a result, the pound dollar tested the upside and ended the day on a high note.
In Tokyo, the AUD was bid ahead of the AUD, but in European hours, the AUD was sold off, and in New York, the AUD rallied again as the dollar was bid against the U.S. interest rate trend. The dollar closed at a high level toward the end of the session, but the overall trend remained within a small range, with no major directionality, although the trend changed from one market to another.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
Mr. Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election has raised expectations for fiscal expansion, and the yen is weakening.
The week started with a large window of opportunity, and the yen has continued to sell off predominantly since then
Assumed range
Assuming around 148.50 to 150.50 area
Although there is a sense of window filling, there is a gap of over 200 pips, and short-term upside test is prevailing
tactics
Take a buy at the push point as a basic stance, and if there is a downward push, pick it up in stages
However, be cautious about following up purchases, keeping in mind the possibility of window filling.
trigger
Possible acceleration of yen sell-off if clear above 150.50
A break below 148.50 will increase awareness of window filling.
Political reports in Tokyo time, U.S. economic indicators in New York time will be a factor of fluctuation
override condition
If there is a pronounced move below 148.50 to fill the window, the push-back strategy will be negated.
Conversely, if 150.50 is clearly exceeded and established, the return selling strategy will no longer be viable.
risk event
Additional reports and statements by key figures regarding the Japanese government's fiscal policy
Risk of U.S. government shutdown and release of key economic indicators
Long-term interest rate trends affecting the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential
Position Management
Position size should be kept lower than usual to account for window filling risk
Gains are determined in steps of 30-50 pips.
Set stop-losses when support is broken or resistance is breached, and be prepared for unexpected moves.
checklist
Check to see if the price remains within the range of 148.50 to 150.50
Watch the progress of window filling.
Inspect the impact of fiscal policy and U.S. indicators on the exchange rate
Market Summary
The risk of a U.S. government shutdown and weakness in the ISM weigh on the dollar, while rising inflation in the eurozone creates speculation about ECB policy, and the range remains directionless
Assumed range
Assuming price movement around 1.1700 - 1.1800
Neither up nor down, and the struggle is continuing for several days.
tactics
In the short term, the basic idea is to range, buy at support, and sell back at resistance.
Priority is given to short-term gains until a breakout move is made.
trigger
Focus is on a clear break above 1.1800 to the upside.
A downside would be below 1.1700, a level to be aware of.
Eurozone and U.S. economic indicators released in European time are likely to trigger volatility
override condition
A major break below 1.1700 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if 1.1800 is strongly breached and established, the return strategy will no longer be viable.
risk event
Progress of the U.S. government agency shutdown and related press coverage
Eurozone inflation indicators and statements from ECB officials
Results of U.S. economic indicators (especially employment-related)
Position Management
Keep position size at about half the normal level and prepare for the reversal risk inherent in range-bound markets.
Take profits in the range of 20 to 40 pips, and take profits early when the price moves are slow.
Stop-losses are set when support and resistance are clearly exceeded, and are flexible enough to avoid being caught in a damascene situation.
checklist
Check to see if the 1.1700-1.1800 range is holding.
Inspect the impact of U.S. political risks and economic indicators
Eurozone Inflation Indicators Watch for Impact on ECB Policy Observations
Market Summary
GBPUSD continues to search for direction as weak UK PMI results remain a concern for the economy, while the risk of a U.S. government shutdown and weakness in the ISM weigh on the dollar
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 1.3400 to around 1.3500
We are in the process of exploring a break either up or down, with a window filling in at the end of the week.
tactics
Based on range rotation, buy near support and sell near resistance
Prioritize short-term price action until a clear breakout is confirmed.
trigger
The focus for a break above 1.3500 is likely to be triggered by indicators in Europe and economic releases in the U.S.
A downside break below 1.3400 will be watched, and an acceleration of window-filling could increase downward pressure.
override condition
If 1.3500 is clearly breached and established, the return strategy is negated.
Conversely, if the price settles well below 1.3400, the push-buy strategy will no longer be viable.
risk event
Release of UK economic indicators and statements from BoE officials
Press coverage of the U.S. government shutdown and progress in negotiations
Trends in the release of major U.S. economic indicators
Position Management
Position size is about half the normal size to prepare for the reversal risk inherent in a range market.
Consider taking profits in the range of 20 to 40 pips, and consider closing your positions early if the price moves slowly.
Set stop-losses when support or resistance is clearly exceeded and be prepared for unexpected price movements.
checklist
Check to see if the range of 1.3400-1.3500 is holding.
Track progress of U.S. government agency shutdown risk
Inspect the impact of UK economic indicators and BoE statements on the market.
Market Summary
AUDUSD lacks direction amid mixed materials as the RBA's decision not to cut rates supports the AUD, while the risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. and weakness in the ISM weigh on the dollar
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 0.6580 to 0.6650
The search continues for which way out of the range that has been in place for several days.
tactics
For the time being, the basic strategy is range rotation, combining buying on the downside support and selling on the upside resistance.
Until the breakout is confirmed, maintain a short-term, profit-taking strategy.
trigger
Focus is on whether the upside can be established above 0.6650.
Downside is a warning line below 0.6580, and volatility is likely to intensify with the release of indicators in the European and New York hours.
In particular, news related to resource prices and the Chinese economy could act as triggers
override condition
If 0.6650 is clearly breached and established, the return strategy is negated.
If the price settles well below 0.6580, the push-back strategy will no longer be viable.
risk event
RBA-related statements and release of Australian economic indicators
News reports and progress in negotiations over the U.S. government agency closure
Fluctuations in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices
Position Management
Set position sizes conservatively and be prepared for sudden breaks.
Settling profits in 20 to 40 pips as a guide, and give priority to early profit-taking in slow price movements.
Set stop-losses when major support or resistance is clearly broken, and be flexible to avoid getting caught in a false move.
checklist
Check to see if the range of 0.6580-0.6650 is still holding.
Inspect the RBA's policy stance and statements and their impact on the market.
Watch for how U.S. and Chinese indicators will affect the Australian dollar's price movement
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
The yen weakened on expectations of fiscal expansion following Mr. Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election, and the dollar closed higher, breaking through the 150-yen level.
summary
The yen continued to sell off as the yen continued to rise, opening a window from Tokyo time.
In the European time, the upward test of the dollar was also recognized, and in the New York time, the dollar was bought on the back of the trend of the U.S. interest rate.
Some selling occurred toward the close, but the highs were maintained and the focus was on sustainability.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo session opened a window and the yen sold off sharply to over 150.00
The yen continued to sell off in Europe, testing the 150.30 area.
The dollar was bought early in the New York session and was around 150.40, but there was some adjustment toward the end of the session.
Background & Materials
Takaichi won the LDP leadership election, and expectations for fiscal expansion were a factor in the yen sell-off.
U.S. interest rate trends supported dollar buying and awareness of widening Japan-U.S. interest rate gap
Meanwhile, the risk of U.S. government agency closures remained, weighing on the dollar.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
150.00 was recognized as a psychological milestone, which was breached by a sharp rise in Tokyo time.
The price was at 150.40, which was the upside resistance for the day, and was sluggish due to profit-taking by the end of the day.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily price is expected to consolidate above 150.00, and the possibility of a range breakout is being explored.
The situation is clearly above the 200-day moving average, confirming a strong support zone in the short to medium term
impression
Yen selling triggered by political events boosted the market, but sustainability remains uncertain
After breaking through the milestone, the move was accompanied by a sense of caution among market participants, and the impression was that active follow-through was limited.
trade observations
In the short term, the window was used to push the price down, but by the close, the price range was reduced due to adjustments.
A day of trading suitable for short-term trading, with many trades prioritizing profit-taking ahead of a major milestone.
checklist
Confirmation of the degree of fixation above 150.00
Watch for U.S. interest rate trends to support dollar buying
Inspect the impact of reports of government shutdown risk on the dollar-yen.
looking back
The euro was sold during the European hour due to the turmoil in French politics, but the dollar was bought during the New York hour, narrowing the decline
summary
In the European hour, reports of Prime Minister Lecorne's resignation triggered euro selling and the market fell sharply
The Eurodollar rebounded from its lows in New York as the dollar was bought on the back of U.S. interest rate developments
As a result, the big drop was limited and the price returned to around 1.1710 by the close.
Today's Price Movement
The decline started around 1.1740 and pushed lower to around 1.1660 through European hours
Later in the NY session, the dollar was bought and the Eurodollar rebounded to close at around 1.1710
Short-term price movements were rough and lacked a sense of direction.
Background & Materials
Instability in French politics was perceived as a political risk in Europe, triggering euro selling
Inflation-related comments by ECB officials were a supportive factor, but overall market sentiment was limited
While the risk of a government shutdown remains in the U.S., U.S. interest rate trends supported dollar buying.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
1.1740 was considered as the day's upside resistance and could not be broken through during European hours
Around 1.1660 was the day's downside support and the starting point for a rebound through the New York hours.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
On a daily basis, the price continued to attack the 1.1700 area and consolidate lower prices
The 1.1650 level is a cautionary level, while 1.1800 is considered as a medium-term resistance zone.
impression
Political uncertainty in Europe was a downside factor for the euro, but was offset by U.S. interest rate factors
As a result, there is no major direction in the rough movement and the market is waiting for materials
trade observations
Return selling worked on the downside in the European hour, but a rebound in the New York hour led to profit taking by short-term sources
In the closing stages, position adjustment prevailed, and there was an impression that there was a lot of movement to avoid carrying over
checklist
Check to see if the price stabilizes around 1.1700
Watching the impact of developments in French politics on the euro
Inspect how U.S. interest rate trends and political risk will affect the dollar
looking back
European hours were directionless, but dollar buying strengthened in the New York hours and the pound dollar closed higher.
summary
Price range was limited from Tokyo to Europe due to material difficulties.
In the New York time, the dollar was bought against the backdrop of the US interest rate trend, pushing the pound down.
Finally, the trade closed with the price holding at a high level, and there was no movement out of the short-term range
Today's Price Movement
The price hovered around 1.3430-1.3450, moving up and down slightly from hour to hour with no major movements.
The dollar was supported by dollar buying from the beginning of the New York session and rose to the 1.3480 level, where it remained until the close.
The day's range was narrow and no major directional changes were made.
Background & Materials
UK construction PMI and composite PMI weakened, curbing growth expectations
In the U.S., the risk of a government shutdown remains, while rising interest rates provided support for dollar buying
No clear trend was formed due to a mixture of political factors and economic indicators
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 1.3430 area acted as support for the day, supporting lower prices.
1.3480 became an upside resistance and was tested multiple times before the close, but failed to break through.
Range rotation was an effective phase for short-term trading.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The area around 1.3400 was recognized as medium-term support, limiting downside potential.
The 1.3500 area is still considered by the market as a strong resistance
The situation is still under attack at the upper and lower ends of the medium-term range
impression
U.S. interest rate factors marked dollar buying, while economic indicators on the pound side showed weakness.
Overall, however, prices remained limited, and market participants remained in search of a larger sense of direction.
trade observations
Short-term trades focused on range strategies utilizing narrow price ranges.
European hours were quieter and trading was more effective in line with the movement in NY hours.
There was a marked preference for profit-taking, and many avoided holding onto their holdings.
checklist
Check to see if the range between 1.3430 and 1.3480 is holding.
Watch for U.S. interest rate trends to continue to support dollar buying
Inspect how weakness in UK economic indicators will affect the pound
looking back
In Tokyo time, buying was ahead, but in Europe time, selling prevailed, and in New York time, the dollar bounced back and closed at a higher level.
summary
No major material was seen on the Australian side, and market price movements were mainly driven by external factors.
Selling was predominant in European hours, testing the downside at times, but was supported by dollar buying in New York hours
In the end, the market remained in a range with no major directional changes while maintaining a high price range.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time, the price rose to around 0.6610 and was dominated by buyers.
The price was pushed back to the 0.6600 area in European hours and the sell-off intensified.
In New York, the dollar was bought by the U.S. interest rate trend and rebounded to around 0.6620
Background & Materials
With no new economic indicators released from Australia, the day was short on materials.
In the U.S., the risk of government agency closures and weak economic indicators remained a concern
Resource prices and China's economic trends were noted as factors supporting market sentiment.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
0.6600 acted as support and helped lower the price.
The 0.6620 area was the day's upside resistance and did not break
A clear attack and defense of support and resistance appeared, albeit in a narrow price range
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The range between 0.6580 and 0.6650 is still in place, making it difficult to get a sense of direction in the medium term
Moving averages show a sideways trend and no clear trend can be confirmed
In the medium term, the area above 0.6700 continues to be considered as a strong resistance zone
impression
AUD lacked unique materials and was limited by U.S. factors.
Market participants were waiting for major events, and large transactions were limited.
There was a noticeable trend of prioritizing gains in short-term price movements.
trade observations
Push-buying was effective in Tokyo time, but profit-taking proceeded with the selloff in European time.
The rebound in the New York session was mainly due to short-term muscle buybacks, and its sustainability was limited.
Overall, the day was dominated by short-term trading with an awareness of range rotation.
checklist
Check to see if support for 0.6600 remains in effect
Watch for U.S. interest rate trends to continue to support dollar buying
Inspect new economic indicators from Australia and China to see if they affect the market.
FX Diary