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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August New orders in manufacturing [month-on-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August New orders in manufacturing [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| type | Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| stage absence | - | 🇨🇳 China | - |
Today's Outlook
Following the election of Sanae Takaichi as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, expectations for fiscal expansion have spread and the yen continues to come under pressure. The yen continues to hover above the 150-yen level, a psychological milestone, and it is easy to be aware of a test of the upside. We are now in a phase of assessing how far the short-term momentum will be sustained.
Although there was a downward push on the previous day against the backdrop of political unrest in France, a buy-back was made toward the end of the day and left a lower whisker on the daily chart. Although this move has led some to believe that the lower price has solidified, it is not enough to be sure, and the market remains unstable. Today, the initial sense of direction will be closely watched to see whether the market will test the downside again, or whether it will confirm the lower support and test the upside.
The previous day was a continuation of the directionless development. Today is also expected to be a day of searching for short-term direction without any major materials.
The previous day was a day without a sense of direction, with each market changing its flow but remaining within a small range. Today will be another day of searching for a short-term direction without any major materials.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has strengthened expectations for fiscal expansion, and the yen continues to weaken, keeping the dollar at the 150-yen level.
Assumed range
Assuming around 149.50 to 151.00 area
The market continues to stay above the psychological milestone and is aware of ups and downs testing the market.
tactics
Emphasize entry near support based on buying at the push point
On the other hand, be cautious when chasing higher prices and prioritize gains at the upper end of the range.
trigger
A clear break above 151.00 could reignite yen selling pressure
A break below 149.50 would disrupt the push-back strategy.
Tokyo time: remarks by government officials Europe and New York time: focus on U.S. economic indicators
override condition
A significant break below 149.50 and below the lower end of the range would negate the push-buy strategy.
Conversely, if the price breaks through 151.00 and becomes established, it will be difficult to establish a return selling strategy
risk event
Possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities and related statements
Risk of U.S. government agency closure and congressional related reports
Major U.S. economic indicators released and interest rate trends
Position Management
Position size is about half the normal size to prepare for increased volatility.
Prioritize short-term profit with a profit margin of 30-50 pips.
Stop-losses are set when a clear break below support or resistance.
checklist
Confirmation of the degree of consolidation of the 150 yen level
Watch for statements and intervention stance of Japanese authorities
Inspect U.S. economic indicators to see if they continue to be a factor in buying the dollar
Market Summary
The market was pushed lower against the backdrop of political unrest in France, but it was bought back by the close, leaving a lower whisker on the daily chart and confirming the underlying support, albeit unsteadily.
Assumed range
Assuming around 1.1660 - 1.1740 area
Both a test of lower and higher prices are possible, and the initial direction of the market is noteworthy.
tactics
Based on range rotation, consider pushing near support and selling back near resistance.
Respond flexibly to short-term movements and prioritize gains.
trigger
A clear break above 1.1740 would strengthen the upside test.
A break below 1.1660 could shift the trend to test the downside again
Indicators and key figures in the European time and U.S. economic indicators in the New York time are likely to be material.
override condition
If the price falls well below 1.1660 and the daily low continues, the push-back strategy will be negated.
Conversely, if 1.1740 is clearly breached and established, it will be difficult to establish a return selling strategy.
risk event
Additional reports on French politics and widening political risks
New Eurozone inflation-related data released
Risk of U.S. government agency closure and key economic indicators released
Position Management
Be prepared for rough price movements by keeping position sizes smaller than usual.
Aim for a profit margin of 20 to 40 pips and focus on short-term profit taking.
Losses are taken when a break below support or a break through resistance is clearly identified.
checklist
Confirmation that the range of 1.1660 - 1.1740 is maintained
Watching the impact of developments in French politics on the euro
Inspect U.S. interest rates and U.S. economic indicators to determine the direction of the dollar.
Market Summary
The previous day continued to lack a sense of direction, with limited up and down movement
Lacking major materials, a day of searching for short-term direction is expected today.
Reactions to U.S. interest rate trends and U.K. economic indicators could lead to local price movements
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 1.3380-1.3480
The downside is likely to be around 1.3380, while the upside is likely to be restrained around 1.3480.
Conscious of coming and going within a narrow price range in the short term
tactics
Emphasis on range rotation due to lack of clear direction at present
Consider buying on the downside and combine with a return sale on the upside.
Aiming for small gains and avoiding unreasonable positions
trigger
Focus is on a clear crossing of 1.3500 to the upside.
Note that a break below 1.3360 should be confirmed.
UK economic indicators in the European time zone and US interest rate trends in the New York time zone could be turning points
override condition
Return selling tactic may be negated above 1.3520
Conversely, push-back tactics are less likely to work below 1.3340.
Check for a change in direction at the daily close
risk event
UK economic indicators (related to construction and services)
Reports on U.S. interest rates and risk of government shutdown
Sudden fluctuations due to statements by key figures in major countries
Position Management
Maintain small position size for range assumption
Aim for small profit margins of 20 to 30 pips.
Losses are set tight based on recent highs and lows
checklist
Trading with an eye on the 1.3380-1.3480 range.
Check the release times of economic indicators in the UK and the US.
Keep positions light in case of sudden news or statements by key figures
Market Summary
On the previous day, the market flow changed as buying was led in Tokyo, selling prevailed in Europe, and the dollar was bought in New York.
Overall, however, the market remained in a small range centered around the 0.6600 area and lacked a sense of direction.
Today, too, there is little new material of note, and the market is likely to search for a short-term sense of direction.
Assumed range
Assuming a range centered around 0.6580-0.6640
The downside is likely to be in the 0.6580 area and the upside in the 0.6640 area.
Large trends are unlikely to emerge, and mainly small movements are expected.
tactics
In the short term, range rotation is the basic tactic.
Repeat buying on the way down and selling on the way up
Avoid large positions and aim for small gains.
trigger
Exit to the upside is if there is a clear move above 0.6650.
Downside is if a break below 0.6570 is confirmed.
Flows in the European time zone and U.S. interest rate trends in the New York time zone will be key.
override condition
Return strategy may be negated above 0.6660
Conversely, below 0.6560, a push-buy strategy is less likely to work.
Watch for signs of range denial at the daily close position.
risk event
Release of economic indicators related to Australia and China
U.S. interest rate-related reports and risk of government agency closures
Sudden material from statements by key figures in major countries
Position Management
Maintain light position due to range centered
Execute interest early at around 15-25 pips.
Losses are set tight based on recent highs and lows
checklist
Respond with an awareness of the 0.6580-0.6640 range.
Check for developments in U.S. interest rates and news related to the Chinese economy.
Keep positions light in case of sudden events
FX Diary