Market Summary

The election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has strengthened expectations for fiscal expansion, and the yen continues to weaken, keeping the dollar at the 150-yen level.

Assumed range

Assuming around 149.50 to 151.00 area

The market continues to stay above the psychological milestone and is aware of ups and downs testing the market.

tactics

Emphasize entry near support based on buying at the push point

On the other hand, be cautious when chasing higher prices and prioritize gains at the upper end of the range.

trigger

A clear break above 151.00 could reignite yen selling pressure

A break below 149.50 would disrupt the push-back strategy.

Tokyo time: remarks by government officials Europe and New York time: focus on U.S. economic indicators

override condition

A significant break below 149.50 and below the lower end of the range would negate the push-buy strategy.

Conversely, if the price breaks through 151.00 and becomes established, it will be difficult to establish a return selling strategy

risk event

Possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities and related statements

Risk of U.S. government agency closure and congressional related reports

Major U.S. economic indicators released and interest rate trends

Position Management

Position size is about half the normal size to prepare for increased volatility.

Prioritize short-term profit with a profit margin of 30-50 pips.

Stop-losses are set when a clear break below support or resistance.

checklist

Confirmation of the degree of consolidation of the 150 yen level

Watch for statements and intervention stance of Japanese authorities

Inspect U.S. economic indicators to see if they continue to be a factor in buying the dollar

Market Summary

The market was pushed lower against the backdrop of political unrest in France, but it was bought back by the close, leaving a lower whisker on the daily chart and confirming the underlying support, albeit unsteadily.

Assumed range

Assuming around 1.1660 - 1.1740 area

Both a test of lower and higher prices are possible, and the initial direction of the market is noteworthy.

tactics

Based on range rotation, consider pushing near support and selling back near resistance.

Respond flexibly to short-term movements and prioritize gains.

trigger

A clear break above 1.1740 would strengthen the upside test.

A break below 1.1660 could shift the trend to test the downside again

Indicators and key figures in the European time and U.S. economic indicators in the New York time are likely to be material.

override condition

If the price falls well below 1.1660 and the daily low continues, the push-back strategy will be negated.

Conversely, if 1.1740 is clearly breached and established, it will be difficult to establish a return selling strategy.

risk event

Additional reports on French politics and widening political risks

New Eurozone inflation-related data released

Risk of U.S. government agency closure and key economic indicators released

Position Management

Be prepared for rough price movements by keeping position sizes smaller than usual.

Aim for a profit margin of 20 to 40 pips and focus on short-term profit taking.

Losses are taken when a break below support or a break through resistance is clearly identified.

checklist

Confirmation that the range of 1.1660 - 1.1740 is maintained

Watching the impact of developments in French politics on the euro

Inspect U.S. interest rates and U.S. economic indicators to determine the direction of the dollar.

Market Summary

The previous day continued to lack a sense of direction, with limited up and down movement

Lacking major materials, a day of searching for short-term direction is expected today.

Reactions to U.S. interest rate trends and U.K. economic indicators could lead to local price movements

Assumed range

Assuming a range around 1.3380-1.3480

The downside is likely to be around 1.3380, while the upside is likely to be restrained around 1.3480.

Conscious of coming and going within a narrow price range in the short term

tactics

Emphasis on range rotation due to lack of clear direction at present

Consider buying on the downside and combine with a return sale on the upside.

Aiming for small gains and avoiding unreasonable positions

trigger

Focus is on a clear crossing of 1.3500 to the upside.

Note that a break below 1.3360 should be confirmed.

UK economic indicators in the European time zone and US interest rate trends in the New York time zone could be turning points

override condition

Return selling tactic may be negated above 1.3520

Conversely, push-back tactics are less likely to work below 1.3340.

Check for a change in direction at the daily close

risk event

UK economic indicators (related to construction and services)

Reports on U.S. interest rates and risk of government shutdown

Sudden fluctuations due to statements by key figures in major countries

Position Management

Maintain small position size for range assumption

Aim for small profit margins of 20 to 30 pips.

Losses are set tight based on recent highs and lows

checklist

Trading with an eye on the 1.3380-1.3480 range.

Check the release times of economic indicators in the UK and the US.

Keep positions light in case of sudden news or statements by key figures

Market Summary

On the previous day, the market flow changed as buying was led in Tokyo, selling prevailed in Europe, and the dollar was bought in New York.

Overall, however, the market remained in a small range centered around the 0.6600 area and lacked a sense of direction.

Today, too, there is little new material of note, and the market is likely to search for a short-term sense of direction.

Assumed range

Assuming a range centered around 0.6580-0.6640

The downside is likely to be in the 0.6580 area and the upside in the 0.6640 area.

Large trends are unlikely to emerge, and mainly small movements are expected.

tactics

In the short term, range rotation is the basic tactic.

Repeat buying on the way down and selling on the way up

Avoid large positions and aim for small gains.

trigger

Exit to the upside is if there is a clear move above 0.6650.

Downside is if a break below 0.6570 is confirmed.

Flows in the European time zone and U.S. interest rate trends in the New York time zone will be key.

override condition

Return strategy may be negated above 0.6660

Conversely, below 0.6560, a push-buy strategy is less likely to work.

Watch for signs of range denial at the daily close position.

risk event

Release of economic indicators related to Australia and China

U.S. interest rate-related reports and risk of government agency closures

Sudden material from statements by key figures in major countries

Position Management

Maintain light position due to range centered

Execute interest early at around 15-25 pips.

Losses are set tight based on recent highs and lows

checklist

Respond with an awareness of the 0.6580-0.6640 range.

Check for developments in U.S. interest rates and news related to the Chinese economy.

Keep positions light in case of sudden events

looking back

After hovering around the 150-yen level during the Tokyo time, yen selling gained momentum during the European time and accelerated in the New York time against the backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates, breaking through the August highs and closing at a higher level.

summary

The weak yen trend was supported by political factors and rising U.S. interest rates.

Crossing the milestone has moved the market to test the sustainability of the short-term price movement.

Markets are entering a phase of searching for new upside potential

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time was dominated by firings in the 150.20-150.80 area

The yen was selling off toward the end of the European session and rose to 151.00.

During the New York session, the dollar was bought against the backdrop of rising U.S. long-term interest rates, reaching around 151.50 at one point.

Background & Materials

With the election of Mr. Takaichi as LDP president, expectations for fiscal expansion were a factor in the yen sell-off.

In the U.S., rising long-term interest rates supported dollar buying.

No particular risk aversion materialized, and the market was dominated by trading with an awareness of the yen's weakening direction.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The latest rise clearly broke through 151.00 and the August high

Short-term moving averages are supporting lower prices and buying pressure is being maintained.

RSI is at a high level and there is a sense of overheating in the short term

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The uptrend is continuing on a daily basis, with the lows being made

Weekly trend shows signs of strengthening as it crosses above long-term resistance

On the other hand, it is approaching the upper limit of the Bollinger Band, and the possibility of an adjustment remains.

impression

A combination of political factors and U.S. interest rates solidified the yen's weakness for the day.

Short-term price movements showed strength, but we must not forget to be wary of overheating

The market is entering a phase of waiting for the next material, and we need to carefully check the sustainability of the movement.

trade observations

The push-buy stance was effective, but new entrants needed to be cautious when crossing milestones

In short-term trading, gains at higher prices are effective, and follow-up purchases are risky.

There was room to enter strategically, checking for range cut-offs.

checklist

Confirming sustainability after breaking through 151.00

Watch for continued support from U.S. interest rate trends

Be prepared for the risk of short-term adjustments due to overheating

looking back

Selling of the euro began in Tokyo, accelerated in Europe, and was temporarily restored in New York, but was again sold off by the close of trading.

summary

Overall weakness as concerns over French politics continue to weigh on the euro

On the other hand, the momentum to the downside was slowed by buying back in New York, leaving a small return at the end of the day.

In general, the trend of selling the euro continued, but there were times when it could not be pushed to the limit.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo session saw more downward pressure below the 1.10 level.

Selling accelerated into the European session, testing the late 1.09 level.

In New York, a temporary buy-back was seen, bringing the price back to the low 1.10s, but it was sold off again by the close.

Background & Materials

Continued uncertainty over the French political situation undermined the euro's investment appeal

U.S. interest rate trends remained supportive of the dollar and the relative weakness of the euro

Weak European economic indicators were another factor reinforcing the euro sell-off

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The price continued to move around the 1.10 level, which was recognized as a psychological milestone.

Support was confirmed once near the previous day's low, but the rebound was limited

Short-term moving averages maintain downward trend, suggesting heavy upside

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily trend of lower highs continues and the return phase tends to remain limited

On a weekly basis, the 1.09 area is a candidate for medium-term support as adjustment from the 1.12 level continues.

Long-term trend remains in favor of the dollar

impression

Euro selling due to political factors continues, but not to a sharp decline, and markets remain cautious.

The impression is that the situation remained in a certain equilibrium with buybacks while testing lower prices.

The environment is still difficult to lean in one direction, and it is easy to swing depending on the appearance of materials.

trade observations

The strategy of taking advantage of the short-term selling trend was effective, but the buy-back in the New York time forced an adjustment at times.

The market was geared toward short-term trading, with repeated trading around the 1.10 milestone.

Carrying over required careful position management, as it was difficult to determine the direction of the market.

checklist

Check for media coverage of major political risks

Observe support holding around 1.10

Watch the U.S. interest rate trend and the U.S. dollar index closely together.

looking back

Selling of the pound began in the Tokyo time and accelerated in the European time, but the pound was temporarily bought back in the New York time, but sold off again by the end of the day, ending near the previous day's low.

summary

The day began with a strong sell-off, with buy-backs interspersed with strong dollar buying

Selling momentum weakened at the end of the day and the market traded in a lower range, ending the day lacking a sense of direction.

Overall, the day was marked by a continued search for lower prices while reacting to materials.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo session saw selling lead the way, falling to the low 1.29s.

The move was accelerated by the European time, with the previous day's low in sight.

In New York, there was a temporary buy-back, but the dollar once again gained the upper hand and the level was lowered.

Background & Materials

Weak indicators in the U.K. services and manufacturing sectors have increased uncertainty about the economic outlook.

In the U.S., rising long-term interest rates were perceived as a factor in buying the dollar, restraining the return of the pound.

The overall European mood of risk aversion was also affected, and the dollar's strength was evident across currencies.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The 1.2900 area was perceived as temporary support.

The upside is around 1.2950, and the market is likely to sell back to the upside in the short term.

On the downside, the previous day's lows remained a level of interest

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The daily trend continues to test the previous day's lows, and it remains to be seen whether or not the lower whiskers will remain

The 4-hour time frame continues to explore the lower boundary of the range and there is no clear sign of a bottoming out

In the medium term, the 1.2800 level is considered as the next important support zone

impression

Selling was the dominant factor throughout the day, but there were signs of a bottoming out toward the end of the day.

Markets have been volatile between concerns about the U.K. economy and U.S. interest rate trends.

Future economic indicators and interest rate trends will need to be monitored to find a sense of direction

trade observations

In the short term, there were many occasions when the return sale worked effectively.

However, given the buyback seen in the New York time, there is still a risk of a sell-only approach.

It was a situation that demanded that the trader stick to trading in small increments.

checklist

Check the results of UK economic indicators

Tracking trends in U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index

Watching to see if the support band around 1.2900 is maintained

looking back

After testing the previous day's highs in Tokyo time, the market stalled, and after the European trading session, the market was dominated by selling and closed near the previous day's lows.

summary

With little new material originating from Australia, the overall development continued to be driven by external factors.

The Australian dollar was pushed back toward the end of the day as the U.S. interest rate trend swung the dollar

Finally, the market landed in a lower range and ended the day with limited direction.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time temporarily rose to around 0.6640, testing the previous day's high.

Selling pressure increased and the pair tested the 0.6600 level through European hours.

A temporary buyback was seen in the New York session, but the pair was sold off again toward the end of the session and landed near 0.6580.

Background & Materials

There were no new indicators related to the Australian economy and limited news related to the Chinese economy.

In the U.S., the trend of dollar buying spilled over into the Australian dollar as people became aware of the rise in long-term interest rates.

Overall, market participants were easily swayed by external factors as they searched for clues.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around 0.6640 was considered as recent upside resistance.

Lower support has formed around 0.6580 and the short-term range is becoming clearer

Intraday highs and lows were limited to about 60 pips, and volatility remained low

Technical Memo (mid-term)

On the daily basis, the previous day's upper shadow and today's lower shadow appear in contrast, with a series of candlesticks lacking a sense of direction

Moving averages continue to trend sideways and lack trend

Conscious of the possibility of continued up/down testing within the wide range of 0.6550-0.6700

impression

Lack of material on the Australian side has focused market attention on U.S. interest rates and external factors.

I have the impression that even if there are some short-term swings up and down, it lacks the ability to break out of the range.

The market is in a strong mood of waiting for the next material, and it is easy to say that the market is likely to continue to hold.

trade observations

While there was limited upside movement, the market remained firm on the downside, requiring caution for both shorts and longs.

Short-term scalping focused on push-buy and return selling in narrow price ranges

Rotational strategies such as aiming for a rebound at the lower end of the range or selling at the upper end of the range were easily recognized.

checklist

Are trends in U.S. long-term interest rates influencing the overall direction of the dollar?

Will small movements in China's economy and resource prices spill over to the Australian dollar?

Which way out of the 0.6550-0.6640 range will be the focus of short-term decisions?