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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | β | August Balance of Payments, Balance of Trade |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | August Industrial Production [month-on-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | August Industrial Production [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| πΊπΈ America | β β | Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Agenda |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| type | Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| stage absence | - | π¨π³ China | - |
Today's Outlook
The previous day, the yen was sold off, and in addition, the dollar was bought, pushing the yen to its weakest level in seven months. Today, too, the yen is likely to follow this trend and remain at a high level, and it will be a phase to see at what level the yen will remain high.
The instability of the French political situation is weighing on the euro, which continues to come under selling pressure. By Tokyo time, the pair had already fallen below the previous day's low, and a test to the downside was evident. It remains to be seen whether the selling trend will continue in European hours and beyond, or whether a buy-back will be seen at lower levels. In the midst of the predominant euro selling trend, it will be interesting to see at what level the price will stop falling.
Selling pressure on the pound continues, and the pair has already tested the previous day's lows to the downside in Tokyo hours. The selling trend is likely to continue into European hours, and the strength of the return may be limited. Overall, the day is likely to be a day of searching for lower prices and at what level the market will pause to the downside.
The Australian dollar continues to face selling pressure and has already tested the previous day's lows in Tokyo hours. Weakness is likely to continue into European trading hours, and any recovery may be limited. The overall trend is to search for the lower end of the range, and it will be interesting to see at what level the price stops moving lower.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
From Tokyo to Europe, the yen was sold off and temporarily rose to 153 yen. However, the late-night release of the Fed's meeting minutes reinforced speculation of a rate cut within the year, and dollar selling gained momentum and the rally lost steam. As a result, after testing the 153-yen level, the pair was sluggish and closed the session with some adjustment.
The dollar was sold off from Tokyo to Europe against the backdrop of the French political unrest and continued to test lower prices. 1.1600 was temporarily breached during the New York session, but the pair subsequently rebounded on buying. The late night release of the Fed's meeting minutes reinforced expectations of a rate cut by the end of the year, and dollar selling continued, with the pair closing lower. While selling was predominant throughout the day, resilience was also confirmed at the lows.
The pair was sold off in the Tokyo session, but temporarily bounced back in the European session, and the pair was able to test the downside again in the New York session, but the late night release of the Fed's meeting summary strengthened expectations of a rate cut before the end of the year, and dollar sales took over, leading the pair to narrow the gap. As a result, the pair closed the session at a lower level despite the selling trend.
The dollar was sold off in the Tokyo session, but it was bought back in the European session, and the downward trend was reversed. As a result, a positive daily trend line with a long frame with long whiskers was formed.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
A combination of yen selling and dollar buying has caused the yen to weaken to its weakest level in seven months.
The price has settled in the upper 150 yen range and continues to remain high.
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 150.50 - 152.00
Lower price is likely to be conscious of support around 150.50 and higher price is likely to be conscious of 152.00
tactics
Basic stance is to prioritize push-buying.
Looking to test the upside while picking up short-term adjustments
trigger
A clear break above 151.50 would be considered an upside move
Adjustment selling may intensify if the price breaks below 150.50
Be careful about the time of the release of U.S. economic indicators
override condition
If the price falls below 150.30 and the downward trend strengthens, the scenario is negated.
Also, beware of a slowdown in momentum in the event of a development that leaves a long upper mustache.
risk event
U.S. CPI and other major economic indicators
Changes in Bank of Japan officials' statements and policy stance
Changes in U.S. dollar supply and demand due to trends in long-term U.S. interest rates
Position Management
Smaller-than-normal entry size and preparation for overheating
Interest gains are made in steps of 20 to 40 pips.
Losses are clearly set below 150.30.
checklist
Is the support at 150.50 holding?
Is there momentum to break through 151.50?
Will US CPI and interest rate trends change the market trend?
Market Summary
Euro selling prevails against a backdrop of French political unrest
Already in Tokyo hours, a clear test to the downside below the previous day's lows.
Assumed range
Around 1.0550 - Assuming a trend around 1.0650
The downside is likely to be around 1.0550, while the upside is likely to be 1.0650 as a resistance zone.
tactics
Basic policy is to sell back to the market.
Priority is given to the flow of selling to capture short-term returns.
trigger
Beware of acceleration to the downside in case of a clear break below 1.0550.
A break above 1.0650 could strengthen the buyback trend
Price movements in the European time zone are likely to determine today's direction
override condition
Continued rise above 1.0670 would negate the sell scenario.
Also, test lower prices but be wary of a rebound if long lower whiskers are left
risk event
New reports on French politics
Eurozone economic indicators (especially inflation-related)
Trends in U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Position Management
Adjust trade size sparingly and be prepared for sudden fluctuations
Interest gains are made in steps of about 20 to 40 pips.
Stop-loss is set at a clear break above 1.0670
checklist
Is the support for 1.0550 maintained?
Will there be a move to break through the upside resistance at 1.0650?
Will French political news after European hours affect the market?
Market Summary
Selling pressure on the pound continues, with a test to the downside off the previous day's low in Tokyo hours.
Sell-off trend is still in mind and return is limited through European hours.
Assumed range
Around 1.2170 - Assuming a move around 1.2300
Support on the downside near 1.2170 and 1.2300 on the upside are likely to be considered as resistance zones.
tactics
Basic stance is to prioritize a return to the market.
Even if there is a short-term pullback, the policy is to wait until selling pressure is confirmed before initiating a move.
trigger
Selling may accelerate if the price clearly falls below 1.2170
Scenario where a break above 1.2300 would strengthen the buyback trend.
European hour index releases are likely to be a factor influencing the direction of the market
override condition
Sell scenario is negated if the rise is sustained above 1.2320
Also, be wary of a rebound if the price tests lower and leaves long lower whiskers
risk event
UK economic indicators (especially PMI and employment related)
Major U.S. indices and long-term interest rate trends
Statements on UK politics and fiscal policy
Position Management
Smaller than usual size, mainly to accommodate sales
Interest gains are made in steps of 20 to 40 pips.
Stop-loss is set above 1.2320 to limit risk.
checklist
Will support for 1.2170 be maintained?
Will there be a move to break through resistance at 1.2300?
Will economic indicators and U.S. interest rate trends change direction in European time?
Market Summary
The Australian dollar remained under selling pressure and tested lower in Tokyo hours, falling below the previous day's low.
Weakness is expected to continue after the European session, and the return is limited.
Overall, the move to the lower end of the range will continue, and the focus will be on finding a bottoming out level
Assumed range
Assumed range around 0.6450-0.6550
Lower price is likely to be considered as support around 0.6450
Upside is considered as resistance at around 0.6550.
tactics
Basic stance is to consider mainly return sales
Short-term buybacks are expected to be limited, with priority given to following the flow.
Build entries with an awareness of the swing within the range.
trigger
Downward pressure is likely to increase at a break below 0.6450
Above 0.6550, a test to the upside will be conscious.
Price movements after European hours and the release of U.S. indices will be volatile factors.
override condition
If the price clearly breaks above 0.6550 and settles at a higher level
If the buyback momentum strengthens in the short term and the sell scenario breaks down
If the lower price is confirmed to be in the form of a rebound
risk event
Release of U.S. economic indicators (especially those related to inflation and employment)
Trends in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices
Geopolitical risks and changes in overall financial market sentiment
Position Management
Keep entry size to about half the normal size.
Focus on small profit margins of 20-30 pips.
Stop-losses are set at the most recent high or the upper end of the range.
checklist
Check for selling acceleration below 0.6450
Watch for a move above 0.6550.
Check trends in U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index as well.
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
From Tokyo to Europe, the yen was sold off and temporarily rose to 153 yen, but was sluggish due to dollar selling following the Fed's meeting summary.
summary
Dollar/Yen Holds Higher, but Shifts in Policy Expectations Lead to a Day of Shaky Direction
The market was conscious of the possibility of a rate cut by the end of the year, while still confirming that the yen remains weak in the background.
Today's Price Movement
The yen continued to sell off from Tokyo to Europe, testing the 153 yen level.
The market was pushed down by profit-taking in the early part of the New York session, but was later supported to the downside by buying back
Dollar selling prevailed after the release of the Fed's meeting minutes, with a strong tone of adjustment toward the close.
Background & Materials
On the Japanese side, there was little speculation of additional monetary policy, and the yen sold off against the backdrop of interest rate differentials.
In the U.S., dollar buying was mixed on the back of rising long-term interest rates and expectations of a rate cut that emerged from the Fed's meeting summary
Political factors and geopolitical risks were limited, with market focus on the monetary policy outlook
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The daily trend remains upward, but the upside is perceived near 153.00
On the hourly timeframe, the upward wave paused and a push was seen to test the confirmation of the push
The 150.80-151.20 area is considered short-term support.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The weekly price has reached a new 7-month high and is still within an uptrend
The 152.50-153.00 area is functioning as an important resistance zone, and price movements after a breakthrough will be watched closely.
In the medium term, the lower 150 yen is a support band, limiting downside risk.
impression
The tug-of-war between interest rate differentials and policy outlook became even clearer, and short-term direction remained difficult to read.
On the other hand, the trend of yen depreciation has not been broken, and the market is prone to sudden fluctuations depending on materials.
trade observations
Following the buyers at the highs was risky, and it was important to carefully identify the pushes.
Selling against the market was a day for position management, as it was necessary to limit the price range for selling against the market.
As a result, the market was testing both the upper and lower sides of the market, and price range management should be prioritized rather than directional thinking.
checklist
Whether or not the resistance zone around 153.00 can be broken above
Can support around 150.80-151.20 be maintained?
Will we continue to pay attention to US interest rate trends and the Fed's change in stance?
looking back
Selling was dominant from Tokyo to Europe, and the pair rebounded to test 1.1600 in New York, and closed lower due to dollar selling after the Fed meeting summary.
summary
French political unrest continued to weigh on the euro, which continued to seek lower prices
On the other hand, buyback demand was also seen at the lows, confirming a certain level of resilience.
Overall, the day was dominated by selling, but it was not a one-way decline and included some adjustments.
Today's Price Movement
Selling continued from Tokyo to Europe, with a clear downward trend
The pair briefly dipped below the 1.1600 area early in the New York session, but then rebounded from the downside
The dollar turned to a selling trend toward the end of the day, and closed the day on a downward trend.
Background & Materials
Political unrest in France remained a risk factor for the market
U.S. interest rate trends and Fed meeting minutes encouraged dollar selling and supported the eurodollar
Economic indicators in the European region lacked major surprises, and overall, political factors and U.S. monetary policy were the main factors.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 1.1600 area was recognized as a downside guideline, and a rebound came in after the interruption.
In the short term, the price movement was unstable, with a return interspersed with a test of the downside.
Scattered rebounds with lower whiskers were seen on the 5- and 15-minute time frames, despite the predominance of selling
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily trend continues to seek lower prices, and the return phase remains limited
Upside resistance is perceived toward the 1.1700 level, which could easily become a starting point for a return to the market.
Weekly price remains in the recent low range, and the phase of directional assessment is still underway
impression
Although the day was dominated by selling, the resilience of the market at the lows could not be ignored
Market sentiment is still tilted toward selling the euro, but the market remains easily swayed by dollar materials.
Caution is felt on short-term swings ahead of event risk
trade observations
The focus was on the attack and defense of the 1.1600 area, and the rebound after the interruption was a reminder of the importance of risk management
Short-term trades were established to both track lower prices and target a rebound, but the environment was not conducive to carryover
Strong impression of position liquidation due to dollar selling toward the close
checklist
Check for resistance and resilience in the 1.1600 area
Reassessing the Impact of the Fed Minutes on Dollar Materials
Examining the Continued Impact of European Political Risks on Euro Selling
looking back
Selling was led by the Tokyo time, and although there was a temporary buy-back in Europe, the market tested the bottom again in the New York time and closed lower due to dollar selling following the Fed's meeting summary
summary
Overall, the day was dominated by pound selling.
However, the low point was not a full-fledged decline, as adjustments were made by dollar sellers, and the downside was confirmed to have narrowed by the end of the session.
Pound weakness remains, but resilience was also seen at milestones
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time was marked by selling ahead and testing the downward direction.
Temporary buy-backs during European hours led to a short-lived downside
The dollar's decline was limited by dollar sales in response to the meeting minutes, although it tested the downward direction again toward the New York time.
Background & Materials
New material from the U.K. was scarce, and no single support factor for the pound was seen.
In the U.S., the release of the Fed's meeting minutes raised expectations of a rate cut by the end of the year, triggering dollar selling.
The overall market was susceptible to dollar-driven price movements.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 1.1600 area was recognized as a lower price milestone
Despite continued short-term selling dominance, a rebound in the New York time saw a move to the lows
The return phase was limited and the upside remained heavy.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Returns continue to be restrained in a declining trend on a daily basis
The area around 1.1700 is likely to be considered as a restraining point for the return
Sell bias in the pound is maintained in the medium term, and the direction is likely to depend on the dollar
impression
Pound remains weak and heavily influenced by the dollar amid material difficulties
Agenda provided short-term support, but not enough to change the underlying trend
Continued caution to the downside remains.
trade observations
Even in a predominantly selling trend, a rebound would enter at the lows, so follow-up entries needed to be made with caution.
A short-term rebound was also a possibility if the downside in the 1.1600 area could be confirmed.
Overall, a sell-back stance prevailed, but management also needed to take into account a rebound triggered by the prospect of a rate cut.
checklist
Find out how the Fed's meeting minutes affected the dollar sell-off on the prospect of a rate cut
Reviewing whether the downside support around 1.1600 has been effective.
Reflect on both the point of return and the short-term rebound and use them in your next strategy
looking back
In the Tokyo time, selling was ahead, but in the European time, buyers started to buy back, and the lower price was recovered. In the New York time, dollar selling prevailed and a positive line with a frame was formed due to the Fed meeting summary.
summary
A mix of selling and buying was seen from Tokyo to European hours
NY session lacked notable movement, and the flow changed after the late night Fed meeting summary
Finally, it closed with a positive line, leaving a lower and upper mustache, making it a day lacking in direction.
Today's Price Movement
Selling pressure in the first half of the day, but rebounded in the European hour, showing resilience.
Stalemate prevailed in New York, with a wait-and-see mood prevailing until the release of the Fed meeting summary
After the announcement, dollar sales prevailed and the Australian dollar recovered.
Background & Materials
Markets closely watched the Fed's monetary policy outlook and reacted sensitively to the minutes
Increased speculation of a rate cut by the end of the year prompted dollar sales.
Australian factors were scarce, and the overall situation was driven by U.S. factors.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The daily chart is a positive coma with long whiskers, making it difficult to see the short-term direction of the market
Lower prices were supported near the previous day's lows, but upside was also limited.
Short term, the form confirms a rebound from the lower end of the range.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Medium-term trend is still within a range and no clear trend has been formed
Continued to attack and defend around the moving average line and search for direction.
A situation where both downside support and upside resistance are easily recognized
impression
The overall trend was led by U.S. monetary policy, and the Australian dollar itself had little unique material.
Price movements are limited, and it remains difficult to have a sense of direction.
Participants were often happy or sad at the dollar-side news.
trade observations
There were certain opportunities for short-term trading, interspersed with buybacks from the sell-off.
However, the NY hour was not very active, and unreasonable entry was risky.
The day was dominated by position adjustments for the event.
checklist
Checking market reaction to the Fed's policy outlook
Clear understanding of the lower and upper range levels
Check for the existence and impact of Australian economic indicators
FX Diary