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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πͺπΊ Europe | β β | European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Meeting Minutes |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| type | Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | πΊπΈ America | Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, remarks |
Today's Outlook
On the previous day, the yen continued to sell off throughout the Tokyo and European hours, and temporarily tested the 153 yen level. However, the dollar's selling trend became stronger during the New York hours as the Fed's meeting summary strengthened expectations of an interest rate cut, and the upward trend narrowed. However, the yen selling trend itself did not collapse significantly, and it is easy to be aware of the offensive and defense in the high yen area. Today, we will see whether the pair will test the 153-yen level again or consolidate around the 152-yen level, and confirm the initial trend.
On the previous day, the euro was sold predominantly from Tokyo to Europe against the backdrop of instability in the French political situation, and temporarily fell below 1.1600 during the New York session. The pair then narrowed to 1.1600 with a lower whisker due to dollar selling on the U.S. interest rate trend. Today, the pair will again be conscious of the 1.1600 level, and it will be interesting to see whether a break below the level will be tested or whether a rebound will be confirmed. Overall, it will be a day to assess the firmness of the downside while selling pressure remains.
On the previous day, selling was seen in the Tokyo session, and a test to the downside was seen in the European session, but in the New York session, the dollar was sold off in response to the Fed's meeting summary, which helped to narrow the gap. Today, while the selling pressure on the pound will still be felt, the market will be checking for a buyback at lower prices.
On the previous day, selling was ahead in Tokyo hours and weakening was seen in Europe, but by New York hours, a rebound at lower prices prevailed, partly due to dollar selling following the Fed's meeting summary. As a result, a positive daily trend line with a long lower hinge was formed, which made us aware of the existence of a buyback at the lows. Today, attention will be focused on whether the level around 0.6500 can be maintained or whether the price will test the downside again.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
In the European session, the pair was bid up to the previous day's high, but was pushed back to the upside at the level above 153 yen, but in New York, the dollar came under renewed buying pressure on the back of the U.S. interest rate trend and made a temporary upward test, but failed to clearly break through the milestone. Nevertheless, the price remained in a high price range and remained firm at the close.
The euro was sold off against the backdrop of French political unrest in the European hours, and a test to the downside was accelerated; by the New York hours, the dollar was bid higher in response to the U.S. interest rate trend, widening the decline and slightly renewing the targeted selling level, closing at a lower level.
The pair was directionless during the Tokyo session, but pound selling prevailed during the European session, testing the downside, and the pair fell all the way to the New York session as dollar buying accelerated against the backdrop of the U.S. interest rate trend. As a result, the price slightly renewed the line that had been the target of the sell-off, and closed in the low range at the end of the day.
The pair was in a buying trend during the Tokyo session, and a temporary test of the upside was seen, but during the European session, the pair was pushed down by dollar buying and downward pressure strengthened. However, some buyers were buying on the downside, and the price tested the upside again during the New York session. However, the dollar subsequently began to buy against the backdrop of the U.S. interest rate trend, and the price hit the previous day's low. The price remained in the low range toward the end of the session.
Market Information
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| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
β Lower limit of range
There is no line at the upper limit, so round numbers, etc., are likely to be considered.
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day, the yen continued to sell off, and at one point tested 153 yen, but during the New York session, the Fed's meeting summary strengthened speculation of a rate cut before the end of the year, and the dollar was sold off.
Although the yen's advance was eventually narrowed, it remained at a high level and the yen's selling trend has not been broken significantly.
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 152.00 - 153.50
Downward focus is on support at the 152-yen level, while upward focus is on a move to test the 153-yen level
tactics
In the midst of a continued offensive and defense in the high price range, it is easy to be conscious of a stance of mainly buying at the push point.
A forward stance that confirms the underlying trend is more effective than a reverse stance that takes advantage of short-term adjustment phases
trigger
A clear break above 153.00 could be a confirmation of stronger buying pressure
Conversely, a break below 152.00 would be watched as a sign of profit-taking and wider adjustment.
Note the time of day when U.S. interest rate trends and the results of U.S. economic indicators are likely to give a sense of direction.
override condition
If the downside accelerates below 151.80, the push-back scenario is likely to be negated
On the other hand, if the momentum does not continue above 153.50, the upward movement may slow down
risk event
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Trends in U.S. Treasury yields
Risk of statements by Japanese authorities regarding foreign exchange intervention
Position Management
Position size will be kept lower than usual and adjusted according to the price movement between 152.00 and 153.00.
Take profits in 20 to 30 pips at frequent intervals.
Stop-losses are set flexibly when the market falls below 152.00 or when volatility expands rapidly
checklist
See if support around 152.00 works
Assessing whether or not 153.00 can be breached and whether or not it can be sustained
Check for strength or weakness in buying or selling of the dollar due to U.S. economic indicators and interest rate changes
Market Summary
The euro was sold off against the backdrop of French political unrest, temporarily falling below 1.1600 in New York.
The market then narrowed due to dollar selling in response to the U.S. interest rate trend, and closed with a lower whisker.
Overall, selling pressure remains, but resilience at the lows was also confirmed
Assumed range
Assuming a move around the 1.1570-1.1700 area.
Downside is focused on persistence below 1.1600
Upward direction confirms strength of return around 1.1700
tactics
Short term, while keeping the return sale as the basic policy, beware of buying back in the low price range
Conscious of range rotation if lack of direction
Flexibility to respond sensitively to initial price movements is required.
trigger
A clear move below 1.1600 would likely increase selling pressure.
A move above 1.1700 would increase the possibility of a short-term return test.
Fluctuations may intensify with the start of European hours and the release of U.S. economic indicators
override condition
A sustained rise above 1.1720 would negate the downside scenario.
If 1.1600 can be maintained at the daily close, the sell-dominant scenario will weaken.
Switch to a range strategy once price movements are limited due to the absence of materials
risk event
Changes in monetary policy stance due to statements by Fed officials
Headlines related to European politics with a focus on France
U.S. initial unemployment insurance applications and other economic indicators released
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 1.1600 area is considered as short-term downside support
The area around 1.1650 is a good indicator for a return to the market
Short-term chart confirms a footprint with a lower whisker
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Still on a downward trend on a daily basis
The area around 1.1700 is likely to be considered as an upper resistance zone for the return
Focus is on whether the downtrend will bounce back to the downside
impression
It is worth noting that the resilience of the market after breaking the milestone was demonstrated despite the predominance of selling.
Possibility of continued ups and downs rather than one-way flow
The market is also waiting for materials, and excessive position taking is risky.
trade observations
In the short term, the basic shape is to follow a move to test below 1.1600 by selling.
On the other hand, if there are signs of a rebound at the lows, aiming for a small buyback is also effective
Overall, it is advisable to keep positions light and limit risk.
checklist
Watch for an attack at the 1.1600 mark.
To check news headlines related to European politics.
Be prepared for dollar movement before and after the release of U.S. economic indicators
Market Summary
The previous day, pound selling prevailed from Tokyo to Europe and continued to test the downside.
In the New York hour, dollar sales in response to the Fed meeting minutes reduced the decline and lifted the price at the low end of the range
Overall, the firmness of the lower price was recognized even though the selling trend remained.
Assumed range
Assuming a move around the 1.2170-1.2270 area.
Support is seen around 1.2200, while the 1.2250-1.2270 area is a return target.
tactics
Basic strategy is to sell back to the market.
However, if the low fails, be prepared for a short-term buyback.
trigger
Downward momentum is likely to strengthen below 1.2200
A break above 1.2270 could clarify the return trend.
Price movements in European hours will be key to today's direction
override condition
A clear close above 1.2300 would negate the return strategy.
If the strong rebound continues, we will take a fresh look at the low scenario.
risk event
Fluctuations in the pound due to the release of UK economic indicators
Trends in U.S. interest rates and statements by key figures
Impact of geopolitical risks and European political instability
Position Management
Keep new positions small and increase them after confirming the direction
The profit margin is chopped to 20 to 30 pips.
Limit risk by placing stop-losses outside of recent highs and lows
checklist
Watch for an attack at 1.2200.
Check price movements in European hours and U.S. interest rate trends
Know in advance the schedule of indicators and key figures' statements.
Market Summary
The previous day's sell-off was preceded by a dollar sell-off in the New York hours following the Fed meeting summary, which led to an awareness of a rebound at the lower end of the market
On the daily basis, a positive coma line with a long lower whisker was formed, confirming the presence of a buyback at the lows.
Assumed range
Price movement assumed around 0.6470-0.6560
Buyback pressure is likely at the lower limit, while return sales are likely at the upper limit
tactics
Basic stance is to keep range rotation in mind
In the short term, the tactic of buying at the lower end of the range while giving priority to profit-taking on the return is effective.
trigger
Downward test may accelerate if the price falls clearly below 0.6500
A break above 0.6560 would confirm a short-term return phase
Focus on U.S. index releases and resource price trends in Asian time
override condition
A clear break above 0.6600 would likely negate the downside scenario.
Even if there is a downside test, as long as the price does not break below 0.6450, the view of continued extreme downside is restrained
risk event
Statements by Fed officials and U.S. economic indicators
China's economic data and resource price fluctuations
Sudden market volatility due to geopolitical risks
Position Management
Smaller entry size to accommodate volatility
Interest rate is set around 0.6530-0.6550
Risk management based on a stop loss below 0.6450
checklist
To check the response around 0.6500.
Determine the impact of resource prices and China-related indicators.
Keep an eye on U.S. interest rate trends and Fed-related news
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
The previous day's high was renewed in the European hour, but was pushed back above 153 yen, and in the New York hour, buying pressure increased again, but was unable to break through, and the highs were maintained and closed.
summary
While the upward trend continued, the 153-yen mark was still in the foreground, and the failure to break through it was a distinctive feature of today's session.
Overall, the market remained in a high price range, but was cautious on the upside
While the trend of buying the dollar remained, the yen did not sell off all the way, but rather, the movement was accompanied by adjustments.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time lacked a sense of direction as the market continued to hover in the upper 152-yen range.
Buying intensified in European hours, reaching the previous day's high, but was pushed back at 153 yen
Buying again during the New York hour on the back of rising U.S. interest rates, and a test to the upside failed to break through.
Background & Materials
Rising U.S. long-term interest rates supported dollar buying and led to buying back in New York
On the other hand, the Fed's meeting minutes continue to raise expectations of a rate cut, making it difficult to aggressively buy the dollar.
Markets are oscillating between the direction of U.S. monetary policy and caution about the level of yen weakness
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 152.80 area is being considered as a short-term push level
Focus is on whether the resistance zone around 153.20 can be clearly broken through
The shape of the daily price remains in a high range with an upper whisker
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Uptrend from the 150-yen level remains intact
Above 153.50, there could be more room to the upside, but the upside is currently too heavy.
On the other hand, if the price falls below 152 yen, adjustment may intensify
impression
Although the upward trend continues, there are indications of a lack of materials to break through the milestone.
Markets continue to react strongly to U.S. interest rates and the Fed's policy stance, and remain susceptible to external factors
While the general framework of the trend is upward, short-term adjustment risks need to be kept in mind
trade observations
Strategy to pick up pushes is effective, but profit-taking moves should also be considered near milestones
Avoid large positions and enter and exit multiple times to be safe
Reversing at high prices requires careful judgment.
checklist
Check to see if the underlying support works around 152.80
Watch for a break through the 153.20-153.50 resistance zone
Tracking U.S. interest rate trends and the impact of Fed-related comments on the dollar-yen
looking back
Euro selling strengthened in the European hour and dollar buying accelerated in the New York hour, slightly renewing the target level for selling
summary
French political uncertainty weighed on the euro, leading to declines from European hours onward
In New York time, the dollar was bought against the backdrop of the U.S. interest rate trend, temporarily accelerating the decline.
Finally, after a round of selling, the market narrowed slightly to the downside and pulled back to a lower level, albeit at a lower price.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo session lacked a sense of direction, hovering around 1.1600.
Euro selling prevailed in European hours, with the pair falling below 1.1600 at times
The dollar was bought in the New York time, recording a decline that renewed the targeted level of the sell-off
Background & Materials
Continued political unrest in France weighed on the euro
U.S. interest rate trends supported dollar buying and were a factor in the decline in New York
The Fed's meeting minutes reinforced expectations of a rate cut, and the dollar was sold off at the end of the day to the downside
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Tested below 1.1600, but the downside was limited.
Toward the end of the day, a lower mustache formed, leaving room for a short-term rebound.
The situation is becoming more conscious of holding at recent lows
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Selling trend continues in the medium term, but the firmness in the 1.1600 area is also confirmed
The daily shape was accompanied by a lower whisker, indicating a certain downward resilience
Trends in European political risks will be important to determine the medium-term direction of the market.
impression
Selling momentum continued, but did not move far below the milestone.
Mixed political risks and speculation on U.S. monetary policy make it difficult to see the direction of price movements
Overall, the market is weakening, but there is still room for a short-term rebound, which is a balanced development.
trade observations
The market continued to test the downside, but a rebound was easy to come in at around 1.1600.
While the return was limited, it was not a sell-only trend, and adjustments at the pushpoint were also confirmed.
It's easy to divide up strategies based on how you perceive price movements at the lows.
checklist
Whether or not the level below 1.1600 will be clearly exited
The strength of the impact of the French political unrest on the market
Directionality of the dollar due to changes in the Fed rate cut outlook
looking back
Selling of the pound strengthened in the European hour and fell quickly in the New York hour due to accelerated dollar buying
summary
Tokyo time continued to lack a sense of direction.
Selling became more prevalent after European hours, and the market began to test the downside.
Dollar buying accelerated and the decline was extended through the New York time.
Today's Price Movement
Selling pressure increased in European hours, testing the milestone.
In New York, dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of U.S. interest rate trends.
Sold slightly above the target line and closed at the low
Background & Materials
No significant economic indicators were announced from the U.K. side, making it difficult to find material for the event.
In the U.S., interest rate cut speculation increased after the release of the Fed's meeting minutes
As a result, the dollar-driven market development was conspicuous.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 1.2600 area was recognized as temporary support.
The upside was restrained around 1.2700, and the return to the market worked
Short-term downward trend continued.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Weak candlestick formed on a daily basis with lower whiskers
Unless a clear break above 1.2800 is achieved, the upside is likely to be conscious.
The downtrend trend is maintained in the medium term
impression
Pound remains weak on return, led by the dollar
Limited resilience at the lows, confirming a supply-demand bias
Markets were sensitive to the dollar factor despite material difficulties
trade observations
The predominant trend was to respond to the short-term return phase with selling.
After the renewal of the milestone line, there were scattered sellers looking to expand the price range.
Toward the end of the day, there was a sense that prices were consolidating at the lows.
checklist
Check if support is maintained around 1.2600
Determine the strength of upside resistance at the 1.2700 level
Watch for changes in U.S. interest rate trends and the U.S. dollar index
looking back
Although the buyers were in the lead during the Tokyo time, they were pushed back during the European time, and even though they temporarily tested the top during the New York time, the price finally hit the low of the previous day and closed at the low range.
summary
The Australian dollar was temporarily bought back, but the direction of the dollar was perceived to be downward due to increased pressure to buy the dollar.
As a result, highs were limited and the day was marked by lower prices
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time saw a move to test around 0.6500.
Selling pressure intensified in European hours, with a conscious search for lower prices.
A temporary rebound was interspersed with a brief rebound in the New York hours, but eventually the trend strengthened to the downside
Background & Materials
There were no significant economic indicators on the Australian side, and materials were limited.
The main reason for the decline was the predominant buying of the dollar against the backdrop of rising U.S. long-term interest rates
Speculation ahead of the Fed minutes also affected the market.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Around 0.6500 is being considered as a guide to the upside.
On the downside, the 0.6450 area provided temporary support.
Clear trend of predominant return selling in the short term
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Although accompanied by a lower daily mustache, the overall price remains at the low end of the range
Unless a clear recovery to 0.6550 is possible, it is easy to be aware that the return will be limited.
Medium-term downside target is likely to be around 0.6400
impression
The Australian dollar had a buying phase, but was pushed back into a trend led by U.S. interest rate trends
Market participants were more inclined to sell back, and the impression was that movement was limited in the absence of clear-cut materials.
The Australian dollar lacked strength on its own and was easily swayed by dollar-driven developments.
trade observations
In the short term, it was difficult to push for a rebound, and selling on the return was more advantageous.
Buying is unlikely to be aggressive in a situation where the price cannot clearly exceed 0.6500
Selling positions continued to be the predominant trend on the day as prices remained low toward the end of the day.
checklist
Continue to monitor U.S. interest rate trends
Be aware of upside resistance around 0.6500
Keep an eye on the support zone around 0.6450-0.6400
FX Diary