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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ America | β | October University of Michigan Consumer Attitude Index, Preliminary |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
News
Japan: Komeito leaves the coalition government.
Today's Outlook
Although the previous day saw multiple push-backs at the high 153-yen line, the buying momentum had not yet clearly weakened. With the market firming up, the possibility of another test of the upward direction is easily recognized. However, rebalancing flows are likely to be a factor over the weekend, and care must be taken not to be swayed by sudden price movements.
On the previous day, euro selling prevailed against the backdrop of French political instability and U.S. interest rate trends, and the pair fell slightly below the line that had been set as the selling target. Thereafter, a temporary buy-back was seen, but the return was limited and the price continued to hover in the lower range. Today, the market is likely to continue to test the downside, but we are also wary of rebalancing flows due to weekend factors.
The previous day, the pound was predominantly sold from the European hours and continued to test the downside as dollar buying also overlapped into the New York hours. As a result, the pair slightly renewed the line that had been targeted for selling and held at the lows. Today, the market is likely to continue to test the downside, but the weekend factor may add to rebalancing flows, and irregular price movements should be watched carefully.
The previous day was a day of unstable price action with a mix of selling and buying, but the upward pressure was confirmed to form a decline. Today, too, we need to be alert for a test of lower prices, and in addition, we need to pay attention to the impact of the rebalancing peculiar to the weekend.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
In New York, President Trump's comments triggered additional tariffs on Chinese products, which accelerated the dollar sell-off and the pair closed sharply lower. Overall, the day was marked by uncertainty on both political and trade fronts.
The euro was affected by rebalancing due to weekend factors, and the market was in an adjustment phase from the European time to the beginning of the New York time, lacking a sense of direction. In response, the euro temporarily strengthened its rebound, recovering the 1.16 level and closing in a high zone.
In the European session, the trend from the previous day continued to test the downside. The dollar was sold off sharply in the New York session due to President Trump's tariffs on China, and the dollar was pulled back sharply.
The AUD was down sharply from 0.6500 to close below 0.6500.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
β Lower limit of range
There is no line at the upper limit, so round numbers, etc., are likely to be considered.
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
USDJPY continues to be restrained at the 153-yen level, but buying momentum has not waned and the market is aware of the firmness of the market.
The market attempted to break to new highs but was pushed back, and upward breakthrough and return selling pressure are at odds with each other.
Assumed range
152.20-153.50 area
Assuming a range of higher prices, but the weekend rebalancing factors may widen the range of fluctuation
tactics
Basically, be aware of push-buying, but also consider range rotation in the short term
Flexibility to take small increments of gains is desirable in anticipation of ups and downs due to sudden flows.
trigger
Short-term buying interest is likely to strengthen with a break above 153.30
A break below 152.20 could intensify adjustment and accelerate temporary selling pressure
Focus on European time flow as a weekend factor.
override condition
In the event of a firm step into the Β₯151 level, the push-back scenario is nullified
Directional review is also needed if selling pressure at the highs increases during the New York hour
risk event
U.S. economic indicators (employment-related and inflation-related)
Changes in monetary policy stance due to statements by key figures
Weekend position adjustment flow
Position Management
Enter with smaller lots than usual to prepare for the risk of weekend-specific volatility.
Gains are made in small increments of about 20 to 30 pips.
Losses are managed based on milestones such as below 152.00
checklist
Confirmation of whether or not the 153 yen level will be breached
Assumes flow from weekend rebalancing
Always aware of US interest rate trends in NY time
Market Summary
On the previous day, euro selling prevailed against the backdrop of French political uncertainty and U.S. interest rate trends, and the euro fell slightly below the line that had been set as the selling target.
Thereafter, there was a temporary buying back, but the return was limited and the market remained in a lower range.
Conscious of another downside test today, but with a need to pay attention to flows due to rebalancing over the weekend.
Assumed range
The lower limit is expected to be around 1.1520 and the upper limit around 1.1620.
1.1600 is easily recognized as a psychological milestone and is likely to become a focal point for attack and defense
On the downside, an important juncture is whether the 1.1550 break will be tested.
tactics
The basic policy is to focus on selling on the return.
In phases of short-term buybacks, be cautious and watch for reactions in the resistance zone
Do not follow a sudden rebound, but check to see if the return is weak
trigger
Downside is likely to be one trigger below 1.1550
Upward movement above 1.1620 will be considered a signal for a rebound if the price continues to move above 1.1620.
Fluctuations tend to be concentrated in the flows at the beginning of the European and early New York hours, so close monitoring is required.
override condition
A clear break above 1.1650 could make it harder for a return strategy to work
Steady above 1.1620 on a closing basis suggests invalidation of the downside test scenario
Sudden news flow negates the assumption of a short-term selling advantage in a sharp rise in the market.
risk event
In addition to the release of U.S. economic indicators, remarks by Fed officials will be closely watched
European political news continues to be a factor for selling the euro
Rebalancing flows due to weekend factors may cause sudden fluctuations
Position Management
Keep position sizes modest and consider the uncertainty of weekend factors
Set profit targets in small increments on the downside and avoid excessive pulling.
Losses should be taken earlier with a clear break above 1.1650 or other clear upside.
checklist
Check for a 1.1550 break
Observe the strength of the attack and defense around 1.1600
Be wary of sudden flows due to weekend rebalancing
Market Summary
Selling of the pound has been predominant, and the situation is continuing to seek lower prices due to a combination of buying of the dollar.
The day before, the line that was considered a sell target was slightly renewed and closed in a holding pattern at the low end of the range
Assumed range
Assuming a move around the 1.2550-1.2700 area.
The downside is likely to be below 1.2550, while the upside is likely to see a restrained return before 1.2700.
tactics
Based on the assumption of a predominantly selling trend, a tactic centered on a return sale will be effective.
However, buybacks are likely to occur in the lower price range, and a cautious response is required to follow the lows.
trigger
A clear break below 1.2550 would increase the possibility of accelerated selling.
Conversely, if the price exceeds 1.2700, a return phase will be easily recognized.
override condition
A clear break above 1.2700 and a negation of the low would invalidate the downside scenario
Adjustment of assumptions is necessary in case of rapid dollar selling pressure.
risk event
Irregular price movements due to weekend position adjustments and rebalancing flows
Accelerated buying and selling of the U.S. dollar due to U.S. interest rate-related statements and index releases
Possible sudden impact of UK economic indicators and political reports
Position Management
New entries are more modest in size than usual
Gains will be made in stages with the lower price around 1.2550.
Stop-losses are placed above 1.2700 to clearly control risk.
checklist
Check for a clear break below 1.2550
Check to see if any sudden flows due to rebalancing have entered the system.
Continuously check the impact of US interest rate trends and the results of UK indices.
Market Summary
The previous day saw unstable price movements with a mix of selling and buying, and eventually the market confirmed the heaviness of the upside and tilted toward the downside.
AUD continues to move lower against the dollar with price movement indicating a weak return against the dollar
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 0.6460-0.6540
While a test of the downside is likely, a return to the mid 0.6500s is the upside target in a rebound phase.
tactics
Basic policy is to sell on the upside.
Tactics based on overall dollar buying pressure are effective, while considering buying back in the lower range
trigger
A clear break below 0.6460 could accelerate the downward movement
If the pair breaks above 0.6540, buybacks will prevail in the short term, with a view to around 0.6570.
override condition
A clear break above 0.6550 and a positive daily trend is established would negate the downside scenario
Selling tactics need to be revised even when a strong rebound comes in after a new low.
risk event
Dollar fluctuations due to the release of U.S. economic indicators (CPI and employment-related data)
Chinese economic announcements and resource market fluctuations affect the Australian dollar
Weekend rebalancing for sudden flow
Position Management
Entry size is kept at 50-70% of normal to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations
It is appropriate to set a profit target around 0.6470 and a loss target above 0.6550.
Limit positions to short term and liquidate them as soon as the event passes.
checklist
Confirmation of the upper weight with 0.6500 as the axis.
Determine if the decline accelerates starting from below 0.6460
Beware of sudden flows due to weekend rebalancing
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
Yen buying prevailed in European hours, and dollar selling accelerated in New York hours, resulting in a sharp decline
summary
Reports of Komei's withdrawal from the coalition and US tariffs on China coincided with risk-averse yen buying
The dollar was soft, with the yen temporarily falling below 153 yen
Markets were sensitive to political factors and risk event-driven movements were evident
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time was characterized by small movements and lacked a sense of direction
Yen buying strengthened in European hours due to reports of coalition breakup, temporarily testing the downside
Dollar selling accelerated in the New York time, with President Trump's comments on China, and the dollar was down
Background & Materials
In addition to political uncertainty in Japan, comments over U.S. trade policy cooled market sentiment.
Developments led by geopolitical and political risks rather than U.S. interest rate trends
Position adjustments ahead of the weekend also increased dollar selling pressure.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
A break below support near 153.00 triggered stop selling.
On the return, the area around 152.80-153.00 is likely to be considered as resistance.
In the short term, the attack continues at the lower end of the range with increased volatility
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Temporary adjustment phase in an uptrend on a daily basis
Focus is on whether the 20-day moving average (lower 152 yen range) can be maintained
A break below 152.00 would also raise awareness of the possibility of a medium-term momentum shift.
impression
The ground continues to be hypersensitive to policy-related news.
A phase that is more influenced by short-term risk flows than by fundamentals
We will be watching to see if the impact of the statements and press coverage calms down somewhat over the next week or so.
trade observations
Many sudden changes due to news headlines required careful handling.
The trend was to sell the return rather than chase the upside.
A day when small settlements with an emphasis on risk rewards are effective
checklist
Are you aware of the risk of temporary yen buying due to reports related to the political situation?
Are you checking the impact of U.S. political factors such as tariff statements against China?
Is risk management in place for weekend position adjustment flows?
looking back
After rebalancing adjustments, the euro rebounded and closed higher after U.S. comments
summary
Flow-driven market continued to lack direction ahead of the weekend
Dollar selling prevailed in the second half of the New York session, triggered by President Trump's remarks on tariffs against China.
The euro recovered to the 1.16 level, showing a short-term lull to the downside
Today's Price Movement
European hours focused on adjustment against the backdrop of weekend rebalancing
The price remained in a narrow range of 1.1550-1.1580 until early New York
Dollar sales accelerated in the second half of the New York session, temporarily rising to around 1.1620.
Background & Materials
President Trump's suggestion of tougher tariffs against China weighed on market sentiment
Risk-off trend temporarily turning into dollar sell-off
Lack of new economic indicator clues on the European side, led by U.S. factors
Technical Memo (Short-term)
1.1550 is considered as support and the downside remains limited
1.1620-1.1650 is an upper resistance zone that cannot be broken out of
5-day moving average (around 1.1590) is the immediate turning point
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Return phase in a declining trend on a daily basis
Focus is on whether the 20-day line (around 1.1670) can be broken above.
Medium-term downside retest risk resurfaces if the price falls below 1.1500.
impression
Material-driven movements are evident, and fundamentals seem less consistent
Short-term volatility is likely to increase due to political and trade statements
U.S. CPI and other indicators will likely be a factor in determining direction from next week onward
trade observations
Despite the lack of direction, there was a lot of price movement in response to the news.
Impression that short-term pushback against 1.1550 was effective.
It was reasonable to avoid unreasonable entries in the thin market due to the weekend factor.
checklist
Are you aware of dollar fluctuations due to U.S. trade-related statements?
Did you anticipate temporary price movements due to weekend flows and rebalancing?
Are you aware of position adjustments ahead of next week's U.S. CPI release?
looking back
After testing lower prices in Europe, the dollar turned to sell off in New York and rebounded to close the session.
summary
Selling continued the previous day's trend in European hours
In New York, the pound rebounded in response to President Trump's comments, as dollar selling prevailed
The market closed at the end of the day, recovering from the lows, due to a series of adjustment moves in anticipation of the weekend.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time is slightly moving in a range around 1.2520-1.2540
Selling intensified in the early European session, with the price temporarily falling below 1.2500.
In New York, the tariff remarks spurred dollar selling and the pair closed up to around 1.2570.
Background & Materials
Selling of the pound continued in European hours as concerns over the UK's economic slowdown weighed on the market
President Trump's comments on tougher tariffs on Chinese products caused the dollar to weaken across the board.
Flows associated with the weekend rebalancing also made the market unstable in some aspects.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
1.2500 serves as temporary support
1.2570-1.2580 is the upper limit of return, and the market appears to be in a range formation in the short term.
Hovering around the 5-day moving average (around 1.2560)
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Signs of a lull in the downward trend on a daily basis
The medium-term focus is on whether the 20-day line (around 1.2650) can be broken above.
If the price falls below 1.2450, the possibility of another downside move strengthens.
impression
Overall, the development is more influenced by external factors than by the pound alone
Position adjustments were noticeable due to U.S. statements and weekend factors.
Impression of limited price range but maintained volatility
trade observations
Short-term buying on the back of 1.2500 worked, but return is limited
A day of many news-driven movements and difficult technical decisions
Based on the weekend factors, it was the right phase to avoid building unreasonable positions.
checklist
Are you aware of the impact of the U.S. administration's statements and tariff policies toward China?
Did you recognize 1.2500 as short-term support?
Do you anticipate the risk of price movement after rebalancing towards the end of the week?
looking back
Trump's remarks triggered risk aversion and selling of the Australian dollar
summary
Tokyo and European hours remained directionless due to the weekend rebalancing
Risk-off mood prevailed over the New York hour due to President Trump's tariff suggestions against China.
The Australian dollar fell under dollar buying pressure and remained at a low level at the end of the day
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time moves slightly around 0.6520-0.6540
European hours were slightly more dollar-driven, falling to around 0.6500
In New York, the Australian dollar was sold off sharply in response to the tariff comments, temporarily falling to around 0.6470.
Returns were slow toward the close, closing at the 0.6480 level.
Background & Materials
Adjustment flows due to rebalancing ahead of the weekend dominate the market
President Trump's Suggestion of Tariffs on Chinese Products Increases Risk Aversion
The combination of rising U.S. interest rates and the dollar's strength pressure prevailed.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
A break below 0.6500 broke short-term support.
0.6530 to 0.6540 is considered as a return guideline.
RSI approaching short-term oversold level, room for adjustment
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The downtrend is continuing on a daily basis
Return limited unless a clear break above 0.6550
On a weekly basis, the 0.6450 area is considered as the next lower price point
impression
A day of news-driven reactions amid reduced liquidity due to weekend factors
Market reaction to the tariff remarks against China was quick, reflecting the risk aversion sensitive ground.
Market may remain sensitive to political and trade-related statements in the coming week and beyond
trade observations
Selling below 0.6500 worked, but caution was called for on the downside
Immediate response to event headlines will be key for short-term traders
Reversal under rising volatility is risky and requires clear confirmation of a turnaround
checklist
Did you recognize the 0.6500 break as a short-term support break?
Did you anticipate the risk of weekend-specific price movements due to rebalancing?
Did you factor in the risk of tariff-related comments against China into your trading plan?
FX Diary