Market Summary

Liquidity has recovered after the holidays, and US interest rates and headline influences are likely to be reflected in prices

Trade-related news from China and U.S. interest rates will influence the direction of the dollar, so watch for upside and downside tests of the recent range.

Wait-and-see mood is likely to remain in Tokyo, with focus on flows after Europe and reaction in NY am

Assumed range

151.50-152.50 Front and back

On the downside, 151.70 to 151.50 is a candidate for a push, while on the upside, 152.40-152.50 is the initial barrier for a return.

Price range could expand depending on events, but the center of the range is expected to be around 151.90-152.20.

tactics

Basis is range rotation

Short-term rotation of return selling near the upper limit and push-buying near the lower limit

Follow thinly only when a break occurs and withdraw promptly if it does not extend

trigger

Above: Hold above 152.50 -> room to test around 152.80 on pullback holding

Downside: 151.70 break to 151.50, confirming the quality of the run and rebound.

The time frames are early European and New York morning, when the one-way change in U.S. interest rates occurred at the same time.

override condition

Upside failed to consolidate above 152.50 and returned to a return to the upper 152.20 level again.

Downside is denied if the 151.50 breakdown does not continue and a V-shaped recovery to 151.90 is made.

Both breaks with no volume and a lack of volume sense are invalid close.

risk event

Trade Headlines with China

Key U.S. interest rate-related statements and index headlines

Flow variation before and after option cut

Position Management

Size 0.5-0.7x normal, split execution with slippage avoidance

Gains are shallow, 15-25p in the range, and half of them are extended when following a break.

Losses are mechanically cut at 2-3p over the most recent push back.

checklist

Is the direction of U.S. interest rates and DXY consistent with price movements?

Thickness of the board at 152.40-152.50 and 151.70-151.50 and difficulty in passing contracts.

Whether or not the volatility expanded upon entering Europe and in the morning in New York, and whether or not the news occurred at the same time.

Market Summary

Liquidity is likely to recover after the holidays, and the previous day's euro selling stalled with little follow-through, so the sense of direction seems to be a return to the range.

Assumed range

1.1550-1.1700 Front and back

The center is assumed to be around 1.1600-1.1660

In case of expansion, watch for a downside near 1.1520 and an upside near 1.1720.

tactics

Basis is range rotation

Sell on the return when the upper limit is approached and buy when the lower limit is approached in small lots.

Follow the break thinly, and if it does not extend, withdraw promptly.

trigger

Exit above 1.1670 with retention above 1.1670 and pullback holding.

Downside is a run below 1.1550 and confirmation of a weak return.

Time of day is early European and New York morning volatility expansion phase

override condition

Above fails above 1.1670 and returns to a return to the upper boundary below 1.1620.

Downside is a failure to stay below 1.1550 and a recovery to the 1.1600 level to negate the downside.

A break that is not accompanied by a break that is not accompanied by a break that is not accompanied by a break that is not accompanied by a break that is accompanied by a break

risk event

Headlines on European business confidence and key figures' statements

U.S. interest rate-related indicators and statements

Sudden change in trade-related news

Position Management

Size is 0.5-0.7 times normal to prevent slippage

Gains are 15-25p in the range, and break following is half extension.

Losses are mechanically executed 2-3p outside of the most recent push back.

checklist

Is the direction of U.S. interest rates and DXY consistent with price movements?

Is there an increase in the difficulty of passing the boards and executions around 1.1670 and 1.1550?

Is the news and the expansion of the volatility occurring at the same time in early Europe and in the morning in New York?

Market Summary

Liquidity is easily restored after the holidays, and the previous day was a small range and lacked a sense of direction

Relatively strong influence of U.S. interest rates and trade headlines with China, limited material on the U.K. side

Assumed range

1.3320-1.3365 Front and back

The center is assumed to be around 1.3335-1.3355

tactics

Basis is range rotation

Sell back near the upper limit and buy at the lower limit in small lots

trigger

Upside is a stay above 1.3365 and pullback retention.

Downside is a run below 1.3320 and confirmation of a weak return.

Time of day is early European and New York morning volatility expansion phase

override condition

Above failed above 1.3365, and the pair returned to a return to the upper half of the market below 1.3340.

Downside is a failure to stay below 1.3320 and a recovery to 1.3350 will negate the downside.

risk event

U.S. interest rate-related headlines and key figures' statements

Surprises in European Indicators

Sudden change in trade-related news

Position Management

Size is 0.5-0.7 times normal to prevent slippage

Gains are 15-25p in the range, and following the break extends halfway.

Losses are mechanically executed 2-3p outside of the most recent push back.

checklist

Is the direction of U.S. interest rates and DXY consistent with price movements?

Is the board thickness and execution delay intensifying around 1.3365 and 1.3320?

Is the news and the expansion of the volatility occurring at the same time in early Europe and in the morning in New York?

Market Summary

Room for expansion from the previous day's narrow price movement as liquidity is easily restored after the holidays

Insufficient firming on the downside, but also lacks decisiveness on the upside and seems to be regressing to the range

Note the simultaneity of RBA minutes and China-related headlines with U.S. interest rates.

Assumed range

0.6465-0.6530 Front/rear

Widely around 0.6450-0.6560

Assumed center at 0.6485-0.6515

tactics

Basis is range rotation

Attempt to buy at the lower limit in small divisions to buy at the lower limit

Priority is to sell back when the upper limit is approached and profit margins are shallow.

trigger

Exit above 0.6530 stay above 0.6530 and hold pullback

Continued growth is considered to follow above 0.6560

Downside is a run below 0.6465 and confirmation of a weak return.

override condition

The upside is a failure to get above 0.6530 and a return to the upper side below 0.6510.

To the downside, a failure to break below 0.6465 and a recovery to the 0.6500 level would negate a downward push.

Breaks with poor volume and time frame support are invalid close.

risk event

RBA Agenda and Key Figures

China's economy and resource market headlines

U.S. interest rate-related indicators and statements

Position Management

Size is 0.5-0.7 times normal to prevent slippage

Interest is taken in stages within a range of 15-25p.

Losses are mechanically executed at 2-3p over the most recent push back.

checklist

Is the direction of DXY and U.S. interest rates consistent with prices?

Are there any signs of increased board thickness or difficulty in executing trades around 0.6530 and 0.6465?

Is the news and the expansion of the volatility occurring at the same time in early Europe and in the morning in New York?

looking back

With U.S. interest rates showing signs of stabilizing, the market lacked a sense of direction and remained in a small range in the low 152-yen range.

summary

The previous day, the market continued to lack decisive moves either up or down amid a lack of materials.

Trading was limited by a combination of US rate cut speculation and the BOJ's cautious stance.

Overall, the mood was strongly wait-and-see, with participants maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.

Today's Price Movement

Quiet price action in Tokyo hours in the low 152 yen

The European hour was also lackluster, and no major reaction was seen through the New York hour.

Continued directionless trading throughout the day, with trading dominated by short term sources

Background & Materials

Expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and slowing inflation restrain the dollar's upside

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy revision is receding, limiting the yen's momentum toward appreciation

Geopolitical factors and reports on U.S.-China relations had limited impact on the exchange rate.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around 152.70 is considered as upside resistance and stalls without breaking out

Around 151.80-152.00 acts as support and downward pressure is limited

Short-term moving averages are moving sideways, lacking a clear sense of direction

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Daily trend shows a lull in the uptrend and an adjustment phase for overheating

The area above 153.00 has bounced back multiple times and is strongly considered as resistance.

Medium-term support is near 151.00, and the tone is likely to be maintained until the price breaks below this level.

impression

A day in which the overall market lacked momentum and the decline in liquidity was clearly evident.

No active trading was seen, mainly position adjustments ahead of the event.

Market sentiment is somewhat cautious and ready to wait for the next U.S. economic indicators

trade observations

Short-term turnover is the main trend in the narrow price range, and it is difficult to aim for a breakout.

There was a lot of movement to refrain from entering the market except for participants who were mainly scalpers.

Environment in which it is effective to avoid taking unreasonable positions and take action at the upper and lower ends of the range

checklist

Check U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index.

Check for BOJ-related reports and currency intervention statements.

Reconfirmation of this week's schedule of U.S. economic indicators

looking back

Euro selling prevailed through the European hour, but the euro was bought back in the New York hour against the backdrop of a pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates, and closed on a positive note.

summary

The previous day, the dollar strengthened early in the day, but adjusted in the second half of the day and the euro moved lower

Lack of materials, day dependent on US interest rates and position adjustments

Although directionality was limited, the market was aware of firmness in the low 1.15s.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time hovering around 1.1570, small movement

After pushing lower to around 1.1550 in the European session, the pair closed at 1.1590s in the New York session due to stronger buying back in the New York session.

Despite temporary selling, calming U.S. interest rates supported the euro

Background & Materials

A lull in rising U.S. interest rates and an adjustment in the dollar index worked to sell dollars.

Fears of a European economic slowdown and the ECB's cautious monetary stance still restrain upside

Geopolitical risks are limited and the overall trend is technically driven

Technical Memo (Short-term)

1.1550 acts as short-term support, with upside resistance around 1.1600

Short-term moving averages are flat and volatility is declining

RSI hovering near neutral territory, showing no clear direction

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Lack of direction continues, hovering within the 1.1500-1.1700 range

Medium-term trend is slightly downward, but momentum of renewal of lows has slowed

Weekly support area is maintained and is in the stage of holding formation.

impression

Short-term trading was the main trend amid a lack of materials.

Interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Europe are narrowing, and the all-around momentum to buy the dollar is receding

Next U.S. economic indicators and statements from ECB officials may give direction

trade observations

The market is effective in pushing within a narrow range and turning back to sell on the return

Reaction was slow during the day, with liquidity key during the European and U.S. time frames.

A day more suitable for short-term rotation than trend-following

checklist

Check trends in U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index.

Confirmation of European economic indicators and ECB statement schedule

Watch for volume and reaction in the price movement between 1.1550 and 1.1600

looking back

Selling of the pound in the European hour on indicators of slowing wage growth in the U.K. was followed by buying back in the New York hour, which reduced the downward trend.

summary

The previous day saw mainly short-term price movements in response to the index results amid limited materials.

Concerns about a slowdown in the U.K. economy continued to limit upside, but a lull in rising U.S. interest rates also slowed dollar buying

Overall, the market remained within a range, and the day was lacking in a sense of direction.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time: small movement around 1.3330

The pair fell to around 1.3300 over European hours, testing the downside in the short term.

The price settled down a bit at the end of the day, closing at the 1.3340 level as buyers returned to the market in the New York time.

Background & Materials

A slowdown in UK wage indicators was the main reason for the pound sell-off

U.S. interest rate trends support the dollar, while risk-averse dollar buying is limited

Speculation about the timing of the BoE's interest rate cut and concerns about the economic slowdown remained in focus

Technical Memo (Short-term)

1.3300 is considered as a downside support, and 1.3380-1.3400 is a return target.

Short-term moving averages are flat and momentum is in neutral territory

Volatility is trending lower, with continued adjustments within the range

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The range of 1.3200-1.3450 is being maintained, with a firmer tone in the medium term

The medium-term trend is down, but the momentum of the low is weakening

Long candlesticks with lower whiskers appeared on the daily chart, suggesting firmness to the downside in the short term

impression

Even after the selling of the pound has run its course, there was no aggressive buying back, and the impression was that the market lacked a sense of direction.

Trading volume is also limited as the market awaits the next U.S. economic indicators and statements from BOE officials

Range-focused trading is likely to continue for the time being, while assessing risk factors

trade observations

Short-term rotation is effective with an eye on buying on the downside and selling on the upside

Lack of momentum meant that a conservative response was required for the day, rather than aiming for a breakout.

For short-term positions, it is safe to take shallow stops and be prepared for adjustments within the range.

checklist

Confirmation of UK economic indicators (employment and prices) results and market reaction

Tracking U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index

Watch for reports on statements by BOE officials and the outlook for the next meeting.

looking back

The Australian dollar was sold from Tokyo to the European time zone, but in the New York time zone, it was bought back after a lull in the U.S. interest rate rise, and eventually weakened slightly to the low 0.65s.

summary

Uncertainty in the U.S.-China relationship and risk aversion restrained the Australian dollar's upward movement.

AUD weakens against USD as RBA remains cautious

The market calmed down a bit in the New York time, but overall, the downward movement continued.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time hovered around 0.6550, pushing lower on the back of weakness in Asian equities

Test below 0.6500 in European hours, but some buying support was seen on the downside

The dollar made a small rebound during the New York session after a lull in the dollar's strength, but the return was limited and the pair closed near 0.6520 at the end of the session.

Background & Materials

Concerns about renewed trade friction between the U.S. and China strengthened the mood of risk aversion, triggering a sell-off in the Australian dollar.

RBA meeting minutes showed no rush to cut interest rates further, but concerns about economic slowdown were raised

A pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates and sluggish dollar growth contributed to the downside

Technical Memo (Short-term)

0.6480-0.6500 is the level that will be considered as short-term support

Around 0.6550 is the upper resistance zone for the return, and there is insufficient momentum for a break above.

Short-term moving averages are flat and continue to test the lower end of the range

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The market remains in a range of 0.6400-0.6650 and lacks a sense of direction in the medium term

Medium-term moving averages are moderately downward, and a shift to an upward trend has not been confirmed

The weekly line is a shadow with a lower whisker, and a certain amount of buying demand remains at the lower end of the range

impression

A mix of risk aversion and interest rate factors made it difficult to get a sense of direction for the Australian dollar.

Market is closely watching U.S. interest rate trends, limiting AUD-driven movement

Signs of technical consolidation to the downside, but upside pressure remains.

trade observations

In the short term, a push below 0.65 and a return around 0.6550 are valid for rotation.

Market suitable for day trading with limited price range rather than aiming for a break

Keep positions light and be prepared for news-driven volatility risk.

checklist

RBA officials' statements and outlook for next meeting confirmed

Tracking U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index

Watch for impact of Chinese economic indicators and stock price movements on the Australian dollar