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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | β | September Consumer Price Index (CPI) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π¨π³ China | β | September Producer Price Index (PPI) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β | August Industrial Production [month-on-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β | August Industrial Production [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| πΊπΈ America | β | Oct New York Fed Manufacturing Index |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| πΊπΈ America | β | U.S. District Fed Economic Report (Beige Book) |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
On the previous day, the market lacked a sense of direction while keeping an eye on the U.S. interest rate trend, and a small range of prices continued. With the market prone to swinging either up or down, we need to continue to pay attention to the initial price movements.
On the previous day, the euro was sold off through the European time, but in the New York time, there was a move to buy back and consolidate the lower price. The day before, the euro was sold off through the European time, but by the New York time, there was a move to consolidate lower prices as buyers returned to the market.
The previous day, the pound was sold predominantly during the European hour due to a slightly weaker UK wage index, but during the New York hour, a lull in the dollar's strength led to a buyback and a consolidation to the downside. Today, it will be interesting to see if the process of testing the upside will strengthen the return selling.
The previous day, the Australian dollar was sold off through the European time, but in the New York time, the dollar's strength paused and buyers began to buy back, reducing the downward trend. Although not consolidating the bottom, the market is now confirming the heaviness of the lower price in the short term, and today is a time to assess the momentum of the return while keeping an eye on upside resistance.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
Sold in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, but selling was again dominant in New York. Firmness to the downside was yet to be confirmed, and the reaction at 151.00 was the focus.
The euro was supported by the ECB's wait-and-see attitude and a lull in the dollar's strength as the ECB became aware of the sluggish growth of U.S. interest rates. The euro was bid from Tokyo to Europe, and once it was pushed down from Europe to early New York, it was bid again and closed at higher levels.
While the slowdown in U.K. wage growth and the BoE's cautious stance were noted, the dollar's strength was halted by the sluggish growth of U.S. interest rates. The dollar was bought from Tokyo to Europe, but was sluggish in the latter half of the day, and was pushed down once in New York, but was bought again and closed higher.
The dollar's strength slowed due to sluggish U.S. interest rates, supporting the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and after being pushed down once in New York, it was bought again to reduce the downward movement. Although the upward pressure remained, the market closed in a form that could not be described as predominantly selling.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
β Lower limit of range
There is no line at the upper limit, so round numbers, etc., are likely to be considered.
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day, there was no new sense of direction despite the U.S. interest rate trend, and the price remained in a small range in the low 152-yen range.
Price movements remain limited mid-week due to a combination of the retreat in US interest rate cut expectations and the BOJ's cautious stance.
Short-term changes may occur today in the hours of heightened liquidity ahead of U.S. economic indicators and key figures' statements.
Assumed range
151.80-152.70 area
The focus is on whether the upside can exceed 152.70.
The lower price is the indication of an adjustment if the price falls below 151.80
tactics
In the short term, we are prepared for a break either up or down, based on a range rotation.
Consider follow-up purchases in case of an upward breakout and a return sale in case of a downward breakout
Lighten positions for sudden changes and leave room for wait-and-see
trigger
Upward momentum may increase with a break above 152.70
Downside is likely to trigger stop selling below 151.80.
Watch for developments after the release of U.S. indices in the morning in Tokyo and in New York.
override condition
In the event of a clear break below 151.50
If we cannot break above 152.70 at the close, the upward scenario will be put on hold.
Forego even if price range is limited and volatility is reduced
risk event
U.S. retail sales, corporate earnings announcements, remarks by Fed officials
Japan's political news coverage and Ministry of Finance comments
Risk-averse yen buying due to geopolitical factors
Position Management
Keep the amount per position to about half the normal amount.
The profit margin is set at 20 to 30 pips, and the stop-loss is set based on the recent high and low.
When the direction changes, do not try to maintain the open price, but withdraw maneuverably.
checklist
Check U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index from time to time
Real demand flows and intervention alerts in the Tokyo market
Volatility change and volume before and after the release of the U.S. index
Market Summary
On the previous day, the euro was sold predominantly in the European time, but the euro was bought back in the New York time to consolidate the lower price.
A lull in the rise in U.S. interest rates and the dollar's strength adjustment were noted, and the market continued to move slightly in the 1.15 range
Overall, there is little sense of direction, and in the short term, we are in a phase of assessing the balance between the momentum of return and selling pressure.
Assumed range
Around 1.1530-1.1680
The mid-1.15s will be a downside guideline, and the area around 1.17 will be considered as upside resistance
Volatility is trending slightly lower and is expected to remain in a narrow range
tactics
Focus on selling on the return, but also consider short-term push-buying after confirming lower prices
Flexibility to sell at the upper end of the range and buy at the lower end of the range
Avoid excessive following in one direction when an indicator is announced
trigger
A break above 1.1700 could strengthen short-term buying interest.
Stop selling is likely to be triggered below 1.1530
Pay attention to U.S. retail sales and the time frame for key figures' statements.
override condition
Temporarily withdrawing the sell-back strategy in the event of a clear break above 1.1700 at the close
Wary of risk of a turn to a downward trend if the price breaks below 1.1500
Shift to waiting for a break if the price range continues to narrow
risk event
U.S. retail sales, Fed officials' remarks, price indexes in major European countries
Geopolitical risks and sharp fluctuations in energy prices
Policy-related comments by ECB members
Position Management
Position size adjusted by less than half of normal
Profit stop is based on 20 to 30 pips and loss stop is based on recent high and low.
At the time of a break, move your hands in stages without being biased in one direction
checklist
Check the direction of U.S. interest rate trends and the U.S. dollar index from time to time
Results of European economic indicators and tone of ECB officials' statements
Volume and price movements during the liquidity expansion phase in NY time
Market Summary
The previous day, a weak UK wage index led to selling of the pound in European hours.
In New York, a lull in the dollar's strength led to a buyback, consolidating the price in the lower 1.33s.
Overall, the market lacks a sense of direction, and in the process of testing the upside, there is a sense of pressure to sell back to the upside.
Assumed range
Around 1.3260 to 1.3410
The downside is considered as support at 1.3260 and upside resistance around 1.34.
Volatility is moderate, with a tendency to swing either up or down
tactics
While basing our reaction on a return sale, we would like to see a reaction in the low 1.33s.
Avoid deep selling in the short-term buyback phase and consider selling again on the return.
Keep the position light until you get a sense of direction and use a combination of range rotation
trigger
Short-term sources are likely to buy back in on a break above 1.3420
Stop selling may be triggered below 1.3260, increasing downward pressure
Focus on London time flow and price movements after the release of U.S. indices
override condition
A clear break above 1.3450 at the close would put the return scenario on hold.
Avoid following a decline below 1.3200 as it may be accompanied by overheating.
Temporary no-position is an option if the price movement stalls at the 1.33 level.
risk event
Continued UK CPI and Employment Report
U.S. retail sales and statements by Fed officials
Geopolitical factors and sharp changes in government bond yields
Position Management
Maximum size per position is half the normal size
The profit margin is set at 20 to 30 pips, and the stop-loss is set based on the recent high/low price.
Change hands in stages to avoid getting caught up in short-term ups and downs.
checklist
Check the results of the UK economic indicators and the reaction of the Pound Sterling interest rate
Understand the direction of U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Beware of temporary fluctuations due to actual demand flows during London time.
Market Summary
On the previous day, the Australian dollar was sold off in the European session, temporarily testing the 0.65 level.
A lull in the dollar's strength in the New York hours led to a buying spree and a move to narrow the gap to the downside.
The market has yet to consolidate lower prices, but is entering the middle of the week with short-term confirmation of lower prices
Assumed range
Around 0.6480-0.6620
The area around 0.65 is considered as a lower support band, and the lower 0.66s are resistance to the upside.
Overall, it is easy to assume that the market will remain in a range.
tactics
Basic stance is to buy on the downside and sell on the upside around the range rotation
Short-term upside is a priority to find a place to sell before 0.66
Keep positions light and focus on short-term rotation until a sense of direction emerges.
trigger
A break above 0.6620 would allow short-term buyers to buy back into the market.
Stops are likely to be sold below 0.6480, and downside caution is needed.
Wait-and-see mood in Tokyo time, focus on U.S. economic indicators in NY time
override condition
Temporarily suspend the return strategy if the closing price is clearly above 0.6640
Revise short-term push-back strategy if below 0.6460
Refrain from making new entries if the price movement stays in a narrow range of 0.65-0.66
risk event
U.S. retail sales and statements by Fed officials
Australian employment statistics and RBA related comments
Selling of resource currencies due to Chinese economic indicators and risk aversion
Position Management
Adjusted size per position less than half the normal size
The profit margin is set at 20 to 30 pips, and the stop-loss is set based on the recent high/low price.
Avoid one-way position bias and close positions in stages
checklist
Australian Indicators and Changes in RBA Outlook Confirmed
Understand the trend of U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Watch for risk sentiment in the Chinese market and resource prices
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
Sold in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, but selling again prevailed in New York, and solidity to the downside was not yet confirmed, with the focus on reaction at 151.00.
summary
An environment in which the authorities' restraint and the swing of U.S. interest rates simultaneously restrain upside and downside prices
Intervention alerts and real demand flows limited the rush, but sense of direction is still scarce.
Short-term: the 151-yen level is still under attack, and there is a strong range tone as we wait for new materials.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo is ahead of the sell-off in the early going, testing below 151.20.
In Europe, buy-backs were made and the price recovered to around 151.60.
In New York, the market was again dominated by selling and pushed back to the 151.00 area
Background & Materials
U.S. dollar up and down on sluggish U.S. interest rate growth and speculation on key figures' statements
Continued vigilance on headlines of statements by Japanese authorities
Flows linked to stock market strength and weakness also impacted
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside resistance is at 151.90-152.00
Lower price at 151.00 and 150.50 are candidates for a push
Short-term indicators are in neutral territory with little bias in momentum
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Maintain the range of 150.00-152.70
Volume needs to be established for an upward breakout.
On the downside, the psychological milestone of 150.00 is in mind
impression
Price range is limited due to the trend of increased forbearance and participation.
Waiting for a reaction rather than expecting a break is more advantageous for trading
trade observations
Based on range rotation, aiming for a rebound around 151.00 and a slowdown in the return at 151.90-152.00.
Blake follows in stages with reduced size, and retrogression is quickly retreated.
checklist
Board and reaction at 151.00 and 151.90-152.00
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
The presence or absence of statements by authorities or suggestions of intervention and the market's degree of incorporation
looking back
The ECB's wait-and-see stance and the sluggish growth of U.S. interest rates were recognized, and after a period of buying in Tokyo and Europe, the market was pushed back to a higher level in the second half of the New York session.
summary
A lull in dollar strength supports the euro, but upside consolidation is not yet confirmed.
In the short term, we expect the market to continue to hold at 1.1580-1.1660, and inspect the reaction at the upside resistance.
The development is easily influenced by hourly flows on the ground awaiting events.
Today's Price Movement
Asian hours were firm on the heels of the previous day's buying
After entering Europe, the upside is heavy as we wait for indicators to push the market higher.
In New York, buyers returned to the market on the back of a lull in interest rates and maintained higher prices at the end of the day.
Background & Materials
ECB continues to be data-dependent, with limited incorporation of additional measures
Swings in U.S. interest rates and the dollar index define the upper and lower limits of the euro
Sentiment changes in equities and credit affect short-term flows
Technical Memo (Short-term)
1.1630 to 1.1660 is the resistance zone for a return, and if it is established above, check for more room for a return.
1.1580 to 1.1600 is the target for a push, and a break below is cautioned to accelerate downward pressure.
Short-term momentum is near neutral, wary of pre/post-index blurring.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Continued search for direction within the range of 1.1550-1.1700
Moving averages are in sideways range and trend dominance is limited
Return selling pressure and push-buy demand are competing in the upper leg
impression
Technical-driven traffic centered on waiting for materials
Break targets require supporting volume, and it is safer to follow in stages.
Short-term focuses on time of day and liquidity rather than level-headedness
trade observations
Basis is range rotation, with push-buying at the bottom and return selling at the top
Above 1.1660, wait for consolidation above 1.1660 and follow small. Below 1.1580, wait for return below 1.1580.
Keep the size down just before the event and be prepared for the initial fakes.
checklist
Thickness and reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1630-1.1660
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
Tone of ECB key figures' statements and headlines of key indicators
looking back
While the slowdown in UK wage growth and the BoE's cautious stance were noted, the dollar's strength was halted by sluggish US interest rate growth, leading to buying from Tokyo to Europe and a push back to higher levels in New York.
summary
Mixed fundamentals and limited direction
Short-term remains unconfirmed on the upside, and the quality of the return and the stall point are to be verified.
Time-of-day flows and pre- and post-index blurring affect the price range
Today's Price Movement
Asia starts firm, testing the upside with Europe's entry
Pushed down once in early New York, but bought back in response to the lull in U.S. interest rates
Closing price remained at high level, and the attack and defense near the upper end of the range continued.
Background & Materials
While speculation of interest rate cuts smoldering due to slowing wage growth in the U.K., there are lingering concerns of a prolonged period of unchanged interest rates.
Swings in U.S. interest rates and stock market risk tolerance define the ups and downs of the pound
Continued oversensitive reaction to key figures' statements and high-frequency data
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Resistance zone on the upside is at 1.3400-1.3450
Lower price at 1.3330-1.3350 is a candidate for a push.
Momentum is closer to neutral, and a break requires continuous leg support.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Direction seeking within the range of 1.3300-1.3480
Moving averages are in sideways range and trend dominance is limited
Return selling pressure and push-buy demand are at odds in the upper leg
impression
Technical-driven traffic centered on waiting for materials
Focus on time of day and changes in liquidity rather than a sense of level
Note that in times of sudden change, the tendency is to lean toward news-driven
trade observations
Basis is range rotation, with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top
Follow-up is gradual, initial movement is size-controlled
Quickly withdraw and start over on a fake break.
checklist
Board and reaction at 1.3330 and 1.3400-1.3450
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
BOE key figures' statements and whether or not there are any surprises in the UK indices
looking back
The Australian dollar was supported by a pause in dollar strength due to sluggish U.S. interest rates, and after a buying spree in Tokyo and Europe, the Australian dollar closed lower in New York, with a push in New York.
summary
Funders have limited sense of direction as weakness on the Australian side and a lull in U.S. interest rates are competing
Short-term is a back-and-forth between 0.6480 and 0.6520 center to test the quality of the return and the thickness of the pushback.
The ground is susceptible to time zone factors while awaiting events
Today's Price Movement
Asia held firm in the aftermath of the previous day's buying
A test of the upside in Europe was sluggish, and a push was made in early New York.
The close ended with a buyback to the 0.65 area.
Background & Materials
Weak Australian employment and RBA's cautious stance restrain upside
Sluggish U.S. interest rate growth leads to a pause in dollar strength and support for the Australian dollar
Fluctuations in Chinese indices and resource prices will influence sentiment
Technical Memo (Short-term)
On the upside, resistance is at 0.6520 and if exceeded, inspect the return margin at 0.6550.
Lower price at 0.6500 and 0.6480 are candidates for a push
Oscillators are in neutral territory and momentum is close
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Direction seeking within a wide range of 0.6400 to 0.6700.
Moving averages are flat and trend dominance is limited
Return selling pressure and push-buy demand are at odds in the upper leg
impression
I'd rather focus on rotation while checking reactions than break expectations.
Effective size management that is not swayed by news-driven initial response
Short-term focus on time frames and liquidity rather than levels
trade observations
Basis is range rotation, with push-back at the bottom and return at the top
Follow-up is divided into smaller pieces and initial retrogression is quickly retreated
Hold back on new arrivals before and after the event, and wait for a more reliable pattern.
checklist
Thickness and reaction at 0.6480 and 0.6520
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
RBA-Related Headlines and Tone of Chinese Indicators
FX Diary