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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | β | August Machinery Orders [month-on-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π―π΅ Japan | β | August Machinery Orders [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π¦πΊ Australia | β | September New Jobs |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π¦πΊ Australia | β | September Unemployment Rate |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β β | August Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [MoM] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | August Manufacturing Production Index [month-over-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | August Industrial Production [month-on-month] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | August Industrial Production [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| πΊπΈ America | β | October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| πΊπΈ America | β | October NAHB Housing Market Index |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| type | Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | πͺπΊ Europe | European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde, remarks |
Today's Outlook
On the previous day, the price was sold in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, but was again dominated by selling in New York. The firmness of the lower price has yet to be confirmed, and today is a phase where we need to see where the lower price can consolidate.
On the previous day, buying was seen from Tokyo to Europe, and although it was pushed down once in New York, it was bought again and closed at a higher level. However, it did not give the impression of consolidating above the highs, and it remains to be seen where the highs will remain.
On the previous day, buying was seen from Tokyo to Europe, and after being pushed down once in New York, the price was bought again and closed at a higher level. However, the upward price has yet to be confirmed, and we will have to wait and see where the price will reach a high level.
On the previous day, the price was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and after being pushed down once in New York, it was bought again to reduce the downward trend. Although the upside remains heavy, it cannot be said to be dominated by selling, and we need to assess the strength and weakness of the pair through the attack and defense around 0.65.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
Buying back prevailed in Tokyo hours. In Europe, the market once bounced back, but in New York, dollar sales were strong against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates, limiting the return. The price closed at a low level at the end of the day.
The euro was supported by a pause in the dollar's strength as investors became aware of the sluggish growth of U.S. interest rates and the ECB's data-dependent stance. In Tokyo and Europe, the market remained in a directionless struggle as investors awaited for new materials, while in New York, buyers took the lead against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates, and there were scattered flows to pick up the slack. At the end of the session, the price closed at a higher level while testing the upside.
While the slowdown in wages and inflation in the U.K. and the cautious stance of the BoE restrained the upside, the sluggish growth of U.S. interest rates paused the dollar's appreciation. In European hours, the market continued to lack a sense of direction as it awaited materials. In New York, buyers began to return to the market and tested the upside, but the market closed slightly higher at the end of the day.
The direction of the market was limited due to the sluggish growth of US interest rates, the stance of the RBA depending on the data, and the swing in Chinese trends and resource prices. From Tokyo to Europe, the market remained in a firmer state as it awaited for more information, while in New York, the market continued to move back and forth. The market closed slightly lower amid a slow recovery and a sense of weakness on the upside.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
β Lower limit of range
There is no line at the upper limit, so round numbers, etc., are likely to be considered.
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
US interest rate swings and authorities' restraints continue to be the main factors, and intervention warnings are likely to limit upside.
On the previous day, the market was sold off in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, but selling was again predominant in New York, and the firmness of the lower price has not yet been confirmed.
Today, we expect the 151-yen level to be attacked and defended due to the depth of actual demand flow and rotation of short-term sources.
Assumed range
Around 150.50-152.00
Below, the focus is on whether 150.50 can be maintained, and if it breaks, there is room for confirmation around 150.00.
On the upside, 151.90 to 152.00 is the return target, and if exceeded, the next resistance is around 152.70.
tactics
Basis is a combination of push-buy and return selling around a range rotation
Watch for reaction at 150.50-151.00, but beware of a slower return at 151.90-152.00 on the upside.
Break phase follows in stages with reduced size
trigger
Short-term buyback is likely to be made on a break above 152.00
Downward pressure is likely to strengthen below 151.00, watch for a move near 150.50
Keep in mind the actual demand in the morning of Tokyo and the time frame for US indicators and key figures' statements in the NY time frame.
override condition
If the closing price remains clearly above 152.00, return selling priority will be temporarily reviewed.
If the price breaks below 150.00 clearly, a series of lows, the push-buy assumption will be put on hold.
Switch to waiting for a break if volume continues to fall and prices continue to narrow
risk event
U.S. Economic Indicators and Statements by Fed Officials
Changes in the comments and stance of the Japanese authorities on foreign exchange
Geopolitical headlines and sudden changes in the stock market
Position Management
Position size starts at half of the normal size, and increases or decreases in steps as the trigger is established.
The profit margin is set at 20 to 30 pips, and the stop-loss is set at the recent high/low breakout.
Maximum of two entries in the same direction, with a cooldown for consecutive failures
checklist
Thicknesses and reactions at 151.00 and 151.90-152.00
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
Japanese authorities' statements and suggestions of intervention and how the market perceives them
Market Summary
Euro remains resilient amid a pause in dollar strength as U.S. interest rates remain sluggish and the ECB takes a wait-and-see approach
After the buyers in Tokyo and Europe, the market was once pushed down in New York, but the buyers came back later and the market closed at a higher level.
However, the upper price has not yet been confirmed, and the focus for the time being is to determine the level at which the price will remain at a high level.
Assumed range
Around 1.1580-1.1660
Below confirms the thickness of the push at 1.1580-1.1600
Above is around 1.1630-1.1660 to check for a slowdown in return.
tactics
Basically, priority is given to buying at the push point while assuming range rotation.
On the downside, confirm reaction around 1.1600 before entry.
Combined with short-term return selling on the upside when a slowdown in returns was seen.
trigger
Short-term buyback is likely to be made on a break above 1.1660
Stop selling is likely to occur below 1.1580, watch out for downward pressure.
Note the widening of blurring before and after the index on entering Europe and during the NY time.
override condition
If the closing price remains clearly above 1.1660, the return assumption will be revised.
Suspend the push-buy assumption in the event of a series of lows clearly below 1.1560.
Switch to waiting for a break if volume declines and the price range continues to contract
risk event
ECB Dignitaries' Statements and Eurozone Inflation-Related Headlines
Key indicators and statements by Fed officials that affect the trend of U.S. interest rates
Spillover of risk aversion due to geopolitical related issues and sudden changes in the stock market
Position Management
Start with half the normal initial size and increase or decrease in steps.
The profit margin is estimated to be 20 to 30 pips, and the stop-loss is mechanically executed at the most recent high-low breakout.
Maximum of 2 re-entries in the same direction to avoid consecutive losses
checklist
Check the board and reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1660
Check the direction of U.S. interest rates and the dollar index from time to time.
Inspect the tone of ECB-related headlines and the market's degree of incorporation
Market Summary
Mixed tone of U.S. interest rate growth and cautious stance of the BoE, and the pound is on the way back, but also aware of the heaviness of the upside
Bidding was led by buyers in Tokyo and Europe, and after being pushed back in New York, the market closed at a higher level.
The upper price has not yet been confirmed, and today's focus is to determine the level at which the price will remain high.
Assumed range
Around 1.3330-1.3450
Below confirms the thickness of the push at 1.3330-1.3350
Above is around 1.3400-1.3450 to check for a slowdown in returns.
tactics
Basically, priority is given to push-buy based on range rotation.
Use short-term return selling in the upper price range, and follow in stages.
Limit size before and after the index and watch for reactions before participating.
trigger
Short-term buyback is likely to be made on a break above 1.3460
Stop selling is likely to occur below 1.3330, watch out for downward pressure.
Note the time frame for U.S. indicators and key figures' statements upon arrival in London and during the New York time period.
override condition
If the closing price remains clearly above 1.3460, the return assumption will be revised.
If a series of lows clearly below 1.3300 is seen, the push-buy assumption will be put on hold.
Switch to waiting for a break if the price range shrinks and volume declines
risk event
Continued UK employment and price-related reports and statements from BOE key figures
Key indicators and statements by Fed officials that affect the trend of U.S. interest rates
Spillover of risk aversion due to stock market and geopolitical headlines
Position Management
Initial movement starts at about half the normal size and increases or decreases in steps as the trigger is established.
The profit margin is estimated to be 20 to 30 pips, and the stop-loss is executed mechanically at the most recent high-low breakout.
Maximum of 2 re-entries in the same direction to avoid consecutive losses
checklist
Thickness and reaction at 1.3330 and 1.3400-1.3450
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
Tone of BOE-related headlines and market incorporation
Market Summary
AUD is testing a return to growth, but is still cautious about the upside, as U.S. interest rates remain sluggish and the RBA takes a cautious stance
On the previous day, the market was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and after being pushed down once in New York, it was bought again and closed lower.
Currently, the price continues to attack and defend the 0.65 area, and we are still waiting to see which of the two flows will prevail.
Assumed range
Around 0.6480 to 0.6620
Below confirms the thickness of the push at 0.6500 and 0.6480
Above is around 0.6600-0.6620 to check for a slowdown in return.
tactics
Basis is based on range rotation, with priority given to push-buying at lower levels
In the upper price range, wait for a sign of slowing return and combine with a short-term return sale.
Keep the size down right before the event and participate in stages after seeing the response.
trigger
Assuming a break above 0.6620, a phase where short-term buybacks are likely to enter.
Stops are likely to be sold below 0.6480 and cautioned against a downward push.
Keep in mind the expansion of volatility in the second half of Tokyo, early London, and around the NY indexes.
override condition
If the closing price continues to consolidate above 0.6640, the return assumption will be revised
If the price clearly breaks below 0.6460 and becomes a consecutive low, we will hold off on the assumption of a push.
Switch to waiting for a break if the price range shrinks and volume declines
risk event
Further Australian employment-related reports and RBA key figures' statements
Interest rate fluctuations due to major U.S. indices and statements by Fed officials
Sentiment change due to rapid changes in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices
Position Management
Initial movement starts at about half the normal size, and increases or decreases in steps as the trigger is established.
The profit margin is estimated to be 20 to 30 pips, and the stop-loss is executed mechanically at the latest high/low breakout.
Maximum of 2 re-entries in the same direction to avoid consecutive losses
checklist
Plate and reaction at 0.6500 and 0.6600 to 0.6620
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
Headline Tone of RBA Statements and Chinese Indicators
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
Tokyo's buy-backs were strong, but sluggish in Europe, and dollar sales strengthened in New York as U.S. interest rates fell, closing at a lower level.
summary
Sluggish growth in U.S. interest rates led to a pause in the dollar's appreciation, and the upside remained heavy.
The initial breakout was difficult to sustain as the authorities were restrained from pursuing higher prices.
A range-centric day with a lot of back and forth between 151.00 and 151.60
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo is supported by a push to the downside, but a slowdown in returns is becoming apparent in Europe.
New York's sell-off intensified as interest rates fell and returns were limited.
The close was at a low around 151.00
Background & Materials
Heady environment for U.S. interest rates and waiting for indicators to give a sense of direction
On the Japanese side, authorities' restraint and speculation of intervention restrained upside.
Changes in equity risk appetite affect short-term flows
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside is 151.60-151.90 resistance zone for return
Downside divergence at 151.00 in the near-term and room to test 150.50 on a break below.
Short-term MAs are flat and oscillators are in neutral territory
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Return preference remains unless 152.00 is established
150.00 is a psychological milestone and a level to measure the sustainability of the downward push
Small substance and prominent whiskers on the daily legs suggest a trend slowdown
impression
Sensitivity to interest rate headlines is high and price movements are likely to be volatile, despite the fact that we are waiting for materials
Initial direction is easy to reverse and should be followed carefully.
trade observations
Within the range, rotation around the push near 151.00 and the return near 151.60
If the break enters small and does not continue, withdraw immediately.
Keep size down and manage stop-losses tight before and after events
checklist
Confirmation of board thickness and execution street at 151.00 and 151.60
Confirmation of the same directionality of U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Check for the presence of headlines related to the authorities and the market's degree of incorporation
looking back
The euro was supported by a lull in the dollar's strength and closed higher due to sluggish U.S. interest rates and the ECB's data-dependent stance.
summary
While the direction of the market is limited, there are more buying-dominant time frames, and the market is likely to pick up at the bottom of the market.
Breaks are unlikely to continue as we wait for events, and price ranges are stretched and contracted depending on the time of day.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo was firm in small moves and slowly rising in early Europe
In the second half of Europe, the market was sluggish, but in New York, it closed at a higher level as interest rates fell and buying returned to the market.
Background & Materials
Slowing momentum in U.S. indicators and expectations of interest rate headway restrain the dollar.
ECB Continues to Depend on Data, Hawkish and Dove Observers Mixed
Risk tolerance for stocks and credit influences short-term flows
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside is the 1.1660-1.1680 resistance zone on the return
Downside is 1.1600-1.1580 is a candidate for a push and a break is inspected at 1.1550
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Cautious about upside unless 1.1700 is established.
Daily trend continues to be on the upper side of the range and direction is awaited for the next material.
impression
Initial fakes are easy to follow and follow-up is effective in clarifying division and withdrawal criteria.
Note high sensitivity to interest rate headlines
trade observations
Basis is range rotation with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top
If growth slows, take profits early to prioritize turnover efficiency and follow breaks in a small way.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1660
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
Availability of ECB-related headlines and degree of incorporation
looking back
Europe was waiting for materials and lacked a sense of direction, while buying returned in New York and the market closed slightly higher.
summary
Sluggish U.S. interest rate growth pauses dollar strength and supports the pound
On the other hand, the UK's wage and inflation slowdown and the BOE's cautious stance restrain upside
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo was small, Europe was slowly rising in the early part of the day but sluggish in the latter half.
In New York, buybacks prevailed at times, and the market ended slightly higher with a test of the upside.
Background & Materials
Tend to be linked to high-frequency indicators such as U.S. housing and business confidence, and to swings in U.S. Treasury yields
UK side continues to be sensitive to headlines as they continue to assess the strength and weakness of the real economy
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside is a zone of possible return pressure at 1.3430-1.3450
Downside is 1.3350-1.3330 is a potential push point and 1.3300 is a psychological milestone
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Range reversion is the main focus if there is no multi-leg fixing above 1.3450.
Conscious of a downward shift in the range if it continues below 1.3330
impression
Easy to get caught up in the initial fakes, and confirmation of the same direction of time and interest rates is important.
Price range is limited, and short-term impression is that rotation in the upper and lower bands is likely to work
trade observations
Basis is range rotation, with push-back at the bottom and return at the top
Profit is split at 15-25 pips and stop-loss is managed at 10-20 pips before the latest high and low.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 1.3350 and 1.3430
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
Availability of BOE-related headlines and the market's degree of incorporation
looking back
The market was slightly lower in Tokyo and Europe, waiting for materials, and closed slightly lower in New York after a slow return to the market after the traffic.
summary
Sluggish U.S. interest rate growth pauses dollar strength while Australian dollar upside is limited
Mixed strength/weakness due to intermittent impact from China and resource price swings
The market continues to move around 0.6500 and awaits the next material for direction.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo moves slightly lower and remains firm, but the upside is sluggish.
Europe's return attempt failed to gain momentum and returned to the range.
New York reacted to interest rate headlines and continued to trade back and forth, slightly lower at the end of the day.
Background & Materials
RBA Continues to Depend on Data and Limited Guidance
Slowing momentum in U.S. indicators and expectations of a headway in interest rates restrain the dollar's upside.
China-related news and resource price fluctuations influence sentiment
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The upside is the 0.6540-0.6560 resistance zone for a return sale
Downside is 0.6500-0.6480 for a potential push, with a break below 0.6450 for inspection.
Short-term oscillators are in the neutral range with small bias
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Verification of room in the direction of 0.6600 with multiple leg fixing above 0.6560.
Stagnation below 0.6480 indicates a downward shift in the range.
The daily trend is small in size and awaits the next material to determine the trend.
impression
Initial fakes are easy to follow and follow-up is effective in clarifying division and withdrawal criteria.
Keep in mind the spread and slippage during times when the board is thin.
trade observations
Basis is range rotation with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top
Focus on turnover efficiency by dividing the profit margin into 10-20 pips.
Limit stop-losses to 10-20 pips before recent highs and lows and reduce the size of stop-losses before events.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 0.6500 and 0.6540
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
RBA-related headlines and availability of news from China
FX Diary