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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | September Consumer Price Index (HICP, revised) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | September Consumer Price Index (HICP Core Index, revised) [yoy] |
Graph Display
Displays a graph of rate fluctuation after an index announcement
|
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
On the previous day, while buyers returned to the market in Tokyo, dollar selling prevailed in New York against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates and the market closed at a lower level. Today, we need to assess the momentum of the recovery and the point of stall. Also, rebalancing flows should be watched carefully as a weekend factor.
The previous day saw continued firmer trading in Tokyo and Europe, and from New York, buying prevailed on the back of lower interest rates. At the end of the day, the price closed at a higher level while testing the upside. Today, we need to assess the sustainability of the momentum and the depth of the push. Also, rebalancing flows need to be watched carefully as a weekend factor.
The previous day was a day of lack of direction, mainly in Europe, as the market waited for materials, but in New York, buying returned and the market closed slightly higher. Today, we need to carefully assess the momentum of the return and the depth of the pushback. We also need to be wary of rebalancing flows due to the weekend.
On the previous day, the pair continued to haggle from Tokyo to Europe amid a lack of materials, and also came and went in New York. The price continued to move around the 0.6500 area, and we need to assess the heaviness of the upside and the depth of the pushback. Also, rebalancing flows should be watched carefully as a weekend factor.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
During the Tokyo session, dollar selling prevailed against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates, temporarily softening to the mid-149-yen level. The dollar continued to soften in the early European session, but in the latter half of the session, the dollar was back on a buying trend as U.S. stock futures stopped falling, and in the New York session, positive comments from President Trump regarding relations with China were reported, and the dollar turned higher. As a result, the pair closed the day having almost made up for the decline until European hours, and overall, the day was marked by an awareness of the firmness of the market after the adjustment.
In Tokyo hours, euro buying was dominated by the softening of the U.S. dollar, but in European hours, selling became more prevalent and the upward movement was restrained. As a result, the pair closed the day losing all of its intraday gains, making the day a day of heavy upside.
In Tokyo, the pound was bought on the back of a softening U.S. dollar, but in European hours, the pound turned to decline as sellers gained the upper hand.
During Tokyo hours, the dollar was predominantly bought against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates, and the Australian dollar fell to around 0.6450. In European hours, the dollar was bought back on the back of lower Australian bond yields and a pickup in stock prices, while in New York, the dollar was bought again in response to President Trump's positive comments on relations with China, but the buyers took over in the latter half of the session. As a result, the market regained all of the downside it had lost up to the early European session and closed higher.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
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session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The combination of sluggish U.S. interest rates and the authorities' restraining influence makes it difficult to chase higher or lower prices
Tokyo is likely to see a return to the market and a recovery in Europe, while New York is likely to swing back to an interest rate-driven environment.
The previous day, after buying back in Tokyo, dollar selling prevailed in New York, and the low close is testing the sustainability of the momentum.
Assumed range
150.50-151.90 Front and rear
On the downside, 150.50 is a candidate for a push, and a break would inspect downside room to the 150.00 area.
On the upside, the focus is on whether or not the upside can be established at 151.90-152.00, the resistance zone for the return.
tactics
Basis is range rotation with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top
Prepare for initial fakes and split in and split out.
Follow small breaks and retreat quickly if the market stalls.
trigger
Above, watch for a test of the 151.90 direction with a firm break above 151.60.
Downside is a break below 151.00 with 150.50 test in view.
The time frame is likely to be reactive to interest rate headlines entering Europe and early New York
override condition
If 151.90+ is established on multiple legs with volume, the return assumption is invalidated.
If the price falls clearly below 150.50 and continues to languish around 150.00, the push-buy assumption is invalidated
risk event
U.S. housing and business confidence indicators
Dignitaries' Statements and Authorities' Inspection Headlines
Bias in dollar flows due to U.S. Treasury bond auctions and sharp changes in yields
Position Management
Size is controlled to 50-70% of normal and added after confirmation of continuous legs
Interest is taken in steps of 15-25 pips.
Stop-losses are limited to 10-20 pips from the high/low immediately before the entry basis.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 151.00 and 151.60
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
Availability of authority-related headlines and the market's degree of incorporation
Market Summary
Sluggish U.S. interest rate growth pauses dollar strength and supports the euro, while the ECB remains data-dependent
Tokyo and Europe were faltering, while in New York, the buying power was strong and the market closed at a higher level, a phase that verifies the sustainability of momentum
Assumed range
1.1600-1.1680 Front and back
Below is the push zone at 1.1600-1.1580 and above is the return pressure at 1.1660-1.1680
tactics
Basis is range rotation, with push-buying at lower levels
Follow a small breakout, and if the growth slows down, promptly take profit and rework.
trigger
Above 1.1660, above 1.1660, established above 1.1680, watch for 1.1680 test.
Below is below 1.1600, eyeing a test of 1.1580.
Easy to react to interest rate headlines and U.S. indicators entering Europe and early New York
override condition
If the price remains above 1.1680 for multiple legs with volume, the return assumption is invalidated.
If it stays clearly below 1.1580, the push-buy assumption is invalidated.
risk event
High-frequency indicators of U.S. housing and business confidence
ECB Dignitaries' Statements and Eurozone Price and Demand-Related Headlines
Sudden change in risk tolerance for stocks and credit
Position Management
Size starts at 50-70% of normal, add after confirming continuous legs
The profit margin is split at 15-25 pips, and the stop loss is 10-20 pips before the recent high and low.
Hold back new orders before and after the index, and be sure to set stop-losses for existing orders.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1660
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
Availability of ECB-related headlines and the market's degree of incorporation
Market Summary
While the dollar's strength pauses due to sluggish U.S. interest rates, on the U.K. side, wage and inflation slowdown and the BOE's cautious stance restrain the upside.
On the previous day, the market struggled mainly in the European time and closed slightly higher in New York on the back of buying, and we are looking for confirmation of sustained momentum and the thickness of the push.
Assumed range
1.3350-1.3450 Front/Back
On the downside, 1.3350 is a candidate for a push, while a break would inspect the reaction around 1.3330
Above, a return pressure is assumed at 1.3430-1.3450 zone
tactics
Basis is range rotation with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top
Adjust size according to changes in liquidity at different times of the day, and rotate with early gains if growth slows.
Enter small for a break, and if it does not last, withdraw immediately.
trigger
Above is 1.3430, with 1.3450 test in view on firming above 1.3430.
Below is a clear break below 1.3350 and watch for a test of 1.3330
Easy to react to interest rate headlines and U.S. indicators entering Europe and early New York
override condition
If the price holds above 1.3450 for multiple legs, the return assumption is invalidated.
If it stays clearly below 1.3330, the push-buy assumption is invalidated.
risk event
High-frequency indicators of U.S. housing and business confidence
BOE key figures' statements and UK price/demand related headlines
Changes in stock market risk tolerance and sharp changes in U.S. interest rates
Position Management
Initial movement is kept to 50-70% of normal and added after confirmation of successive legs.
Profit is split at 15-25 pips, and a portion of unrealized profit is secured.
Stop-losses are limited to 10-20 pips from the high/low immediately before the event.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 1.3350 and 1.3430
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
Availability of BOE-related headlines and the market's degree of incorporation
Market Summary
Limited direction due to a mix of sluggish U.S. interest rate growth and the RBA's data-dependent stance
The previous day, after continued firings in Tokyo-Europe, New York continued to come and go, closing slightly lower.
The 0.6500 area will continue to be attacked and the strength/weakness will depend on materials and time zone flows
Assumed range
0.6480-0.6560 before and after
Below is the push zone of 0.6500 and 0.6480
Above, check for return pressure at 0.6540-0.6560.
tactics
Basis is range rotation with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top
Ensure mobility by entering and taking profits in installments in anticipation of initial fakes
Follow small breaks and withdraw quickly when growth slows.
trigger
Above is 0.6540 established above and 0.6560 test cautioned.
Below is below 0.6500, eyeing a test of 0.6480.
Easy to react to interest rate headlines and U.S. indicators entering Europe and early New York
override condition
If the price holds above 0.6560 for multiple legs, the return assumption is invalidated.
If it stays clearly below 0.6480, the push-buy assumption is invalidated.
risk event
High-frequency indicators of U.S. housing and business confidence
RBA Dignitaries and Australian Prices and Demand Related Headlines
China-related news and sudden changes in resource prices
Position Management
Size starts at 50-70% of normal and added after confirming continuous legs
Interest is accumulated in installments of 10-20 pips.
Stop-losses are limited to 10-20 pips from the high/low immediately before the event.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 0.6500 and 0.6540
Direction of U.S. Interest Rates and Dollar Index
RBA-related headlines and availability of news from China
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
The dollar sold off from Tokyo to early Europe, but in the New York time, dollar buying prevailed in response to comments made against China, and the market almost regained its downward momentum to close lower.
summary
After briefly softening in the mid-149-yen range, the dollar was bought back in New York and recovered to the 150-yen level.
Overall, the day was marked by a reconfirmation of the firmness of lower prices after an adjustment, and a search for a turning point in the trend was evident.
Although directional movements were limited, the amplitude of price movements widened slightly throughout the day.
Today's Price Movement
In Tokyo hours, the dollar was sold against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates, falling to around 149.50.
The softness continued in the early European session, but a rebound in U.S. stock futures in the second half of the day led to stronger buying.
In New York, President Trump's comments on China spurred dollar buying, which moved back to around 150.20.
Background & Materials
A temporary drop in U.S. interest rates and a softening of the U.S. dollar index were early downside factors.
The cautious stance of U.S. officials and risk aversion temporarily prompted yen buying.
Market sentiment was lifted by President Trump's positive attitude toward improving relations with China.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 149.50 area acted as short-term support and rebounded toward the end of the day.
The 150.20 area will be considered as a return guideline for the time being.
In the short term, the moving averages are converging and the shape of the range is still firmer.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The uptrend that has been in place since the end of September has paused, suggesting that the market is entering an adjustment phase.
The resistance zone overlaps from the mid-150 yen to the 153 yen level, and upside pressure is conscious.
On the other hand, a break below 149 yen would easily allow for some push-buying, suggesting a continuation of the range tone.
impression
The market reacted quickly to policy statements, interest rate movements, and other materials, giving the impression that short-term position adjustments were the main focus.
The development of buying back into the market while testing lower prices reflects investors' cautious risk management stance.
The key to a clearer sense of direction will likely be U.S. economic indicators and statements from the beginning of the week.
trade observations
Short-term buybacks at the pushpoint were more prevalent than moves to break support.
During the rebound phase in New York, short-term longs worked after confirming a recovery to the 150-yen level.
The price range narrowed at the end of the day, giving the impression that trading settled down due to position adjustments.
checklist
See if 149.50 support can hold
Watch for a break through the resistance zone of 150.20-150.50
Confirmation of U.S. interest rate trends and change in risk appetite at the end of the week
looking back
In Tokyo, the softening of the U.S. dollar led to buying of the euro, while in Europe, selling turned to the upside, and in New York, buying of the dollar in response to comments made against China caused the euro to give up its gains.
summary
Risk appetite returned to the upside in the early going, but from Europe onward, there was a sense of weakness on the upside.
In New York, the euro was sluggish as dollar buying strengthened, offsetting intraday gains.
In the closing stages, it was difficult to determine the direction of the market, and there was a strong short-term traffic color.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time was dominated by buyers, with a test around 1.17
European hours saw a return sell-off and upside was restrained at the 1.17 level.
In New York, the dollar was bought in response to comments made against China and pushed back to the latter half of 1.16.
Background & Materials
Euro supported by slightly lower U.S. interest rates and early risk appetite
In Europe, profit-taking and position liquidation ahead of the indexes led to a return to the market.
In New York, positive comments on relations with China were conveyed and dollar buying strengthened.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The 1.1700 area is the key to a return, and the market is likely to be pushed back if it fails to break above the 1.1700 area.
Focus is on whether the lower price can be maintained between 1.1670 and 1.1680 area.
Short-term moving averages are flat, suggesting range formation
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Continued to hover within a wide range in the upper 1.16s to just before 1.18
On the upside, we are aware of the heaviness around 1.18, and on the downside, we would like to observe a reaction in the mid-1.16s.
Momentum is likely to be neutral and direction will depend on materials
impression
It was a day of quick reactions to materials, with leadership switching from hour to hour.
Returns and pushes were intermingled, and the inclination of positions did not seem large.
Interest rates and indexes continue to line up for the next business day
trade observations
Tokyo's upswing was more likely to function as a short-term pushover.
In Europe, it was safe to follow lightly in line with the return-dominant trend.
New York's fast price movement and profit-dominant rotation were effective.
checklist
Confirmation that the lower band of 1.1670-1.1680 can be maintained
Confirmation of change in return pressure from 1.1700 to 1.1730
Confirmation of correlation change between U.S. interest rates and U.S. and European indicators
looking back
In Tokyo hours, the pound was bought against the backdrop of a softening dollar, but selling was dominated in European hours, and in New York, the dollar was bought in response to President Trump's comments against China.
summary
The market rallied in the early part of the session on pound buying reflecting risk appetite, but profit-taking was heavy from Europe onward.
In New York, the pair was pushed back by temporary dollar buying and was slightly higher at around 1.34.
The day was directionless, and the daily candle closed with a small substance.
Today's Price Movement
The Tokyo session saw the pair rise to around 1.3450 on lower U.S. interest rates.
In European hours, risk aversion pushed the pair back to just below 1.34.
In New York, President Trump's comments on China strengthened dollar buying and continued the upward trend.
Background & Materials
In the U.S., concerns over the government shutdown and financial instability were the main reasons for dollar market volatility.
On the UK side, the slowdown in the economic outlook is a factor limiting the pound's upside.
The dollar was lifted by the U.S. administration's comments, and the dollar was also bought predominantly against the pound.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The upside is held at around 1.3450, and the pair is conscious of a short-term return to the market.
1.3400 is the near-term support level to watch.
Short-term moving averages are trending sideways, suggesting a firmer market.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The uptrend since September has paused and the adjustment phase continues.
The focus is on whether the medium-term support line located around 1.34 can be maintained.
The upside is overlapped by a resistance zone near 1.36, where return pressure remains.
impression
Selling and buying were mixed throughout the day, with limited directional movement in the pound.
Short-term material from U.S. political-related statements also affected the liquidity situation.
The market is likely to be in the process of determining the consistency between interest rates and economic indicators.
trade observations
Short-term buying was effective during the rally in Tokyo time, but return selling prevailed from Europe onward.
The early gains seemed to have paid off as the dollar turned to buy in New York.
With no sense of direction, the market was focused on short-term trades.
checklist
Confirmation of maintaining support for 1.3400
Conscious of resistance zone above 1.3500
Watch for developments in U.S. interest rates and U.K. economic indicators
looking back
The dollar was bid higher in Tokyo and early Europe, but from the second half of the day, buyers began to buy back, and the Australian dollar eventually recovered its losses.
summary
While the day lacked a sense of direction, there was a noticeable buyback from the second half of the day in Europe.
The Australian dollar remained firm despite a brief dollar buying spree in New York
Overall, the market swung within the range of 0.6450-0.6500 but finished higher.
Today's Price Movement
The Australian dollar fell to around 0.6450 in Tokyo as dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates.
In European hours, Australian bond yields ceased to fall and stock prices rebounded, leading to a buyback and a recovery to the 0.6480 level
In New York, President Trump's comments on China strengthened dollar buying, but the Australian dollar was also bought and eventually held its highs.
Background & Materials
Temporary decline in U.S. interest rates triggered dollar buying back, contributing to early downward pressure
On the Australian side, the calm in domestic bond yields was a supportive factor, and the trend toward a recovery in risk appetite was noted.
Market sentiment improved after President Trump's comments, buying both the dollar and the Australian dollar.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
0.6450 acted as short-term support and rebounded toward the end of the day
0.6500 was considered as an upside guideline, and a test of an upside breakout was seen.
In the short term, moving averages converge and the shape of the firmer trend continues
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The downward trend since mid-September has slowed down and formed a holding pattern at the bottom of the market
While there is room for a test of the 0.66 level if the 0.6500+ level is established, the structure is likely to be pushed in the low 0.64s.
Medium-term direction is difficult to determine, and the trend will continue to move within the main range.
impression
Markets were sensitive to news on U.S. interest rate trends and U.S.-China relations for the day.
The Australian dollar has a strong correlation with the U.S. dollar and is prone to short-term price movements for each material.
Aggressive positions appeared subdued even as risk sentiment continued to improve
trade observations
Short-term buying functioned at the lows in Tokyo time, capturing the rebound.
Long positions prevailed with buybacks in the second half of Europe.
In New York, the market continued to hover around the highs, and the flow was centered on short-term trades.
checklist
Check if 0.6450 support can be maintained
Watch for fixation above 0.6500
Continued to check the impact of U.S. interest rates and China-related statements
FX Diary