Market Summary

The yen has weakened slightly as progress in Japan's ruling coalition has raised expectations of fiscal expansion.

On the other hand, the narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate gap and policy uncertainty will limit the upside of the dollar-yen.

The previous day's price movement was slight and lacked direction, and the market is cautiously watching to see if the momentum of the return can be sustained.

Assumed range

Assuming 149.50-151.50 area.

tactics

We will keep in mind range rotation based on push-buying, in combination with return selling.

trigger

Upper breakout level: above around 150.90.

Downside level: A break below the 149.70 area.

Time zone: Watch for movement in the early Tokyo market.

override condition

Assumed negative price: a sharp rebound above the upper limit clearly to the 152.00 area, or a sharp drop below the lower limit to the 149.00 area.

risk event

Preliminary National Consumer Price Index (to be released on October 23) and Bank of Japan related statements.

Position Management

The size is kept at about 50% of the standard range, the profit target is set at about half of the range width, and the stop-loss target is set near the bottom of the range if the lower limit is broken.

checklist

Progress in Japan's ruling coalition coverage is confirmed.

Monitoring of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential and statements and events by the Bank of Japan and the U.S.

Observe how the dollar reacts to the key levels of 149.70 and 150.90.

Market Summary

Limited sense of direction awaiting European indices, but the strength of the return phase is being gauged.

Intermittent reactions to U.S. interest rates and key figures' statements mixed with heavy upside and downside buying.

The previous day reaffirmed the upward pressure, but also failed to consolidate the top.

Assumed range

Assumed to come and go around 1.1600-1.1750

There is room for range expansion depending on events, but first priority is to attack and defend within the range.

tactics

Small increments based on range rotation due to indistinct base tone

Sell on the upside, buy on the downside, and withdraw as soon as the advantage fades.

Short-term trials with the highest priority on avoiding deception in the first phase of the break

trigger

Confirmation of breakthrough and push formation around 1.1720 to the upside.

Downside is a break below the 1.1620 area and confirmation of a return to the market and the establishment of a return to the market.

Watch for price movements immediately after the flash PMI and key figures' statements in European hours.

override condition

Assumption of an upper breakout is invalid if the stay at the upper level does not continue and the time spent above the recent high is extremely short.

The downside assumption is invalid if the lower level fails to establish itself and rapidly reverts back into the range.

risk event

Eurozone Flash PMI

Views on statements and minutes of major Central Bank officials

U.S. business confidence indicators and inflation-related updates

Position Management

Size should start at 50-70% of normal and be one step lighter before the event.

Gains are fixed in stages near the center of the range or before the most recent swing.

Losses are executed mechanically against the level of trigger negation and the average profit/loss ratio is maintained above 1.

checklist

Headlines and breakdown of European PMIs confirm direction of

Confirm the impact on the euro of simultaneous changes in U.S. interest rates and the dollar index

Check to see if the upper and lower bounds of the range have been updated by liquidity changes from Asia to Europe

Market Summary

Slowdown in U.K. inflation and wages combined with uncertainty about the BoE's future, slowing returns, but easy to buy back on a downward push

The previous day reconfirmed the heaviness of the upside even in the return scene, and today we are in a situation where we need to assess the momentum of the return and the reaction to the push.

High sensitivity to U.S. interest rates and key figures' statements, watch for direction entering European hours

Assumed range

Assumed to come and go around 1.2620-1.2760

Range expansion is seen as likely to occur to a limited extent immediately after indicators and key figures' statements.

tactics

Based on range rotation, sell back at the top and buy at the bottom in small increments

Break attempts are split to avoid initial cheating

trigger

Upside confirms consolidation and push formation around 1.2740

Downside confirms a clear break below the 1.2640 area and a firm return to the market.

Focus on increasing volume phases in early London and early New York

override condition

Assumption of an upper exit is invalid if it does not continue to stay at the upper level and reverts back into the range early.

Assumption of a lower exit is invalid if it fails to stay at the lower level and quickly recovers the center of the range on a rebound.

risk event

Headlines on preliminary UK PMI and inflation-related indicators

Update on statements by key Central Bank officials and views related to Congress

Interest rate trends based on U.S. PMI and other U.S. business sentiment indicators

Position Management

Start at 50-70% of normal and go one step lighter before and after the event.

Gains are fixed in stages before the center of the range or before the most recent swing.

Losses are mechanically executed against the level of trigger negation and risk reward is consistently managed

checklist

Surprise direction and breakdown of UK indicators.

Confirm simultaneous changes in U.S. interest rates and the dollar index

Confirmation of upper and lower range renewal upon entry into London

Market Summary

Comments from U.S. officials on China supported market sentiment, and the Australian dollar was on a buying spree after being pushed lower.

Despite lingering uncertainty over the Chinese economy, rising stock prices and risk appetite support the Australian dollar

On the previous day, after testing the lower price in the European hours, the return strengthened through the New York hours

Assumed range

Assuming around 0.6470-0.6570

Short-term trend to confirm lower prices but search for return momentum

tactics

Mainly buy at the push point, and respond in stages while watching for support around 0.65.

Maintain a flexible attitude, prioritizing profit taking at higher prices and also being aware of range rotation.

trigger

An upside breakout would be if the price clearly exceeds the 0.6560 area and settles in.

Downside is likely to tilt in favor of a return sell-off upon confirmation of a break below 0.6470.

Focus on initial direction in Tokyo and European hours.

override condition

Assumption of an upward breakout is invalid if a new high is followed by an immediate selloff back into the range.

The downside assumption is invalid if the 0.65 level is recovered again due to rapid buybacks after the interruption.

risk event

Chinese economic indicators and policy-related reports

RBA Related Statements and Inflation Outlook Update

Changes in the U.S. dollar index due to trends in U.S. interest rates and statements by key figures

Position Management

Trade size is set at 50-70% of normal and adjusted lightly before and after the index announcement

The profit target is near the midpoint of the range, and the loss target is clearly below the recent low.

Carefully select entry positions during events to prepare for widening spreads

checklist

Check market reaction to Chinese economic indicators and key figures' statements

Check for RBA-related policy stance changes

Check the direction of the U.S. dollar index and stock indices

looking back

Despite some yen buying during the European session, expectations for the inauguration of the Takaichi administration led to a sell-back of the yen and a lack of sense of direction.

summary

Despite the dollar's strong buying power in the early stages of the session, the upward pressure was felt and the market was likely to sell off on the return.

In Europe, hawkish comments by the Bank of Japan temporarily strengthened the yen

The market then rallied again as yen selling due to political factors prevailed.

A wait-and-see mood continued in the U.S. time due to material difficulties

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo fell back after a buying spree, moving up and down in the 150-yen range

The yen strengthened in Europe, but the U.S. dollar was again bought and the market was in a slight movement.

Daily price range was limited and no clear direction was seen

Background & Materials

Hawkish speech by a BOJ advisory board member was seen as material for buying the yen

On the other hand, reports of a coalition government agreement between the LDP and the Japan Restoration Association were a factor in selling the yen.

Prospects of a new Takaichi administration raising expectations of political stability and supporting the dollar-yen

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area just around 150 yen is likely to be considered as support

Returns lined up in the first half of ¥151, acting as the upper limit of the range

Range trading continues with no direction in the short term

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The 152 yen level remains a strong upper resistance zone

Continued to hold at high levels on a daily basis

A clear exit below 150 yen is the turning point for the medium-term trend.

impression

It is easy to be happy or sad about materials, and trading by short term sources is conspicuous.

Limited impact of fundamentals in a movement driven by political factors

Markets are in a wait-and-see attitude as they search for the next clue

trade observations

Buy at the lower end of the range and sell back at the upper end of the range

Keep positions light in the absence of direction and prioritize risk management in the event of sudden changes.

Don't aim for a break.

checklist

Check for additional statements from Bank of Japan officials.

Watching U.S. interest rate trends and the stock market's risk orientation

Assessing the market's reaction to the attack below 150 yen.

looking back

Tokyo time was dominated by buyers, but from Europe to New York, return selling prevailed, confirming the heaviness of the upside.

summary

Overall, there was a lack of materials, and price movements remained directionless.

After the European hour, the upward momentum slowed as sellers returned to the market.

Trading was mixed around the milestone and remained range-bound throughout the day

Ahead of the event, position adjustment was conspicuous.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time started firm with a slight buying trend

Stronger return selling pressure in European hours, restraining upward movement.

NY session lacked direction and remained in a limited price range

Background & Materials

ECB officials' comments were noted, and additional easing was expected to recede.

A wait-and-see attitude prevailed ahead of the European PMI

Intermittent dollar buying linked to U.S. interest rate trends

Movements in major stock markets were also modest, with limited impact on exchange rates

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around the most recent high is likely to be considered as upside resistance

Lower price is supported at the recent low and appears to remain in a range.

Short-term trend continues to lack direction

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Possibly in an uptrend adjustment phase on a daily basis

Weekly firings continue at high levels

Convergence of major moving averages, waiting for next direction

impression

In the absence of significant materials, the event was technically driven.

Markets are cautious ahead of the event and trading is subdued

Limited movement on both the upside and downside, with a wait-and-see mood prevailing

trade observations

In the short term, the market is likely to be beaten to the upside, and the market will be conscious of a return sale.

A price-margin oriented response is more effective than aiming for a break

It is safe to keep your position light until you get a sense of direction.

checklist

Check for additional statements from ECB dignitaries

Focus on Preliminary Eurozone PMI Results and Market Reaction

Check U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index

looking back

Although the Tokyo session was dominated by buyers, the market was dominated by sellers returning to the market from Europe to New York, and the pair moved slightly around 1.34 at the end of the session.

summary

A day with little sense of direction, with a series of ups and downs during the day.

While the prospect of a U.S. rate cut held back the dollar, a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the U.K. index limited the pound's upside.

As a result, the price range was limited, and the movement was mainly in a to-and-fro fashion.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo session continued the trend from the previous weekend, rising to around 1.3420 with short covering.

After the entry of the Europeans, the pound is sold more strongly and pushed back to the 1.3360 level.

In New York, the dollar returned and the pair continued to hover around 1.3400.

Background & Materials

In the U.S., a pause in the rise in long-term interest rates and cautious comments by FOMC members restrained dollar buying.

Trading was limited in the U.K. as positions were adjusted ahead of CPI and other major indices.

European stocks and oil prices also lacked direction, and external factors provided few clues.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around 1.3350 is considered as support to the downside, while the upside is heavy at the 1.3430 level.

The short-term EMA is trending sideways, with limited signs of a trend reversal.

The RSI remains around 50 and continues to move within a range that lacks momentum.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Momentum slowed on a daily basis, although the uptrend line since August was maintained.

The 20-day and 50-day lines are converging, making it difficult to find direction.

A clear break below 1.3300 could lead to a stronger adjustment, but at the moment, the pair is in neutral territory.

impression

A wait-and-see mood was strong, and active trading seemed to be restrained.

It will be interesting to see if UK and US economic indicators in the second half of the week will trigger a trend again.

Overall, price movements were mainly driven by short-term sources, and actual demand flows were limited.

trade observations

The market is suitable for day trading, taking a rebound within a narrow range.

The upward movement is sluggish, and the prevailing sentiment appears to be to return to the market.

Volatility was lower in the short term, and it was a quiet time before the index.

checklist

Confirmation of range maintenance between 1.3350 and 1.3430

Reconfirm the schedule for the release of major indices (U.K. CPI, U.S. PMI)

Watch for interest rate trends and the dollar index after the New York time.

looking back

Although Asian hours were dominated by buying, the pair was pushed back in Europe and closed at around 0.6500 in New York.

summary

Expectations of an easing in trade tensions between the U.S. and China underpinned the Australian dollar, which also benefited from the weakening dollar.

However, the stagnant resource market and uncertainty about the outlook for Australian employment and policy were perceived as factors restraining upward movement.

As a result, there was no clear directional movement and the pair remained in a range around 0.6500.

Today's Price Movement

The Tokyo session was dominated by buying, with the pair recovering to the 0.6500 level once.

The pair was temporarily pushed back to around 0.6450 from the low 0.6500s in European hours.

In New York, the pair was bought again and rallied to around 0.6500, closing at a higher level.

Background & Materials

Expectations for a resumption of dialogue on trade between the U.S. and China emerged, providing a tailwind for risky currencies such as the Australian dollar.

On the other hand, weak employment data in Australia and weak resource prices have raised concerns about the outlook for policy rates.

The softness in the dollar index and the move to hold back on the dollar supported the Australian dollar in some respects, but not enough to create a clear trend.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The pair continues to struggle within the range of 0.6450-0.6500, and a cautious approach is required to break through.

It has been noted that the area around short-term moving averages (e.g., EMA50) may offer upside resistance.

There are observations that the RSI and others are overheated, and attention should be paid to the risk of adjustment from a sharp rise.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

On a daily basis, the price is said to be in the process of forming a declining channel and is in a medium-term range to the downside caution until an upward break.

The 0.6400 area is considered a downside guideline, while the 0.6645 area is considered an upside guideline for the time being.

Trend reversal may be triggered depending on the trend of resource prices and the comments of the Central Bank of Australia (RBA).

impression

Today's market seemed to be in a "range waiting for materials," with limited movement in either direction.

Improved risk appetite and a softening dollar have been supportive of the Australian dollar, but have yet to translate them into a clear uptrend.

Going forward, Australian employment and China-related data and policy statements could be one turning point.

trade observations

In day trading, this is a situation where trading is mainly based on the 0.6450-0.6500 range.

It is easy to see the trend of selling on the return and buying at the push point, and it is realistic to stick to the policy of taking small price gaps when it is difficult to see the direction.

However, there is a possibility that the range could be broken out in the event of sudden policy or economic developments, so stop setting and risk management should be carefully considered.

checklist

Sequential price movement within the 0.6450-0.6500 range.

Understand the schedule for the release of major economic indicators for China, Australia, and the U.S.

Monitor resource prices (especially iron ore, etc.) and the dollar index (DXY).