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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | September Trade Statistics (Customs Clearance Base, Before Seasonal Adjustment) | Graph Display | |||||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | September Trade Statistics (Customs Clearance, Quarterly) | Graph Display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | September Consumer Price Index (CPI) [MoM] | Graph Display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | September Consumer Price Index (CPI) [yoy] | Graph Display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | September Consumer Price Index (CPI Core Index) [yoy] | Graph Display |
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| type | Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇪🇺 Europe | European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde, remarks |
Today's Outlook
The previous day, USDJPY saw the yen weaken against the backdrop of expectations for fiscal expansion following the birth of the Takaichi administration. Today, while continuing this trend, a lull in the rally is likely to lead to profit-taking. While the U.S. interest rate trend will continue to support the U.S. dollar, we also need to pay attention to price movements with a view to adjustment in the short term.
The previous day, the dollar continued to buy on the back of firmness in U.S. interest rates, which led to a downward trend from European hours to New York. In the short term, the dollar was able to pull back below the 1.16 level, but the return was limited. The dollar is expected to continue to lead the market today.
From Tokyo to Europe, the pound was sold off first, and the dollar was bought with the firmness of U.S. interest rates. On the other hand, there were also signs of buying back at the lower levels, and there were some downside moves. Today, in addition to the trend of the dollar, position adjustments ahead of UK fiscal indicators will also attract attention. Overall, the market is expected to search for a sense of direction within a short-term range.
On the previous day, selling prevailed through European hours, but some buyers returned to the market at lower prices, and the market was reluctant to move lower. Today, the market is expected to keep a close eye on U.S. interest rates and resource-related developments, while searching for a sense of direction within a short-term range.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
Today's USD/JPY cues were limited due to a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the BOJ meeting and domestic price indexes, as well as a lack of direction in U.S. interest rates. In Tokyo, yen buying was led by safe-haven sentiment, followed by a mixture of returns and pushes in both Europe and New York. Both upside and downside moves did not last, and in general, the day lacked a sense of direction as the market remained within the range of adjustment.
Selling prevailed in the second half of the day in Europe as investors became aware of the resilience of U.S. interest rates and the sluggish growth of eurozone indicators. In New York, on the other hand, buyers took back all of the downward movement on the back of higher stock prices and position adjustments. Finally, the market closed slightly higher.
The previous day, the pound-dollar was sold off after the U.K. consumer price index came in below market expectations. In European hours, the pound fell all the way down and even fell below the milestone at one point, but in New York, buyers returned to the market on the back of higher stock prices and a lull in the dollar. As a result, the pair regained most of its downward momentum and closed the session lacking a sense of direction in the closing stages. Overall, the day was dominated by adjustments after temporary price movements in response to the index results.
The market was limited to a small range overall, although it swung up and down amid a lack of materials. In the European session, the market was dominated by sellers returning to the market, and in New York, position adjustment led to a buyback. In the last part of the session, the price was trading around the price milestone, and the sense of direction was limited.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The yen weakened against the backdrop of expectations for fiscal expansion with the birth of the Takaichi administration, and the dollar-yen exchange rate remained at a high level
Assumed range
Around 151.00-152.30
tactics
Basic stance is to buy at the push, but be cautious about chasing higher prices
Assuming a short-term adjustment phase, we want to see how the market reacts around the milestone.
trigger
A break above 152.30 could strengthen momentum toward a weaker yen again.
A break below 151.00 signals the start of a short-term adjustment
Key figures' statements in the morning in Tokyo and developments in U.S. long-term interest rates are likely to be short-term turning points.
override condition
If the price clearly falls below 151.00 and holds on a closing basis, the push-buy strategy is temporarily off the table.
Refrain from pursuing higher prices even if risk-off sentiment strengthens due to lower U.S. interest rates and falling stock prices
risk event
National CPI (September) to be announced on 10/23
U.S. initial unemployment insurance applications and other major indicators
Statements and intervention warning comments by foreign exchange authorities and government officials
Position Management
Entry should be at the push around 151.20-151.50
Profit is expected to be near 152.20 and loss is expected to be below 150.80.
Keep position size at 50-70% of normal and prioritize adjustments before the event
checklist
Check to see if the push around 151.00 can be maintained
Check the direction of U.S. interest rates and the dollar index
Pay attention to foreign exchange statements by government and BOJ officials
Market Summary
Dollar buying prevails on the back of firmness in U.S. interest rates, putting downward pressure on the Eurodollar.
In the short term, the market was seen to move lower below 1.16, but the return remained limited
Assumed range
Around 1.1550-1.1650
tactics
Basic stance is to focus on selling on the return, and respond cautiously to a rebound at higher prices.
Even if a short-term adjustment rally comes in, be aware of selling pressure again in the resistance zone
trigger
Short-term return test above 1.1600
Downward momentum is likely to strengthen below 1.1550
Key figures' statements and US interest rate trends in European hours may be a turning point
override condition
Forego a return strategy if 1.1650 is clearly broken above and maintained on a closing basis
Suspend the strategy even if U.S. interest rates fall sharply and the dollar is selling off
risk event
U.S. CPI to be announced on 10/24 (re-release)
U.S. initial unemployment insurance claims and other employment-related data
Statements by ECB Board members and other key figures (e.g., Vice President De Guindos)
Position Management
Entry is considered selling on the return around 1.1600-1.1620
The profit stop is around 1.1550 and the loss stop is above 1.1650.
Position size is about 50-70% of normal, with reduced support before events
checklist
Confirmation of whether or not the range of 1.1550-1.1650 can be maintained.
Check the direction of U.S. long-term interest rates and the dollar index
Check out what ECB officials said and the market reaction
Market Summary
The day before, the pound was sold predominantly against the backdrop of UK fiscal concerns, and the dollar continued to be bought
Buying activity was seen at the lower end of the range, and the price was bouncing back down in the low 1.33s.
Assumed range
Around 1.3340-1.3500
tactics
For the time being, focus on return sales and carefully consider entry at the upper resistance zone.
Assume rotational trading within the range while being aware of short-term buybacks at lower prices
trigger
A break above 1.3500 may strengthen the return test
Downward momentum is increasing with a break below 1.3340.
Watch for UK fiscal headlines and US interest rate trends scheduled for European time
override condition
A clear break above 1.3500 and holding on a closing basis would put the return scenario on hold.
Strategy needs to be revised even as concerns about UK finances recede and risk appetite grows
risk event
UK fiscal-related reports and statements by key government officials
U.S. existing home sales and weekly unemployment insurance claims
Speculation on the re-release of the U.S. CPI the following day
Position Management
Entry is considered for a return around 1.3460-1.3480
Gains are based on gains around 1.3360 and losses above 1.3520.
Keep position size at 50-70% of normal and prioritize risk mitigation before events
checklist
Check to see if the 1.3340-1.3500 range can be maintained.
Check the direction of U.S. interest rates and the dollar index
Watch for UK fiscal news and statements from key figures
Market Summary
On the previous day, the Australian dollar was sold predominantly in the European time zone, but the price was bounced back at the lower end of the range.
Overall, the market is still in a range of adjustment, and it is difficult to get a clear sense of direction.
Assumed range
Around 0.6450 to 0.6520
tactics
For the time being, range rotation will be the basic policy, with a focus on selling on the upside and buying on the downside in the short term.
Flexibility is required to take advantage of short-term swings in the flow of waiting for materials.
trigger
A break above 0.6520 could strengthen the return test.
Downward pressure is likely again at a break below 0.6450.
Fluctuations in U.S. interest rates and commodity prices (iron ore and gold) are likely to trigger short-term
override condition
A clear break above 0.6520 on a closing basis would put the return strategy on hold.
Downside assumptions are also invalidated if U.S. interest rates fall sharply and dollar sales prevail.
risk event
U.S. existing home sales and weekly unemployment insurance claims
Resource related news (especially iron ore prices and Chinese economic indicators)
Adjustment of positions in preparation for the re-release of the U.S. CPI the following day
Position Management
Entry is considered for a return around 0.6500-0.6510
Gains are based on gains around 0.6460 and losses above 0.6530.
Keep position size to 50-70% of normal before an event, and watch out for slippage when liquidity declines.
checklist
Check to see if the 0.6450-0.6520 range can be maintained.
Watch the direction of U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Check resource market fluctuations (iron ore and gold)
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
Today's USD/JPY ranged slightly amid a wait-and-see mood ahead of the BOJ meeting and domestic price indexes
summary
In Asia time, the yen was temporarily bought by safe asset oriented buyers, but later recovered as buyers returned to the market.
From Europe to New York, the market continued to move slightly back and forth in response to U.S. interest rates and stock price movements.
The development lacked a sense of direction and remained within the range of adjustment
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time was dominated by yen buying, which was temporarily pushed back at times
Buying back in after European hours, trading in the range again in New York
The price remained in a narrow range centered around the 151 yen level at the end of the day
Background & Materials
In Japan, expectations for economic measures by the Takaichi administration and checks and balances by the Ministry of Finance are mixed.
In the U.S., government agency closures delayed the release of key statistics, and interest rates lacked direction
Ahead of the weekend's national CPI, a wait-and-see approach before the BOJ meeting was strengthened.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The upside is likely to be in the vicinity of 152 yen, which will likely lead to a return sale.
Lower price is supported at around 151 yen, and the focus in the short term is on maintaining the lower end of the range
Volatility is declining, mainly due to short-term trading
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Direction is not clear as the market continues to hover around the 20-day moving average
Weekly trend remains on an upward trend, but the ¥152 level barrier is likely to be conscious
Temporary adjustment may intensify if the price falls below the 150-yen level
impression
Markets quiet ahead of policy event, limited price movement
Wary of intervention has been a constant restraining factor.
Many participants were eager to see what would happen after the event.
trade observations
Short-term trading is useful for small rotations after confirming the reaction of the upper and lower range limits
Not a good time to take a large position and avoid times of low liquidity.
There is a decision to lighten the position in preparation for after the event passes.
checklist
Focus on key figures' statements and reports before the BOJ meeting.
Confirmation of linkage between U.S. interest rates and stock prices
Determine if the range of 151-152 yen can be maintained.
looking back
Euro sales were dominated in the second half of the day in Europe, but in New York, the euro was bought back and closed slightly higher.
summary
Temporary dollar buying weighed by firmness in U.S. interest rates and sluggish growth in eurozone indicators
In New York, the dollar's upside was weighed down by stock market rises and position adjustments, while the euro held its ground.
Overall, the day was characterized by ups and downs, but lacked a sense of direction.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time was slow, with return selling prevailing from the beginning of Europe
Downward pressure strengthened in the second half of the day in Europe, but the downside was eliminated in New York as buyers returned to the market.
The wait-and-see attitude was again strengthened at the end of the day, and the market closed in slightly positive territory.
Background & Materials
Sluggish growth in Eurozone business and price indicators and fears of an economic slowdown triggered euro selling.
In the U.S., the government agency shutdown has postponed the release of key statistics, limiting material for the dollar
Dollar Adjustment in New York as Risk Assets Recover
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside is likely to be restrained around the moving average line, and selling pressure will be felt on the return
Lower prices are supported by the previous day's low level and remain in a range in the short term
Volatility slightly lower, direction still in search phase
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Daily form testing short-term return in a downtrend
Continued to move below the medium-term moving average, with heavy upside in the return phase
Failure to cross psychological milestones, downward pressure remains
impression
Lack of new materials in both the U.S. and Europe, overall movement within the range of adjustment
Position adjustment-driven price movements are conspicuous, and no clear trend has been formed.
Markets are entering a quiet period in anticipation of upcoming policy events
trade observations
In the short term, the focus is on selling back at the upper end of the range and buying at the lower end of the range.
Given the decline in volatility, it is safe to take a cautious approach by holding down position sizes.
While waiting for the resumption of index releases and key figures' statements, it is preferable not to chase them forcibly.
checklist
Check Eurozone PMI and CPI related headlines
Watch for any change in the linkage between U.S. interest rates and stock prices
Check for signals indicating a change in the medium-term trend
looking back
Selling of the pound was dominated by lower-than-expected CPI in the U.K., but buyers returned to the market in New York and the downward trend was eliminated.
summary
Pound plunged in European hours on the back of inflation indicator results, accelerating selling mainly by short-term sources
In New York, the dollar paused and stock market gains supported short-covering
As a result, it maintained the previous day's low and closed with a lack of direction at the end of the day.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time is small with a wait-and-see attitude
Weak CPI results early in the European session led to stronger declines and a temporary break below the milestone.
In New York, the market rebounded on the back of dollar selling and higher stock prices, returning to within the range.
Background & Materials
UK CPI falls short of market expectations, rekindling speculation of a rate cut before the end of the year
On the U.S. side, there will be limited index releases, and short-term trading will be focused on interest rate and stock price movements.
Uncertainty about the policy outlook led to continued price movements led by the adjustment of shareholdings
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Reversal after the sharp drop almost wiped out the intraday range and the direction returned to neutral
Upside is likely to be restrained around the short-term moving average, and selling pressure remains
Lower price rebounded near the previous day's low and is considered as short-term support
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Downward trend still prevails on a daily basis
Selling pressure is likely to remain in the return phase and there are insufficient materials for a trend reversal
In the medium term, the market will form a holding pattern at the low end of the range.
impression
Adjustment-led development after momentary pound selling following CPI results
Trends in U.S. interest rates and stock markets will be key to clarifying direction
Markets are increasingly waiting for events, led by short-term price movements
trade observations
In the short term, the level of return sales will be considered.
With the continuing rebound after sharp fluctuations, it is safe to keep positions light.
Short-term buying will be considered after confirming lower price support.
checklist
Confirmation of UK inflation-related indicators and key figures' statements
Watch for developments in U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Determine the timing of entry by identifying the contraction and expansion phases of volatility
looking back
While the market swung up and down amid a lack of materials, it remained in a small range on the whole.
summary
No new economic indicators from Australia, markets lacked clues on monetary policy
U.S. interest rates swings were also small, and the currency exchange rate was directionless.
After a predominant sell-back in Europe, buy-backs proceeded in New York due to position adjustments.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time: small movements continued within the previous day's range and the mood was wait-and-see
Dollar buying dominance in European hours pushes the market lower, but buyers are buying back at the lower levels.
In New York, buybacks prevailed as interest rates settled and approached the upper end of the range
Background & Materials
Lack of new material in Australia; Reserve Bank of Australia's policy observations pause
In the U.S., the release of some indicators was delayed and trading materials were generally scarce
Commodity markets were mixed, with limited price movement in the Australian dollar
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Stalemate market with awareness of upper and lower range limits
No clear direction as the market continues to move around the short-term moving averages
Volatility is declining, waiting for the next trend
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Still within the range in the medium term
Signs of trend reversal scarce, focus on confirming support and resistance
Volume is also on a downward trend, and the market is waiting for materials to make a clear breakout.
impression
A day of wait-and-see tone in both Australia and the U.S., with a lack of new clues
Market attention is shifting to future trends in U.S. interest rates and risk assets.
Quiet price environment likely to continue for the time being
trade observations
In the short term, the company is conscious of selling back at the upper end of the range and buying at the lower end of the range.
It is safe to limit position size during periods of declining volatility.
Strategy to avoid over-positioning is appropriate as we wait for material
checklist
Check the schedule of major indices for Australia and the U.S.
Understand the direction of commodity markets (iron ore, gold, and crude oil)
Observe volume and reaction near upper and lower range limits
FX Diary