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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πͺπΊ Europe | β | October Consumer Confidence (Preliminary) | Graph Display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | September: Number of existing home sales [annualized]. | Graph Display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | September: Number of used homes sold [month-over-month] | Graph Display |
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day was a day lacking in a sense of direction, as the market remained within the range of adjustment while keeping an eye on the trend of U.S. interest rates. Today, buyers have been in the lead from early Tokyo time, and the yen has been weakening slightly. Overall, the market is likely to find a balance between continued dollar strength and adjustment against the backdrop of policy expectations and interest rate trends.
On the previous day, selling prevailed in the second half of the day in Europe against the backdrop of firmness in U.S. interest rates and sluggish growth in European indicators. In New York, on the other hand, buybacks were preceded by a stock market rally and position adjustments. Some believe that the market is approaching a level where it is likely to sell off on the way back, and we will have to wait and see how strong the selling pressure is and whether the market will attack the milestone area or not.
The previous day, GBPUSD was dominated by pound selling after the UK consumer price index came in below market expectations. The price fell all the way down in European hours, but in New York, it almost regained its downward movement as buying returned against the backdrop of higher stock prices and a lull in the dollar. Today, we will see whether the selling will intensify again or whether the market will remain resilient.
On the previous day, the AUDUSD was up and down amid a lack of materials, but remained in a small range overall. There were no new economic indicators released in Australia, and speculation about monetary policy has eased off. The wait-and-see mood is likely to continue today. The focus today will be on which way interest rates and stock markets move in order to get a sense of direction.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
Dollar buying prevailed throughout the day in Tokyo against the backdrop of expectations for economic measures by the new administration of Takaichi. The dollar remained firm through European trading hours, and in New York, it broke above last week's highs and temporarily rose to the upper 152-yen level. However, profit-taking selling was seen around the Pivot R3 area, confirming the heaviness of the upside. Overall, the day was marked by a strong dollar/weak yen trend, but also by a series of offensives and defenses around the milestone.
The price continued to search for lower prices from Tokyo to Europe, but it recovered somewhat in the New York time as buyers started to buy back. Still, the price did not reach the previous day's high, and the return was limited. Overall, the day was marked by a lack of new materials, and price movements continued without a sense of direction.
During the Tokyo session, the market was pushed down by buyers, but the momentum was weak, and the pair struggled with little sense of direction. In the London time, the recovery was slow and the market was aware of the heavy upward pressure, but in the New York time, dollar buying gained the upper hand and the pair tested the previous day's low, but closed with a small movement as if time ran out at the end of trading.
Buyers were aware of the underlying support in the resource market even as U.S. interest rates remained at a high level, and buying was prevalent from the European hours. The market tested the previous day's high, but stalled at one point, confirming the heaviness of the upside. Later, in the New York time, buying was again strong, and the price slightly exceeded the previous day's high. The market closed the day maintaining the highs at the end of the day, and as a whole, the day was marked by firmness.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day was marked by a strong sense of adjustment, keeping a close eye on U.S. interest rates, and the market continued to lack a sense of direction.
Today, the yen is seen to swing slightly lower with buying dominating from early Tokyo time.
While the overall trend is for the dollar to remain strong, caution is required as the momentum of the rally may slow down at times
Assumed range
Assuming a range centered around 151.0-152.2
The upside is likely to be a return sale in front of the 152 yen level, while the downside is likely to be a push to buy at around 151 yen.
A wait-and-see mood may prevail from Asian hours to early Europe
tactics
Basis is mainly push-buying, with short-term rotation in mind
Focus on picking up at lower prices, not following rapid yen buying
Cool to temporary fluctuations caused by US interest rates and Japanese authorities' statements
trigger
A break above 152.2 is likely to strengthen the buying trend.
Short-term adjustment may accelerate at a break below 151.0
US long-term interest rates and stock price movements after European hours are the key to price movements.
override condition
A clear break below the 150-yen level would break the dollar's bias toward strength.
Buying momentum is likely to be dampened if there are statements of checks and balances on the exchange rate from the authorities
Review strategy if risk aversion factors prevail over interest rate differential factors
risk event
Trends in U.S. economic indicators postponed or resumption of announcements (impact of government agency closures)
On the Japanese side, speculation on the 24th National CPI
Statements by authorities and key figures, changes in U.S. interest rates
Position Management
Position size is controlled to 50-70% of normal
Profit should be around 152.0 and stop-loss should be below 150.8
Consider lightening the position after the event passes.
checklist
Check the direction of U.S. interest rates and the dollar index
Note what the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan officials have said.
Confirmation that price movements in the Asian and European time zones will continue into New York
Market Summary
On the previous day, selling prevailed in the second half of the day in Europe, and in New York, buying back was driven by higher stock prices and position adjustments.
Today, the market is seen as approaching a level at which it is likely to sell off on returns, and attention is focused on the defense of the milestone area.
An environment in which interest rates and risk appetite continue to swing, making it difficult to find a sense of direction, but short-term swings are likely to occur
Assumed range
Assuming a range centered around 1.1550-1.1650
On the upside, watch for a stall in the return near 1.1650.
The lower side is around 1.1550 to see if there is a push
tactics
Basis is to sell back to the market while using range rotation
Short-term rebound is considered entry by pulling back to the resistance zone
If the break lacks momentum, do not pursue it too deeply and focus on rotation.
trigger
A break above 1.1650 would bring us to a continuation of the return test scenario.
Prefer scenario of resumption of downward pressure below 1.1550.
Key figures' statements in the European hour and the direction of U.S. interest rates in early New York are likely to be the turning points.
override condition
If the price remains above 1.1650 on a closing basis, the return assumption will be revised.
Neutralized if U.S. interest rates fall and stock prices rise simultaneously and dollar sales prevail
risk event
Headlines from ECB key figures and European indicators
Speculation on U.S. data, including U.S. CPI re-publication and weekly employment-related data
Fluctuations in statistical schedules and delays in announcements due to partial closure of government agencies
Position Management
Start at 50-70% of normal size and lighten before the event.
For gains, be aware of splitting before milestones such as 1.1580 and 1.1620.
Stop-loss is set just outside the level at which the basis for entry is lost.
checklist
Confirmation of whether the range of 1.1550-1.1650 can be maintained
See if the direction of U.S. long-term interest rates and stock futures match.
Inspect the frequency of ECB-related headlines and market reaction
Market Summary
The day before, the UK's consumer price index came in below market expectations, leading to a sell-off in the pound.
After falling in Europe, buyers returned to the market in New York and reduced the downward trend.
Overall, the direction of the market is limited due to a mixture of return selling and push-buying.
Assumed range
Assuming a range centered around 1.2600-1.2750
The upside is likely to be around 1.2750 and the downside around 1.2600.
The ground is easily linked to the movement of U.S. interest rates and stock prices
tactics
Basis is to sell back and rotate within the range
It is safer to wait for a return than to pick up shallow pushes.
Adjust positions lightly as price movements may be rough before and after the event
trigger
A break above 1.2750 would indicate a continuation of the short-term return
Sell-dominant ground is likely to tilt back below 1.2600.
Developments in European time statements and resumption of U.S. indices will trigger a change in direction.
override condition
If the price holds above 1.2750 at the close, we will revise our return strategy.
Neutralized if UK fiscal headlines strengthen the pound's bid
Consolidate short-term positions when risk aversion strengthens dollar buying
risk event
Scheduled U.S. CPI re-release and U.S. interest rate trends
Release of statistics related to UK finances and statements by key figures
Index delays and market speculation due to partial closure of U.S. government agencies
Position Management
Keep size to 50-70% of normal
The profit margin is set to be split just before the upper end of the range, and the stop loss is set to be just below 1.2600.
Lighten positions and limit risk before an event
checklist
Confirming the direction of U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Check frequency and reaction to UK fiscal headlines
Watch for continuation of European pound cross trend into New York
Market Summary
The day before, the market remained in a small range, swinging up and down due to a lack of clear-cut materials
No new economic indicators on the Australian side and a pause in monetary policy speculation
Overall, the market remains in a wait-and-see attitude due to a lack of direction.
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 0.6440-0.6520
The upside is likely to be around 0.6520 and the downside around 0.6440.
Little sense of direction but minor swings within the range are expected
tactics
Basis is range rotation with flexible push-buying and return selling
Focus on short-term trading and be agile until a clear trend emerges.
Conscious of taking small gains at milestones on both the upside and downside to see how they react.
trigger
A break above 0.6520 is likely to raise awareness of a short-term return test.
Downward bias strengthens slightly below 0.6440.
Movements in U.S. interest rates and stock prices are likely to be triggered after European hours
override condition
If the price remains above 0.6520 on a closing basis, the return strategy will be reviewed
Neutralize if positive headlines related to Australia or China strengthen the Australian dollar
If the volume is clearly outside the range, switch to a wait-and-see approach.
risk event
Market reaction to the scheduled re-release of the U.S. CPI
Reports on China-related indicators and foreign trade
Increased volatility in the U.S. stock market
Position Management
Position size is controlled to 50-60% of normal
Interest rate is considered to be split before 0.6500 or around 0.6460
Stop-losses are set outside the level clearly above the recent high and low.
checklist
Check to see if the direction of U.S. interest rates and stock indexes match
Regularly check relevant Australian and Chinese headlines
Observe whether the range will continue to hold as it flows from Tokyo time to European time
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
Dollar buying prevailed on the back of expectations for economic measures by the new Takaichi administration, and the dollar rose to the upper 152-yen level, but the upward pressure was confirmed near the milestone.
summary
A day of consistent dollar strength and yen weakness continued from Tokyo time
Breaking through last week's highs to raise awareness of the upward trend
Short-term adjustments were also seen around Pivot R3 due to profit-taking selling
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time: Yen selling off due to anticipation of stimulus measures by the Takaichi administration
In European hours, the yen remained at 152 on the back of high U.S. interest rates
The price rose to around 152.70 during the New York session, then fell back slightly to close
Background & Materials
Reports that the Japanese government is considering major economic stimulus measures were a factor in the yen sell-off
The priority of supporting the economy rather than curbing inflation was confirmed, and speculation about prolonging monetary easing spread.
In the U.S., long-term interest rates remained in the 4.6% range, supporting the dollar.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The recent upside target is around 152.80.
151.60-151.80 is considered as a support zone
RSI is slightly higher, but still in a strong trend
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Approaching the upper limit of the ascending channel on a daily basis
The 20-day moving average (approx. 150.80) acts as medium-term support
Momentum remains strong with a temporary break above the upper Bollinger Band
impression
Policy expectations led the yen sell-off, but until the actual details of the measures become clear, the market is unlikely to be biased in one direction.
Remaining caution about currency intervention, caution is required in pursuit of higher prices
trade observations
Buying and holding at the second half of 152 yen is a situation where profit taking should be prioritized.
Short-term trading is effective at the push point while confirming support in the upper 151-yen range
Be aware of liquidity decline before and after the event.
checklist
Confirmation of the schedule for announcing the specifics of Japan's economic stimulus measures
Focus on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy-related statements
Continue to monitor US interest rate trends and changes in risk appetite
looking back
Selling was predominant from Tokyo to Europe, but in New York, buying returned and the market rallied slightly.
summary
Dollar buying dominates in the early going, with the euro falling
Buying back in NY time, but upside is limited
Overall lack of direction amid material difficulties
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo session lacked momentum, with slightly higher prices
Dollar buying continued through European hours, weakening the euro
Temporary buyback in NY session, but stalled out without reaching new highs
Background & Materials
U.S. long-term interest rates remained high and the dollar continued to buy
Risk aversion spread due to concerns about prolonged U.S.-China trade friction and the U.S. government shutdown.
A wait-and-see attitude prevailed in trading amid a lack of new material ahead of Eurozone business confidence indicators
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside is heavy near the previous day's high, with return selling prevailing
Lower prices were supported by recent lows and continued to hold.
Short-term direction is scarce and equilibrium continues
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Daily form testing a small return in a downtrend
Moving averages are moving sideways and there is no clear turning sign
Momentum weak, but not overly oversold
impression
The market as a whole lacked new materials, and the impression was that price movements were centered on short-term sources.
While the dollar's strength is being recognized, there are no decisive indicators on the euro side, and the market remains quiet.
Market participants are shifting their attention to upcoming economic indicators and policy statements
trade observations
Repeatedly selling back at highs and buying back at lows is effective
New entries at the halfway point are risky and should be handled with caution.
It is safe to keep positions light until the next index release.
checklist
Check the schedule for the release of the Eurozone Business Confidence Index and price-related indicators.
Focus on U.S. interest rate trends and trade-related reports
Confirmation of reactions around key technical levels
looking back
In Tokyo, buyers pushed the dollar to the previous day's low, but the momentum was not strong enough.
summary
A small return was tested at the beginning of the session, but the overall movement lacked a sense of direction
Heavy upside was felt through the London time, with return selling prevailing.
A downward push was tested in the New York time, but it did not lead to a major breakthrough and closed the trading session.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time is supported by push-buying, but the price range is limited
In European hours, sellers continued to sell back, dragging down the previous day's selling pressure
Tested lower in New York amid a strong dollar trend, but closed with a small move at the end of the day
Background & Materials
The previous day's lower-than-expected CPI in the U.K. raised awareness of the possibility of a rate cut
In the U.S., high interest rates and trade friction reports support the dollar.
A wait-and-see mood prevailed throughout the market ahead of the release of major indices
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The upside is heavy near the recent return highs, a level where return selling is a concern.
Lower prices were reluctant to move lower near the previous day's lows, and the price movement was within a range.
Short-term indicators remained weak and the market lacked momentum
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Moderate downtrend continues on a daily basis
The slope of the moving average has flattened out and there is no clear trend reversal
Bollinger Bands are converging and the price range is shrinking
impression
The pound continued to move higher against the backdrop of slowing inflation
Markets are cautiously awaiting U.S. economic indicators and the outlook for monetary policy in the U.K.
Until the next event, the environment is likely to remain a mixture of wait-and-see and short-term adjustments
trade observations
Limited upside potential, with a tendency to sell back to the market in the short term
Buybacks are likely to occur at the lows, and the phase of short-term reverse trend will be recognized.
A strategy of keeping positions light is effective in a lack of direction
checklist
Check the schedule of U.K. economic indicators and BOE officials' statements
Watch for trends in U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Confirm reaction at major support and resistance levels
looking back
Buying was dominant from the European time, and the market closed at a higher level, slightly renewing the previous day's highs in the New York time, despite a temporary stall.
summary
AUD firm on support from resource markets
Buybacks prevail even amid dollar buying pressure from high U.S. interest rates
Overall, a cautious mood continues to prevail while testing the upside
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time was small and lacked a sense of direction
Buying strengthened in European hours on the back of firming resource prices.
In NY time, after forming a push once, it rallied again and slightly renewed the high
Background & Materials
Dollar strength pauses somewhat even as U.S. long-term interest rates remain high
With the prospect of additional interest rate hikes receding in Australia, a wait-and-see attitude on the monetary policy front
Continued stimulus measures in China and firming resource prices supported the Australian dollar.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The upper price is conscious near the previous day's high, and after breaking through, there are scattered profit-taking sales.
Lower prices are supported by the recent low price range, making it easy to buy at the lower end of the range.
Short-term uptrend line holds and momentum remains moderate
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Daily trend remains above the 20-day moving average, maintaining a gradual upward trend
The price is near the upper end of the medium-term range and is struggling to find a direction.
Approaching the upper limit of Bollinger Bands and a slowdown in momentum
impression
The Australian dollar remained relatively stable amid a pause in dollar strength and resilient resource prices
In the absence of new policy materials and economic indicators, position adjustment-driven price movements were conspicuous.
Overall, a quiet uptrend reflecting market participants' risk tolerance
trade observations
Beware of short-term profit-taking during upward price action
Short-term buying is effective while confirming the support zone at the time of push formation
Avoid unreasonable position expansion in pre-event range trading
checklist
Check the schedule of economic indicators for Australia and China
Watch developments in U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Confirmation of correlation with changes in major resource prices (copper and iron ore)
FX Diary