Market Summary

With the yen continuing to weaken against the backdrop of expectations of economic measures by the Takaichi administration and the US interest rates remaining high, the dollar is hovering in the upper 152-yen range and is conscious of attacking the milestone

Assumed range

Around 151.80-153.00

tactics

Maintain a buy-and-hold stance and take a cautious approach, prioritizing profit-taking at higher prices.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above around 153.00 would strengthen the buying trend

On the downside, a break below 151.80 may lead to further adjustment.

Pay attention to fluctuations in U.S. interest rates and the timing of key figures' statements.

override condition

Clearly below the mid ¥151 level, confirming a pause in the upward trend if it is established at the close

If yen buying flows strengthen due to sudden risk aversion or intervention warnings

risk event

Policy-related reports on Japan's national CPI results

Release of U.S. durable goods orders and consumption-related indicators

Observations and key figures' statements on next week's BOJ meeting

Position Management

Split entries for upward price chasing, and be aware of profit taking at the time of a sharp rise.

Push-buying is handled in small increments by checking the support zone

Losses are strictly managed based on a break below the 151 yen level.

checklist

Check for new reports on Japan's economic measures

Watch for developments in U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index

Confirm the impact of BOJ-related statements and reports on the market

Market Summary

The previous day lacked a sense of direction, and the Eurodollar continued to hover in a narrow range.

Preliminary German and Eurozone PMI readings and U.S. interest rate trends will be in focus today, and depending on the results, either the upper or lower end of the range may be tested.

Overall, the market is focused on short-term price movements as it waits for events

Assumed range

Around 1.0600-1.0680

tactics

Based on range rotation, with flexibility in preparation for short-term breaks

It is safe to hold positions until the European PMI is released and enter after confirming the results.

Short-term forces will mainly respond to the reverse trend near the upper and lower limits

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above around 1.0680 may strengthen the buyback

On the downside, the dollar is likely to be dominated by dollar buying below 1.0600, and the adjustment is likely to spread

Preliminary European PMI and U.S. interest rate moves will trigger a short-term trend change

override condition

Short-term break scenario temporarily invalid if the market remains flat all day around 1.0650

If European and U.S. indices settle around market expectations and volatility is extremely low

If the dollar index remains virtually unchanged from the previous day and continues to lose direction

risk event

Preliminary German and Eurozone PMI's released

U.S. durable goods orders and consumption-related indicators released

Statements made by ECB officials and Fed officials

Position Management

Trading within a range is based on managing positions in small lots and closing them in the short term.

When an up or down breakout occurs, split entries are utilized while assessing momentum.

Set stop-losses at 20 to 30 pips and avoid going too deep until you get a sense of direction.

checklist

Confirmation of Preliminary German and Eurozone PMI Results and Market Reaction

Watch developments in U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index

ECB and Fed officials' statements to confirm their impact on short-term trends

Market Summary

The previous day continued to lack a sense of direction, with the pound dollar remaining in a range

Weak U.K. CPI results weighed on expectations of a rate cut, while high U.S. interest rates also supported the dollar

Fewer indicators to be announced today, so the focus will be on the movement from the European time onward.

Assumed range

Around 1.2600-1.2700

tactics

Hard to see a clear trend, mainly short-term trading based on range rotation

Aiming for a return to the market, but cautiously aiming to buy on the downside.

We need to see if there are signs of a break during the liquidity expansion phase in European hours.

trigger

On the upside, a break above around 1.2700 could activate short-term buybacks.

Downside is selling pressure below 1.2600, room for more short-term adjustment.

Preliminary European PMI readings and US interest rate trends may trigger

override condition

Break scenario temporarily invalid if the price remains flat all day around 1.2650

Volatility declines as key figures' statements and economic indicators settle around market expectations

If the dollar index remains almost unchanged from the previous day and continues to lack direction

risk event

UK economic indicators and statements from BoE officials

U.S. durable goods orders and consumer spending indicators

Geopolitical reports influencing long-term U.S. interest rate fluctuations and market sentiment

Position Management

Moderate position sizes for in-range trading

Utilize split entries and avoid excessive positions until the break is confirmed

Set stop-losses at 20 to 30 pips and give priority to short-term settlements until a sense of direction emerges.

checklist

UK CPI Aftermath Confirms Change in BoE Rate Cut Observations

Watching the preliminary European PMI data and U.S. interest rate trends closely

Confirmation of reaction around the main range levels (1.2600 and 1.2700)

ChatGPT:.

Market Summary

Although the previous day was dominated by buyers, the market was unable to clearly break out of the range and remained in small movements.

Even with U.S. interest rates hovering at a high level, the downside is limited due to the resilience of the resource market

Today will be a day of searching for direction amid material difficulties

Assumed range

Around 0.6520 to 0.6590

tactics

Conscious of trading based on range rotation as no clear trend is seen

Flexibility in both short-term push-back and return selling

When a break occurs, confirm the volume and time frame before considering entry

trigger

To the upside, buybacks may prevail if the pair breaks above around 0.6600

Downside selling strengthens below 0.6520, with a short-term adjustment in mind.

Fluctuations in U.S. interest rates and resource prices are likely triggers to leave the range.

override condition

Short-term trades are unlikely to be established if the price remains flat all day around 0.6550 and volume declines

If the dollar index remains less than 1% change from the previous day, it is difficult to get a sense of direction

If the Chinese market is closed or lacks materials and commodity markets are quiet

risk event

Preliminary PMIs for Australia and China

U.S. durable goods orders and consumer spending indicators

Resource price trends (iron ore, copper, crude oil, etc.)

Position Management

Keep position sizes small when trading mainly in a range, and use short-term settlements as the basis for settlement.

When a break occurs, priority is given to split entry after confirmation rather than following the break.

Set the stop loss at 20-25 pips to limit risk.

checklist

Check the schedule for the release of economic indicators for Australia and China

Watch for developments in U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar index

Check the impact of intraday changes in resource prices (iron ore and copper) on the Australian dollar

looking back

In Tokyo time, the dollar was bought on the back of expectations for economic measures by the Takaichi administration, and while the upward pressure was confirmed in Europe, the dollar closed slightly higher in New York on the back of buying back from the dollar sell-off in response to the indexes

summary

Domestic policy expectations continue to support yen selling

Temporary dollar selling on weak U.S. economic indicators dissipated early

Overall, the trend is to maintain firmness while struggling in the high price range

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time: Yen selling ahead, USD/JPY steady

In European hours, the price was sluggish, with the upper price around 153 yen.

In New York, the dollar sold off temporarily due to worsening U.S. economic indicators, but later bought back and ended slightly higher.

Background & Materials

Expectations for economic stimulus measures by the Takaichi administration supported yen selling

In the U.S., PMI and new unemployment insurance applications weakened slightly

Amid continued speculation of a widening Japan-U.S. interest rate gap, the dollar's resilience was recognized

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Continued to test resistance around 153 yen, lack of momentum for an upside move

Lower price in the mid-152 yen range is considered as support.

Momentum slowed slightly while maintaining the uptrend line in the short term

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Maintains a gradual upward trend with the daily trend remaining above the 20-day moving average

Approaching the upper range of the medium-term ascending channel and eyeing the possibility of an adjustment

Continued to move along the upper Bollinger Band, with some caution about overheating

impression

A day of lack of direction as domestic policy expectations and U.S. interest rate trends are at odds with each other

Limited reaction to the indicators, with profit taking prevailing at higher prices in the short term

The overall market seems to have taken on more of a position adjustment tone ahead of the weekend.

trade observations

Cautious to chase higher prices and beware of a selloff near the milestone.

When a push is formed, confirm support in the mid-152 yen range and look for a buying opportunity.

Short-term trades with limited position sizes are effective while waiting for indicators

checklist

Confirmation of the results of major U.S. economic indicators (Durable Goods Orders and Preliminary PMI)

Check out the press trends on Japan's additional economic stimulus measures

Watch for a break above the 153-yen resistance or another push

looking back

The dollar was sold off in the New York session due to weakness in the U.S. index, but was bought back at the end of the session, and the daily session closed with little substance.

summary

Weak U.S. economic indicators led to a temporary sell-off of the dollar

The euro was supported to the downside by firmness of European indicators.

In the end, the market remained in a range, lacking a sense of direction

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time: lack of material for clues, firings in a narrow range

Eurozone PMI firm in European hours, testing higher but with limited momentum

In New York, the U.S. dollar was temporarily sold off due to weak U.S. indices, but was subsequently bought back to the upside.

Background & Materials

Eurozone PMI exceeded market expectations, underpinning expectations of economic recovery

Weak U.S. economic indicators spread a pause in dollar buying

Lack of major new news in both Europe and the U.S., and a wait-and-see mood continues

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The range between 1.0600 and 1.0680 remains in focus.

Short-term moving averages are flat, suggesting a lack of direction

A trend of mixed short-term buying and selling, with noticeable ups and downs whiskers

Technical Memo (mid-term)

On a daily basis, the market continues to hover around the 20-day line and is in a neutral position

Located in the middle band of the medium-term range, with no clear trend reversal confirmed

RSI maintained neutral level, calm price movement without overheating

impression

Temporary movement in response to U.S. economic indicators, but overall lack of direction

While the euro showed resilience, its upside was also restrained and lacked strength.

Trading was limited as position adjustments prevailed ahead of the weekend.

trade observations

No clear breakout is seen, so the focus is on contrarian strategies within the short-term range.

Sell on the upside and buy on the downside in small lots

Avoid deep chasing in the event of a sharp indicator reaction, and trade with an awareness of the upper and lower bounds of the range.

checklist

Review results of key economic indicators for the Eurozone and the U.S.

Watching to see which way out of the 1.0600-1.0680 range

Confirmation of statements by European dignitaries and interest rate trends for the week ahead.

looking back

From Tokyo to Europe, the dollar struggled to stay below the previous day's lows, and in New York, dollar selling temporarily prevailed due to the weakness of the U.S. index, but it was bought back and closed slightly lower.

summary

Price movements remained within a range amid a lack of direction.

Temporary buying of the euro and selling of the dollar due to U.S. indicators, but sustainability is limited

Overall, a calm development with a mixture of downward pressure and buybacks

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time: Lack of new materials, range with the previous day's low in mind

In the European session, a mixture of selling on the return and buying on the way back, and a lack of sense of direction.

Weak U.S. economic indicators in New York temporarily led to a dollar sell-off, but short-term buy-backs helped to restore the price.

Background & Materials

Persistent speculation of interest rate cuts on the U.K. side is a factor restraining the upside.

In the U.S., economic indicators fell short of market expectations, triggering a dollar sell-off

Lack of new policy cues in both the U.S. and Europe kept the market in a state of waiting for materials

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The range around 1.2600-1.2700 remains in focus.

Short-term moving averages remained sideways and showed no sense of direction

Temporary downward pressure is still easy to buy in the support zone

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Neutral ground on the daily basis as the market continues to attack the 20-day moving average

Price movement has converged in the middle band of the mid-term range and is looking for a turning point in the trend

RSI remains at neutral levels and shows no signs of overbought or oversold

impression

Reaction to the U.S. index was temporary, and the overall market's wait-and-see attitude was strong.

Pound showed solidity to the downside against the dollar, but lacked clear upside momentum

Trading was limited ahead of the weekend, with the main focus on short-term trading.

trade observations

A policy of selling back at the upper end of the range and buying at the lower end of the range in small lots is effective.

Be aware of short-term price movements immediately after the release of an indicator, and aim for a return after the reaction rather than following it.

We will be aware of position adjustments as the week progresses, and will try to keep risk to a minimum.

checklist

Confirmation of results and market reaction to major economic indicators in the U.K. and U.S.

Watch for signs of breaking out of the 1.2600-1.2700 range.

Confirmation of statements by Bank of England officials and changes in policy stance

looking back

The dollar was sold off in New York due to the weakness of the U.S. index, but was bought back and closed with a small candlestick.

summary

AUD lacks direction while reacting to U.S. index results

Resource prices were also limited, and the market remained in a range due to material difficulties.

Overall, a day focused on position adjustments ahead of the weekend

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo time, the market continued to hover around the previous day's close, lacking a clear sense of direction.

Temporary buying back in European hours, but the upside is heavy and limited

In New York, U.S. economic indicators fell short of expectations and dollar sales strengthened, but short-term buyers returned to the market.

Background & Materials

U.S. economic indicators fell short of expectations, triggering a sell-off in the dollar

No significant new material in Australia, wait-and-see mood ahead of next week's CPI release

Resource markets were flat and unlikely to be a factor in the direction of the Australian dollar

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, a range centered in the mid 0.65s is being considered.

The upside is held back by the recent highs, while the downside is supported by push-buying.

RSI is at neutral levels and trendless ground continues

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Daily trend remains above the 20-day moving average, maintaining a gradual upward trend

The medium-term range of 0.64-0.67 continues, with limited signs of a change in direction

Weekly trend remains in a sideways range from the previous week, awaiting a breakthrough

impression

While the overall U.S. dollar was sensitive to the index results, the flow was short-lived

The Australian dollar is limited to the downside against the backdrop of strong resource markets, but clear buying pressure is scarce.

Overall, market participants were less willing to trade actively, making for a quiet Friday

trade observations

For short-term price movements, sell at the upper end of the range and buy at the lower end of the range.

Beware of profit-taking at higher prices

In preparation for next week's CPI release, it is safe to lighten positions for the week ahead.

checklist

Check the Australian CPI schedule to be released next week

Watch the results of U.S. economic indicators (PCE and durable goods orders)

Check resource prices (especially iron ore and copper)