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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | October IFO Business Confidence Index | Graph Display |
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day, the price was slightly higher while swinging up and down. Today, it will be interesting to see if the high of October 10 can be renewed. Also, daylight saving time has ended in Europe and standard time has started today.
The previous day, the market was slightly higher while swinging up and down, and toward the end of the day, there was a move to confirm the firmness of the lower price. Today, we will see where the upside will be heavier. Also, the daylight saving time has ended in Europe and the standard time has started today.
The previous day saw a slight decline while the price swung up and down, and overall, the dollar's resilience was recognized. The lows have been gradually cutting down, and today is a phase where we need to see where the bottom will be weighed down. Also, the daylight saving time has ended in Europe and the standard time has started today.
The previous day saw a candle with little substance, and the pair continued to struggle with a lack of direction. Today, the AUDUSD opened a wide window of trade following indications of progress in the U.S.-China trade talks. However, the market reaction to reports related to the Chinese economy remains sensitive, and the trend is likely to reverse depending on the material. Today, we will be conscious of the window filling, and first we need to see at what level the upside will be weighed down. In addition, the daylight saving time has ended in Europe and the standard time has started today.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
During the Tokyo session, the dollar was bought ahead of the market and temporarily exceeded 153 yen, but the upward trend was dominated by the return of the dollar to the market. During the European trading hours, dollar buying weakened due to a pause in the rise of U.S. interest rates, and the yen was bought back, but the momentum did not continue at the 153-yen level and stalled out, although dollar buying strengthened again during the New York trading hours on the back of firmness in U.S. stocks. Overall, the day was marked by continued firmer trading at higher prices.
The previous day saw a series of directionless movements from Tokyo to early Europe, but better-than-expected German economic indicators temporarily boosted euro buying, while in New York, price movements gradually calmed down due to a lack of new material while keeping a close eye on US interest rate trends. As a result, the pair failed to exceed the previous day's highs, and the day ended in a struggle.
The previous day, the market lacked a sense of direction from Tokyo to the beginning of Europe, but in the second half of Europe, buyers began to take over, and in the New York time, dollar purchases limited the upside. As a result, both highs and lows of the previous day could not be renewed, and the day was marked by continued firmer trading.
The pair started the week's trading with a window and continued to lack a sense of direction during Tokyo hours. In European trading hours, risk appetite strengthened on the back of speculation of progress in the U.S.-China talks, and the Australian dollar rose slightly against the U.S. dollar. In New York, there was no new material, and the pair was in a steady struggle.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
①upper range end
②Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day was slightly higher while swinging up and down, and the trend of dollar buying dominance continued
While the firmness of U.S. long-term interest rates is supportive, there is also a sense of caution about intervention and high prices
Today, the focus will be on whether the October 10 highs can be renewed, and a search for a sense of direction is expected.
Assumed range
Assuming 151.80-153.40 area
The upper price is heavy in the mid ¥153's, while the lower price is conscious of the support below ¥152
The price range is expected to remain in the high range, albeit somewhat limited
tactics
Basic stance is to buy at the push point
A position to pick up a push lower at around 152.00 and aim for a short-term rebound is seen as effective.
However, if there is no clear exit from 153.30, we will keep our position light.
trigger
The upside trigger is above 153.30
Downside trigger is below 151.80
Volatility around the middle of Tokyo time and during the release of U.S. economic indicators should be noted
override condition
If 151.70 is clearly broken and held at the close
If the momentum of dollar buying weakens and the rise in U.S. interest rates pauses
Failure to renew higher prices may disrupt the uptrend continuation scenario
risk event
U.S. PCE deflator-related announcements
Reaction to the U.S. Treasury bond auction results and long-term interest rates
Statements and trends toward yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities
Position Management
Entry should be around 152.00-152.20
The profit target low is around 153.20 and the loss target is below 151.70.
Refrain from new purchases at high prices and give priority to adjusting holdings
checklist
Are U.S. interest rates continuing to rise?
Are there any changes in the exchange rate comments of the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan?
Confirmation of increased volume when the 153 yen level was breached
Market Summary
Euro lacks return momentum amid growing speculation that the European Central Bank will end its interest rate cuts, despite being supported on the downside
High U.S. interest rates continue to be a supportive factor for the U.S. dollar, and overall, the market continues to lack direction
The day before, the market was slightly higher while swinging up and down, and the firmness of the lower price was confirmed toward the end of the day
Assumed range
Assumed around 1.1600-1.1750
The upside is heavy around 1.18, while the downside is likely to be in the lower 1.16s as support.
During the day, price movements are likely to attract attention from the European time onward.
tactics
Basic policy is range rotation.
We will respond with a return to the market in the event of a short-term buy-back, and consider a light push to buy near support.
It is effective to be conscious of not holding a position for a long time and to take a narrow price range without fail!
trigger
The upside trigger is above 1.1760.
Downside trigger is below 1.1620
European hour index releases and U.S. hour bond market developments may trigger volatility
override condition
If 1.1600 is clearly broken and maintained at the close
Lack of euro-buying material, if US interest rates do not temporarily stop falling
If the support zone is broken by a downward push with volume, we will revise the scenario.
risk event
Preliminary Eurozone Inflation Rates
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator
Trends in Statements by U.S. and European Financial Authorities
Position Management
Entry should be in the vicinity of 1.1650-1.1680
Gains around 1.1740, losses below 1.1600.
Position size is about half the normal size to control risk
checklist
Review Eurozone Inflation Indicator Results and Market Reaction
Are U.S. interest rate trends strengthening the dollar and weakening the euro?
Observe volume increase/decrease and market momentum in the 1.17 range
Market Summary
Pound Lacks Return Momentum as UK Inflation Continues to Slow, Rate Cut Speculation Smoldering
High U.S. interest rates are supporting dollar purchases, and overall, the dollar's dominance is being recognized.
The previous day was slightly lower while swinging up and down, and the trend of lower lows continued
Assumed range
Assuming around 1.2600-1.2740
The upside is expected to be heavy in the mid-1.27s, while the downside is expected to search for a bottom near the 1.26 level.
Volatility is likely to increase slightly after European hours
tactics
Basic policy is to respond with a focus on return sales
We will consider re-selling in the upper resistance zone during the short-term rebound phase
Buy cautiously near support, and hold off on any rallies not accompanied by volume.
trigger
The upside trigger is above 1.2750
Downside trigger is below 1.2600
Temporary swings are likely to occur in the early hours of London time and around the time of the release of U.S. indices.
override condition
In case of a clear break above 1.2760
If the rise in U.S. interest rates pauses and the pressure to buy the dollar eases
We will revise our return scenario when the 1.27 level is maintained at the daily close
risk event
Remarks by Bank of England officials
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator
UK Housing Indicator Results and Market Reaction
Position Management
Entry should be in the vicinity of 1.2680-1.2700
The profit target is around 1.2620 and the loss target is above 1.2760.
Position size is about half the normal size to reduce risk
checklist
Is there any change in the Bank of England's interest rate cut outlook?
Do trends in U.S. interest rates continue to support dollar buying?
Is selling pressure with volume increasing in the early London hours?
Market Summary
Signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade talks strengthened risk appetite
The Australian dollar started the week with a large window in the Oceania market, and the early buying is prevailing in the early part of the week
The previous day lacked a sense of direction with candlesticks of small substance, and today's trend after the opening of the window will be watched closely!
Assumed range
Assumed around 0.6500 to 0.6630
The upside is expected to be heavy in the mid 0.66s, while the downside is expected to confirm support in the 0.65 area.
Price movements are easily influenced by U.S.-China related headlines.
tactics
Basic stance corresponds mainly to range rotation
Use return selling in the upper resistance zone and short-term push-buying near the lower support.
If a window-filling move is seen, we will carefully judge the direction by checking the momentum
trigger
The upside trigger is above 0.6630
Downside trigger is below 0.6500
We need to pay attention to the headlines around the middle of Tokyo time and in the early part of Europe!
override condition
If 0.6480 is clearly broken and held at the close
If reports related to the U.S.-China relationship turn sour and risk aversion strengthens
We will revisit the upside scenario if the resilience slows down after the window is completely filled
risk event
Australian Quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI)
U.S. PCE Deflator Related Indicators
Statements by Government Officials on U.S.-China Talks
Position Management
Entry should be in the neighborhood of 0.6530-0.6560
The profit target is around 0.6620 and the loss target is below 0.6490.
Position size is kept at about half the normal size to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations.
checklist
Are there any new changes in the coverage of the U.S.-China talks?
Confirmation of the market's incorporation into the Australian CPI
Will the post-window price movement settle down or head for expansion?
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
The dollar was bought in the Tokyo time, and at one point it exceeded 153 yen, but the return of the dollar was predominant at the upper end of the range.
summary
During European hours, dollar buying weakened as U.S. interest rates paused in their rise, and the yen was bought back
In New York, dollar buying strengthened again against the backdrop of firmness in U.S. stocks, but the momentum slowed down at the 153-yen level.
Overall, the market continued to hover in a high price range and lacked a sense of direction.
Today's Price Movement
Opening price started from the second half of 152 yen, testing the 153 yen level in Tokyo time
Adjustment selling pushed the price down to around 152.7 yen through European hours.
In New York, the yen was bought back to around 153 yen, supported by a rebound in U.S. equities.
Background & Materials
Dollar buying momentum calmed somewhat on the back of a pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates and comments from Fed officials
Continued awareness of the possibility of verbal intervention by the Japanese authorities due to the weak yen
The market as a whole took a wait-and-see attitude before the release of U.S. economic indicators.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside resistance is conscious in the vicinity of 153.20-153.30, and breakout requires clear material.
Lower support is at 152.50-152.60, a structure that is easy to push
RSI remains high, but overheating is limited and remains in a high price range
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The uptrend is maintained on a daily basis, and a support band based on the upper 150 yen level is functioning
Weekly trend continues at the upper end of the range, searching for a sense of direction
In the medium term, trends in U.S. interest rates and statements by authorities will be the axis for trend judgments.
impression
Despite the highs, dollar buying appetite remains strong, with a quiet attack on the risk of intervention.
Positioning is less likely to be unbalanced as we wait for the event, and price movements are more likely to be led by short-term sources.
Despite the overall adjustment, the firmness in the upper 152-yen range was recognized.
trade observations
For the time being, the market is mainly trading in a range around 153 yen and is suitable for short-term trading.
Light positions are appropriate until there is clear momentum to either the upside or the downside.
Continued attention to the risk of sharp declines on the upside specific to the dollar-yen
checklist
Will U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index begin to rise again?
Will return selling pressure strengthen at the ¥153 level?
Will statements by authorities and reports related to intervention affect the market?
looking back
The euro was temporarily bought due to the positive results of German indicators, but the New York session was lackluster and lacked directional momentum
summary
Buying dominated early in the European session, triggered by better-than-expected German economic indicators
Stronger sellers returned to the market before 1.17, and the upside was perceived to be heavy.
In New York, price movements were generally limited due to a lack of new materials, while keeping a close eye on US interest rates and stock market movements.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time: a small range in the upper 1.16s
After the release of the German index in the European hour, the price rose to around 1.1690 due to buying
In New York, the pair failed to make higher highs while reacting to the U.S. interest rate movement and eventually closed at around 1.1670
Background & Materials
German business confidence index exceeded expectations, slightly reducing caution about the eurozone economy
On the other hand, position adjustment is likely to proceed ahead of the ECB Governing Council meeting later in the week, restraining upside.
Limited dollar movement in the U.S. as the U.S. took a wait-and-see approach ahead of key U.S. indices.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside resistance is near 1.1700 and downside support is near 1.1650.
RSI remains in neutral territory, making it difficult to find a clear direction.
In the short term, the adjustment phase will continue within the 1.1650-1.1700 range
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Daily trend continues to hold near the 50-day moving average
A clear move above 1.1740 would raise awareness of medium-term upside potential, but stalemate awaits events
A break below 1.1550 would caution against a shift to a medium-term adjustment trend.
impression
Quiet day ahead of events, mainly position liquidation ahead of ECB Governing Council and U.S. indices
Trading was led by short-term sources and neither up nor down led to a clear break.
Overall, a low-risk trading attitude was noticeable.
trade observations
A day of effective short-term trading with an awareness of the upper and lower bounds of the range
Environment in which return selling near 1.17 and push-buying near 1.1650 are likely to work
It is appropriate to keep the lot size light before the event.
checklist
Is position adjustment intensifying due to speculation before the ECB Governing Council meeting?
Which is showing signs of exiting the 1.1650-1.1700 range
Are fluctuations in U.S. interest rates leading to pressure to buy the dollar and sell the euro?
looking back
Buybacks prevailed in the second half of the European session, but the New York session was lackluster and lacked a sense of direction.
summary
From Tokyo to early Europe, the price continued to move slightly in the low 1.33s
In the second half of the European session, buying returned and the price temporarily rose to the 1.3350 area.
In New York, the dollar was also bought and the upside was heavy again, and as a result, neither the previous day's high nor low could be renewed.
Today's Price Movement
In the early going, prices were only slightly higher amid material difficulties in the Asian markets.
Pound buying advanced to around 1.3350 by European time.
In New York, the pair again firmed against the backdrop of stable U.S. interest rates and closed at around 1.3330.
Background & Materials
Selling pressure on the pound was limited despite smoldering interest rate cut speculation due to slowing inflation trends in the U.K.
Position adjustment-driven market development ahead of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in the second half of the week
Dollar buying back ahead of U.S. economic indicators was a factor limiting upside.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside resistance is around 1.3355-1.3360, downside support is 1.3310-1.3330
RSI lacks directionality at neutral level, but range maintenance is conscious in the short term
A break below 1.3280 would likely intensify the adjustment, with room for a rebound to the 1.3380 area.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Daily trend continues to hover around the 50-day moving average
Above 1.3400, return selling pressure is expected, and 1.3250 is the support zone below.
The structure will continue to hold around the 1.33 level in the medium term
impression
Overall, amidst a general lack of materials, trading was dominated by short term sources in anticipation of the event.
Lack of clear direction due to mixed speculation on the Bank of England meeting and U.S. interest rate trends
It was a quiet day with many participants adjusting their positions.
trade observations
The environment is characterized by selling back at the upper end of the range near 1.3350 and buying at the lower end of the range near 1.3310.
Light lots and limited margins are appropriate before the event.
Focus on short-term contrarian trades in light of declining volatility
checklist
Is the return pressure maintained around 1.3350?
Are you leaning toward buying or selling the pound ahead of the Bank of England meeting?
Are trends in U.S. interest rates and stock prices leading to a resumption of dollar buying?
looking back
The week started with a window, and the Australian dollar was bought through European hours, but the upside was restrained after the RBA Governor's remarks.
summary
Tokyo session lacked a sense of direction, with small movements in the mid-0.65s continuing
In European hours, the Australian dollar was bid higher on speculation of progress in the U.S.-China talks.
Cautious comments by the RBA Governor dampened the buying momentum, and the NY session ended on a firmer note due to material difficulties.
Today's Price Movement
The price opened with a window and ranged slightly around 0.6530-0.6550 in Tokyo time.
European time rose to 0.6560 level due to risk appetite
Lacking new material entering the New York time, the price closed at around 0.6550.
Background & Materials
Reports of progress in U.S.-China talks improved market sentiment and helped support the Australian dollar.
RBA Governor said, "We are not in a hurry to cut interest rates," but stressed that he will keep a close watch on slowing inflation
The statement reinforced expectations that interest rates would remain unchanged ahead of the next Board of Governors meeting, and the market had only a limited reaction.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Upside resistance is around 0.6570-0.6600, downside support is around 0.6520-0.6500
In the short term, the firings between the central lines of the Bollinger Bands will continue.
RSI remains in neutral territory and continues to lack direction
Technical Memo (mid-term)
On a daily basis, the low 0.6500s are considered as a medium-term support band
A clear move above 0.6600 could lead to a test of the upper end of the range
However, liquidity is low before the event and the price range is likely to be limited.
impression
While the RBA Governor's comments provided short-term support for the Australian dollar, new positions were limited ahead of the CPI
Improving U.S.-China relations provide underlying support, but sense of direction remains elusive
Market was quiet at the end of the week as it waited for the next material to come out.
trade observations
Mostly short-term trading with an eye on the 0.6520-0.6600 range
Avoid carrying over before an event and use mainly day-trading as a safe strategy.
It is advisable to keep positions at 60-70% of the normal level and be prepared for the release of the index.
checklist
Is there a continued expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged following the RBA Governor's remarks?
Is the push reaction holding at around 0.6520?
Are reports on U.S.-China relations affecting the direction of the Australian dollar?
FX Diary