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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ America | β | August Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index [y/y] | Graph Display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | Graph Display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | Oct Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) | Graph Display |
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day saw a pause in the rise in U.S. long-term interest rates and a slowdown in dollar buying momentum. Technically, the market is also firmly above the top, making it easy for the yen to buy back in. Today, we will see where the bottom will consolidate.
The previous day, the Eurodollar was in a firmer position due to a lack of direction amid subdued U.S. interest rate movements. Today, we will see if a sense of direction emerges.
GBPUSD was directionless on the previous day as U.S. interest rates settled. Aggressive trading was put off as speculation of a rate cut smoldered against the backdrop of slowing inflation in the UK. Today, the market is still waiting to see if a sense of direction will emerge.
The previous day, the Australian dollar rose slightly against the U.S. dollar on the back of indications of progress in the U.S.-China trade talks. Today, we will see how far this momentum continues.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
During the Tokyo session, the yen was bid against the dollar following talks between the U.S. and Japanese finance ministers regarding foreign exchange rate trends. The market was once again aware of the possibility of intervention, which restrained the upward movement of the yen. After the European session, the market lacked a sense of direction, keeping a close eye on the U.S. interest rate trend, and the pair continued to haggle through the New York session. Although the yen sold off sharply, it was a day when the resilience of the yen was recognized.
The directionless movement continued from Tokyo through European hours, but a temporary downward push was made in early New York. The euro closed slightly higher on the back of a pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates and a slowdown in the dollar's buying momentum, and aggressive trading was limited ahead of the FOMC meeting and ECB Council meeting.
In the European session, the pound was sold predominantly on the back of a decline in the yield on the 10-year U.K. Treasury note, and the downward pressure accelerated after the start of the New York session due to a pick-up in the U.S. long-term interest rate. Although buyers returned to the market at the end of the session, the momentum did not continue and the return remained sluggish. In the end, the market closed below last week's lows, indicating that the market is still in a heavy mood.
From Tokyo to the European time frame, the market continued to hover and lacked a sense of direction. In the New York session, the dollar was repurchased as the rise in U.S. interest rates paused and dollar purchases receded. The dollar remained resilient at the end of the session, closing slightly higher.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day saw a pause in the rise of long-term U.S. interest rates and a calming of dollar buying
Technically, the upward momentum slowed down as the price was perceived to be heavy at the 153-yen level.
With persistent speculation of policy revisions by the BOJ, the yen is likely to continue to be bought back.
All eyes will be on today to see if there is a move to consolidate lower prices.
Assumed range
Assumed to be centered around 152.30-153.40 area
The situation is easily linked to U.S. interest rates and stock price movements, although they can easily swing either way.
tactics
Based on selling back to the highs, but with an eye on short-term rotation depending on the reaction on the downside.
Room for consideration of short-term buyback if a push to the low 152-yen level is confirmed
trigger
A break above 153.50 could rekindle dollar buying
Wary of short-term extension of adjustment on a break below 152.20.
Movements in economic indicators and long-term interest rates are expected to provide direction in the U.S. time
override condition
A clear break below 152.00 would invalidate the upside retest scenario.
Conversely, if 153.80 is clearly exceeded, the view of predominant return selling will be broken.
risk event
U.S. consumer confidence index and housing-related indicators
Reports related to statements by Bank of Japan officials and currency intervention
Interest rate changes in the U.S. Treasury market and sentiment changes in the stock market
Position Management
Keep lot size at 70% of normal and be prepared for sudden changes before and after the release of an index.
Profit should be taken around 152.60-152.80 and stop-loss should be determined at 153.70 or above.
It is desirable to prioritize short-term price action and to avoid deep pursuit of the market.
checklist
Will the resumption of the rise in U.S. interest rates be confirmed?
Will return pressure be maintained at the Β₯153 level?
Are there signs of stabilizing lower prices in the low 152 yen range?
Market Summary
The day before, U.S. interest rates settled down and the Eurodollar was directionless in the low 1.16s
Aggressive trading was restrained due to mixed speculation on the monetary policy outlook ahead of the ECB Governing Council meeting
The dollar's wait-and-see attitude ahead of the U.S. economic indicators also added to the overall narrow range of the market.
Today's focus is expected to be on pre-event position adjustments
Assumed range
Assuming 1.1590-1.1740 area
The market is likely to continue to be difficult to get out of both up and down, and the focus will be on coming and going within the range.
tactics
In the short term, range rotation will be the basic policy, with a view to selling on the upside and buying on the downside.
It is advisable to be light on positions before and after ECB and U.S. index releases.
trigger
Buy-backs prevailing on a break above 1.1740.
Downward flow is likely to strengthen with a break below 1.1590
U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence and U.S. interest rate trends will be watched as short-term triggers
override condition
A clear break below 1.1550 would negate the view of a break below the lower range limit.
Conversely, if the price exceeds 1.1760, the advantage of the return strategy will diminish
risk event
ECB Executive Board Meeting and President Lagarde's Press Conference
Consumer Price Index for the Euro Area, October (Preliminary)
U.S. economic indicators (consumer confidence, housing-related) released
Position Management
Lot sizes are kept at 60-70% of normal levels, and new construction is adjusted modestly until the event passes.
Gains around 1.1700 and losses below 1.1560 for a mechanical response.
Limited to mainly short-term trades until we get a sense of direction.
checklist
Is there increased volatility driven by speculation ahead of the ECB meeting?
Is the return pressure maintained at the upper 1.17 level?
Will the Euro's downward push be confirmed by the resumption of dollar buying after the release of U.S. indices?
Market Summary
The day before, U.S. interest rates settled and the pound dollar was directionless in the low 1.33s
The price remained heavy on the upside due to the slowdown in inflation in the U.K., which raised awareness of the possibility of an interest rate cut.
Overall, the market continued to hover within a range, as buyers remained reluctant to buy the dollar ahead of the release of U.S. indices
Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of This Week's Bank of England Meeting
Assumed range
Assuming 1.3280-1.3380 area
Direction is difficult to find, and we are still waiting for materials to break out either up or down.
tactics
For the time being, we are based on a range rotation, selling on the upside and buying on the downside.
To avoid sudden changes before the event, priority is given to small gains, mainly in the short term.
trigger
Possible tilt toward a buyback trend on a break above 1.3390.
Adjustment selling strengthens with a break below 1.3280
Trends in the U.S. consumer confidence index and U.K. interest rate futures will provide directional clues
override condition
A clear break below 1.3250 would negate the lower boundary of the range and disrupt the short-term upside scenario
Conversely, if the price exceeds 1.3420, a return-dominant strategy is less likely to work
risk event
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (10/28)
UK inflation-related indicators and BoE member statements
Speculation on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting later in the week
Position Management
Keep position size at 60-70% of normal and adjust new positions sparingly until the index passes.
Gains are to be made around 1.3360-1.3370 and losses are to be made below 1.3250.
Keep positions light until the direction is solidified and prepare for liquidity risk in the event of sudden changes
checklist
Will the resumption of dollar buying after the U.S. indexes be confirmed?
Will we see a pushback reaction in the low 1.33s?
Is market sentiment changing ahead of the BoE meeting?
Market Summary
The previous day, the Australian dollar was slightly higher against the U.S. dollar on indications of progress in U.S.-China trade talks
AUDUSD was supported on the downside as a pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates restrained dollar buying
However, aggressive buying was limited due to the desire to wait and see the results of the Australian CPI, which was due the next day.
Some selling back in the mid 0.65s was seen, and the overall trend lacked a sense of direction
Assumed range
Assumed around 0.6520-0.6600
The market is likely to remain in a range, waiting for events, and is likely to swing either up or down.
tactics
In the short term, we are looking for a range rotation, with a push-buy near 0.6520 and a sell-back near 0.6590.
Lightly positioned ahead of the CPI release, waiting for the event to pass and the trend to move.
trigger
Development that will make it easier to buy back in above 0.6600.
A break below 0.6520 may strengthen adjustment selling
US Consumer Confidence Index (10/28) and Australian CPI (10/29) results to be watched as short-term triggers
override condition
A clear break below 0.6500 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if the price exceeds 0.6640, the advantage of the return strategy decreases
risk event
10/29 Australian CPI (Q3) release
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Speculation surrounding the RBA board meeting in early November
Position Management
Lot size is kept at 60-70% of normal to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations before and after the event.
Gains are determined at around 0.6580-0.6590 and losses are determined at 0.6500 or below.
Until a sense of direction emerges, it is advisable to limit trading to short-term trades and avoid going too deep.
checklist
Is there a growing trend toward position adjustment ahead of the Australian CPI?
Is buying support maintained in the mid 0.65s?
Will the resumption of dollar buying be confirmed after the U.S. indexes?
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
In Tokyo time, the yen was bought ahead of the Japan-U.S. finance ministers' meeting, and then both Europe and New York continued to struggle
summary
Intervention alerts and waiting for events combined to keep upside prices restrained
Buying back at lower prices, overall a day with little sense of direction
Short-term range color is strong as we wait for materials, and price range is likely to be limited.
Today's Price Movement
Asian time is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, continuing the trend of the previous day.
With the entry into Europe, it is easy to be linked to the tone of interest rates and stocks, and the baseline is to continue to come and go.
New York awaits reaction to event headlines and beware of ups and downs
Background & Materials
Lingering Yen Buying Following Japan-U.S. Dignitaries' Meeting and Smoldering Intervention Speculation
Lack of direction in U.S. interest rates and a lull in dollar buying momentum
Position adjustment is the main focus as we wait for indicators and key figures to speak.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Continued to hold between recent highs and lows
Easy return to the upside, push-back reaction at the downside
Short-term moving averages are flat and momentum neutral
Technical Memo (mid-term)
A pause in the upward trend; trend judgment will be carried over to after the event is over
Whether the support zone can be maintained is the divergence of the medium-term stance.
Volume tends to shrink slightly before the event
impression
Reactions to materials are becoming faster, be wary of headline-driven price movements
We want to determine the quality of the initial response rather than excessive anticipation.
It is essential not to be swayed by sudden price movements during thin trading hours
trade observations
Basically, range rotation is assumed and breaks are followed with emphasis on accuracy.
Lighten positions before an event and take profits frequently.
When retrograding, limit damage with shallow stops.
checklist
Check for authority statements and intervention-related headlines
Is the direction of U.S. interest rates and the stock market spilling over into the U.S. dollar?
Whether or not the upper and lower bounds of the range are updated in Asia and how this is accompanied by volume
looking back
Lack of direction from Tokyo to the European time, then after a downward push in the early New York time, buyers started to buy back and the market closed slightly higher.
summary
Overall, a day of wait-and-see attitude ahead of FOMC and ECB Governing Council meetings
Lull in U.S. Interest Rates Slows Dollar Buying Momentum; Euro Remains Resilient
In the short term, a narrow range continues to develop as we await events
Today's Price Movement
Asian hours were directionless, with limited price action.
Stalemate continues in Europe due to material difficulties
Temporary downward pressure at the beginning of the New York session was followed by a slight rebound as buyers returned to the market
Background & Materials
A pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates restrained dollar buying.
Investors refrain from taking new positions ahead of preliminary Eurozone GDP figures and ECB Governing Council meeting
Wary of the FOMC spread to all markets, making it difficult to find a sense of direction
Technical Memo (Short-term)
In the short term, the market continues to hold around 1.0650-1.0750
Moving averages are converging and waiting to break
RSI is in neutral territory with no signs of overheating
Technical Memo (mid-term)
In the medium term, the range will continue with support at the lower 1.06 level.
Still firmer around the 200-day line, signs of a trend reversal are still limited
Bollinger Bands are contracting and should be ready to expand after the event.
impression
Lacking a clear sense of direction, the reaction after the event is likely to determine the next phase of the market
Environment sensitive to news headlines and interest rate trends in the short term
Not the time to go for risk, position liquidation is the priority.
trade observations
Mainly short-term rotation within a narrow range
New positions will be taken after confirming the initial post-event activity.
Set stops shallow to prepare for the risk of sudden changes before and after the event.
checklist
Confirming the tone of the FOMC statement and the Chairman's remarks
Check out the preliminary Eurozone GDP results and market reaction
Watch for short-term changes linked to movements in U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
looking back
Selling of the pound accelerated in European hours on the back of a decline in the yield on the 10-year U.K. Treasury note, and the downward pressure was accelerated in New York with the addition of higher U.S. interest rates.
summary
Selling was led by lower U.K. interest rates in the early stages of the session, while the dollar's appreciation pressure was compounded from the middle of the session onward.
Some buying was seen at the end of the day, but the return was slow and the market closed below last week's low.
Overall, interest rate differential awareness prevails over risk appetite
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time started with small movements, and selling started to prevail in early Europe
In New York time, the downward movement was accompanied by a pickup in U.S. interest rates
Slight pullback by short-covering at the end of the day, but limited upside
Background & Materials
Yields on 10-year U.K. Treasury bonds fell, raising awareness of the possibility of an early interest rate cut.
Optimism about the U.S.-China summit supported risk sentiment, but currency reaction was limited
Rebound in U.S. long-term interest rates supported the dollar and restrained the return of the pound
Technical Memo (Short-term)
In the short term, the downtrend continues with the upper limit at 1.2650
Clearly below 1.2550 and last week's low
RSI approaches oversold territory, but momentum of rebound limited
Technical Memo (mid-term)
In the medium term, the trend line has remained below the uptrend line since August
The low 1.2500s are considered as a support band for the time being.
Dead crossing of moving averages is in progress and the structure is prone to return sales
impression
Lower UK interest rates are likely to affect market sentiment, and the double factor of a stronger dollar and a softer trend
As an adjustment market before risk events, beware of sudden rebound
Technical-driven trading tends to increase when materials are scarce
trade observations
Maintain a sell-back stance and watch for developments after the event.
Short-term priority is to confirm the rebound phase, rather than to take the price range.
Thoroughly manage risk and adjust position size moderately
checklist
Confirmation of the direction of U.K. interest rate trends and U.S. long-term interest rates
Check out the volatility of the dollar index before the FOMC
Watching the short-term support line (around 1.2500) to see if it holds.
looking back
The AUD was directionless from Tokyo to the European time, but the AUD was bought back in New York as the US interest rates paused in their rise.
summary
Wait-and-see attitude ahead of Australian CPI, mainly small movements in Asia and Europe
The Australian dollar edged lower as dollar buying receded as U.S. interest rates paused in their rise.
The market remained firm at the end of the day and closed in slightly positive territory.
Today's Price Movement
Asian session was choppy and lacked direction, with short-term traders taking the lead
Price range is limited in Europe as well, with a wait-and-see attitude toward the Australian CPI.
In New York, the Australian dollar was supported by a risk appetite as the dollar was sold to adjust
Background & Materials
Expectations for U.S.-China Summit Support Market Sentiment
Mixed speculation over the monetary policy outlook ahead of the Australian CPI on the following day
US interest rates were the key to the overall dollar market, and the Australian dollar was also affected.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
In the short term, trading is mainly in the range of 0.6520-0.6570
Converging moving averages and lack of direction
RSI is in neutral territory with no signs of overheating
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The medium-term trend is for the price to continue to hover around the 0.65 level as support to the downside
Failure to clearly exceed 0.66, and the upward pressure is also being considered.
Volatility may increase after the event passes
impression
Quiet trading before the event, but still sensitive to changes in dollar interest rates
Phase in which medium- to long-term interest rate and economic themes take precedence over short-term materials
It is worth noting that the company remains resilient even in a risk-averse environment.
trade observations
Be cautious about new entries before the Australian CPI is released.
Maintain a push-buy stance in the short term and rebuild strategy after the event passes
Be aware of time overlap with FOMC and U.S. indices, and prioritize gains when volatility expands.
checklist
Confirmation of Australian CPI release results and market interest rate factoring
Watch for developments in U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Check for changes in risk appetite mood (stocks and China-related news)
FX Diary