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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | September Consumer Price Index (CPI) [yoy] | Graph Display | |||||
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the quarter July-September [y/y] | Graph Display | |||||
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | Quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July-September [y/y] | Graph Display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | September Pending Home Sales Index [month-over-month] | Graph Display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | September Pending Home Sales Index [y/y] | Graph Display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β β | Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces policy rate after the meeting | Graph Display |
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| type | Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | πΊπΈ America | Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, Regular Press Conference |
Today's Outlook
On the previous day, the U.S.-Japan finance ministers held a meeting to discuss foreign exchange rate trends, and yen buying prevailed somewhat. However, there was some buying back at lower levels, indicating a certain degree of resilience. Before Tokyo opened, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessento mentioned the BOJ's monetary policy on SNS, which led to increased yen buying. Today, position adjustment is likely to take center stage ahead of the FOMC policy rate announcement. We will keep an eye on any upward test of the yen and look for direction.
The previous day lacked a sense of direction from European to U.S. hours, but after a downward push early in the New York session, buying returned and the market closed slightly higher. While there is a possibility that this momentum will continue, today is likely to be a day of position adjustment ahead of the FOMC policy rate announcement, preliminary GDP data from the Eurozone, and the ECB Governing Council meeting the following day.
The previous day, the pound was sold off sharply due to a combination of lower 10-year UK bond yields and optimism about the US-China summit, plus higher US long-term interest rates. The pound sold off sharply on a combination of lower 10-year British bonds yields, optimism about the U.S.-China summit, and higher U.S. long-term interest rates. Today, position adjustment is likely to take center stage ahead of the FOMC's policy rate announcement. Today, we will see whether this trend will slow down or whether the downward pressure will continue.
On the previous day, expectations for the U.S.-China summit supported risk appetite, and the Australian dollar was a strong buyer against the U.S. dollar. The lull in the rise in U.S. interest rates also served as a tailwind, and the dollar remained firm toward the end of the day. Today, position adjustments are likely to take center stage ahead of the FOMC's policy rate announcement. It remains to be seen whether this momentum will continue today.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
Before the opening of the Tokyo session, there were some signs of yen buying on the back of U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's reference to the BOJ's monetary policy on social networking sites. During the Tokyo session, the yen was sold off with some holding adjustments, but the overall sense of direction was limited ahead of the FOMC meeting. The yen softened after the announcement as dollar buying strengthened on the view that the U.S. monetary authorities maintained their tightening stance.
The euro was sold predominantly from Tokyo through European hours, and the dollar continued to be bought on the back of rising U.S. interest rates, but in the New York hours, the euro was bought back with a view to adjusting the market's holdings, and the market was slightly resigned. Market attention turned to the FOMC meeting, which lacked a sense of direction until just before the announcement. As a result, the U.S. monetary authorities were perceived to be tightening their monetary stance, and the dollar was predominantly bought, resulting in a weak euro to the upside.
Selling of the pound prevailed from the beginning of the European session. In the U.K., concerns about slowing inflation and economic slowdown weighed on the prospect of a rate cut, while in New York, the FOMC meeting was less active, and the pound was pushed lower by dollar buying immediately after the announcement.
From Tokyo to European hours, Australian dollar buying prevailed, but upside testing was limited. In New York, the dollar was seen buying more strongly as the FOMC meeting was expected and the tightening stance of the U.S. monetary authorities was reaffirmed after the announcement. The Australian dollar was temporarily pushed lower, but overall the pair remained within a range.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
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session (Daylight Savings Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The day before, the U.S. and Japan finance ministers held talks on exchange rate trends, which led to a predominance of yen buying.
However, at the lower end of the range, buy-backs by actual demand and short-term sources were also seen, limiting the downward pressure.
Calm price movements are expected today ahead of the FOMC meeting, mainly due to position adjustments
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 149.00-150.40
Hard to get a sense of direction ahead of the FOMC statement, with thick orders on both the top and bottom of the market
tactics
Based on range rotation prior to the event, focusing on short-term return sales.
Consider buying at the first sign of a sharp decline, but avoid holding on to positions.
trigger
A break above 150.40 could strengthen short-term buying to the upside.
Stops could be rolled in below 149.00 and yen buying momentum could increase.
Tokyo time: wait-and-see prevails; NY time: focus on FOMC statement (early next morning)
override condition
If the FOMC shows a dovish message and dollar selling accelerates with lower U.S. interest rates
Conversely, if the statement is more hawkish and the dollar is bought on the back of rising U.S. interest rates, the range scenario will be broken.
risk event
FOMC policy rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference
U.S. employment cost index
Statements by Bank of Japan officials and comments by exchange authorities
Position Management
Position size is limited to less than half the normal size in consideration of event risk
The profit target is near 150.30 and the loss target is below 149.00.
Go as light as possible on the position before the announcement.
checklist
Check for changes in the wording of the FOMC statement (with or without hints of a rate cut)
Watch for reaction of U.S. interest rates and dollar index
Check for statements by currency authorities and reports related to intervention.
Market Summary
The previous day lacked a sense of direction from European to U.S. hours.
After a downward push in early New York, the euro was bought back and closed slightly higher
Position adjustment is expected to be the main focus today ahead of the FOMC meeting, the preliminary Eurozone GDP report, and the ECB Governing Council meeting on the following day.
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 1.0650-1.0750
Expect heavy upside and downside as the range is likely to continue before the event.
tactics
In the short term, consider range rotation as the basis, and consider buying at the push point in case of a sharp decline.
Lighten positions before the event and prioritize directional confirmation after the index release.
Short-term traders will focus on U.S. interest rate reaction in NY hour.
trigger
Buy-back forces may strengthen on a break above 1.0750
Risk of a tilt in favor of the dollar below 1.0650
Fluctuations will increase triggered by the preliminary Eurozone GDP (18:00) and the FOMC statement (early next morning)
override condition
If the FOMC shows a dovish message and the dollar sells off rapidly
If Eurozone GDP falls far short of expectations and euro selling accelerates on economic concerns
If there is no direction and the range remains narrow, return the strategy to neutral
risk event
Preliminary GDP figures for the euro area (Q3)
FOMC policy rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference
ECB Executive Board meeting the following day
Position Management
Recommend position size of 50% or less of normal before the event
The profit target is around 1.0740 and the loss target is below 1.0650.
Set orders shallow in case of sudden changes after the release of an index.
checklist
Review Eurozone Preliminary GDP Results and Market Reaction
Watch for FOMC statement and tone of Chairman Powell's remarks
Check the reaction of the U.S. interest rate trend and the dollar index.
Market Summary
The previous day, the pound sold off sharply due to a combination of lower UK 10-year bond yields and optimism about the US-China summit, plus higher US long-term interest rates
Although there was some buying back at the end of the day, the return was slow, and the market closed below last week's lows.
Calm price movements centered on position adjustments are expected today ahead of the FOMC meeting
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 1.2420-1.2550
While caution about lower prices remains, the market is likely to see a short-term adjustment and buybacks.
tactics
In the short term, the company will focus on range trading prior to the index, while basing its actions on a return to the market.
Consider buying at the margin during sharp declines, but avoid taking over positions prior to the event.
Direction is expected to emerge mainly after the FOMC announcement
trigger
Short-term buying momentum is likely to strengthen on a break above 1.2550
Selling may accelerate below 1.2420 and the downward trend may resume
From European to U.S. hours, watch for U.S. interest rate trends and changes in risk appetite
override condition
If the FOMC meeting shows a dovish message and the dollar is sold off
If the hawkish stance resurfaces in UK macro indicators and statements
Ease downside caution once technicals do not allow a clear break below recent lows
risk event
FOMC policy rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference
U.S. GDP and employment data
Statement from UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Officials
Position Management
Position size kept below 50% of normal for pre-event risk
The profit margin is set near 1.2530 and the stop loss is set at 1.2420 or below.
Focus on short-term trading until a sense of direction emerges.
checklist
Confirming the tone of the FOMC statement and the Chairman's remarks
Watch for reaction of U.S. interest rates and dollar index
Check the movement of UK bond yields and the stock market's risk appetite.
Market Summary
The previous day, expectations for the U.S.-China summit supported risk appetite, and the Australian dollar was a strong buyer against the U.S. dollar.
The lull in the rise of U.S. interest rates also provided a tailwind, and the market remained firm toward the end of the day.
Calm price movements are expected today ahead of the FOMC meeting, mainly due to position adjustments
Assumed range
Assuming a range around 0.6500-0.6570
Profit-taking at higher prices and push-buying at lower prices are likely to continue
tactics
Basically, buy at the push, but check the direction after the event has passed and respond accordingly
Prioritize short-term turnover rather than accumulating new positions before the FOMC
Watchful waiting in Asia, strategy to be determined based on price movements in Europe and beyond
trigger
A break above 0.6570 could strengthen the buying trend.
Risk of deeper short-term correction below 0.6500
Watch for reaction of U.S. interest rate trends and the U.S. dollar index
override condition
If there are hawkish statements from the FOMC and dollar buying is rekindled
If risk aversion intensifies due to Australian economic indicators or China-related news
Failure to break above recent technical highs will negate the upside scenario once and for all
risk event
FOMC policy rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference
U.S. economic indicators (preliminary GDP and ADP employment data)
China-related press coverage (stimulus packages and comments from authorities)
Position Management
Position size is recommended to be less than 50% of normal before the event.
The profit target is near 0.6560 and the loss target is below 0.6490.
Short-term trading until the event passes, then rebuild after confirming the direction.
checklist
Confirming the tone of the FOMC statement and the Chairman's remarks
Watch for movement in U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index.
Check out risk trends in the Chinese market and commodity prices
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
Early in the morning, the comments by the U.S. Treasury Secretary triggered yen buying, but in Tokyo hours, yen selling prevailed and after the FOMC meeting, dollar buying strengthened.
summary
The U.S. dollar remained firm as U.S. monetary authorities reaffirmed their tightening stance
On the other hand, the yen continued to move slowly on the recovery as the prospect of a change in policy on the Japanese side receded.
Markets were mainly adjusting their positions, keeping an eye on U.S. interest rates and the BOJ meeting.
Today's Price Movement
During the Tokyo time, the yen was bought by the Treasury Secretary's comments, and then the dollar/yen rebounded slightly with a consolidation of holdings.
In Europe, a wait-and-see approach to the FOMC was widespread, and dollar buying strengthened after the event passed in New York time
The yen sold off slightly against the backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates at the end of the day.
Background & Materials
There was a growing expectation that the U.S. monetary authorities would maintain their stance on price controls and would not hasten the pace of interest rate cuts.
U.S. interest rates remained firm and the dollar remained resilient against major currencies
On the Japanese side, the yen was weighed down by a retreat in speculation about policy revisions ahead of the BOJ meeting
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The upside was heavy at the previous day's highs, while the downside was a short-term support line.
In the short term, the market has remained in a range that is difficult to get a sense of direction.
The immediate focus will be on whether or not the highs will be renewed after the event passes.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
While maintaining an upward trend in the medium term, there is a slowdown in momentum
The divergence between the major moving averages is narrowing, and we are aware of the possibility of a holding formation
If the price falls below the support, we need to pay attention to the risk of widening the adjustment range
impression
The day was a mixture of strong and weak materials, and lacked a sense of direction.
The reaction after the FOMC meeting was limited, giving the impression that the market had already factored in a certain amount of
The next major news is shifting to the Governor's remarks after the BOJ meeting
trade observations
Short-term trading was limited due to a strong wait-and-see attitude for the event to pass.
Dollar buying immediately after the FOMC meeting was temporary, and profit-taking was a priority
Many are responding with light positions ahead of the weekend, and cautious trading continues
checklist
Check U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Check out the tone of the Governor's remarks after the BOJ meeting
Watch for sustained yen buying pressure in early Tokyo hours
looking back
From Tokyo to the European time, the euro was sold predominantly, and after the FOMC meeting, the dollar was bought and the euro was on the upswing
summary
Directionality was limited overall, with most of the time ahead of the FOMC meeting focused on consolidating holdings.
The U.S. dollar held firm as the stance of U.S. monetary authorities was perceived as tighter.
The slowdown in prices in the eurozone also held down the euro to the upside.
Today's Price Movement
In Asia, the euro was sold off and tested the downside in the early European session.
In the New York time, there was a temporary buy-back due to the wait-and-see attitude before the FOMC meeting, but after the announcement, the dollar was once again the predominant buyer.
Overall, the day was centered on reactions to the results from the wait for the event.
Background & Materials
U.S. monetary authorities indicated that they would maintain high interest rates, which led to stronger dollar buying on the back of interest rate differentials
Sluggish economic indicators and slowing inflation in the Eurozone are affecting policy stance
The recovery in risk appetite was limited, and the dollar continued to be favored as a safe currency.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
In the short term, the trend of strong sell-offs continued, and the upward price cut-off was recognized.
Intermittent buybacks were also seen near the support, confirming the firmness of the lower price.
Short-term moving averages have changed sideways, forming a range with little sense of direction
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Medium-term downtrend continues, interspersed with an adjustmental return
Divergence from the major moving averages has narrowed, and the post-event reaction will determine whether the trend continues or turns.
The environment is still susceptible to selling pressure at higher prices
impression
Aggressive trading was discouraged during the FOMC waiting period, leading to temporary volatility after the announcement
While the market as a whole continued to be dominated by the dollar, there was also a temporary euro buy-back, depending on the materials
The price has been moving in a direction that is difficult to grasp, and the change in the situation after the event is over will be a focus of attention.
trade observations
Position liquidation before the announcement was the main focus, with a noticeable short-term reaction after the event passed.
The price range was narrow, and the impression was that there was a lot of movement prioritizing profit taking.
Light positions were effective in preparing for sudden changes when volatility increased
checklist
Checking US interest rates and the dollar index after the FOMC meeting
Check the tone of Eurozone inflation indicators and ECB key figures' statements.
Observe whether or not there is a break of the upper and lower bounds of the short-term range
looking back
Selling of the pound was predominant early in Europe, and after the FOMC announcement, the pound was pushed lower due to dollar buying
summary
The pound was slow to return to the market due to concerns about slowing inflation and economic slowdown in the U.K.
The FOMC meeting confirmed the tightening stance of the U.S. monetary authorities and the dollar remained firm
Markets reaffirmed the interest rate differential between the U.K. and the U.S. and continued to trade cautiously amid a lack of direction
Today's Price Movement
The Asian session started with small movements, and the pound was sold off after entering Europe.
In New York, a wait-and-see mood prevailed ahead of the FOMC meeting, with dollar buying gaining the upper hand after the announcement
The pound closed the day slightly lower on the back of higher U.S. interest rates at the end of the day
Background & Materials
In the U.K., inflation continued to slow and growth indicators were sluggish, which raised awareness of the possibility of monetary easing.
In the U.S., monetary authorities remained hawkish and the dollar was broadly bid.
Risk aversion also combined to limit the upward movement of the pound.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
In the short term, the trend of predominant return selling continued, confirming the heaviness of the upward trend.
Intermittent buybacks were seen around the support area, and there were some downside signs
The major moving averages are trending downward, and there is an appearance of range formation with no sense of direction
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The medium-term downtrend is continuing, and the upside is likely to be limited even in the return phase.
Deviations from the major moving averages have narrowed and the market continues to hoard energy
In the medium term, UK interest rate trends are likely to be a factor in determining the direction of the trend.
impression
Overall, the market was quiet ahead of the FOMC meeting, but after the announcement, the dollar's dominance was reconfirmed
The pound's buyback momentum was limited due to weak fundamentals.
We expect that indicators and statements by key figures will be of interest to the market through the second half of the week.
trade observations
Trading was centered on holding adjustments prior to the FOMC meeting, and was dominated by short-term price gains.
After the announcement, the one-way flow strengthened temporarily, but the reaction was limited due to quick gains.
Overall, participants kept their positions light and prioritized risk management.
checklist
Check U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Check UK inflation-related data and BOE key figures' statements
Observe changes in market sentiment after the FOMC
looking back
The Australian dollar was bid higher from Tokyo to the European time, but after the FOMC announcement, the dollar was bid higher and the Australian dollar was pushed lower.
summary
The Australian dollar was temporarily supported by resilient Australian inflation indicators
However, the dollar began to gain ground on the view that U.S. monetary authorities maintained their tightening stance.
Overall, price movements remained within a range as we awaited the event.
Today's Price Movement
Asian hours were dominated by Australian dollar buying on the back of inflation-related results
Buying paused in Europe, and the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates restrained upside movement.
In New York, a wait-and-see approach ahead of the FOMC meeting was widespread, and the Australian dollar was pushed lower by dollar buying after the announcement
Background & Materials
Australian price data was mixed, with speculation on the RBA's policy decisions.
Weak economic indicators in China led to a slight pullback in buying of resource-related currencies
The U.S. stance on maintaining high interest rates was confirmed, and this was a factor in restraining the Australian dollar's upward movement.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
In the short term, a range was formed around the low 0.66s, confirming the heaviness of the upward trend
On the downside, there is buying in the low 0.65s, and a certain degree of firmness is also being recognized
Short-term moving averages remained flat and lacked direction
Technical Memo (mid-term)
In the medium term, we are in an adjustment phase from the uptrend, and the trend is toward a return to the uptrend.
Deviation from the major moving averages is narrowing, and the market is searching for an equilibrium point.
The interest rate differential between Australia and the U.S. continues to be a medium-term market theme
impression
The Australian dollar was temporarily bought on inflation indicators, but was led by the dollar after the FOMC passed
In terms of fundamentals, it was easy to be aware of the temperature difference between Australia and the U.S.
The market environment continues to be difficult to determine the direction of the market due to a strong wait-and-see attitude for the next material.
trade observations
In Asia, buy-backs were limited, with short-term selling prevailing in Europe and beyond.
Immediately after the FOMC meeting, the Australian dollar was pushed lower by temporary dollar buying momentum
Overall, trading was limited to short-term price action, and risk was low.
checklist
Confirming the market's incorporation into the RBA's next meeting
Check U.S. interest rate trends and the U.S. dollar index.
Observe changes in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices
FX Diary