Market Summary

On the previous day, the yen was bought by the U.S. Treasury Secretary during the Tokyo time, but the dollar was bought by the FOMC afterwards, as the hawkish content of the FOMC meeting was recognized.

U.S. interest rates remained on a high note, and the U.S. dollar and yen were temporarily volatile

With the Bank of Japan set to announce its policy rate today, it is easy to see position adjustments ahead of the event.

Assumed range

Assuming an upside around 153 yen and a downside around the mid 151 yen range

The event results may take us out of the range in the short term, and we must be prepared for a price range expansion.

tactics

Buy at the drop of a dime, but be cautious about taking new positions before the event.

Assuming increased volatility, be cautious not to get caught up in sudden price movements immediately after the release of an index.

If the direction becomes clear after the announcement, consider following in the short term

trigger

Focus on BOJ policy rate unchanged and statement

If the continuation of monetary easing is emphasized, the dollar is likely to react in a buying direction, and conversely, if there is a suggestion of a correction, the yen is likely to prevail.

Time period from after noon in Tokyo to early Europe when market reactions are likely to expand.

override condition

If a clear move below ¥151 is seen, the push-buy strategy will be paused.

Caution is also needed in the event of a sharp drop in U.S. interest rates and stronger risk aversion buying the yen due to falling stock prices

risk event

BOJ Policy Rate and Governor Ueda's Press Conference

U.S. PCE Deflator / Preliminary GDP

Long-term interest rate trends and stock market fluctuations in major countries

Position Management

Keep position size to less than half of normal and rebuild based on price movements after the announcement

Take profits in small increments and cut losses at a level slightly below the recent low.

Diversify open interest and shift entry timing during periods of high volatility

checklist

Confirmation of the results of the BOJ meeting and changes in the wording of the statement

Check US interest rates and the dollar index.

Observe price movements and market direction from Tokyo noon to early Europe

Market Summary

The day before, the FOMC meeting lacked a sense of direction, but after the announcement, the dollar was perceived as hawkish, and dollar buying strengthened.

The euro was temporarily pushed lower, and the overall trend was dollar-driven.

Cautious trading, including position adjustments, is expected today ahead of the ECB Governing Council meeting and Lagarde's press conference

Assumed range

The upside is expected to be around the 1.17 level and the downside in the upper 1.15 level.

Ahead of important events, price movements are limited but can easily swing either up or down.

tactics

Based on a range of rotation, new construction should be limited prior to events.

In the short term, use sell-back and push-buy near milestones

Priority is given to lightweight positions until the announcement details are available.

trigger

Possible euro buyback if ECB policy rate announcement and President's press conference take a hawkish tone

On the other hand, if the unchanged stance and cautious guidance are confirmed, dollar buying is likely to resume

Note increased volatility from European afternoon to New York time

override condition

A clear break above 1.17 would pause the return scenario

Conversely, if the price falls below the mid-1.15s, beware of the possibility of a further strengthening of the adjustment phase.

risk event

ECB Executive Board Meeting and President Lagarde's Press Conference

Preliminary Eurozone HICP

U.S. PCE Deflator / Preliminary GDP

Position Management

Position size is kept at about half the normal size, with a posture of rebuilding after the event.

Priority for gains is given to short-term price range, and losses are set slightly outside of recent highs and lows.

Avoid new entries immediately before the event and focus on confirming direction after the announcement

checklist

ECB press conference confirms inflation assessment and change in policy stance

Check U.S. interest rate trends and the U.S. dollar index.

Comparing the results of Eurozone inflation indicators with those of U.S. indicators to determine their strength and weakness

Market Summary

The previous day, the pound was sold predominantly from European hours and the dollar was bought against the backdrop of the hawkish stance of the U.S. monetary authorities

On the U.K. side, the pound was slow to return to the market due to a slowdown in inflation and slowing growth

U.S. interest rates remain high after the FOMC meeting and the dollar is perceived to be resilient in the short term

Assumed range

The upside is expected to be around the 1.27 level and the downside around 1.25.

Many expect the market to remain in a range, as the wait-and-see approach is likely to intensify ahead of the U.S. indexes.

tactics

While selling on the return is the basis, short-term buybacks are also considered at lower prices

Position yourself lightly because it is difficult to get a sense of direction.

Technical indicators are in neutral territory, so follow-up after the break is effective

trigger

Beware of renewed dollar buying in response to U.S. GDP and PCE deflator results.

A clear break below the mid-1.25s could increase downward pressure

Key figures' comments in Europe and flows in early New York will determine short-term direction

override condition

A clear break above the 1.27 level would pause the return scenario.

Also need to review if UK interest rates rise or U.S. interest rates fall, which may lead to stronger buying of the pound.

risk event

U.S. GDP Preliminary Report, PCE Deflator

U.K. consumption-related indicators and statements by key figures

Changes in risk appetite due to U.S. Treasury bond auctions and stock market trends

Position Management

Enter with less than half the normal size and keep open interest light before and after the index.

Interest is taken in small increments of a few dozen pips over a short period of time

Stop-losses are set at levels slightly above recent highs and respond mechanically in the event of sudden changes

checklist

Check U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index.

Check for any changes in statements by Bank of England officials.

Reconfirm flow turning points (London FIX, etc.) for Europe - NY time

Market Summary

On the previous day, Australian dollar buying prevailed from Tokyo to the European time, but the upside was limited.

The Australian dollar softened after the announcement as the FOMC meeting was widely seen as a sign that the U.S. monetary authorities maintained their tightening stance and the dollar was bought more strongly

On the Australian side, the lack of growth in resource prices and the Chinese economy weighed on the market, and the market continued to lack a sense of direction.

Assumed range

The upside is expected to be around the 0.66 level and the downside around the upper 0.64 level.

Trading is likely to be centered on the range, keeping a close eye on U.S. economic indicators and interest rate trends.

tactics

Buy at the pushpoint, but consider a short-term sellback if the upside growth is slow.

Technical indicators are in neutral territory, limiting trade size in a directionless market

In Asian time, priority will be given to wait-and-see, and then respond after confirming the trend in Europe and beyond.

trigger

U.S. dollar buying is likely to strengthen if the U.S. PCE deflator and preliminary GDP data exceed expectations

Conversely, if U.S. interest rates decline and risk appetite recovers, watch for a move to buy back the Australian dollar.

Conscious of timing of increased liquidity from Asian afternoon to New York time.

override condition

If the price falls clearly below the 0.64 level, the assumption of a push to buy is temporarily suspended

Strategy revision also needed if the U.S. dollar-led rally stalls and the Australian dollar strengthens its self-sustaining rebound

risk event

U.S. PCE Deflator / Preliminary GDP

China's Manufacturing PMI

Preliminary Australian trade balance and statements from RBA officials

Position Management

Position size is about half the normal size, mainly for short-term trades.

Take profits frequently in tens of pips increments.

Set stop-losses slightly below recent lows and keep open interest light prior to index releases.

checklist

Check U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index.

Check the direction of China PMI and resource prices.

Watch for comments from key figures in Australia and the U.S. and market reactions

looking back

A day of yen selling and dollar buying dominance following the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the yen unchanged

summary

While the Tokyo time was mainly a wait-and-see affair, the yen was clearly tilted toward depreciation in Europe and beyond.

Flow dominated by interest rate differentials after the BOJ meeting confirmed no change in policy

In New York, the rise in U.S. long-term interest rates also strengthened the dollar's bid.

Today's Price Movement

Dollar buying accelerates from European hours and moves above short-term milestones

On the other hand, some profit-taking selling was seen at the high end of the range, and prices settled down a bit at the end of the day.

Overall, the market was firm on the downside and closed on an upward trend.

Background & Materials

BOJ left monetary policy unchanged, statement also dovish, in line with market expectations

Tokyo Metropolitan Area CPI remained high, but no policy shift was seen, and yen depreciation pressure prevailed.

In the U.S., dollar buying was led by position adjustments ahead of PCE

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The upside is conscious in the recent high range, and the momentum of the break will be tested.

On the downside, the European time push zone acts as support

Short-term moving averages are up and the buy-dominant trend continues

Technical Memo (mid-term)

On a weekly basis, the trend continues to be near the upper end of the range, with limited sense of direction

Main support zone is maintained, and the medium-term trend remains in favor of a stronger dollar.

Oscillators remain slightly elevated, but overheating is still limited

impression

Despite signs of calm after the policy event, the yen selling trend seems to be persistent

A phase in which short-term direction is likely to change depending on U.S. interest rates and statements by foreign exchange authorities

Markets are moving to search for direction until the next event

trade observations

While caution is required to chase higher prices, there is a strong desire to buy at the pushpoints.

A mix of short-term gains and new position replacements

Be aware that price movements are likely to be rough during times of reduced liquidity

checklist

Check the results of the U.S. PCE deflator and interest rate trends

Check for statements by exchange authorities and government officials.

Understand the direction of flow through month-end rebalancing

looking back

Euro selling dominated by material outflows after ECB Board of Governors meeting left interest rates unchanged

summary

Price movements lacked a sense of direction from Tokyo to early Europe as the event was awaited.

After the Council meeting, a cautious statement was given and the euro weakened slowly

In New York, the dollar was bought on the back of rising U.S. interest rates, and the search for lower prices prevailed.

Today's Price Movement

Small movements continued in the European hour awaiting announcements, with euro selling progressing after the event passed

Dollar Steady in Early New York as U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates Rise

The market continued to haggle at the lower end of the day and closed at the low end of the day.

Background & Materials

ECB leaves policy rates unchanged and maintains price and growth outlook as before

The statement showed a cautious approach to the economic slowdown and slowing inflation

On the U.S. side, dollar buying is slowly progressing due to speculation ahead of PCE

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the return is restrained, and the market is conscious of the downward direction.

Continued to attack at the lower support zone and watch for risk of interruptions

Short-term moving averages continue to limit upside

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Weekly trend is hovering near the lower end of the range, making it difficult to get a sense of direction

Medium-term trend remains flat, but is likely to be linked to U.S. interest rate trends

Oscillators are near oversold levels, leaving room for short-term adjustment

impression

Euro Selling Settles After ECB Event Passage, but Momentum for Return Limited

Strong interest in U.S. interest rates and inflation indicators, and a composition that is likely to continue dollar-driven price movements

The market is in the process of looking for clues to get a sense of the next direction.

trade observations

Short-term return to the highs, but caution is needed to chase the lows.

Price movements after the event are converging, and we should avoid building unreasonable positions.

Given the decline in volatility, short-term trades focus on price range management.

checklist

Confirm US PCE data release and interest rate reaction

Check for ECB member statements and follow-up press coverage.

Watch for flow around London FIX and impact of month-end adjustments

looking back

Selling of the pound was predominant through European hours, and the dollar was bought against the backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates.

summary

Tokyo time was directionless, and the pound weakened slowly after entering Europe.

No notable support on the UK side, weighed down by fiscal concerns and a cautious stance ahead of the Bank of England meeting.

In New York, the dollar continued to trade in a lower range in response to rising U.S. interest rates

Today's Price Movement

In the European time, the return selling was predominant and the market was seen to fall below the milestone.

Pound under downward pressure as dollar buying trend strengthens in early New York

Returns were limited despite some position adjustment buying at the end of the day.

Background & Materials

Concerns about the fiscal outlook remained in the foreground as UK economic indicators showed no clear improvement

Speculation and cautious stance ahead of BoE meeting restrained pound buying

Rising interest rates in the U.S. are poised to support the dollar ahead of the PCE data.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Lower prices are supported at recent lows, forming a short term firmer relationship

The upper price is conscious of the return high as a resistance zone, and the rebound is limited.

Moving averages maintain downward trend and continue to be in a predominantly selling shape

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Still within a downtrend in the medium term

The focus is on whether the key support zone can be maintained, and if it is breached, downward pressure is likely to intensify.

Momentum is slightly weakening, but oversold sentiment is beginning to emerge

impression

Cautiousness ahead of the event makes it difficult for the pound to take a clear direction

Pound relatively weak as dollar-driven ground continues

Market attention is shifting to the BOE meeting and U.S. indices, giving the impression that position consolidation was prioritized.

trade observations

In the short term, a strategy centered on selling on the return is likely to be considered.

New positions are safe to take after the event passes and after confirming the direction of the market.

Be aware of widening spreads during times of reduced liquidity

checklist

U.S. PCE data release and interest rate trends

Check for press coverage and key figures' statements prior to the BOE meeting.

Watch for month-end rebalancing flows before and after the London FIX

looking back

Although buying was ahead in Tokyo time, the dollar was back in the market after Europe, and the dollar was bought in New York time.

summary

The buyback following the release of the Australian CPI paused, and a sense of material exhaustion weighed on the upside.

The Australian dollar came under downward pressure as the US dollar was bought against the backdrop of rising US interest rates.

The market continued to haggle in the lower range at the end of the day and closed with a lack of directional movement.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time: buying temporarily ahead, taking over from the post-Australian CPI

In the European session, the market was dominated by sellers returning to the market, and the upward trend was restrained near the milestone.

In the New York time, the dollar turned to a strong buying trend due to the awareness of rising U.S. interest rates.

Background & Materials

Sticky Australian Inflation Confirmed, but RBA Policy Stance Remains Status Quo

Weak Chinese manufacturing PMI results weighed on the AUD, with concerns over external demand

In the U.S., high interest rates will support the dollar ahead of the next day's PCE data

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The upside is restrained near the recent return highs, and short-term selling pressure remains.

Lower prices are aware of the previous day's support zone, and the tug-of-war between push-buyers and return sellers continues.

Short-term moving averages are flat and the direction is somewhat dull

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Medium-term trend still near lower end of range

Sustained Australian inflation and U.S. interest rate trends are themes that will determine the tone going forward.

Oscillators are in neutral territory, with limited overbought and oversold signals

impression

The Australian dollar's upward movement was noticeably heavy even after the passage of the inflation indicator, and the development was highly dependent on the external environment.

Weak Chinese economic indicators continue to weigh on the AUD and lack resilience in the short term

Cautious trading ahead of the event, a day with little sense of direction

trade observations

In the short term, the focus will be on selling back, but a policy of prioritizing profit-taking in the support zone will be effective.

Position sizes are kept low as they are easily swayed by pre- and post-event flows

Until there is a clear move above the upper resistance zone, we should be conscious of trading within the range.

checklist

Check US PCE data and interest rate reaction.

Watch for developments in Chinese indices and resource prices

Follow up on statements and market observations prior to RBA meeting