Market Summary

The previous day, the Bank of Japan meeting passed without incident, and the yen was conscious of the trend toward depreciation.

The dollar continues to buy favorably against the backdrop of high U.S. interest rates.

Today's schedule is a combination of the weekend and the end of the month, making it easy for flows, including rebalancing, to intermingle.

The focus will be on the balance of upward pressure and adjustment pressure, with little bias in one direction.

Assumed range

Lower limit is near the previous day's low and upper limit is in the range of recent highs

Likely to be linked to U.S. long-term interest rates and stock price movements, with gentle ups and downs expected throughout the day.

In the absence of major indicators or statements by key figures, the market may remain calm

tactics

Short-term push-buying dominance, but flexible, paying attention to month-end flows

Prioritize gains near milestones and follow-up entries sparingly.

In a move to test the upper end of the range, there is room to consider a return sale after confirming a rebound.

trigger

Focus on U.S. interest rate fluctuations and end-of-month adjustments by New Yorkers during overseas time zones

Upward movement would be if over-market is confirmed; downward movement would be due to selling pressure early in the European session

Tokyo time is likely to be dominated by actual demand flows, with limited sense of direction

override condition

If the milestone is clearly below and there is no buy-back reaction

Sharp decline in U.S. interest rates and a shift in the dollar's selling power

When unexpected position elimination proceeds due to month-end flows

risk event

Results of U.S. economic indicators (employment-related, inflation indicators, etc.)

Comments on exchange rate and price trends by the government and Bank of Japan

Impact of weekend and month-end specific cash flows and hedge adjustments

Position Management

Enter new entries in small lots and refrain from doing so during periods of low liquidity.

Take profits in stages before the market's milestone, and avoid overextension.

Losses are determined after clearly confirming the recent support/resistance breakdown.

checklist

Check the direction of U.S. long-term interest rates and the stock market from time to time

Watch for price movements in European hours and rebalancing trends in NY hours

Check for statements from Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance officials and observations of intervention.

Market Summary

Dollar buying prevailed the previous day on the back of rising U.S. long-term interest rates, pushing the euro lower

The ECB Council meeting confirmed that interest rates would remain unchanged, and the lack of surprises was perceived as a material outflow

With the weekend and the end of the month coinciding, the market is likely to be affected by flows related to actual demand and rebalancing.

Difficult to determine the direction of the market, and the market is likely to continue to struggle in the short term.

Assumed range

Lower limit near previous day's low, upper limit near recent return high

Narrow price range mainly expected against the backdrop of U.S. interest rates and stock market trends

Expect traffic until a clear breakout materializes.

tactics

Basic policy is to focus on selling on the return, but beware of a short-term rebound

Buybacks are more likely to occur in the lower price range, and a cautious response rather than following the momentum

Prepare to make entries in stages, assuming sudden changes before and after the release of an index.

trigger

Short-term key is the outcome of the U.S. PCE deflator and trends in U.S. Treasury yields

Beware of buybacks in European hours and flow turnaround in NY hours.

Short-term adjustment if the milestone is clearly exceeded; room for renewed selling pressure if it is below the milestone

override condition

Temporarily withdraw the sell-back policy if the support zone is maintained and the rebound trend strengthens

If U.S. interest rates fall back and the dollar is predominantly sold

Priority is given to adjusting positions if transitory movements due to flow factors are followed too closely.

risk event

U.S. PCE deflator published

Reports on key figures' statements and monetary policy

Sudden flows due to month-end and weekend position adjustments

Position Management

Keep position size small and consider increasing or decreasing after the event passes

Profit-taking is split before a milestone, and loss-taking is determined by the most recent upper and lower limits.

Limit leverage and risk during periods of increased volatility

checklist

Check US PCE data and interest rate reaction.

Observe whether or not the euro is being bought back in European time

Note rebalancing and month-end flows of fund forces.

Market Summary

Dollar buying prevailed the day before as U.S. interest rates rose and the pound tested the downside

A day of dollar-driven price action with little material in the U.K.

With the weekend and the end of the month coinciding, the phase in which flows are likely to increase due to actual demand and rebalancing

Environment in which directionality is difficult to obtain and price movements are likely to be sporadic in the short term

Assumed range

The lower limit is the previous day's low, and the upper limit is near the recent return high.

U.S. interest rates and stock price movements are expected to determine the range of the range.

Price movements are likely to be limited due to major events coming up

tactics

Basic policy is to focus on selling on returns and be cautious about short-term push-backs

Prioritize gains near the milestone and avoid going too deep.

Refrain from making new entries during times when liquidity is likely to be low, and move only after confirming the reaction.

trigger

Focus is on flow diversion in European hours and price movements before and after the release of U.S. indices.

Upside is due to a combination of falling U.S. interest rates and rising equities; downside is due to risk-off and continued dollar strength

Be wary of rebalancing-related fluctuations around London FIX

override condition

Temporarily withdraw the sell-back strategy if the price remains lower and the rebound continues

Assume range reversion if U.S. interest rates stabilize and dollar buying slows

If the pound buying ground strengthens clearly in European hours

risk event

U.S. PCE deflator published

Reports on UK monetary policy statements and next week's central bank meeting

Movements of funds and hedge adjustments specific to month-end and weekend

Position Management

Lot is set up small, consider rebuilding after the event

Profit taking is split before the milestone, and stop-losses are executed when the recent upper and lower limits are clearly below the upper and lower limits.

Reduce open interest and limit risk when volatility rises

checklist

Confirmation of movement in the dollar index and U.S. interest rates after the release of U.S. PCE data.

Observe flow changes in European time and direction around London FIX

Check for reports and key figures' statements in anticipation of next week's BOE meeting.

Market Summary

The previous day, the Australian dollar was restrained on the upside as dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates.

Buying interest from the strong Australian CPI results has run its course, and the momentum of the Australian dollar's appreciation has slowed down.

China-related news and resource price fluctuations weighing on the market

With the end of the month and the weekend coinciding, price movements due to flow factors are likely to be noticeable.

Assumed range

The lower limit is the previous day's low, and the upper limit is near the recent return high.

Easily linked to the direction of U.S. interest rates and the stock market, mainly oscillating within a range

Calm price movements are expected in the short term ahead of the event

tactics

Basic policy is to focus on selling on the return, and to respond cautiously to a short-term rebound.

When aiming for a push, be ready to enter after confirming the momentum and time frame of the rebound

Do not follow noisy price movements before and after events, and wait and see until you get a sense of direction.

trigger

U.S. interest rate trends and U.S. PCE deflator results will determine the continuation of dollar buying

Changes in the Chinese market and resource prices are also a short-term trigger to watch.

Wary of ups and downs due to month-end flows around London FIX

override condition

If the lower price is maintained and the Australian dollar turns into a dominant buy, the return strategy will be temporarily withdrawn.

If U.S. interest rates fall back and the dollar selling ground strengthens

If positive reports related to China lead to widespread buying of the Australian dollar

risk event

U.S. PCE deflator published

Officials' remarks and monetary policy outlook ahead of RBA meeting

Reports on Chinese economy-related statistics and the authorities' policy stance

Position Management

Set position size conservatively and increase/decrease after confirming the direction after the event

Gains are split before the milestone, and losses are set based on the most recent upper and lower limits.

Limit risk by reducing open interest when price movements become violent

checklist

Confirm reaction to US PCE data and US interest rates

Monitor China-related news and resource price trends

Watch for impact of month-end flows around London FIX

looking back

The yen was selling well from Tokyo to Europe, but failed to cross the previous day's high, and in New York, the wait-and-see attitude strengthened and the market lacked a sense of direction.

summary

Dollar remained strong and yen weak after the BOJ event, but upside was limited

New York time was generally small as the market was waiting for the U.S. interest rate trend

With the end of the month and the weekend coinciding, price movements were only adjustment and flow-driven.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time: yen selling prevails and rises moderately

European hours stalled with a test of the previous day's high but failed to break through.

In New York, the price range was limited and remained flat as U.S. long-term interest rates settled

Background & Materials

After confirmation of BOJ's policy unchanged, lack of additional material and a round of reactions

A pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates also curbed dollar buying momentum

Temporary movements due to month-end rebalancing and actual demand flows were scattered.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around the previous day's high price was recognized as an upside resistance and fell back

Short-term moving averages remain flat and directionless

While it was easy to buy at the pushpoint, follow-up buying was limited

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The dollar continues to appreciate and the yen continues to weaken, but the momentum has slowed somewhat

Key support is holding and no turnaround in the flow itself is confirmed

Differences in U.S. interest rates and policy stance remain supportive in the medium term

impression

I have the impression that the major material has run its course and we are now in the time zone for searching for the next direction.

The end of the month and the weekend also contributed to limited price movements, but the market was easily swayed by the flow.

trade observations

There was no momentum to the upside, and in the short term, there were some occasions when we were aware of a return to the market.

Although there was still a sense of buying at the pushpoint, many were cautious about following suit

checklist

Check trends in U.S. interest rates and government bond auctions

Be aware of month-end and weekend flow bias.

Be aware of key support and the previous day's high

looking back

The day was lackluster from Tokyo to Europe, with selling intensifying in New York and closing at the lower end of the range.

summary

Weak price indicators in the Eurozone and the perception of an early interest rate cut weighed on the upside.

Dollar buying prevailed after the release of the U.S. inflation index, and temporary returns were limited.

Today's Price Movement

The Tokyo session remained on a wait-and-see tone, with prices moving slightly.

The price was gradually restrained to the upside after European hours, and fell further in New York, falling below the previous day's low.

Although there was a subsequent downside movement, it did not lead to a major return, and the market closed at a lower level.

Background & Materials

Eurozone inflation indicators fell short of expectations, and the market's view of the policy rate outlook eased somewhat.

U.S. consumer spending and price-related indicators were generally within expectations, and U.S. long-term interest rates were seen declining, leading to a brief dollar sell-off.

However, weakness in the euro prevailed and returns were limited.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The downward trend continued on the hourly time frame, and the market was unable to break above the milestone resistance zone.

The return after the low was held back near the 200 MA and there was no clear sign of a trend change.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The 4-hour trend of lower highs and lows continues, and the shape of the market is likely to be conscious of a return to the upside.

On the daily basis, the area around the 20EMA is considered as an upside resistance, and downward pressure remains.

impression

I feel that the market was difficult for buyers to move as the momentum did not continue to test the return both in terms of materials and charts.

On the other hand, it was difficult to get a sense of direction while reacting to each indicator rather than one-sided selling.

trade observations

Entry was conscious of confirming selling momentum during the return phase, but the price range was limited.

In many cases, position management was important, as it was necessary to watch for a rebound at each milestone even when chasing lower prices.

checklist

Check for weak returns after important indicators.

Check the volume and candlestick shape near the milestone.

Continue to check interest rate trends and bond market reactions in the U.S. and Europe.

looking back

The market continued to move slightly from Tokyo to Europe, with selling prevailing in the New York time frame, and the price was slightly below the previous day's low.

summary

Although the market was directionless for a long period of time, a temporary downward push was made in the New York time.

After testing the lower price, buyers returned to the market and closed the trading session with a small return.

Today's Price Movement

The market was in a wait-and-see attitude as prices remained in a narrow range in the early going.

Selling intensified in the New York time and the price temporarily fell lower, but returned to a recovery trend by the close.

A small entity with a whisker remained on the daily chart, and directionality was limited.

Background & Materials

The upside was restrained by a slowdown in U.K. economic growth and a cautious view of public finances.

On the other hand, on the U.S. side, views on monetary policy were mixed, with the dollar's strength and weakness intermittently shifting.

The materials themselves were not new, and the market was waiting for clues.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

On the daily basis, there are whiskers on both the upside and the downside, indicating a lack of directional shape.

While a test to the downside is likely in the short term, a return after a break below the low is also confirmed.

The deviation from the moving average is not large and the short-term trend is not clear.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market is still in an adjustment phase from the highs, and the view remains that the market will return to the highs.

No major trend reversal has been confirmed as the market continues to attack and defend near key support.

The market continues to remain within a range, and the sense of medium-term holding is increasing.

impression

The lack of materials combined with a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the weekend made for a day lacking in positive cues.

Although it tested the downward direction, the momentum was limited, and the fact that it did not lean too far in one direction was impressive.

The entire market appears to be looking for the next decision.

trade observations

Although there was a follow-up move after seeing a break below the low, the price action was difficult for short-term forces as the return was too quick.

The trend direction was difficult to define, and unreasonable positions could easily lead to risk.

I feel that it would have been more effective to maintain a clear break wait.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule of important indicators and key figures' statements?

Are you aware of key support and resistance levels?

Are you comfortable with position size and risk management?

looking back

Although selling was prevalent from Tokyo to Europe, the previous day's low was not broken, and in New York, the price movement was small with no sense of direction.

summary

The resilience of the U.S. dollar and concerns about the Chinese economy weighed on the Australian dollar, which tested the downside but failed to break below.

The market was in a strong wait-and-see attitude waiting for the next material, and it was difficult to get a clear sense of direction throughout the day.

Today's Price Movement

From the beginning of the Tokyo session, Australian dollar selling prevailed and tested the downward direction.

In Europe, the market stopped lower near the previous day's lows, followed by a mix of sell-backs and buy-backs.

In New York, the price range was limited while keeping an eye on U.S. interest rates and stock price trends.

Background & Materials

The prospect of higher U.S. interest rates and the resilience of the U.S. dollar restrained the Australian dollar's upward movement.

Uncertainty over Chinese economic indicators and resource prices dampened Australian dollar buying momentum.

In Australia, despite a slight recession in interest rate cut speculation, concerns about an economic slowdown continued to be a concern.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The area around the previous day's low was recognized as support, and the market failed to clearly break below it, resulting in a rebound trend.

The upside was heavy near the short-term moving average and the return high, and there were scattered returns.

Volatility is shrinking and remains within a range in the short term.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The market has remained within a certain range for several weeks and continues to lack direction.

The medium-term moving averages are trending sideways and no clear signs of a trend reversal have been seen.

The next focus of market attention will be on whether to exit the upper or lower end of the range.

impression

The reaction to the materials was slow, giving the impression that the market was waiting for the next decision material.

Although lacking a sense of direction, we feel it is worth noting that the firmness of the lower price is being recognized.

trade observations

In the short term, the market did not extend either up or down, and there were many occasions when traders were conscious of trading with a limited price range.

The day was dominated by sellers closing before support and small buybacks.

checklist

Maintain key support?

Are there any changes in U.S. interest rates or the U.S. dollar index?

Are there any new China-related indicators or risk trends?