Market Summary

While U.S. interest rates remain high, the outlook for monetary policy in Europe remains uncertain due to slowing inflation and concerns of an economic slowdown.

The previous day was a day of lackluster materials and a lack of clear direction in both Europe and the U.S., resulting in a narrow price range.

Today is a difficult day to read participants' movements as Japan is closed and liquidity is likely to be low and the U.S. market has just shifted to winter time.

U.S. indicators and U.S. interest rate trends tend to spill over to European currencies, making direction more dependent on external factors.

Assumed range

Around the low 1.06 to low 1.07 area.

We expect an environment of mixed returns and pushes, with no decisive moves either up or down.

We note that volatility may increase depending on movements in U.S. interest rates and stock markets.

tactics

The basic idea is range rotation.

We will focus on short-term swings with an eye to both return and pushback.

Do not follow sudden price movements too closely, and prioritize confirmation of reversal.

trigger

The upside will be determined by whether the 1.07 level is established.

On the downside, watch for a continuation below 1.06.

We will keep in mind the time frame when changes in the U.S. ISM and U.S. interest rates will affect the overall flow of European currencies.

override condition

A clear break above the 1.07 midpoint would break the assumption of a return.

If the price continues to fall below the first half of 1.06, the range assumption will be revised.

We will also reconsider our tactics in the event of widening spreads or continuous long legs.

risk event

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index.

Position adjustment in preparation for the U.S. employment data later in the week.

Sudden headline risk from statements by key figures and interest rate movements.

Position Management

Position size is set more conservatively than usual.

Set interest rates short, and be aware of early handing out if there is a sign of a reversal.

Losses are executed mechanically, with room outside the expected range.

checklist

Movements in U.S. interest rates and the dollar index.

The directionality of major stock indices and the strength of risk appetite.

Liquidity and spread changes in European and US time.

Market Summary

Amid a wait-and-see tone ahead of the U.S. index, the previous day was dominated by selling and remained at the low end of the range.

Economic indicators in the Eurozone provide only limited support, and the main focus is on monetary policy observations on the dollar side.

Although there are signs of a bottoming out, the momentum of return is weak and lacks a sense of direction.

Assumed range

The downside is expected to be near the psychological node, while the upside is expected to be back to the recent highs.

Until there is clear material, the market is expected to swing mainly within a range.

Be prepared for a flow turnaround in the US time zone if necessary.

tactics

While selling on the return is the basic policy, short-term buybacks will be considered if the downward trend continues.

Avoid excessive positioning and use range rotation if the direction is not set.

We will focus on flow changes from European to U.S. hours.

trigger

The results of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the immediate reaction to the announcement will be the initial determining factor.

Downside is a break below the previous day's low, while upside is a review of the policy with a new high on the return.

Any European indicators or key figures' statements will be confirmed as short-term volatility factors.

override condition

If the market continues to clearly renew the lows, the advantage of a return to the market will be broken.

Conversely, if the high is exceeded, the lower line will reset once and return to flat.

If the volume or price movement is extremely light, do not rush to judgment and choose to wait and see.

risk event

U.S. ISM manufacturing index, U.S. ADP employment report, and U.S. employment statistics later in the week.

European indicators such as Eurozone retail sales could also trigger a market turnaround.

With the U.S. market returning to normal hours, be aware of changes in liquidity and differences in perception of trading hours.

Position Management

Position size is kept lower than usual to provide extra capacity for sudden fluctuations.

Profit-taking should be based near the upper and lower limits of the range, and deep profit-taking should be avoided.

The policy is to mechanically execute a stop-loss when a clear breakout of a milestone is achieved.

checklist

Confirmation of US ISM release time and initial market reaction

Know whether the previous day's low or return high has been renewed or not

Note the trading hours of the U.S. market after the end of daylight saving time.

Market Summary

While the U.S. business confidence index is expected to be released, the U.K. monetary policy meeting in the second half of the week will remain a source of concern

The previous day, buyers returned from a test of the downside, and the downward momentum was limited despite lack of direction

US market trading hours have returned to normal, and the market needs to be careful of liquidity changes depending on the time of day.

Assumed range

1.31 upper half to 1.32 lower half

To the downside, be aware of whether or not there is a break below the recent lows.

To the upside, last week's return high is targeted as the upper boundary.

tactics

Market with room for buying at the pushpoint while selling on the return is the basic policy.

Rotate in the short term while watching for rebound and stall within the range

Avoid unreasonably following the market, and focus on slowing price movements and signs of reversal.

trigger

Consider continuation of upward momentum if the pair clearly breaks above the 1.32s

Sell-driven trend if the price moves below the 1.31 level.

Initial decisions will be based on the U.S. ISM manufacturing and price movements after the start of European hours.

override condition

If the price settles above the mid-1.32s without a new low

If the price remains quiet and directionless regardless of the time of day

When positions are largely unwound due to speculation contrary to policy expectations

risk event

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

UK monetary policy meeting later in the week

Statements from major central bank officials and trends in U.S. interest rates

Position Management

Lot sizes are kept lower than usual, and new lots are opened cautiously before and after the index.

Interest gains are made in stages at the upper and lower bounds of the range and at the most recent return/push point.

Losses are quickly dealt with when a milestone is clearly exceeded.

checklist

1.31 units of support are maintained?

Dollar Reaction and Relative Strength of the British Pound after the U.S. ISM

Market position tilts toward UK policy events later in the week

Market Summary

The Australian dollar continues to test the downside but remain resilient ahead of the Bank of Australia meeting.

With the shift to normal hours in the U.S., the release of indicators and changes in trading hours are likely to bias price movements by time zone.

The direction of the market is difficult to determine as we await indicators and policies from both Australia and the U.S., and the market is likely to swing up and down in the short term.

Assumed range

Around 0.6480 to 0.6560.

While there is a hint of buying interest on the downside, the impression is that we are waiting for the right materials to make a big return.

Due to the environment in which it is difficult to find a clear direction, we assume that the market will remain within a range.

tactics

Our basic stance is to prioritize buying at the push point, but be aware of gains at the upper end of the range.

We will keep our positions light until the Australian Central Bank announcement and avoid following the index too deeply until we see the direction after the index.

It is advisable to participate in a size that can tolerate temporary reversals in case of sudden fluctuations.

trigger

To the upside, consider following if the price clearly exceeds the 0.6560 area.

On the downside, we are aware of a change in the flow below 0.6480 and need to revise our push-buy strategy.

Be careful of momentary fluctuations during the time of the Bank of Australia policy rate announcement and the U.S. ISM manufacturing index release.

override condition

We will consider withdrawing from the buy line once it breaks below 0.6460 and switch back to sell.

If the Bank of Australia statement shows a hawkish retreat or weak economic assessment, a push-back strategy will be less likely to be established.

Even if U.S. indicators strengthen dollar buying, it will be difficult to continue at the upper end of the assumed range.

risk event

Bank of Australia Policy Rate and Statement.

U.S. ISM manufacturing index and subsequent U.S. interest rate trends.

Dollar led by U.S. employment-related indicators in the second half of the week.

Position Management

Immediately prior to the index, open interest is reduced and then rebuilt after viewing the results.

The profit target is near the mid to upper end of the range, and the stop loss is assumed to be clearly below 0.6460.

During periods of increased volatility, position sizes should be kept smaller than normal.

checklist

The Bank of Australia's policy decisions and statements.

US index release time and market reaction.

Price movements and liquidity changes over the Asia-NY time period.

looking back

From Tokyo to Europe, the market lacked a sense of direction, and although the dollar was temporarily sold off after the U.S. index, it was bought back and the price movement was calm overall.

summary

While caution about U.S. monetary policy continued, no major trend emerged amid awareness of the accommodative stance on the Japanese side.

Price movements were limited while swinging up and down, and the day was also marked by the participants' forbearance attitude.

The market remained directionless, with a mix of dollar buying and adjustment selling.

Today's Price Movement

The Tokyo session was small due to a lack of materials, and the market continued to move within a range.

European hours were similarly limited in price range, with no clear buying or selling momentum.

Although there was a reaction immediately after the U.S. economic indicators, a move back to the original level soon prevailed.

Background & Materials

In the U.S., uncertainty about monetary policy remained, and it was difficult to determine the timing of interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the Japanese monetary environment remained accommodative, and interest rate differentials continued to support the dollar.

Geopolitical risks and a calmer stock market also limited yen buying as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market continued to hover in a high price range, with the upper price being considered but not broken through.

The market continued to hover near the moving average line, and the push-back and sell-back continued.

The oscillator-based indicators showed limited signs of overheating, and momentum bias was modest.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the momentum is moderating while maintaining an upward trend.

The move to higher prices paused and entered an adjustmental price range between the milestones.

The main support line is holding and no clear turning sign has been seen.

impression

The market remained unbiased in one direction, giving the impression that the market as a whole was maintaining a cautious stance.

With limited materials, participants' attention seems to be focused on upcoming U.S. economic indicators and key figures' statements.

The market continued to trade under low volatility and was dominated by short-term forces.

trade observations

Entries were mainly made within the range, and the scene was to avoid unreasonable follow-through.

It was difficult to see the direction of the market, and many decisions were made to keep position holding times short.

It was a day of limited swings and a day that called for trading with limited risk.

checklist

Have you checked the price movement characteristics when materials are scarce?

Are you aware of the difference between short and medium term trends?

Did you record a reaction and return before and after the release of the indicator?

looking back

It fell during European hours and fell below the previous day's lows, but then converged slightly after the U.S. index, interspersed with a temporary rebound.

summary

Overall, the market lacked a sense of direction, with a mixture of return selling and push-buying.

The dollar swung before and after the U.S. indexes, but the persistence was weak and the price movement was calm at the end of the day.

With a lack of strong materials, the market seems to be searching for the next decision-making factor.

Today's Price Movement

The Asian session was in a narrow range, with a slight selling trend prevailing after the start of the European session.

Although the market fell further in early U.S. hours, it was bought back after the indexes and narrowed its decline.

Toward the end of the day, both the ups and downs lacked momentum and the return was limited.

Background & Materials

Ahead of the U.S. economic indicators, dollar buying was predominantly recognized amid a lack of direction.

Cautiousness about the European economy and lower European bond yields also weighed on the euro.

U.S. interest rates remained high, and there was some risk-averse demand for dollars.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The highs and lows continued to be cut off, and the upward pressure was felt on the upside.

The mid-1.15s could easily serve as a guideline for a return, and the psychological milestone was close enough to lack momentum for a break above.

The market remained below the short-term moving average, and even during the rebound phase, it was noticeably pushed back.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The medium-term weakening trend continues, but the broad picture remains in a firmer zone.

Whether the recovery of the 1.16 level will take hold is seen as a key factor in determining the medium-term direction of the market.

The weekly trend is seen as being within the range of adjustment and has not led to any extreme movements.

impression

While there is a lack of major material, there is some movement to test the top and bottom of the market.

The impression is that most participants are maintaining a short-term stance as they wait for the next event.

Volatility has been suppressed and the market continues to be difficult to price.

trade observations

It was a day when it was difficult to have a clear sense of direction, as there was room for both return selling and push-buying.

The reaction immediately after the index was temporary, and there seemed to be some wiggle room when following the index.

My impression is that the attitude of not forcing the direction of the market and targeting only those situations where the price range was high was effective.

checklist

Reaction of interest rates to the results of U.S. economic indicators

Changes in European economic indicators and market sentiment

Trends in major stock indices and bond markets

looking back

From Tokyo to Europe, the wait-and-see phase continued, and although the pound was temporarily bought after the U.S. index, the price movement was limited to a small round-trip afterwards.

summary

There were long periods of lack of direction and limited amplitude across the U.S. index.

While there were signs of improvement in U.K. economic indicators, fiscal uncertainty was a factor limiting upside.

The U.S. dollar remained generally resilient and did not move in an accelerated manner, but instead remained calm during the day.

Today's Price Movement

Asian hours remained in a narrow range amid material difficulties.

The European session did not bring any major direction, and the U.S. indices led to a temporary tilt toward selling the dollar.

The price then returned to its previous level, eventually ending the day on a "go" note.

Background & Materials

In the U.K., manufacturing-related data was reported to have improved, but the reaction was limited due to doubts about its sustainability.

Statements about fiscal policy and a sense of caution about tax burdens were a source of upward pressure on the pound.

On the U.S. side, demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset remained supportive and did not lead to aggressive dollar selling.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Although there was a temporary buyback, the upside was held back by a return to the market.

The market continued to attack and defend around the major moving averages, making it difficult to see direction.

On the shorter time frames, the highs and lows were mixed and did not lead to a clear trend.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the upward momentum is slowing and the pound is becoming slightly more aware of its weight.

The inability to make new recent highs has led some to caution against a turn in the trend.

On the other hand, the lower price is also supported at a certain level and is within the firmer range.

impression

With little sense of direction, reactions to materials tended to be transient.

With limited upward and downward price ranges, the impression was that risk management was prioritized over excessive expectations.

In an environment where momentum is difficult to generate, I felt the need to broaden my perspective and check both fundamental and technical aspects.

trade observations

Price movements were difficult to extend, and careful judgment was required to secure short-term gains.

Although it was possible to ride the reaction after the U.S. indexes, it was difficult to follow the market deeply because of the quick recovery.

We felt it was important to be flexible and aware of milestones and indicator releases, rather than relying on momentum.

checklist

Have you checked key economic indicators and scheduled government statements?

Do you have a clear understanding of the upper resistance zone and lower support zone?

Are position sizes and stop-loss levels set appropriately?

looking back

Although the Tokyo time was dominated by buyers, the market turned to sell after the European time, and after testing a temporary low in the New York time, the market was bought back and the downward trend was narrowed.

summary

A tug-of-war between the recession in Australia and high interest rates in the U.S. continued, resulting in a lack of sense of direction

Although there was a test to the downside, buyers returned to the market at the end of the day, and a certain level of support was recognized.

No clear trend was reached, and the market remained in a wait-and-see mode for the next material.

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo, buyers bought from the lows and were aware of a test to the upside

In Europe, the dollar was the dominant buyer, and the flow was tilted to the downside

In New York, after a further downward push, the market was bought back and the price returned to its previous level.

Background & Materials

The Australian dollar was supported by the growing expectation that monetary easing in Australia would be postponed for the time being.

On the other hand, in the U.S., the high-interest-rate environment was recognized and the pressure to buy the dollar remained strong.

Slowing growth in Australian household spending and uncertainty about the global economy also contributed to cautious investor sentiment.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Around 0.6510 acted as a lower price to be aware of, and a rebound was seen on a break below this level

The upside remained sluggish around 0.6570, and the market remained range-bound in the short term.

Short-term moving averages are flat and momentum is limited

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the 0.6600 level cannot be recovered, and the trend of return selling is continuing

The lower price has been tested multiple times but has not been broken, and resilience is also present.

A clear move above the upper resistance is required to determine direction

impression

Despite reactions to each material, the overall trend is still difficult to define, and the impression is that participants continue to be cautious.

Supply-demand bias is small, and there is a strong sense of waiting for the next monetary policy or indicator

It is felt that this is a phase where confirmation of price movement habits, support and weight are prioritized rather than aggressive pursuit

trade observations

There was some movement to get short-term reactions to index releases and key figures' statements, but the follow-up price range was limited.

Even if the downward trend is followed, a rebound is likely to occur near the support, and a cautious approach was required for the return sale.

Positions were not held too long, and profit and withdrawal decisions had to be made frequently.

checklist

Did you see the reaction near key support?

Are you aware of Australian and U.S. monetary policy-related statements and indicators?

Are you aware of the risk of trading in non-trending phases?