Market Summary

Although the dollar was temporarily sold after the U.S. economic indicators, it was bought back, and the situation continues to lack a sense of direction.

While investors are aware of the temperature difference between the BOJ's gradual stance and the U.S. monetary policy, the authorities' caution to intervene is restraining upside.

With U.S. economic indicators and statements from key figures coming up today, the market's reaction to the interest rate trend will be the focus of attention.

Assumed range

We expect the price to move up and down around the late ¥153 to mid ¥154 area.

There is a strong sense that a clear break is awaited for materials, and we would refrain from following the market excessively until we get a sense of direction.

Prepare for the possibility of a change in the short-term trend if there is a move out to either the upside or downside.

tactics

The basic idea is to be aware of range rotation, but to be cautious and not follow extreme swings.

Priority is given to short-term rotation with limited price range, in preparation for both push-back and return sales.

In the intervention alert zone, we should be cautious about new purchases and wait for a return to the market.

trigger

The short-term trend divergence is above the recent high area on the upside and below the previous day's low on the downside.

The results of the U.S. ISM and employment-related indicators may change market sentiment, so watch for price movements before and after the announcements.

Real demand flows in Tokyo time, and US interest rates and stock futures in Europe and beyond will be the deciding factors.

override condition

A clear break below the lower limit of the range, with return selling prevailing.

On the upside, if there is a sharp selloff accompanied by interventionist speculation, the buy line of sight will be reset.

If price movement is lackluster even after the indicator, consider revising short-term strategies or remain quiet.

risk event

U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index, ADP employment, and remarks by key U.S. officials.

BOJ minutes released, comments related to intervention by the Ministry of Finance.

Risk aversion flows due to geopolitical risks and sudden changes in the stock market.

Position Management

The size is kept modest, maintaining sufficient capacity to respond to sudden changes in the market.

Gains will be picked up reliably, even in small amounts, and the decision to extend will be made after checking interest rates and post-index reactions.

Limit losses based on recent return highs and push lows, and do not chase too deeply.

checklist

Have you checked the results of U.S. economic indicators and the reaction of U.S. interest rates?

Are you aware of headlines related to statements and interventions by Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan officials?

Are the position size and stop loss line within the expected range?

Market Summary

In Europe, the day was marked by a wait-and-see mood ahead of key figures' statements and U.S. employment-related indicators.

After falling below the previous day's lows, the Eurodollar temporarily sold off the dollar to the downside in response to U.S. indicators.

Thereafter, there was a buy-back but lacked a sense of direction, and the market remained calm as a whole.

The market continues to confirm the sluggishness of the return while there is a deep-rooted awareness to the downside.

Assumed range

Today, we expect the price to move in the neighborhood of late 1.09 to early 1.10.

The ability to break out of both the upper and lower levels is limited and we are still waiting for clues.

There is mixed awareness of return pressure on the upside and pushback on the downside.

tactics

Our basic stance is to prioritize selling on the return.

If there is a sudden rebound, check the momentum of the price movement and follow it cautiously.

It is important to avoid forced contrarianism and to watch for reactions near the milestone.

trigger

The initial decision will be based on whether the market will break above the previous day's return high area during the European hour.

To the downside, the flow is likely to accelerate if the recent lows are clearly broken down.

Note that the market is likely to swing in the short term depending on the content of U.S. employment-related indicators and statements by key figures.

override condition

If the highs are maintained above the milestone, the return scenario will be broken.

If the buyback continues after the indicator and the downside concerns ease, the tactic should be revised.

If the closing price is well above the milestone, we will look for a change in direction.

risk event

Data on the strength or weakness of the U.S. economy, such as the number of U.S. JOLTS jobs and service sector-related indicators.

Remarks by ECB officials and references to their monetary policy stance.

Risk aversion due to the situation in the Middle East and oil price swings.

Position Management

Position size is kept smaller than usual to prepare for sudden fluctuations.

Gains will be made in stages around the nearest support/resistance area.

Losses will be handled mechanically at the timing when the milestone is clearly passed.

checklist

Confirmation of price movement and return momentum during European hours.

Reaction after US indicators and the strength of downward pressure.

Signs of risk aversion due to key figures' statements and geopolitical news.

Market Summary

While UK economic indicators are showing signs of picking up, the situation remains limited in terms of direction ahead of the Bank of England's decision.

In the U.S., the focus on private-sector indicators has increased to compensate for delays in official statistics, and swings in interest rate observations are limiting the dollar's upside.

Although the previous day saw a temporary dollar sell-off in response to U.S. indicators, it did not lead to a major trend after the back-and-forth, and the market remains in a range.

Assumed range

The lower limit is assumed to be near the previous day's push, and the upper limit near the recent return high.

Assuming an environment where a clear sense of direction is difficult to find, the market will be conscious of the range formed by price movements in the European hours.

tactics

The basic policy is to assume a range rotation, but to focus on reverse direction by pulling back to the milestone.

If acceleration in one direction is observed, do not follow it forcibly, and prioritize a wait-and-see attitude for the next return or push.

trigger

On the upside, look for a short-term buyback if a move above the previous day's high area is made during European hours.

On the downside, watch for a downward push if the Asian session lows are broken or the reaction from the European indicators is weak.

Revised U.K. services PMI and U.S. ISM indicators could trigger a change.

override condition

The range strategy is reset once a momentum price movement clearly exceeds the expected range.

On the downside, a significant break below the push candidate and a weak return would require a correction in the line of sight.

If the post-index movement reverses rapidly, avoid making a decision to follow the initial move.

risk event

Breakdown of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and the number of votes.

Revised results of the U.K. Service Sector Index.

Changes in interest rate observations due to US ISM and employment-related indicators.

Position Management

Position size starts at half the normal size and is adjusted incrementally at each knot.

Set the interest rate short and adjust it later only if it grows.

Losses are mechanically executed a few points beyond the milestone.

checklist

Confirming the market reaction to the U.K. Services PMI Confirmation Report

Results of U.S. Private Indicators and Overall Dollar Movement

Position bias and speculative tilt before the Bank of England meeting

Market Summary

The Bank of Australia left its policy rate unchanged, a situation that maintains a neutral stance, referring to the stickiness of inflation and the strength of demand.

In the U.S., the dollar has remained firm and the return of the Australian dollar has been limited, as investors are aware of a delay in rate cut speculation.

The previous day, the price temporarily tested lower in the New York time, but was somewhat calm at the end of the day as buyers returned to the market.

Assumed range

A small range around the 0.6500-0.6550 area is expected.

It is difficult to find clear material on either the upside or downside, and the firings are likely to continue around the milestone.

A push from U.S. indicators and Australia-related headlines will be needed to give a sense of direction.

tactics

The basic stance is to rotate the range, and be conscious of entering the market only after confirming the reaction near the milestone.

Buy on the downside and sell on the upside with a prudent combination of push-back and sell on the upside.

When price range is limited, avoid deep pursuit and prioritize securing profits in the short term.

trigger

The upside is conditional on a clear break above 0.6550 and consolidation.

The downside is below 0.6500, especially if it takes hold after NY time, which is a warning point.

Attention should also be paid to the timing of the release of the Australian PMI and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

override condition

If the price continues to hold higher with a push above 0.6550.

Or, if the decline continues without a return after the break below 0.6500, the range assumption will be revised.

Sudden changes due to large flows or statements by key figures can also disrupt the assumption.

risk event

Preliminary Australian Services PMI and Composite PMI.

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Trade Balance.

Statements from RBA officials and business news related to China.

Position Management

Position size is more modest than usual and adjusted in steps according to the price range.

Take profits just before a milestone, and avoid unreasonable pullbacks.

Stop-losses should be placed shallowly outside the expected range to allow room for re-entry.

checklist

Confirming the balance of forces between the Australian dollar's return and pushback

Monitor price movements and volume changes before and after the release of Australian and U.S. indices

Check the shape of the whiskers and candlesticks near the milestone and whether there is a rebound

looking back

The yen was predominantly bought during the Tokyo session, and the recovery was slow from Europe to New York, closing at a lower level overall.

summary

The dollar/yen lacked a sense of direction and the upward pressure was felt, and the adjustment-dominated trend continued.

The market was holding back from aggressive trading while exploring the outlook for U.S. economic indicators and monetary policy.

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo hours, the yen was bid ahead, followed by a series of small amplitudes in the European and New York hours.

Toward the end of the day, buybacks were limited and the market remained at a low level.

Background & Materials

Concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and the outlook for monetary policy were a factor limiting the dollar's upward movement.

On the other hand, there was no change in the Bank of Japan's easing stance, and there were few positive buying opportunities for the yen.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the downward trend was conscious and the return phase was limited.

On the downside, a test of the recent lows was warranted, while on the upside, selling was likely to occur near the milestone.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market continues to be range-bound and the trend is not yet clear.

Even on the upside, highs are limited and the market continues to remain in a holding pattern.

impression

Although there were many materials, the market was unable to decide on a direction, and the entire market was inclined to wait and see.

The price range is narrow and there is an impression of a cautious attitude prevailing among participants.

trade observations

It was easy to aim for a return to the market, but there were times when it was difficult to make profit-taking decisions due to a lack of momentum.

It was felt that it would be more effective to respond in small increments, checking milestones, rather than forcibly following.

checklist

Check the schedule for the release of U.S. economic indicators.

Be prepared for statements and reports related to the Bank of Japan

Observe reactions and changes in volume at milestone levels

looking back

The euro was unable to return and tested the downward direction, as the dollar was predominantly bought against the backdrop of interest rate speculation in the U.S. and Europe.

summary

The euro continued to move higher as U.S. interest rates remained high and the European side was conscious of the lack of materials

A slight recovery was seen in the European hour, but after the second half of the London session, the sell-off intensified again and the market remained soft throughout the day.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time started with a lack of directional movement, continuing the trend of the previous day.

The return was slow in European hours, and the market slowly moved downward while the upward trend was restrained.

Selling was further intensified in the U.S. hours, and the market closed at the low end of the range

Background & Materials

Expectations of an early easing of U.S. monetary policy receded and long-term interest rates remained high, supporting the U.S. dollar

On the European side, slowing inflation and weak economic indicators provided limited additional support for the currency

Geopolitical uncertainties and cautious stock markets also contributed to risk aversion

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the upward trend continued, and it was easy to be aware of a return to the market.

Although there were signs of a stop near the milestone, the upward movement was limited and the market weakened until the end of the day.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The rebound phase that began in the second half of October has paused, and the downward trend is beginning to be recognized again.

In the medium term, the focus is likely to be on the previous low, and the slow return is likely to be a concern.

impression

The dollar remained dominant amid a lack of clear buying opportunities, and the euro was noticeably passive.

Although there were no sudden factors, I have the impression that a gradual downward push is building up.

trade observations

The return was shallow, and the day seemed to be dominated by selling on the return rather than buying on the pushback.

The rebound near the milestone was also weak, and directional entries required caution.

checklist

Have you checked for important indicators and key figures' statements?

Have you examined the price movement and reaction near the milestone?

Have you reviewed the risk and tolerance of holding positions?

looking back

The return was limited against the backdrop of a tighter fiscal stance and expectations of interest rate cuts, and the market was conscious of the downward trend.

summary

The British finance minister mentioned the possibility of tax hikes for fiscal consolidation, which raised awareness of the impact on the economy.

The pound's upside was restrained by growing expectations of a rate cut and the resilience of the dollar.

After European hours, there were limited attempts at a recovery, and the market closed on a weak note.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time saw price movements lacking a sense of direction, and a wait-and-see attitude continued.

The downward trend gradually strengthened as sellers returned to the market by the end of the European session.

Buybacks were limited even in New York, and the market closed on a softer note.

Background & Materials

The UK finance minister indicated that he would prioritize fiscal consolidation, and the market became increasingly concerned about a slowdown in consumption due to the tax hike.

The currency was weighed down by a slowdown in U.K. business confidence indicators and rising expectations of an interest rate cut.

In the U.S., the relative stability of the dollar was maintained, with clear differences in strength between currencies.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the momentum of the return was weak, and upside resistance was perceived.

Selling pressure was strong near the milestone, and the advantage of selling on the return was more noticeable than buying on the way down.

The short-term moving averages remained downward, and even though the market rebounded, there was still pressure to return to the market.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the adjustment from the highs continued, confirming the shallowness of the return.

The market is now testing an important support zone, and some are wary of a downward pullback.

The focus is on whether or not the next low can be renewed to determine the medium-term trend.

impression

Market attention is focused on the intersection of fiscal and monetary policy, and the influence of fundamentals is increasing.

Although short-term buybacks are coming in, we feel that material support is scarce and a cautious stance is necessary.

Rather than a sense of direction, a careful attitude of checking the reaction at each milestone is required.

trade observations

The predominant trend was to sell the return, and we felt there was a risk in easy contrarianism.

In a phase where we are aware of the weight of material, we feel the need to narrow down the timing of entry even in the short term.

The decision to focus on position and time period accuracy rather than price range was effective.

checklist

Have you reviewed the content of statements related to fiscal and monetary policy?

Have the locations of major support and resistance zones been updated?

Have you grasped the flow of the European and New York hours and the change in the ground?

looking back

The market remained soft with a slow return due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's unchanged policy and a stronger U.S. dollar.

summary

Although the RBA maintained a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, the strong dollar, which was driven by falling expectations of a rate cut in the U.S., weighed on the Australian dollar.

The Australian dollar continued to be restrained on the upside due to a combination of global risk aversion.

The return phase was limited and the market closed weak throughout the day.

Today's Price Movement

In the beginning, selling continued the trend of the previous day.

After European hours, there was a lack of buying material, and the return remained shallow.

Downward awareness continued until the end of the New York session, and the price closed at a low.

Background & Materials

The RBA kept its policy rate unchanged and maintained a cautious stance, keeping a close eye on inflation trends.

In the U.S., the dollar was predominantly bought on the back of receding expectations of interest rate cuts, and speculation about interest rate differentials weighed on the Australian dollar.

Weakness in the stock markets and risk aversion added to the mood, and buying into the resource-rich currencies did not spread.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market fell below the milestone, and a return to the market is now in the consciousness of the market.

The price remained below the moving average line, indicating a heavy upside.

The oscillators were close to oversold but with limited improvement.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the downward trend continues and the trend of lower highs continues.

It remains in front of an important support zone, and the maintenance of this level is the focus of attention.

Even if it rebounds, the shape is susceptible to return selling pressure.

impression

Despite the material available, reactions were limited and the market's caution was impressive.

It was difficult to buy risk assets as a whole, and the Australian dollar seemed to lack direction in this trend.

The impression is that we are still waiting for clues rather than a major trend shift.

trade observations

Returns were shallow, and a sell-dominant tone was perceived throughout the day.

Forced contrarianism can easily work to our disadvantage, and we were reminded of the importance of taking positions in line with the flow.

It seems to me that the decision to intervene with a pause for gains or a wait-and-see approach near the milestone was effective.

checklist

Confirm attack and defense near key support

Continued checks on U.S. interest rate trends and dollar strength

Confirm continuity of risk-off factors and changes in market sentiment