Market Summary

Risk aversion prevailed due to lower U.S. interest rates and falling stock prices, and the day before the event, the yen was in a buying trend.

Tokyo time was preceded by a downward test, followed by a contraction of the price range as the market waited for materials.

Today, after an early downward push, buyers returned to the market, and the direction of the market is still in the search phase.

Reactions to U.S. indicators and interest rates are the theme of the intraday

Assumed range

Assuming a swing within the range of the previous day's low to near the return high

Confirmation of deepening of pushback awareness on the downside, while keeping an eye on a slowdown in return on the upside.

Wary of range extension as liquidity recovers after entering Europe

tactics

Basis is to focus on selling on the return, but respond to a rebound after a downward push with a short-term rotation.

Short-term examination at the resistance zone, and consider building up after confirming the stall.

Avoid deep pursuit during sharp rebound phase and check if the momentum of return slows down.

trigger

Clear break of the previous day's low and deteriorating volume

Returns held back by initial movement in European hours

Direction of interest rates relative to US ADP and ISM results

U.S. stock futures and interest rates show risk aversion in the same direction

override condition

Clearly above the return high area, making a push and testing the high again

U.S. interest rates pick up, stock prices linked to risk appetite

Selling momentum does not continue without volume on the downside

risk event

U.S. ADP employment-related results and their interpretation

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Confidence Index

Headlines related to key figures' statements and authorities

Sudden changes in U.S. stock futures and crude oil

Position Management

Size comes in more modestly divided than usual.

Execute gains in stages before the most recent milestone.

Losses are set strictly outside of the most recent return starting point or invalidation condition.

checklist

Do U.S. interest rates and stock futures continue to indicate risk aversion?

Will the initial European move limit the return or will it move to a push formation?

Is the correlation between prices and interest rates after the U.S. ADP and ISM holding?

Market Summary

Long waiting period for materials ahead of European service PMI confirmations, German economic indicators, and the US ADP and ISM non-manufacturing in the evening.

The previous day's strong selling trend continued in Europe and beyond, and today's headlines are likely to provide short-term directional cues.

Assumed range

Assumption of an intraday range with the previous day's low to the return high in the Asian time zone as the core

Late European to U.S. hours managed with margins above and below on the assumption of increased volatility before and after the index.

tactics

Early London based on range rotation and short term reversal around the upper and lower limits

Do not force prices ahead during the U.S. index band, but follow the initial direction for a short period of time and take profits as early as possible.

trigger

If the first move in Europe leads to a clear break above the previous day's highs, stand by for a push.

Shift policy to sell back if the previous day's low is established after U.S. ADP or ISM

override condition

If the upswing stalls without volume after the upswing and returns to within the recent range, the follow-on scenario will be withdrawn.

Downside is a strong rebound after a new low, and if the recovery is over the previous return high, the return assumption is lifted

risk event

Surprises in German and Eurozone PMI confirmations

U.S. ADP employment data blip and changes in ISM non-manufacturing inflation-related indicators

Sudden risk-off due to key figures' statements and geopolitical headlines

Position Management

Moderate size during the day and further reduce the size of the U.S. index band and build up in stages after initial confirmation.

Gains are set shallowly based on the most recent swing highs and lows and the range boundary formed just before the index.

Stop-losses are placed directly outside of the entry basis, and if the price continues to move differently than expected, the customer temporarily moves to "no-position".

checklist

Update on previous day's high and low and Asian time range position

Record the blip in the European PMI and the market's initial reaction

Verify the initial direction of the U.S. index band and the strength of the pushback

Market Summary

The UK is set to announce its monetary policy the next day, and the return of the pound is limited due to slowing inflation and uncertainty over fiscal policy

In the U.S., employment and economic indicators are in focus and the dollar remains firm

The previous day, GBPUSD was predominantly sold from the European hour and closed with a downward trend in mind

Although there was a buyback near the milestone, the upward movement was restrained and the market lacked a sense of direction

Assumed range

Around 1.3000 - around 1.3150

Assume a rebound from the milestone and a return to the market

If both up and down are out, there is room for the flow to change

tactics

Basically, our priority is to return to the market.

If the upside test is weak, we will respond by selling in stages.

Near the milestone, we will also look at short-term buybacks

trigger

A clear break above around 1.3110 is likely to increase buying pressure

We note an acceleration of selling below 1.3000.

U.S. employment indicators and increased liquidity in U.S. time could trigger change

override condition

If it breaks above 1.3150 and acts as a push, the return scenario will be broken

Assumptions need to be revised even if the rebound continues after lower prices and the highs are maintained

We will also note if any major position bias is eliminated prior to the event

risk event

Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) results released

U.S. ADP employment data, U.S. service industry-related indicators

Statements by key figures on fiscal developments in the U.K.

Position Management

Overall position is set smaller than usual

The interest rate will be executed as soon as possible before the milestone.

Losses are limited to outside the return high or recent low

checklist

With or without buyback at around 1.3000

Change in flow and volume before and after the U.S. index

Confirmation of bias in position adjustment before BOE

Market Summary

Even after Australia left its monetary policy unchanged, the return of the Australian dollar has been slow due to concerns about inflation and softening resource prices.

With the release of employment-related indicators in the U.S., the market continues to swing easily depending on the direction of the dollar.

The previous day, the market closed lower due to heavy selling, and today, it is being bought back at the pushpoint, although it tested the downward direction at times.

Assumed range

Around 0.6450-0.6530.

While downward pressure remains, buying is likely to come and go at the milestones.

There is a possibility of range expansion due to price movements after the U.S. index.

tactics

The basic principle is to return to the market.

However, temporary pushback near the milestone is also considered.

Avoid going deep if it is difficult to get a sense of direction.

trigger

On the downside, a clear break below the previous day's low area.

To the upside, continue to buy if the recent return high is exceeded or after European hours.

Also note the results of the U.S. ADP employment data and the ISM non-manufacturing index.

override condition

If the price continues to rise above the return high after consolidating lower prices.

If the strong buyback continues without material.

When a move is accompanied by volume that easily negates the milestone.

risk event

U.S. ADP employment statistics.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

Australian Trade Balance.

Position Management

Size is based on half of normal.

Adjust gains frequently before the milestone.

Stop-losses are set based on the most recent return high or support negation level.

checklist

The strength of the buyback against the test of lower prices.

Direction of the dollar before and after the U.S. index.

Risk trends in resource prices and stock markets.

looking back

In Tokyo, the yen was temporarily in favor of the dollar, but the yen was bought back, and in Europe, the dollar was bought back with little sense of direction, while in New York, the dollar was bought in favor of the U.S. dollar on U.S. indices.

summary

U.S. economic indicators showed resilience and supported the dollar buying trend

On the Japanese side, the momentum of yen buying was limited, although caution about monetary policy and statements by authorities remained

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo, risk-averse buyers bought the yen at times, but the yen returned to the lower levels as buyers were aware of the need to push the yen back down.

European hours were mainly characterized by slight firings amid material difficulties.

Dollar buying prevailed and tested the highs following the U.S. indicators released in the New York time

Background & Materials

In the U.S., economic indicators exceeded market expectations, supporting interest rates

On the Japanese side, there was no change in the direction of monetary policy, and there was a sense of caution about what the exchange rate authorities would say

Trends in the stock market and U.S. long-term interest rates also affected the direction of the exchange rate

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, there is an awareness of push-buying, while at the same time, there are scattered return sales at the high end of the range

The move was to assess the strength of the rebound, as the market was aware of the heaviness of the upside around the milestone.

The market continues to move above the moving average line, and the lower price seems relatively firm.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The medium-term trend remains upward, but an adjustment phase near the recent highs is also in view

The daily trend continues to hold at high levels and continues to search for direction

The distance between the main support and resistance zones is shrinking, and new material is seen as necessary for a break

impression

Despite the impact of the index releases, the market as a whole was not overly biased and the price movements were calm.

While caution remained in chasing higher prices, buying interest was confirmed at the push point

trade observations

It was difficult to get a sense of direction in the short term, and trading was more about checking reactions at milestones

Sudden fluctuations before and after the release of the indexes also made us aware of the importance of position management.

checklist

Confirmation of trends in long-term U.S. interest rates and the stock market's risk posture

Confirm price and volume reaction near major support and resistance zones

Beware of sudden headline risk from currency authorities and key figures' statements

looking back

Despite the material, the market lacked a sense of direction and continued to move within a range while testing up and down.

summary

In Europe, German orders showed improvement, but the response was limited due to the uneven nature of the orders.

In the U.S., employment-related indicators temporarily strengthened the dollar's bid, but the move did not last and the price returned to a calm trend.

Overall, the day was marked by a strong mood to wait and see what happens with interest rates and stock prices, and the market avoided aggressive directional action.

Today's Price Movement

The Tokyo session began with quiet price action, and there was no significant movement out of the range in the European session.

In the U.S., there was a temporary swing toward a stronger dollar after the release of the index, but it returned quickly and settled back down to a more stable level.

The price swung up and down throughout the day, but returned to the central price range at the end of the day.

Background & Materials

While German manufacturing indicators showed year-on-year improvement, some weakness remained in the breakdown and market assessments were mixed.

In the U.S., employment-related data were confirmed, raising awareness of both the strength and slowdown of the labor market

There were no major policy changes in either Europe or the U.S., and there was a widespread desire to assess events in the second half of the week.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market continued to bounce back and forth between recent highs and lows, with limited sense of direction.

Prices tended to converge around short-term moving averages, and rebounds and returns tended not to be overly extended

The market was trading on the back of a push and a sell-off, but failed to break clearly, and momentum was lackluster.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the gradual downward trend from last month is continuing, and the upward pressure is still conscious even in the return phase

The market has been repeatedly attacking and defending around the round number, and signs of a reversal cannot be fully confirmed.

On a weekly basis, it is still near the middle of the range, and the impression is that we are still waiting for materials to change direction.

impression

The market seems to be prioritizing a wait-and-see attitude, as it reacts to the material and then quickly returns to a calm price movement.

With the market continuing to lack a sense of direction, it was easy to be swayed by minor price movements, and it was a situation where we did not want to follow the market unreasonably.

I feel that the lack of major bias is only poised to make a move depending on the next material.

trade observations

It was difficult to aim for a price range in the short term, and a response in the form of a series of small gains was required.

The decision to return and push back worked, but there were times when we were caught in a reversal if we pulled too hard!

It was safer to make small steps while checking the reaction at each milestone than to rush into the market.

checklist

Check market reaction to the next European indicators and ECB-related statements

Watch the impact of fluctuations in U.S. interest rates and stock prices on the currency market.

Check the quality of price movement and volume near the upper and lower range limits

looking back

While awaiting the Bank of England's meeting, the market was lacking a sense of direction, while testing the market up and down.

summary

Although the U.K. services PMI was revised upward, indicating that the economy was firming up, the market remained in a wait-and-see attitude, with mixed assessments of growth and inflation.

The dollar was bought in response to the U.S. index, but the trend did not continue, and a cautious stance prevailed ahead of the U.K. policy announcement.

Today's Price Movement

The price remained in a narrow range during the Tokyo time, and the direction of the market remained unclear after entering Europe.

In the New York time, the U.S. indexes triggered a temporary downward push in the dollar, but by the close, the swings narrowed again, and the dollar ended up staying within the range.

Background & Materials

Although the U.K. services PMI confirmed upwardly revised, the slowdown in price pressures and the slowdown in the economy were also noted as factors for the Bank of England's decision-making process.

In the U.S., employment-related and economic indicators were released, and the dollar was bought in some cases via interest rate trends, but excessive position building was avoided ahead of the Bank of England meeting.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The recent decline had run its course, and while there were signs of a push to the downside, the upside was likely to see a return to the upside.

In the short term, the price continued to move in a limited range, with repeated rebounds and stalls around the milestone.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the trend continues to test the recovery from the downward trend, and we are aware of the reaction near the milestone

Although the position with the moving average line and the highs and lows continue to deviate, there are signs of a bottoming out and we are still waiting for materials to determine the direction of the market.

impression

The major theme is the confirmation of the Bank of England's stance, which seems a reasonable development for the day before the meeting.

The market was led by the comings and goings of short term traders, with little momentum leaning in one direction and limited liquidity.

trade observations

Rebounds and stalls at milestones were relatively straightforward reactions, and although there were short-term trading opportunities, judgment was required not to pull too much.

Because of the pre-event, it was necessary to be light on positions, and it was effective to follow the price movements without forcing the market to take a predetermined direction.

checklist

Vote split at the Bank of England meeting and the tone of the statement

Authorities' assessment of service sector PMI and price outlook

Spillover effects from the reaction of U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar

looking back

AUD selling in Tokyo was accompanied by buying back, while in New York, the dollar was predominantly bought on the back of U.S. indices

summary

In Australia, even after the policy rate was left unchanged, caution about inflation remained a concern, and sluggish growth in resource prices led to a heavy upward pressure.

In the U.S., strong indicators were confirmed, mainly employment-related, and the resilience of the economy led to dollar buying

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo, the Australian dollar was supported to a certain extent by a sell-off followed by a buy-back.

In the European session, the market was directionless, but in the New York session, the US dollar was bought by the US indexes, and the Australian dollar was restrained from moving higher.

Background & Materials

RBA keeps policy rate unchanged, maintains caution about renewed inflation, and speculation of additional easing has receded

On the other hand, the slowdown in the Chinese economy and weakness in iron ore prices put upward pressure on the Australian dollar, and improved U.S. indicators provided the backdrop for dollar dominance

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the trend was toward a return to the market, and selling pressure was easily exerted even if the market rose.

Lower prices were also bought in the past low range, and intraday price movements were a test of ups and downs

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market continues to test the return in a downtrend and is aware of the moving average and trend line area

The downward trend itself is continuing, and even when the momentum slows, it has not yet reached a clear turning point

impression

While the Australian policy stance is supporting the currency, the external environment seems to remain a factor restraining upside.

While the strength of U.S. indicators continues, the return of the Australian dollar is likely to be limited, and the market remains cautious, keeping a close eye on the material

trade observations

Even as the predominant selling trend continued, the situation was such that we did not want to grab the highs or chase the lows in order to sandwich a short-term buy-back

I felt that it was effective to refrain from making unreasonable entries during times of lack of direction, and to wait for clear materials and milestones.

checklist

Focus on changes in U.S. employment-related indicators and interest rate trends

Check movements in iron ore prices and China-related indicators

Check for reactions near the previous day's high and low