Market Summary

While dollar buying prevailed on the back of strong U.S. indices, profit-taking was mixed at the highs and the market lacked a sense of direction.

On the Japanese side, there is little change in monetary policy, and there is little material to buy the yen, while caution about statements by the authorities is likely to restrain the market's upside.

On the previous day, after the yen swung higher in the Tokyo session, the U.S. and European sessions saw the dollar swing higher again in response to U.S. indices, and the price swung up and down.

Assumed range

The price is expected to hover around the low 153 yen to mid 154 yen range.

The lower price is likely to be conscious of the level considered as a candidate for last week's push, and a break below it may lead to further adjustment.

The upside is likely to be a return sale near the recent highs, and material is needed for a quick break above the highs.

tactics

The basic assumption is to buy at the push, but avoid chasing higher prices and make entry decisions cautiously.

It is safe to wait for confirmation of a rebound near the milestone before entering the market.

Short-term forces will be looking to rotate within the range, leaving room for either up or down.

trigger

Volatility is likely to increase when U.S. unemployment insurance-related and labor productivity results differ from expectations.

If there is a clear move out of the milestone in the morning in Tokyo or early in Europe, a follow-through trend will be conscious.

If the continued rise in U.S. long-term interest rates is confirmed, the dollar buying trend is likely to strengthen.

override condition

If the price clearly falls below the level that was considered a candidate for the most recent push and the return is slow.

When selling pressure strengthens at higher prices and the downward trend continues.

Tactics need to be revised when U.S. interest rates fall back and dollar buying interest weaken.

risk event

U.S. initial unemployment insurance applications.

U.S. labor productivity and unit labor cost.

Statements by currency authorities and sudden geopolitical news.

Position Management

Consider taking profits at each milestone based on smaller lots within the expected range.

Losses should be cut as soon as a clear break below a potential push point.

Consider position reductions and temporary withdrawals during the hours between consecutive indicator results.

checklist

Do U.S. interest rates maintain a rising trend?

Price and volume reaction near the milestone

Whether or not the authorities have said anything to check the yen's depreciation

Market Summary

In Europe, the search for materials continues as we await improvement in German orders and comments from ECB officials.

In the U.S., a wait-and-see attitude is growing in the wake of labor-related indicators and caution about the monetary policy outlook.

The previous day was difficult to find a clear direction and remained within a certain level while swinging up and down.

While buyers are buying back at the lows, the upside is heavy and the trend is to search for price action in the range.

Assumed range

Lower is in the low 1.06 to mid 1.06 area.

Above is around 1.07 low to mid 1.07.

If no major material is released, the price is expected to hover around this range.

tactics

The basic idea is to use range rotation.

In a downside situation, we will be in a posture to pick up in small increments while assessing the room for a rebound.

Returns will confirm the sluggish phase and short-term sell rotation will be considered.

trigger

The focus will be on fluctuations due to higher prices in the European session and the release of indicators in the New York session.

If the underlying tone moves in the U.S., such as the number of new unemployment insurance claims, it could create an early sense of direction.

An upward swing will bring awareness of the recent highs, while a downward swing will likely result in a test of the lows.

override condition

If the market is firmly established at a level above our expectation, we will revise our return stance.

Conversely, if the return is weak after a break below, buy-down tactics should be refrained from.

A sharp increase in volatility and material surprises are also factors that may cause assumptions to be revised.

risk event

U.S. initial unemployment insurance applications.

European Central Bank official's statement.

Preliminary U.S. employment and wage-related indicators.

Position Management

Smaller positions within the expected range will be used as the basis.

The profit margin should be based on the most recent rebound/return level and should not be pursued too deeply.

Losses are handled quickly based on a clear breakthrough of the milestone.

checklist

Is there continued awareness of the upper and lower bounds of the range in the price movements during the European hours?

Is there any change in direction in the reaction after the release of U.S. indices?

Whether there is any change in market temperature due to statements by key figures or interest rate movements

Market Summary

The market lacks direction ahead of the Bank of England's policy announcement and continues to wait for the next material, while being aware of slowing inflation and decelerating growth.

On the previous day, while buyers returned to the market at lower prices, the upside was heavy, and the price movement was only slightly position adjustment-driven.

Assumed range

Around 1.3000 - 1.3200.

Until the policy announcement, the amplitude is likely to remain within a range, and the price range is likely to be limited.

tactics

Until the event passes, it is safe to maintain a range rotation and keep positions small in case of sudden swings.

Since the direction of the market is likely to be determined by the content of the press conference, we will flexibly switch to selling on the upside or buying on the downside after the announcement.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above the 1.3150 area would be a sign of accelerated short-term buying.

On the downside, downward pressure is likely to increase with a firming below 1.3000, and the entry into Europe and the time of policy announcements could be points of change.

override condition

If the price remains directionless at the 1.3100 level after the event and is not accompanied by volume, the premise of the strategy is likely to break down.

Tactics should also be reviewed in the event of a sudden change in stop rolls on either the up or down side.

risk event

Bank of England policy rate, statement, and vote split situation.

The Governor's press conference regarding the timing of interest rate cuts and the inflation outlook.

U.S. unemployment insurance claims and productivity indicators for U.S. dollar interest rate trends.

Position Management

Priority is to keep positions light before the announcement and avoid accumulating unrealized losses.

Size is adjusted after confirming the post-announcement movement, gains are short, and losses are executed mechanically at pre-determined levels.

checklist

Does the statement and the vote split suggest a direction of easing?

Is there a strong reference to the timing of the start of interest rate cuts and wages and prices at the conference?

Is the flow of interest rates and the dollar's reaction after the U.S. indexes changing the flow of interest rates and the dollar?

Market Summary

Concerns about economic slowdown in Australia and China and sluggish growth in resource prices are likely to weigh on the market, while employment-related persistence against the U.S. is a concern.

On the previous day, the Australian dollar was sold off in Tokyo, and the dollar was bought in Europe and beyond, triggered by the U.S. indexes, and the dollar's return was restrained.

Assumed range

Basic view from the previous day's low to the previous day's high

Easy to swing temporarily due to U.S. indicators and key figures' statements, and the upside is likely to slow down in a thick band of return sales.

tactics

Based on a range rotation with a return to the close, the upward swing will attract and respond in stages.

In the short term, assume a sharp rebound and take profits in small increments.

trigger

Upper side extension inspection if clear above the previous day's high in early Europe.

Consider resuming the return sale if the initial reaction does not continue and the market falls back immediately after the U.S. index.

override condition

Price transition where the upper leg is confirmed to be above with substance and no longer falls at the push point

Continued rise with volume and headline support will destroy the assumption of a selling advantage.

risk event

U.S. employment-related and unemployment insurance results and interest rate reactions to them.

Dignitaries' statements and sudden policy headlines

Sudden changes in China-related indicators and resource market conditions

Position Management

Size is more modest than usual and further reduced before and after the index

Stop-losses are placed slightly outside of the most recently returned high, and gains are split before the milestone.

checklist

Initial movement after U.S. indexes may continue or reverse

Direction of resource prices and China-related headlines

Change in return zone and volume in the upper leg

looking back

Selling was strong from Tokyo to Europe, and selling intensified in New York, erasing the previous day's gains.

summary

While the background was the persistently high interest rates in the U.S. and the recovery of risk appetite, foreign exchange caution on the Japanese side restrained the return.

Although there were some signs of a pullback at the push level, selling tended to prevail in the New York session, leading to a further adjustment from the previous day's highs.

Today's Price Movement

The Tokyo session saw a gradual decline from the highs, followed by a return sell-off through the European session.

In the New York session, the market fell below the milestone and the buyback was limited.

Overall, the sense of direction was aligned to the downside, and there was a sense of heaviness on the upside.

Background & Materials

Interest rate levels in the U.S. were maintained, providing support for the dollar.

Japanese authorities were wary of sudden exchange rate fluctuations, and the market remained aware of intervention risks.

Risk appetite was recovering in the stock market, and buying of the yen as a safe-haven currency was limited.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The push level temporarily halted the decline, but the return was weak and the upside was cut off.

The price remained below the short-term moving average, and there was little upward momentum in the return phase.

The range of intraday highs and lows was limited, and the short-term sell-dominant trend continued.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, downward pressure strengthened from holding at the highs.

The price fell below the milestone that had been providing support, and the market was now aware of the possibility of testing the next support zone.

On the other hand, the medium- to long-term uptrend itself was maintained, and the view that it was a push remained.

impression

With a lack of strong materials, return selling prevailed and the market seemed to remain cautious.

It was not a sharp drop, but an impressive move from highs to lows with adjustments.

trade observations

The impression was that there were many situations where momentum was lacking to push the price down, and selling on the return was more advantageous.

While a rebound at the milestone should be confirmed before entering the market, the downside following phase was also limited.

checklist

Confirm the attack and defense of key support levels.

Check for reports on statements by authorities and foreign exchange intervention.

Ensure that the direction is consistent with trends in U.S. interest rates and the stock market.

looking back

The dollar's upside was restrained and euro buying continued throughout the day from Tokyo to Europe and New York.

summary

This was due to the easing of uncertainty in the trade situation and the return of risk appetite in the market as a whole.

In New York, once a push was made, the downside was limited and the price closed at a higher level.

Today's Price Movement

The euro was gradually bought from the Tokyo time, and the buying appetite remained unabated in the early European session.

In New York, the price temporarily adjusted due to selling that appeared to be profit-taking, but it was quickly bought back and remained at a higher level at the end of the day.

Background & Materials

Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy receded and demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset receded somewhat.

In the European market, the euro was underpinned by a sense of stock market strength and interest rates settling down.

Although market caution remained, there was no sharp risk aversion.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the upward trend was recognized and the market continued to be easy to buy at the push point.

Trading increased near the milestone, but downward momentum was limited.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the gradual return trend is continuing and the market is testing higher while consolidating lower prices.

The moving averages have tilted from sideways to slightly upward, giving the impression that the market is getting its bearings.

impression

The market was not swept away by materials, but rather the combination of buybacks and actual demand seemed to have stabilized the market.

Although not a sharp increase, a certain calmness has returned to price movements, and the sense of caution among market participants seems to have eased.

trade observations

A move to carefully pick up the push was easily rewarded, and buying to follow was somewhat difficult to judge at times.

Since the market did not swing significantly either up or down, I feel that it was important to manage the level of gains and losses.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule of important indicators and key figures' statements?

Are you aware of milestone levels and recent highs and lows?

Is position size and risk tolerance appropriate?

looking back

Buying started in Tokyo, sustained in Europe, and closed higher with a push in New York.

summary

The pound remained firm despite awareness of the Bank of England's policy unchanged and the prospect of future rate cuts.

Although uncertainty about fiscal policy remained, downward momentum was limited and buybacks prevailed.

Today's Price Movement

A gradual rise was formed in Tokyo, and buying continued in Europe.

In New York, there was a brief profit-taking sell-off, but the downward pressure was shallow and turned to buying again.

Background & Materials

The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged and the vote was close, raising awareness of the possibility of a rate cut.

The cautious stance by the financial authorities on spending and taxation left the market uncertain.

On the U.S. side, there was a lack of significant material and limited directionality in the dollar.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The market continued to move higher, and the push back was relatively shallow.

The market remained above its short-term moving average, indicating strong buying interest.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The market continues to hover near the upper end of the range and lacks a sense of direction.

The medium-term support has not been broken and the trend has not broken significantly.

impression

The material was somewhat weighty on the pound, but the reaction was limited and market tolerance was felt.

The next direction will depend on the content of policy and fiscal events, a phase in which neither excessive expectations nor pessimism should be avoided.

trade observations

The push was shallow, and the day was marked by an awareness of the superiority of buying on the push side over selling on the return side.

However, there were times when the market was sluggish at the milestone, and judgment was required to follow the market.

checklist

Did you check price reactions after major events?

Renewed support and resistance levels?

Have you reviewed the alignment of positions and risk management?

looking back

The dollar was held back and pushed down to near the previous day's level as dollar buying prevailed in the New York session, although the pair continued to trade slightly firmer in Tokyo and Europe.

summary

The Australian dollar was in a directionless trend, and the upward pressure was felt toward the New York time.

Although there were some occasions when the buying did not continue and the market was pushed back, the lower price remained at a certain level and the overall range remained within the range.

Today's Price Movement

The Tokyo and European hours were marked by narrow price spreads, and there was a noticeable movement to forego judgment due to material difficulties.

In the New York session, the Australian dollar was restrained on the upside against the backdrop of the U.S. interest rate trend and dollar buying back, and fell to near the level of the previous day's close.

Background & Materials

With no significant economic indicators or statements on the Australian side, support for the Australian dollar was limited.

The U.S. dollar remained resilient as interest rates fluctuated and risk appetite receded, relatively slowing the return of the Australian dollar.

Although the downward movement of resource prices provided some support, the market's attention was focused on the strength of the dollar.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market was sluggish at a level where the upside was easily recognized, making it easy to sell back to the market.

On the downside, the price has been holding down at the recent lows and is awaiting a clear break.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

On a multi-day basis, the highs continue to move lower, and in the medium term, the market is aware of the heaviness of the upside in the return phase.

The market is settling into a holding range between the central price points and continues to search for a sense of direction.

impression

Overall, it was a quiet day, but as indicated by the softening in the New York session, the rebound appeared unlikely to continue on the strength of the Australian dollar alone.

There is room to lean in one direction or the other depending on the flow of the US dollar and interest rates, and the air of waiting for materials remains.

trade observations

At the upper end of the range, there was a tendency for the buyers to not continue to buy and the market tended to fall back, and in the short term, decisions were felt to be effective after pulling back.

Although a break below the lows has been avoided, it is necessary to be aware of risk management and not be biased toward buying.

checklist

To check the trend of U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index

Be aware of changes in Australia-related indicators and resource prices

To check for renewal of the most recent low and return high.