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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | β | Oct Trade Balance (US$) | Graph Display | |||||
| π¨π³ China | β | Oct Trade Balance (RMB) | Graph Display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | November University of Michigan Consumer Attitude Index, Preliminary | Graph Display |
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
On the previous day, the market was dominated by the return selling, which pushed the price down from the highs and spread a sense of caution and heaviness on the upside. Today, it will be interesting to see whether the market will consolidate lower prices or move back to test a new milestone. Position adjustments and rebalancing due to weekend factors also require attention.
On the European side, major materials are limited, but there is still a sense of caution about the weakness of German economic indicators released the previous day and comments by ECB key figures. The previous day, the euro was predominantly bought and remained at a higher level with some pushes in between. Today, the focus is likely to be on the slow return near the milestone and the extent to which position adjustments peculiar to the weekend will be noticed.
While the Bank of England's unchanged policy and the prospect of a gradual interest rate cut in the future are still in the forefront of investors' minds, uncertainty over the UK's fiscal situation remains, making it difficult for the market to aggressively determine the direction of the market. Although the previous day, the market was supported by the predominance of buyers, the market was easily influenced by the speculation of a return to the market at the upper levels, and there was a mixture of moves to pick up the lows and profit-taking speculation. Today, we will watch whether the price movement will continue in the high price zone, taking into account the impact of the weekend rebalancing.
The Australian dollar lacked notable support on the Australian side, and the upward pressure is being felt against the backdrop of shaky U.S. interest rates and risk appetite. The previous day, selling intensified from the New York time, and the trend toward a return to the previous day slowed down, closing the session on a softer note overall. While some buying was seen at lower prices, there were no clear clues to determine the direction of the market, and the price action remained unstable. Today's trading session is likely to be a scene that requires attention to short-term swings ahead of the weekend capital adjustment and the results of U.S. economic indicators.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
During the Tokyo session, buying was ahead, but the upside was held back by the sluggishness of U.S. interest rates. In the European session, the upward movement was halted, although it did not reach to test the previous day's low. In the U.S. market, investors were waiting for more information, and the price range remained limited and lacked a sense of direction. Overall, the day was marked by both heavy upside and downside support, while the market remained in a high price range.
The euro was bought strongly from the European time and the trend continued until the middle of the New York session, but the momentum of the rally was somewhat weakened in the second half of the New York session as profit-taking and selling to adjust holdings became dominant. As a result, although there were some scenes of testing the highs, the market was sluggish toward the end of the session.
The price continued to be supported by a push in the middle of the European session, and the buying trend remained uninterrupted in the subsequent U.S. session. The pound showed resilience despite the strength and weakness of the US dollar, and closed at a high level.
In Tokyo, selling was ahead, but the downside was limited, followed by buying back. By European time, the market lacked a sense of direction and was waiting for the next material in small price movements. In general, the day was marked by a wait-and-see attitude, with the market remaining under downward pressure but not breaking down significantly.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
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ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
Today's line of attack
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range end
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day was marked by a return to the market and increased awareness of the downward direction, and there is a growing sense of caution and heaviness to the upside in the market
Today's U.S. employment data and weekend rebalancing are expected to make it difficult to determine the direction of the market.
Assumed range
Lower price is near the level that is a candidate for a push
Upper price is around the level where return sales are being considered.
tactics
The basic policy is to sell on the return, with a flexible stance to respond by confirming the reaction at the push point.
If the trend settles down, we'll look to rotate within a short-term range.
trigger
To the downside, a clear break below the recent lows
Upward movement is above the standard level of return and after the index
override condition
If a strong buyback occurs during the downward pressure phase and the recent return high is exceeded
If price movements remain limited and directionless for a prolonged period of time after the event
risk event
Results of U.S. employment and wage-related data
References to statements or interventions by Japanese authorities on currency fluctuations
Change in risk appetite due to sudden swings in U.S. interest rates and stock markets
Position Management
Position size is kept lower than usual, and new positions are held back prior to the event.
Take profits early before the milestone and adjust for overhang risk, including weekend factors.
Losses are set at the point where a clear negation of the trigger level is confirmed
checklist
Check the results of the U.S. jobs report and the reaction of interest rates
Check to see if the authorities have made any alarming statements about the exchange rate.
Check post-event price movements and reactions at milestone levels
Market Summary
The previous day was dominated by euro buying, with the euro holding at a higher level between pushes.
Weakness in German economic indicators and caution about ECB officials' comments remain, but the dollar's upside is being restrained.
Assumed range
Price movement is expected to be centered around the late 1.14 to late 1.15 range.
A scene to watch for a slow return or a push near the milestone
tactics
While the basic policy is to buy at the threshold, consider the possibility that buying momentum may slow down around the milestone.
Avoid unreasonable follow-through and give priority to picking up short-term adjustments.
trigger
Timing of U.S. employment data release to influence direction
The upper side is a clear move above the recent highs, while the lower side is judged by a break below the previous day's push level.
override condition
If the push does not work and the low is renewed, the scenario needs to be revised.
Subject to reconsideration in the event of rapid price movement in one direction and well off the milestone.
risk event
US employment statistics
ECB Dignitaries' Statements
Position adjustment through weekend rebalancing
Position Management
The lot is set up conservatively and prepared for sharp fluctuations before and after the event.
Set gains in small increments just before milestones and set losses clearly at the break of a push or failure of a return.
Avoid holding for long periods of time and consider partial liquidation before the release of an index.
checklist
Have you checked the U.S. jobs report and the market reaction to the announcement?
Are you aware of recent highs and lows and milestone levels?
Are position adjustments and holdings appropriate before and after the event?
Market Summary
While the Bank of England's decision to leave rates unchanged and the prospect of a rate cut are being considered, uncertainty about the UK's fiscal situation remains and directionality is limited.
Ahead of the U.S. jobs report, the situation continues to move higher as we await dollar-driven price action
Assumed range
Around 1.29 to 1.31
Reactions near the milestone are likely to be conscious, and a cautious approach is required to follow either up or down.
tactics
buying when the market is down
However, we are cautious about chasing higher prices and are prepared to give priority to attracting support.
trigger
A break above the recent highs would be a good indicator to continue buying in the short term
Initial reaction after the release of the U.S. employment data and the flow of the European time are likely to provide a sense of direction
override condition
If the potential push point is clearly broken and the downside price becomes more uncertain.
Rapid stall from highs with no materials and little room for a rebound
risk event
US employment statistics
Additional statements and reports on UK budget policy
Flow fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing
Position Management
Entry should be limited to the support zone and position size should be smaller than usual.
Secure gains in stages at recent highs and before milestones.
Set stop-losses at a level that clearly breaks a potential push point, and avoid going too deep.
checklist
Did you see changes in price movements and liquidity before and after the U.S. jobs report?
Have the major support and resistance levels and reactions been sorted out in advance?
Did you consider weekend-specific flows and carryover risk?
Market Summary
The Australian dollar continues to be susceptible to changes in U.S. interest rates and risk appetite due to a lack of material from the Australian side.
On the previous day, the selling was dominated by the New York time, and the recovery trend was pausing, with the overall price being aware of the heaviness of the upward trend.
Assumed range
The lower price is assumed to be near the recent low, and the upper price is assumed to be in a range centered near the return high.
Today's price range may expand depending on U.S. indices and weekend factors, and we need to be careful not to plunge either up or down.
tactics
The basic stance is to avoid following the market too closely at the lows and to make a decision by following the market.
We want to avoid bias in one direction and prioritize entry after confirming the reaction at the milestone!
trigger
To the upside, if a clear break above the recent return high and continued buying is confirmed
To the downside, we will be aware of the continuation of the flow if the previous day's low is broken and the subsequent return is weak
override condition
If a downward push is immediately followed by a buyback and the price is established at a higher level, the assumption of a return sale will be revised
On the other hand, if the price consolidates lower and higher prices are in view, the strategy needs to be revised
risk event
Sudden fluctuations may occur due to the release of major indicators such as U.S. employment statistics
Irregular price movements due to weekend fund adjustments and position liquidation should also be noted
Position Management
Position sizes are slightly smaller than normal, keeping room for sudden changes.
Gains are made frequently when milestones are reached, and losses are quickly cleared when they exit outside the expected range.
checklist
To check the U.S. jobs report and the dollar's reaction to it.
Be aware of changes in Australia-related indicators and resource prices
To check if the return high and recent low have been renewed or not
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
In Tokyo, the buying was headed up, and the downside remained limited despite a return sell-off in Europe, followed by a day of lack of direction as the market waited for materials.
summary
The balance between buyers and sellers was close, as the market remained in a high price range but was aware of the heaviness of the upward trend.
The mix of sluggish U.S. interest rate growth and weak economic indicators on the Japanese side did not lead to a clear trend.
The market was more willing to wait for the next clue, and bias in one direction was limited.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo session started with a predominant yen sell-off, and the market was seen to be aware of the previous day's highs.
In Europe, the return selling prevailed, and the price remained firm on the downside, although the upward momentum was retreating.
There was no significant material through U.S. hours, and the market remained modestly priced through the end of the day.
Background & Materials
In Japan, household spending and real wages continued to grow at a sluggish pace, raising awareness of the continuation of the monetary easing stance.
In the U.S., however, the momentum of interest rate hikes slowed, which limited the dollar's upside.
Demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset was also seen in some areas, and there was not an all-out trend to buy the dollar.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The leg with upper whiskers continues at the highs, and the shape remains alert for a return to the market in the short term.
The daily trend is still upward, but the reaction is still conscious near the recent highs.
The slope of the short-term moving average is moderate, suggesting a slowdown in momentum.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The medium-term uptrend is holding and signs of a major change in direction are limited.
However, it continues to languish in the high price range, and the upward momentum is becoming somewhat more cautious.
The support line is conscious, and if it is not broken, the underlying tone itself is likely to be maintained.
impression
The environment tends to lean in one direction when all the materials are in place, but the current wait-and-see attitude seems to be prevailing.
Although the market continues to move in a high price range, it is necessary to be flexible and not be overly determined about the direction of the market.
The market has room to swing either up or down, and is still waiting for the next decision.
trade observations
It was felt that it was safer to wait for a reaction after confirming a push or return than to follow the entry.
Prioritizing profit-taking at higher prices and avoiding forced following led to risk aversion.
Because of the limited price range in short-term trades, it was important to clarify position management and withdrawal criteria.
checklist
Have you checked the schedule of major economic indicators and key figures' statements?
Have entry and exit levels and rationale been set in advance?
Is the position size within the limits of cash management?
looking back
Euro buying prevailed from European hours and rose until mid-NY, but the trend was sluggish afterwards due to adjustments.
summary
Euro buying was supported by expectations of lower U.S. interest rates and a lull in dollar buying.
However, the dollar also tended to be bought back on the downside, and toward the end of the day, the direction of the market slowed somewhat due to a heavy sell-off on the return of the dollar.
As a result, the market was conscious of the heaviness of the upside while testing the highs.
Today's Price Movement
In Tokyo time, the market lacked a sense of direction, and a wait-and-see attitude continued.
Euro buying strengthened and turned upward from the start of European hours.
The buying trend continued until mid-NY time, but was pushed back slightly in the second half due to profit-taking selling.
Background & Materials
Uncertainty about the outlook for U.S. interest rates weighed on the dollar and supported euro buying.
Position adjustments ahead of the release of U.S. employment figures also progressed, curbing excessive dollar buying.
Although there was little new bullish material from the eurozone side, the price movement was led by dollar factors.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
On the upside, the area around the recent highs was conscious and remained heavy to the upside, unable to break out.
Buying support was readily available at the push points, and the downward movement was limited.
In the short term, the market continues to be near the upper end of the range.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
In the medium term, the market is seen as a phase to test the return in a downtrend.
Selling pressure remains near the major moving averages, and there is no confirmation of a trend reversal.
A breakthrough accompanied by materials and volume is required to influence the medium-term trend.
impression
Although buying momentum was seen, the impression is that it was more due to adjustments on the dollar side than euro-driven.
It is hard to get a sense of direction and we feel that the market is almost waiting for the next material.
It is easy to swing either up or down, and this is a situation where excessive expectations and biased viewpoints should be avoided.
trade observations
While the push to the upside worked, the push to the highs was sluggish and risky.
There were many quick reversals near the milestone, and it was necessary to maintain a clear decision between gains and losses.
My impression is that the response was more effective after confirming the rate trend rather than forcing the opposite direction.
checklist
Have you identified the starting and ending points of the directional phase?
Did you record a reaction at the highs or lows?
Have we ensured that decisions are made in accordance with the rules and not driven by emotion?
looking back
The market was pushed higher from the middle of Europe and continued to buy in the U.S. hours to close at a higher level.
summary
While the Bank of England was expected to keep its policy unchanged or cut interest rates, uncertainty over the UK's fiscal situation and growth also limited the direction of the Bank's policy.
While affected by U.S. monetary policy and stock price movements, the pound was easily bought on the downside and supported on the downside.
Profit-taking was easy at higher prices, and some upward pressure was seen, but the market was generally aware of the firmness of the market.
Today's Price Movement
Asian session started with small price movements and continued to lack a sense of direction
Buying momentum strengthened as buyers pushed to the downside through European hours
In the U.S. time, the market was dominated by buyers while being swayed by U.S. interest rates and stock prices, and closed at a high level.
Background & Materials
The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged, and the market was aware of the market's assumption of a gradual rate cut in the future
While uncertainty over fiscal management and growth in the U.K. weighed, the tug-of-war with materials on the U.S. dollar side limited the direction of the market.
U.S. economic indicators and stock market movements influenced the dollar-driven trend, and the pound's price movement adjusted accordingly
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The lower price continued to rise as buyers became aware of the need to push the price down.
With some speculation of a return to the highs, the focus was on the recent highs.
Short-term buying dominance, but momentum of higher prices slowed at times
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The company has entered a rebound phase amid lingering downside pressure in the medium term.
The market continues to attack and defend around the major moving averages, and time is needed to confirm a change in direction
If the highs continue, the ground is set to test the next milestone, while the possibility of a return to selling pressure remains.
impression
Despite mixed buying and selling speculation, the pound's resilience was impressive for the day
Even though there were not many materials, it seemed that short-term muscle flows and changes in risk appetite affected price movements.
The market environment continues to require the ability to respond to detailed price movements rather than excessive expectations.
trade observations
There were some good moments to test the push, but cautious profit-taking decisions were necessary at higher prices.
It was important not to be overly biased toward buying, but to be aware of the need to liquidate positions when momentum slowed.
The key was to frequently check the strength and weakness of the price movements and to identify the dominant push points rather than follow them.
checklist
Did the Bank of England's comments and changes in interest rate cut expectations confirm this?
Did you catch the push formation and flow in the European and U.S. hours?
Have you reviewed your position bias and timing of gains at higher prices?
looking back
Selling was preceded by a sell-off in Tokyo, but the downside was limited and the day ended with a lack of direction, accompanied by a buy-back.
summary
While the overall trend of heavy selling was noted, the market was reluctant to move lower due to buying back near the milestone.
The market lacked clear-cut clues and was eager to see what the next event would be.
Today's Price Movement
Selling was dominant in the early Tokyo session, but there were some rebounding moments when the price stopped falling just before the previous day's low.
The price swung up and down through Europe, but the price range was limited, and the market moved in a small manner with little sense of direction.
Background & Materials
Weak economic indicators in China raised awareness of concerns about the export environment in Australia.
The global mood was increasingly risk-averse, weighing on high-interest and resource-rich currencies.
On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia's stance did not suggest a sharp easing, which also supported lower prices.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
In the short term, the market will continue to attack and defend around the milestone, and the upside will remain vulnerable to a return to the market.
The price is hovering below the moving average line and is likely to be aware of the heaviness of the upside even in the return phase.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The daily trend of lower highs and lower lows continues, and the market appears to be in an adjustment phase.
However, buybacks are also likely at key support and remain within a moderate downward bias.
impression
We feel that the price action was a mixture of downside testing and buybacks, indicating the hesitation of participants.
We believe that risk aversion and China-related influences are still likely to be a concern even as we await materials.
trade observations
It was difficult to extend in one direction, and a short-term abandonment of the market was required rather than aiming for gains.
I feel that the attitude of making a decision after checking the reaction to a milestone rather than forcibly following it was effective.
checklist
Have you checked the schedule for the release of economic indicators in China and the U.S.?
Are milestone support and resistance levels clearly defined?
Are the stop-loss lines and assumed risks set in advance?
FX Diary