Market Summary

Conscious of the possibility of reduced liquidity due to the U.S. holiday today, the dollar/yen has been bid in Tokyo hours and is again approaching last week's highs.

On the previous day, buying continued from Tokyo through European hours, and although it was sluggish in the U.S. hours, the market closed at a higher level.

On the material side, the mood of restraint is growing as the US indexes are about to reach a climax, and the market is cautious about the emergence of a clear trend.

Assumed range

Lower limit = around 153.50-154.00 / Upper limit = around 154.50-155.00.

tactics

We will consider range rotation as the basis, with push-buying as the main axis. If there is no clear break above the high, we will look to sell back near the upper limit.

trigger

Above: Movement clearly above 154.50 / Time zone: Focus on the morning of Tokyo time - early European time.

Downside: Movement below 153.50.

override condition

With a clear break & pullback above or below the expected range. Sustained development, especially above 155.00 or below 153.00.

risk event

Sudden fluctuations due to advance release of U.S. indices, sudden policy statements, and reduced liquidity due to national holidays.

Position Management

The size of the position should be kept at 70-80% of the normal position / The profit target should be set by watching for rebound near the upper or lower limit / The stop-loss should be set outside the expected range (e.g., below the lower limit if it breaks above or above the upper limit if it breaks below).

checklist

First check to see if the dollar/yen is moving within the expected range.

Conscious of the impact of reduced liquidity (thin trading and appearance of whiskers).

Monitor by time zone for any changes due to indicator releases or policy statements.

Market Summary

The previous day saw a lack of buying momentum in the euro, and the dollar also moved slightly without direction

Eurozone business confidence indicators showed improvement, but trading was limited due to a wait-and-see attitude toward U.S. interest rates

With fewer market participants today due to the U.S. holiday, quiet price movements are expected, mainly due to short-term muscle adjustment.

Assumed range

The range is expected to remain centered in the upper 1.14s to lower 1.16s.

In view of the decline in liquidity, we need to keep in mind the possibility of sudden ups and downs in the market.

tactics

Until a clear direction emerges, take a cautious approach based on range rotation, prioritizing short-term sellbacks.

We will consider aiming for a rebound when support is approaching, but will avoid excessive following.

trigger

A clear break above the 1.16 level during the European session would test the shift to a buyback trend.

Conversely, note that a break below the 1.14 level will increase the risk of an expansion of the adjustment

override condition

If the upside resistance is not breached and selling pressure strengthens again, the upside scenario will be temporarily withdrawn.

Conversely, if the price does not break below the lower level and remains stable, review the downside scenario

risk event

Release of German business confidence indicators and Eurozone related data

Decreased liquidity and sudden price movements due to the U.S. holiday

Position Management

Trading volume is kept at about half the normal level, with a wider stop loss for sudden price fluctuations.

Keep a short-term perspective when taking profits, and keep positions light before major indices.

checklist

We'll see if the initial European hour will give us a sense of direction.

Observe price and volume changes following the release of Eurozone data

Be wary of one-way swings due to thin trading during the U.S. holiday

Market Summary

The previous day, the market continued to rebound despite multiple attempts at higher prices, leaving the market to close at the upper end of the range.

Today is a holiday in the U.S. and the bond market is closed, and liquidity is likely to be lower in the New York time.

Markets are cautious ahead of UK labor market statistics as they probe the future of interest rate cuts

Directional sentiment is difficult to obtain, and while price movements are limited, caution is needed to test the downward direction.

Assumed range

Assumed around 1.305-1.323

1.30 is considered as a psychological milestone, and above it is a zone of easy return selling at the 1.32 level.

Overall, the trend to explore the lower end of the range is likely to prevail.

tactics

Consider shorting at the upper resistance zone, mainly on return sales

Allow a margin for limit prices because of the possibility of spread widening due to reduced liquidity

Short-term trading will limit the price range and avoid increasing positions prior to the event.

trigger

Downward test may accelerate at a break below 1.310

Weak UK jobs report likely to reinforce downward bias

Conversely, room for temporary pound repurchase in case of upside

override condition

Return scenario paused at above 1.323

Revise downside scenario if the market stabilizes at the 1.32 level after the employment report.

Priority is given to position liquidation if high prices continue in the short term.

risk event

U.K. Labor Market Statistics (Wages and Unemployment Rate)

Decreased liquidity due to U.S. national holidays

Sudden fluctuations due to statements and indicators in European time

Position Management

Transaction size should be 50-70% of normal

Profit stops are set earlier before the lower price band, and stop-losses are executed above 1.323.

Lighten open interest before the index and consider re-entering the market after confirming the results.

checklist

Immediate confirmation of wage trends and unemployment rates in UK employment statistics

Reduced positions due to reduced liquidity caused by the U.S. market holiday

Determine changes in the short-term trend around the 1.31 attack.

Market Summary

On the previous day, a speech by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Australia, which implied that "the Bank will maintain a tight monetary environment in order to return to the inflation target," provided support for the Australian dollar.

Australian consumer confidence picks up in November; sentiment weighs back a bit

Liquidity is likely to be thin as the U.S. bond market is closed today, and the market is expected to be difficult to find a sense of direction during the day.

Easy to come and go within the range of the previous day's high and low, break is highly dependent on the headlines

Assumed range

Main scenario is around 0.6480-0.6560, with a possible firings around 0.65

Beware of momentary excesses due to thin trading, and avoid chasing the edge.

Reassessing the slope of the range with price movements after the entry of Londoners

tactics

Based on range rotation, new around the center is forsaken, aiming for edge to center regression.

Ensure that when a headline occurs, wait for a cushion rather than following the initial response.

Shallow split limit prices and quick risk adjustment to near the open price after execution

trigger

Upper exit level is above the previous day's high and the first European high

The downside level is below the previous day's low and the Tokyo morning low.

As for the time frame, watch for volume in early London and around the FIX.

Materials fluctuate with RBA-related headlines, Chinese sentiment, and advance reports of U.S. indicators

override condition

A series of unidirectional major yin-yang lines with prolonged stagnation in the upper or lower levels

Slow response to return sales and push-backs, and minimal push-backs after the break

Volume in the assumed central zone collapses and the pin bar remains unsuccessful

risk event

Speculation fluctuation due to additional reports and reinterpretation of the abstract of the RBA Deputy Governor's speech

Headlines related to the follow-up report on Australian November consumer confidence and business confidence

Thinning and widening spreads due to the U.S. bond holiday, as well as speculation on U.S. inflation indicators in the second half of the week

Position Management

Start with less than half the normal size and factor in the risk of slipping based on the thinness of the board.

Interest rates are set in short steps and a portion is mechanically secured by regression to the central zone.

Losses are placed tight on the outside of the most recent whiskers, pausing for consecutive hits.

checklist

Check for additional RBA-related headlines and key figures' statements

Inspection of continued Australian sentiment system and market interpretation gap.

Monitor time of reduced liquidity and spread widening due to U.S. bond holiday

looking back

Although the market tested the upside from Tokyo to Europe, the rally paused for the day as investors were aware of a return to the highs.

summary

The dollar/yen swung up and down against the backdrop of the results of U.S. interest rate and employment-related indicators

Dollar sales strengthened in the early part of the New York session, but settled down as buyers returned to the market at the end of the day.

Directionality was limited and there was a strong adjustment tone ahead of the milestone.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time was firm, and gradually rose through European time

Temporary downward pressure in NY hours following weekly US employment-related indicators

Then buying returned, and the closing session was only slightly changed from the previous day.

Background & Materials

Mixed results in U.S. economic indicators make it difficult to determine the direction of interest rates

On the Japanese side, the yen remained on a selling ground as speculation of a change in monetary policy receded

Overall risk appetite remained, but short-term profit-taking was also notable

Technical Memo (Short-term)

On a daily basis, the price continues to hold at a high level

Located above the moving average, but is aware of the heaviness of the upside

Focus is on whether short-term support can be maintained

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Medium-term uptrend trend is maintained, but momentum has slowed somewhat

Momentum needed for higher prices, waiting for next material

The market is consolidating lower prices and signs of a change in direction are limited.

impression

Reactions to U.S. indicators were likely to generate short-term volatility.

No clear trend was seen in the overall market, and trading continued to focus on position adjustments.

A quiet but impressive day of price movements, but with a heavy upside.

trade observations

It was reasonable to cautiously hold off on any attempts to push higher, and to limit our efforts to short-term push marks.

Strong awareness of return sales at milestones, limited follow-through buying

Entry was safe after confirming the turn in the flow.

checklist

Check to see if short-term support is maintained

Examine reactions to U.S. economic indicators

Note the change in position bias.

looking back

EURUSD temporarily broke above last week's highs as dollar selling continued amid reduced liquidity due to the U.S. holiday.

summary

Weakness in European indicators combined with a holiday in the U.S. markets resulted in a generally directionless day.

The dollar softened during the New York session on the back of preliminary employment-related news, while the euro was bought back.

Ultimately, the upward movement did not continue, and short-term profit-taking slowed the growth.

Today's Price Movement

The Tokyo and European hours were limited, with small ups and downs compared to the previous day.

Dollar selling strengthened through the New York hour, with a slight move above last week's highs.

Thereafter, reactionary dollar buying returned and the market closed at a slightly calmer level at the end of the day.

Background & Materials

The German ZEW business sentiment index came in lower than expected, indicating a cautious attitude toward the European economy.

In the U.S., the bond market was closed for a holiday and major economic indicators were scarce.

Technical buying by some short-term players pushed the market higher at some points, but the continuity was limited.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The recent upside is located near last week's high, maintaining the short-term uptrend line.

On the other hand, on a daily basis, the market is unable to clearly break out of the upper resistance zone, making it difficult to determine the direction of the market.

The move up was made amid thin volume, and caution is needed for a short-term rebound.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market will maintain the firm trend since September, but there will still be pressure to return to the market.

The moving averages are converging and are in a transitional period of directional search.

Going forward, U.S. interest rate trends and European business sentiment indicators will likely be key to trend formation.

impression

While the overall market was quiet before the event, the technical factor-driven upside was impressive.

Rather than a sustained buying trend, this is considered a temporary move due to short-term position adjustments.

Price movements are easily exaggerated during periods of low liquidity, and a cautious approach is required.

trade observations

Rather than chasing higher prices in thin trading, it is safer to enter the market after confirming the reaction near the milestone.

Short-term traders should be aware of gains on the upside and focus on risk management in the event of sudden changes.

In an environment where it is difficult to get a sense of direction, it is useful to limit position size.

checklist

Beware of excessive positions before important indicators

Be wary of reverse risk during periods of low liquidity

Do not be overconfident about short-term breakouts and check thoroughly

looking back

The pound was temporarily sold off after the UK employment data showed worsening unemployment, but the U.S. employment-related indicators softened the dollar and the pound regained some of its losses.

summary

Markets were cautious about the outlook for interest rates in the U.K. and the U.S., and price movements remained lackluster in terms of direction.

Although the market responded to short-term materials, it remained within a limited range overall.

The tug-of-war between risk aversion and interest rate expectations continues, and no clear trend has formed.

Today's Price Movement

Asian hours saw small movements, continuing the previous day's trend, with a temporary decline in European hours due to the employment data.

In the New York session, the pound was able to turn lower as dollar selling prevailed in response to the results of the U.S. indices.

The closing session saw a mix of position adjustment trading, and the price range converged to a limited range.

Background & Materials

With the U.K. labor market showing signs of slowing, investors were aware of the possibility of a rate cut by the BoE.

In the U.S., employment-related indicators were a bit weaker, limiting the dollar's upside.

The market environment continues to be aware of a turning point in global interest rate policy.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the upside is heavy, and the market is likely to be aware of return selling pressure.

There is also some buying back in the support zone, and the price continues to move back and forth in a narrow range.

Short-term indicators are directionless and awaiting a clear break.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, a gradual holding range is forming and signs of trend reversal are limited.

The market remains in equilibrium with the price hovering near the major moving averages.

The next UK economic indicators and BOE statements will be the focus for medium-term trends.

impression

The reaction to the material was temporary, indicating investors' cautious attitude.

With the outlook for policy rates difficult to see, the market remains in a wait-and-see mood.

In the near term, the market is more likely to be affected by changes in sentiment than fundamentals.

trade observations

The market is easily swayed by sudden ups and downs due to the release of indicators, and position management is required.

In short-term trading, it is important to be flexible based on the limited nature of the price range.

Until a clear break is confirmed, cautious entry is safe.

checklist

Check the date of the next economic indicator release in the U.K. and the U.S.

Keep track of the schedule of BOE key figures' statements

Reconfirm key support and resistance levels

looking back

Although the Australian dollar was supported by comments from key figures at the Bank of Australia, overall the currency was in a narrow range with little sense of direction.

summary

Selling dominated in Tokyo, and European hours ended in a struggle.

In New York, the dollar was temporarily sold off in response to U.S. employment-related indicators, but was restrained to the upside by buyers.

Overall, the mood of waiting for materials was strong, and trading was limited to a small price range.

Today's Price Movement

After dropping to near the previous day's lows in early Asia, the market rebounded slightly on the back of short-term muscle buying.

In Europe, price movements continued to lack a sense of direction, and the flow of the market was not set in stone due to the low number of participants.

In New York, dollar selling pressure briefly increased, but the Australian dollar's gains were limited.

Background & Materials

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Australia made statements indicating a strong stance on inflation control, which supported the Australian dollar.

In the U.S., expectations of avoiding a government shutdown spread and risk appetite recovered somewhat.

However, the market had difficulty finding a sense of direction due to a mix of strong and weak U.S. economic indicators.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, a rebound from near the lower end of the range was seen, but the upside was restrained at the previous day's high level.

The short-term moving average remains flat and no clear trend reversal has been confirmed.

There was also a decline in volume, and active new positions were limited.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market continues to remain in the middle of the range and lacks a sense of direction.

The support zone confirms the downside movement and leaves room for a buyback.

Breaking through the upper resistance zone will require additional material or a clear weakening on the US dollar side.

impression

The Australian dollar moved in equilibrium between the resilience of its fundamentals and the instability of the U.S. dollar.

While the mood of risk aversion receded throughout the market, cautious trading was evident, with no trend formation.

The market will continue to be easily influenced by short-term materials and may continue to lack a sense of direction.

trade observations

Short-term traders were mainly scalable, in line with the small price range environment.

The composition of the market continued to be a mixture of buying with the support zone in mind and selling back at the resistance.

In the medium-term stance, position adjustments were prioritized and new accumulation was refrained from.

checklist

Review statements from Bank of Australia officials and the minutes of the meeting.

Watch for changes in U.S. employment-related indicators and interest rate trends

Continued confirmation of major support and resistance zones