Market Summary

Although the previous day's upward test continued, the upward movement was sluggish near last week's highs.

The market fell sharply during the New York hour in response to the weekly employment-related data, but later closed lower on a buying spree.

Today, the finance minister's remarks triggered dollar buying in Tokyo hours, slightly renewing the previous day's highs.

We are now in the phase of assessing how far the upward momentum will continue, while being aware of the authorities' censure.

Assumed range

Assume price movement around 154.0 - around 155.0

In the short term, the image is for a return to the market before the 155s, with a lower price in the low 154s.

Volatility is settling down and nervousness is expected to remain on the watch for intervention.

tactics

We will basically buy at the push with an eye on the upside

It is advisable to be cautious and wait for confirmation of a rebound from the first half of 154 before entering the market!

We will prioritize short term trades that follow, while checking the statements of the authorities and interest rate movements in overseas time.

trigger

If a clear break above 155.0, we will be careful to trigger a stop for buyers.

On the other hand, a break below 154.0 could easily be a sign of a widening adjustment and is a warning point for the lower end of the range

This could be triggered by the release of indicators in the London time and key figures' statements in the early morning of the U.S.

override condition

A clear break below 154.0 and a firm close would invalidate the push-buy strategy

A break below the uptrend line may also cause a lull in momentum

If interest rates fall and stock prices soften at the same time, the dollar's predominance may be broken

risk event

Timing of key U.S. officials' statements, interest rate trends, and economic indicator releases

Statements and observational reports on foreign exchange intervention on the Japanese side

Momentary price movements due to changes in market liquidity during European hours

Position Management

Position size should be about half the normal size

Profit taking is done in stages around the upper resistance zone to reduce risk in case of sudden changes

Losses will be taken when a clear change of direction is confirmed, based on a break below 154

checklist

Check for the presence of authorities' statements and intervention-related headlines at any time.

Observe the impact of US interest rates and stock futures movements on the dollar-yen

Watch for the maintenance of the short-term trend line and the attack on the upper end of the range.

Market Summary

The previous day, the weekly jobs report led to dollar selling, and the Eurodollar moved above last week's highs

Delays in the release of U.S. data and continued expectations of interest rate cuts, while Eurozone growth concerns continue to limit upside

Currently, there is a strong sense of a lull after the rally, and the market is searching for a sense of direction with short-term adjustments in between.

Dollar softness is being felt across all major currencies, but the wait for material is still on

Assumed range

Assumption is for a holding around 1.1550-1.1620

The upside is likely to be determined by last week's high level, while the downside is likely to be determined by the presence or absence of push-buy demand

Temporary swing expansion is possible depending on liquidity in NY time

tactics

Basic stance is to buy at the push of a button

Consider short-term buybacks after confirming upward momentum.

Maintain a light position during sharp fluctuations in preparation for a one-way break

trigger

Possibility of renewed buying pressure above 1.1600

Short-term sellers are likely to sell their hands at below 1.1560

Price movements in the early hours of European time make it easy to see the direction.

override condition

A clear break below 1.1540 would likely negate the upside scenario.

Momentum also slows if 1.1600 cannot be held at the closing price

Assume range reversion if downward push continues

risk event

U.S. government shutdown-related developments and data reopening reports

Remarks by U.S. Fed Officials and Revised Policy Outlook

Eurozone macro statistics and ECB-related comments

Position Management

Transaction size is based on half the normal size

The interest rate should be around 1.1610 to 1.1620.

Losses are managed with one criterion below 1.1540.

checklist

Check the reaction of the dollar to the resumption of U.S. statistics and statements by key figures.

Price movements during European hours will determine whether a push is formed or not.

Beware of sudden fluctuations due to position bias and reduced liquidity

Market Summary

The pound temporarily sold off due to the worsening unemployment rate in the U.K. employment data, but subsequently regained some of the decline as the U.S. dollar softened on U.S. employment-related indicators.

Market lacks direction as both up and down are within a range

In the short term, we are waiting for materials and are in the stage of assessing the next indicators and key figures' statements.

Assumed range

Assuming a range centered around the 1.3100-1.3200 area.

The lower price is in the low range before the employment data, while the upper price is near last week's return high.

Be careful of movements during thin trading hours for sudden breakthroughs.

tactics

Basic policy of range rotation due to difficulty in seeing a clear trend

In the short term, there is room to consider pushing back to the downside

Another option is to wait for a sense of direction after confirming price movements in European hours.

trigger

Watch for a buy-back trend on a break above 1.3200.

Short-term sell-off may intensify below 1.3100

UK GDP and U.S. CPI to be released tomorrow, and position liquidation is underway.

override condition

A clear break below 1.3050 would set back the upside scenario.

Tactics review in case of extremely low volume due to material difficulties before the index

If lack of direction is prolonged, respond with lighter positions

risk event

UK GDP (Sep) and US CPI (Oct) results on 11/13

In the event of sudden reports of statements by key figures or reports related to British finances

Dollar-driven price movements due to changes in U.S. Treasury yields

Position Management

Moderate lot sizes for trading within a range

The profit stop is just before the upper limit of the short-term range, and the loss stop is an immediate withdrawal when the support is broken.

Thoroughly reduce open interest and limit risk before an index

checklist

Reconfirmation of the schedule of economic indicators for the UK and the U.S.

Observe price movement and volume increase/decrease during European hours

Check for line breaks that indicate a trend change

Market Summary

The previous day, the market oscillated up and down but remained in a range, with little sense of direction.

On the Australian side, resource prices continue to weaken, while on the U.S. side, the dollar's movement is being restrained by the expected delay in the release of indexes.

Overall, amid material difficulties, the market is likely to be conscious of a holding pattern with no price range.

Assumed range

Assuming price movement around 0.6500-0.6560

Range may remain directionless due to risk of postponement of U.S. indicators and resource prices

tactics

The basic trading stance is to trade with an awareness of range rotation

Sell back in the upper resistance zone and consider short-term pushback near lower support

Priority is given to small-scale targeting until a major trend occurs.

trigger

A break above 0.6560 could accelerate short-term buyback

Room for renewed selling pressure if the price breaks clearly below 0.6500

Beware of the possibility that statements by key U.S. officials and reports of U.S. CPI deferrals could sway the market

override condition

If the downside support is broken below 0.6480, the premise of the range strategy is lost.

Conversely, a break above 0.6580 would indicate a change in direction and a decision to withdraw from selling on the return.

risk event

Delayed release of U.S. October CPI expected

China's iron ore supply and demand and business confidence indicators

Speculation on RBA officials' statements and minutes

Position Management

Position sizes should be modest and prepared for sudden news.

Take profits frequently in the middle of the range and stop-losses outside of support and resistance.

No positions to be dragged in preparation for the concentration of indices in the second half of the week.

checklist

Check for US index postponement and reaction of the dollar index

Check out iron ore prices and China-related stocks

Reconfirming the schedule of statements by RBA officials

looking back

The yen was sold predominantly in Tokyo and continued in Europe, and after an adjustment in New York, the yen narrowed to close at a higher level.

summary

The yen's selling trend prevailed during the day, and the time frame for testing the upside continued to develop along with the participation of overseas players.

In New York, profit-taking was heavy and pushed back temporarily, but the return was limited and the downside price looked firm

Toward the end of the day, buyers returned to the market and the overall market closed at a higher level

Today's Price Movement

Strong yen selling flow in Tokyo, with calmness continuing despite awareness of the milestone

Direction did not change significantly during the European hour either, with uninterrupted buying supporting the market

Although an adjustment was made early in the New York session and the market was pushed lower, it was later lifted by buying back.

Background & Materials

In Japan, a cautious stance on monetary policy still tends to weigh on the yen

Overseas, speculation over monetary policy outlook mixed, while risk appetite supported the U.S. dollar

Flow-driven movements were evident throughout the market, with hourly adjustments and buy-backs being the theme

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the downside is shallow even in pushing situations, and the shape of the market is likely to be conscious of the thickness of the buyers.

More small feet of substance, swinging up and down, but the sense of direction seems to be gently upward

Pushback is likely near the short-term line, making it difficult to confirm a turnaround in the flow

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the price will continue to stay in the high price range and remain above the support band

Holding range is maintained, but the shape of the market is likely to be conscious of the low price

Maintains major levels and does not appear to have lost much of its direction over longer time frames

impression

Impressive calm development with flow-driven upward test and absorption of adjustments

A day that continued to follow supply and demand rather than single news items, with differences from hour to hour highlighted

Although price movements were uneven, there were many occasions when no major fluctuations were seen overall.

trade observations

Shallow push and a shape that picks up a short-term selloff is likely to work

Even after the adjustment in New York, the buying back was quick, and some hours remain difficult to discern.

Overall, it was difficult to see a clear turning point, and the impression was that decisions had to be made according to the flow of the market.

checklist

Check for changes in flow at different times of the day

Compare depth of push and return

Reconfirming the location of major levels

looking back

Tokyo and Europe were mainly characterized by a slight back-and-forth movement, and in New York, dollar sales were a bit dominant, but the upward movement was heavy and lacked a sense of direction.

summary

In the beginning, the market was waiting for materials, and both buying the euro and selling the dollar remained inconclusive.

In New York, the euro was temporarily supported, but the return of the euro was conscious at the milestone level

Overall, the market continued to move slightly within a range, with limited short-term directionality.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time continued the previous day's trend, with prices remaining quiet and difficult to swing up and down

In the European hour, the wait-and-see attitude prevailed as the market awaited indicators and statements, and both upside and downside reactions were sluggish.

Dollar sales were slightly ahead in NY, but the euro's return was limited and stalled near the upper end of the range

Background & Materials

Awareness of a slight softening in U.S. employment-related indicators contributed to restraining the dollar's upward movement.

On the other hand, eurozone indicators lacked improvement momentum and did not provide a positive buying opportunity for the euro.

Relative material weakness meant that power relations between currencies were unclear, and the overall cautious trading stance remained in place

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, selling was likely to occur near the upper end of the range, and it was difficult for momentum to continue in the short return phase.

Lower prices were more likely to stop once at shallow pushes, and the market was mainly short-term traffic rather than directional.

Trading was mixed around short-term moving averages and did not lead to a straightforward break

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The medium-term trend is holding and prices continue to move within a certain range.

The trend direction was not clear, and a balanced shape was maintained with little bias to the upside or downside

Trading tends to clash at mid-term milestone levels and there is a lack of directional material

impression

The impression was that materials for both the dollar and the euro were weak, and there was a long period of time when relative strength and weakness were difficult to find.

The market was looking for the next clue, and signs of waiting for indicators and events were prevalent throughout the trading day.

Although the price range itself remained calm, the price continued to fluctuate up and down, making it difficult to make decisions at many points in the day.

trade observations

Both return sales and push-buying tended to stop shallow, making it difficult to increase profit margins.

Although there were certain opportunities for short-term reversals, they lacked continuity and required careful profit-taking.

A day with many attacks and defenses at the milestone, and price range management in advance was important.

checklist

Material strength balance

Reaction at upper and lower range limits

Waiting for the next indicator or event

looking back

After falling on weak U.K. jobs data, the dollar softened in New York, reversing the decline for the day.

summary

Selling of the pound was dominated in the early going as UK employment-related data weighed on the market, but the flow switched on the US side of the market.

While political and fiscal uncertainties restrained upside, US interest rate expectations acted as a support, limiting the direction of the market.

Although there were swings throughout the day, the market remained in a range, and reactions to the material were only short-lived.

Today's Price Movement

Early on, the price moved lower in response to the U.K. index, stopping once near the milestone.

In European hours, the market continued to test the return, but the upside remained heavy, and it was difficult to get a clear sense of direction.

In New York, the dollar softened in response to U.S. employment-related data, leading to a widespread retracement of much of the decline.

Background & Materials

UK employment indicators showed worsening unemployment-related conditions, raising awareness of economic weakness.

Reports of instability on the political front in the U.K. and a cautious outlook on the fiscal front remained.

In the U.S., employment-related data showed a slowdown and a slight loosening of interest rate expectations softened the dollar, shifting the balance of the market.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, downward pressure prevailed at times, and price action around the milestone was noteworthy.

However, the market was aware of room for a rebound by the New York time, and was seen testing the return of the market.

Directionality was limited as the market was aware of the ups and downs of the short-term range.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market remained range-bound and the focus was on attacking and defending around key milestones.

A mix of UK and U.S. materials continued to hamper trend formation.

The medium-term direction of the market remained volatile, depending on the material, and the balance remained unstable.

impression

It was a typical material-driven day, with pushdowns due to U.K. materials alternating with pushbacks due to materials on the U.S. side.

There is an impression that while the cautious stance over politics and finances restrained the market's upside, the observation of U.S. interest rates prevented excessive declines.

Ultimately, the market settled within the range of short-term traffic and continued to lack a sense of direction.

trade observations

While confirming the reaction at short-term milestones, there were many occasions when we calmly judged the momentum of the decline phase and the strength of the rebound phase.

Since it was a day of fast reactions to materials, it was necessary to avoid following them unreasonably and to confirm the shape of the returns and pushes.

In a range-bound environment, the target was limited, and foregoing was an option.

checklist

Have we clearly identified the top and bottom of the short-term range?

Were you prepared for sudden changes due to indicators and political reports?

Did you avoid unreasonable follow-up and consider only superior forms?

summary

The impression was supported by the calming down of Australia-related indicators and the retreat of excessive caution, including in the external environment.

Overall, the upward trend was maintained throughout the day with shallow pushes and continued buying at all time zones.

While the short-term sense of direction was limited, a structure was seen in which a sense of stability was easily recognized.

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo, buyers started buying back in the early hours and the market started with a mild rise, continuing the previous day's trend

The previous day's high was exceeded in the early European session, and buying interest remained, despite a temporary adjustment.

In New York, the upward test was made again, and the trend continued to hold the highs in a short swing

Background & Materials

Supported by calmer Australian-related indicators and a slight retreat from short-term uncertainty

Excessive risk aversion has receded on the U.S. side, and the day is likely to be marked by an overall trend toward risk appetite.

Volatility in resources, interest rates, and external markets was limited, and there were few new materials to disrupt the direction of the market.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

While maintaining a rise in the short timeframe, selling is likely to be seen near the milestone as the market waits for the return of the market.

The push was shallow and the underlying tone stabilized from the beginning to the middle of the day, supported by the vicinity of the short-term moving averages.

Momentum slowing at the highs, but selling pressure limited enough to lead to a downward collapse

Technical Memo (mid-term)

No major trend change is seen in the medium term, and the situation is searching for a sense of direction within a certain range.

Sellers and buyers are mixing and mingling around the milestone, gradually reducing the price range and holding each other's shares.

Medium-term moving averages are flat and a clear break would require the emergence of additional material

impression

Overall, the swings were small, with buyers remaining cautious in each session despite the buying advantage.

Markets remain calm, respecting short-term trends while being aware of the scarcity of materials

While lacking a sense of direction, buyers' persistence was evident in the form of maintaining high prices.

trade observations

The environment seemed to be one in which short-term pushback was easy to work with, with repeated rebounding at shallow pushpoints.

Price movements are slow around the milestone, and there are times when stress can easily build up when following entries are made.

The overall adjustment was limited, so the early separation of gains was suitable for the operation.

checklist

Is the trend of staying in the high price range continuing?

Has the depth of the push changed?

Are there any new materials emerging in the external environment?