Market Summary

The previous day, the dollar remained in a strong buying trend and closed higher, while the yen remained sluggish in its return

The market is still in a situation where the composition of the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential remains unchanged, and speculation over interest rate observations is mixed ahead of U.S. price indexes and statements by authorities

Although there is a sense of caution from the authorities, there are few factors that would clearly tilt the yen toward buying at this point, and the yen is likely to hover in a high price range.

Assumed range

Today's main scenario is a range between the recent highs and the recent levels that are likely to be candidates for a push.

With many events from European to U.S. hours, the market is likely to continue to swing up and down, so we would like to see a slightly wider price range.

A phase where we want to assume a range view in preparation for both an attempt to renew highs and a move to test the previous day's lows and short-term support zone.

tactics

Basic stance is to follow the upward trend and buy on the downside, while keeping a cautious stance on chasing higher prices and waiting for an adjustment.

In the case of a shallow push in Asian time, the image of adjusting the average open price by splitting entries based on the risk of swinging around European and U.S. indices.

In case of a sharp short-term recovery, we will take a wait-and-see approach and enter the market only after confirming the depth of the push and the volume of the market.

trigger

To the upside, a clear breakout above the recent highs and a longer upper price dwell time is a key point to consider when considering follow-on purchases.

To the downside, watch for a clear break below the previous day's low and the short-term support zone as a sign of weakening of the push-buy scenario once the return becomes sluggish.

As for the time frame, the scene to check the flow in early Europe and the direction of the initial and second stage of the move immediately after the release of the US price index as a candidate trigger.

override condition

If the selloff from the highs is larger than expected and the market falls below multiple support zones in a short period of time, the conditions weaken the push-back assumption scenario

If the price fluctuates wildly after the indicator and then remains heavy near the lows rather than the highs throughout the day, it is a sign that the assumption that the trend will continue needs to be reassessed.

Avoid following too closely in case volatility suddenly increases and price movements seem to diverge from actual demand, triggered by statements or headlines from key authorities.

risk event

U.S. price indexes tend to be directly linked to interest rate observations, an event that requires attention to widening spreads and sudden price jumps in the minutes before and after the announcement

Note that during times of concentrated comments by U.S. monetary authorities, changes in nuances regarding the timing of rate cuts and interest rate levels are likely to affect the direction of the dollar.

Economic indicators and statements by key figures on the Japanese side may also trigger a yen buyback depending on timing, so it is important to check schedules and headline levels in advance.

Position Management

Before and after an event, reduce position size more than usual and adjust open interest according to pre-determined allowable risk.

Rather than aiming for a large price range all at once, partial handing off at a milestone or near a recent high and low is combined to reduce fluctuations in unrealized profit.

It is important to decide on the level and lot in advance so that the loss can be taken without hesitation after the breakdown of the short-term support or the departure from the expected range.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule and content of U.S. price indexes and monetary authority statements in advance?

Do you know the location of the most recent high/low and short-term support/resistance on the chart?

Is the position size and allowable risk excessive in relation to the expected range and stop-loss level?

Market Summary

The previous day was directionless and traded in a relatively narrow range

On the euro side, growth and prices have not been assessed, and the mood remains wait-and-see on the monetary policy outlook.

The dollar side of the equation is more susceptible to swings in interest rate levels and risk appetite, with a mix of strong and weak factors.

Today, we will see if we can break out of the range through the flow after the entry of the Europeans and their reaction to the indicators.

Assumed range

Lower limit is near the zone of potential pushes that were made aware of by the previous day

The upper limit is around the high price zone, which is prone to return sales, and will be considered as the upper edge of the range for the time being.

Until there is clear material on both the upside and downside, we assume that the market is likely to correct its excesses.

We are looking for volume and smoothness of price movement around the milestone to determine the validity of the range

tactics

The basic stance is to range, cautiously picking up pushes on the downside and considering a return sale on the upside.

We will not follow one direction and will limit our trading to short term price action.

When a break is suspected, priority is given to adjustments to existing positions rather than new ones.

During times when it is difficult to see the direction of the market, it is safe to lighten positions and focus on observation.

trigger

The upside will be determined by whether the upper limit of the range is clearly crossed and whether the price can hold above it.

The downside is the phase where we want to see if the potential pushback remains weak afterwards.

Prices tend to be volatile around the start of European hours and immediately after the release of major indices, so be careful of deceptive moves.

Timing of inflation-related indicators, business confidence indicators, and key figures' statements in the Eurozone and the U.S. are likely to be short-term triggers

override condition

If one end is tested repeatedly and the rebound weakens and the range becomes unbalanced, the assumption will be revised

When volatility is greatly increased by sudden news and the price settles outside the range at once, it is also necessary to review the policy.

If the transition does not push back after crossing a key technical milestone and takes time to settle, the range assumption tactic will be less likely to work

In addition to short-term indicators, events that raise awareness of changes in the medium- to long-term outlook can also be a disabling factor.

risk event

Eurozone inflation indicators, business sentiment surveys, and monetary policy-related announcements

Statements related to U.S. employment and consumption-related indicators and monetary policy stance

General news that significantly changes risk appetite, such as geopolitical risks or sudden changes in the stock market

Sudden headlines that appear at times when liquidity is likely to be low can also be a source of volatility.

Position Management

Position sizes before and after the event are reduced from normal to provide more room for unexpected blurring

Profit taking is divided at each milestone in the range and adjusted so as not to hold too much unrealized profit at once.

We will maintain a clear criteria for cutting losses outside the range and maintain an attitude of executing without hesitation when the conditions are met.

The overall risk amount will be managed based on account balances and positions in other currencies to avoid an overly strong bias

checklist

Check interest rate trends and spread changes between the Eurozone and the U.S.

Confirm price movement and volume near the previous day's high and low and upper and lower bounds of the range

Check the calendar of economic indicators and scheduled statements by key figures, and recheck positions before and after events.

Market Summary

Although there was a phase of predominant selling on the previous day, the market subsequently closed lower, indicating that the market was once again in a recovery trend.

With U.K. growth indicators and housing-related data on the horizon, the market continues to carefully assess the economic slowdown and the future of monetary policy.

In the U.S., too, attention is focused on price indicators, and the lineup of materials in both the pound and the dollar makes it difficult to find a sense of direction.

In the short term, the market is in a mixed state of strength on the return and heaviness on the upside, with a tendency to lean in either direction.

Assumed range

Today, we expect a swing around the 1.30s on the lower side and up to the 1.32s on the upper side.

In light of the previous day's swing, the price range is likely to be difficult to plunge either up or down.

A temporary overshoot may occur depending on the outcome of the UK index.

The price range is likely to change between European and New York hours ahead of the U.S. price-related event.

tactics

The basic policy is to assume a range rotation, and to pass up once the extreme extension either up or down.

It is easy to take a short-term sell rotation when the return is heavy and a light buy rotation when a push is in the works.

It is safe to not pursue positions too deeply when the move back to the central zone continues.

During the time of material announcements, new entries should be restrained and priority should be given to confirming clear price movements.

trigger

One guide is a break above the level of the UK growth indicator, which showed clear strength and weakness in the European hour.

On the downside, the short-term decision will depend on whether the previous day's downside phase will be broken again.

When U.S. price indexes show unexpected blips, a switch in direction is likely to occur.

We would like to incorporate into our short-term decisions whether the initial strength or weakness immediately after the index will continue.

override condition

The range assumption is likely to be broken if the one-directional movement continues to move significantly away from the assumed central band.

If the results of the UK indicators are substantially unexpected, opening up a quick margin of return or downward pressure.

When a volume pattern appears that continues to cut higher or lower after a U.S. price index.

The timing at which short-term return selling or push-buying has ceased to function at all.

risk event

Publishes UK growth indicators and housing-related data.

U.S. price-related indicators and employment-related data.

Short-term fluctuations associated with interest rate trends in Europe and the U.S. and statements by key figures.

Sudden price movements during hours when market liquidity is thin.

Position Management

The size should be more modest than usual and should be reduced in stages before and after the index.

Take profits early when approaching the central zone and avoid going too deep.

Losses should be taken without hesitation outside the expected range, while factoring in short-term ups and downs.

Do not take multiple directions at the same time, but focus on one axis of judgment.

checklist

Which way the initial reaction after the UK index leaned.

Which is more likely to prevail: the return trend or the upward pressure?

Is the price range expanding rapidly before and after the U.S. index?

Market Summary

Following the previous day's slight rally, today's better-than-expected Australian employment data has sent the Australian dollar slowly higher against the U.S. dollar.

The decline in the unemployment rate and the solid increase in the number of employed persons are likely to make the RBA maintain a tighter stance for the time being.

AUDUSD is currently in the recent return high zone, and while it will test the upward direction triggered by the index, it is also prone to sell off on the upside due to a sense of a milestone.

Assumed range

Today, our basic scenario is for the pair to move up and down in the range of 0.6500-0.6600, keeping in mind the lows made in the Asian session and the highs after the indicator.

If the buying momentum from the Australian index continues, it is likely to test the upper end of the range, while a temporary swing below 0.6500 should be watched depending on the outcome of the US index.

tactics

Currently, the basic rule of thumb is to buy at the pushpoint while checking where the push after the indicator will stop, and to enter the market in stages instead of unnecessarily chasing higher prices.

In the short term, we will prioritize profit-taking before the milestone, while assuming a stance of picking up shallow pushes as long as the lower price remains firm on the back of employment improvement.

On the other hand, if the US dollar side changes its direction, the market may switch back to a sellback-dominated environment, so it is important not to stick to a fixed sense of direction.

trigger

On the upside, whether the highs can be clearly established above the post-index highs will be a factor in determining whether the pushback can continue, and we want to confirm the shallowness of the pushback after the break.

To the downside, a clear break below the 0.6500 area and a weak return would be taken as a signal to hold the upper line.

As for the time frame, we will be watching for price movements in the early European session after the Australian flows have run their course, and before and after the release of U.S. employment and inflation-related indicators.

override condition

If the buying on the back of the Australian jobs report stalls and the daily close is below 0.6500, the scenario based on the buy-and-hold assumption will be considered a setback.

Also, if the price continues to move lower while failing to break to new highs after the index, we will consider switching to a cautious stance as a sign that short-term upside potential is limited.

If the U.S. dollar appreciates more than expected and similar movements against the dollar spread to other major currencies besides the Australian dollar, we would like to judge that the market has changed to a dollar-driven market rather than individual materials.

risk event

The biggest focus will be on the process of market penetration of the assessment of the Australian employment report released today, and the tone of the subsequent Australian-related indicators and RBA key figures' statements should also be watched carefully.

With U.S. employment-related indicators and inflation indicators coming up overseas, there is a risk that the overall direction of the U.S. dollar may change through the strength or weakness of interest rate cut speculation.

In addition, we will keep an eye on the possibility that developments in Chinese economic indicators and the stock market will influence the degree of risk appetite and affect the positioning of the Australian dollar as a resource-rich currency.

Position Management

It is safe to imagine that new positions should be entered with a slightly smaller size than usual and additional positions should be cautiously built up until the volatility after the Australian jobs report subsides.

For profit taking, we believe that it is easier to manage risk by settling in installments just before the milestone, and then reducing risk once it returns to the middle of the assumed range.

It is preferable to mechanically execute stop-losses at levels that are clearly below potential push points or when turbulence after an event is judged to have strengthened momentum in the opposite direction of the scenario.

checklist

Did you see the highs after the Australian jobs report and the shallow push and volume that accompanied it?

Are you watching for an attack around 0.6500 and the movement of the dollar index before and after the release of the U.S. index?

Position size and stop-loss level are appropriate for the expected range and volatility of the day

looking back

Against the backdrop of the U.S. interest rate trend, the market was unstable, with buying and selling at different times of the day, and then bounced back to the downside with buying at the end of the day.

summary

In Tokyo, the market as a whole took a wait-and-see attitude as small movements continued in the high price range.

After the entry of the Europeans, dollar selling intensified due to sluggish growth in U.S. interest rates, and there was a temporary awareness of downward pressure

Although selling continued in the New York time, buying gradually returned, and overall the market remained within the range.

Today's Price Movement

Prices remained directionless in the early part of the day while maintaining a high price range

In the European time, the dollar was sold in response to the interest rate trend, and the price range was gradually reduced, interspersed with some push-buying.

In the New York session, selling again prevailed, but buying returned toward the end of the session, and the downward pressure was regained somewhat.

Background & Materials

Sluggish growth in U.S. long-term interest rates was perceived as a factor for selling the dollar, and changes in interest rates at different times of the day were directly linked to price movements.

No major change in policy stance on the Japanese side was seen, and the direction of the exchange rate was led by external factors

The market as a whole continued to be a mixture of risk appetite and adjustment, with limited buying of the yen as a safe-haven currency.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market continued to hold at high levels, with a composition of heavy upside and strong pushes.

The market continued to have many reactions around short-term moving averages, and the market continued to repeat minor comings and goings.

Reactions to interest rates were quick and short-term trend formation was easily influenced by intermittent price movements

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market continued to maintain a high price range, and it remained difficult to find a clear direction.

Longer dwellings near major milestones and a sense that energy is likely to build up both up and down the market.

The trend was more influenced by interest rates and events, and mainly remained within a range rather than trend continuity

impression

High dependence on interest rate materials and differences in reactions from one time period to another complicated price movements.

The struggle between selling on the upside and buying on the downside continued, and I got the impression that price range management is important in short-term trading.

Although there was some buying back towards the end of the day, overall the day was not very polarizing

trade observations

The flow of the market changed easily from hour to hour, and it was easy to be swayed by follow-up trades.

The strategy of carefully picking up pushes and returns was effective, and it was important to be aware of the importance of accumulating small amounts of money without fail rather than aiming for excessive price ranges.

Reactions near the milestone had to be carefully assessed, and the precision of entry and exit was tested.

checklist

Have you identified the market reaction to interest rate trends?

Did you see the price behavior near the milestone?

Are you prepared for changes in flow at different times of the day?

looking back

A day of dollar selling dominated by a pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates, with the euro moving lower.

summary

After the entry of European players, the dollar returned to the market against the backdrop of the U.S. interest rate trend, while the euro remained resilient

Dollar adjustment selling continues through New York, and the euro continues to be easily pushed

Overall, the directionality of the market was limited, but the downward trend slightly reduced concerns about lower prices.

Short-term reactions to materials were rapid, and price movements reflected liquidity changes at different time zones.

Today's Price Movement

The euro was struggling in the early part of the session after a round of sell-backs, and it gradually picked up in the European session.

Dollar buying back slow after the start of the New York session, while the euro is slightly higher on the downside

Although the daily price range was calm, it was easy to buy during the downward pressure phase

Overall, mainly stable range transition while digesting materials

Background & Materials

The US interest rate adjustment has temporarily reversed the dollar-buying trend, making it easier for funds to move into the euro.

U.S. economic indicators, including employment-related indicators, were mixed, and market interest rate expectations continued to be shaken.

Eurozone business confidence has not changed significantly, but it will act as a supportive factor in the short term.

Political events and monetary policy-related statements were limited, and the market reacted by sorting through the material

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The structure of lower prices is maintained in the short-term leg, making it easier to buy on the push side.

The low zone in the European hour was recognized as near-term support, contributing to the rebound in the New York hour.

On the upside, the previous day's return high is in mind, and material support is needed to break through.

Short-term trend line is moderately upward and maintains stability with limited momentum

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Medium-term situation continues to be a back-and-forth holding, and it is difficult to clarify the direction of the market

Continued offensive and defensive action near moving averages, and a market structure that is prone to a mixture of pushing and selling on the way back

Slowing reaction is seen in the medium-term resistance zone, and trading of actual demand is restraining price movements.

The market is moving in a wide range, and is likely to swing up or down depending on materials.

impression

Short-term price movements were calming down and excessive reactions to materials appeared limited.

Sensitivity to interest rates and indicators remains high; lack of direction indicates market participants are cautious

Trend formation was not rushed, and trading continued to confirm the reaction at each milestone

trade observations

A certain willingness to buy was seen at the pushpoints, giving the impression that there were some easy moments to participate in the market in the short term.

Heavy upward pressure was undeniable, and there were many situations that called for cautious profit-taking and position management.

Overall, it was range-centered, and it was necessary to carefully pick up the moments of movement.

checklist

Confirming the direction of U.S. interest rates and Eurozone indicators

Check price movements during European hours and how the low price zone is treated

Confirm position within the mid-term range and the reaction of the resistance zone

looking back

A day of buying back up from the downside pressure on weak U.K. indicators, and a day of lower prices against the U.S. dollar

summary

UK growth indicators weighed on the market in the early going, and the market was conscious of the heaviness of the upside until Europe entered the market.

The dollar's return slowed as U.S. interest rates settled, and the pound gradually consolidates to the downside

In New York, the balance among currencies has been cleared, creating an environment conducive to buybacks.

Overall, the market recovered while digesting the weakness, and extreme swings were limited.

Today's Price Movement

Asian hours continued to see small movements in a narrow range, with cautious attitude continuing the previous day's trend

In the European hour, the market was pushed lower in response to weak domestic indicators, but the market was gradually bought back up, without excessive selling.

The pound was bought against the backdrop of a returning U.S. dollar as U.S. interest rates settled down into New York.

The price returned to a calm trend in the final stages of the session, easing concerns about lower prices somewhat.

Background & Materials

Latest UK indicators show slow growth, initially weighing on the pound

On the other hand, the calm in U.S. interest rates eased the momentum of dollar buying, which was supportive for the pound.

In both Europe and the U.S., there was limited out-of-the-ordinary material, and the main focus was on confirming the continuation of existing themes.

Markets maintained a cautious view of the risk environment and maintained a stance of not leaning toward excessive flows.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

After the downward push entering Europe, the market remained in a short-term support zone, confirming the desire to buy at the push point

In New York, a test of the recent resistance zone entered the market and the return trend widened slightly.

Short-term price range was relatively calm, and price movements were mainly based on the equilibrium between supply and demand.

The market continued to hold around the short-term line at the end of the day, and there was no rapid growth

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Medium-term viewpoint still lacks a sense of direction and continues to move within a wide range

While the lower price is conscious at a certain level, the upper price is also unable to break out clearly, and the holding trend continues.

The impression remains that the medium-term market lacks stability, as it is easily reactive to domestic and international materials.

Additional materials were needed for trend formation, and decisions were made with caution.

impression

The pound was consolidating lower, despite weak indicators, and seemed to settle down throughout the day.

However, the lack of materials in the medium term continues, and it remains difficult to read the direction of the market.

The price movements themselves were within a relatively organized range, and the market was very much in a position to avoid following the market unreasonably.

Looks like it was a day of carefully checking materials without leaning into excessive flow.

trade observations

The market was in a selling trend at the beginning of the day, and it was a phase in which we wanted to refrain from making any unreasonable entries.

After the downward push in European hours, there were certain buying opportunities, but the environment was also prone to short-term profit-taking

New York's return required careful position management and was not suitable for excessive chasing.

Focusing on movements within the range and adjusting stance flexibly was effective

checklist

Have you secured a short-term support zone?

Is the calm in U.S. interest rates continuing?

Is the buyback trend continuing?

looking back

Although buying was ahead in the early stages of the session, the market began to sell off in the middle of the European session, and the gains were almost completely erased by New York City.

summary

Strong Australian employment-related activity and risk appetite supported early buying, but the trend reversed from mid-European

Strong reactions to U.S. interest rate trends, with amplitude amplified in the process of swinging back from dollar selling to dollar buying

Return selling pressure continued in New York, and the day was marked by a drop back from the intraday highs.

Today's Price Movement

From Tokyo to the beginning of Europe, the market was dominated by buyers and slowly picked up.

After the entry of the Europeans, dollar sales strengthened as U.S. interest rates paused in their rise, and the dollar once tested the highs.

Selling turned to the upside from mid-Europe, and the price action continued to almost erase the early gains into New York.

Background & Materials

Australian employment indicators showed overall resilience, leading to early buying of the Australian dollar

Continued global risk appetite was seen as a factor in pushing up the Australian dollar.

While the narrowing of the rise in U.S. interest rates led to dollar selling at times, the subsequent swing back to the upside also led to some heavy selling on the upside.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The short-term line provided support during the early upswing, and it was easy to pick up the push.

Strong selling pressure from the middle of the European session prevented the short-term uptrend from being sustained.

In NY hours, the selloff from the intraday highs continued and the upper end of the short-term range was noticeably heavier

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The medium-term trend continues to be within a certain range, with ups and downs.

There is room for a test to the upside due to Australian indicators and risk appetite, but it is often held back by U.S. interest rate trends

The upper side of the medium-term range remains a resistance zone, and the direction remains difficult to determine.

impression

The impression of the day was very different between the early part of the day, when reactions to the materials were straightforward, and the fallback after the middle of the European day.

Although there were some signs of buying of the Australian dollar, the issue is that the trend is easily influenced by U.S. interest rates and is subject to change.

There were many amplitudes that were difficult to follow in the short term, and the impression was that entry accuracy without strain was required.

trade observations

The early push was easy to pick up, but the switch to selling dominance from mid-Europe needed to be captured earlier

The market was prone to heavy selling on the return to the market through the New York time, requiring careful decision making for price action.

Price movements were inconsistent in many phases, and it was important to attract and manage positions.

checklist

Are we being overly sensitive to changes in U.S. interest rate trends?

Do you know in advance the upper and lower limits of the medium-term range?

Do you have clear criteria for return selling and push-buying?