Market Summary

On the previous day, uncertainty over U.S. indices led to dollar selling, and the USDJPY was conscious of the heaviness of the upside.

Today, too, the sense of direction is difficult to find amidst limited clues, and we need to carefully check interest rate trends and overseas flows.

Continued attention should be paid to the fact that rebalancing demand due to weekend factors is difficult to read, and short-term swings are likely to occur.

Assumed range

Lower price levels are likely to confirm the settlement

Upper price is a zone that is likely to be weighed down near psychological milestones

Overall, composition to be aware of the range around ____ to ____.

tactics

Today, we will maintain a range rotation and avoid following sudden swings.

If there is a slow breakout either up or down, we will consider taking a short, contrarian action.

During times when there is no movement, the priority is to make a decision not to force a position.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above the recent return high area would confirm a change in the flow

On the downside, we will see if the adjustment expands if the potential push is broken

The results of U.S. indices and interest rate fluctuations before and after their release will determine short-term direction

override condition

If a strong transition clearly outside the central band continues, the assumed range will be reset once.

We will also revisit the scenario in the event of a prolonged bias in one direction in a thinly traded market

We will withdraw our initial tactic if flows change rapidly due to unexpected material in overseas markets.

risk event

U.S. retail-related indicators

Statistics confirming price trends

Flow factors affecting weekend supply and demand

Position Management

Size is kept to a smaller than usual range to withstand short term swing.

The interest rate will be taken early, even if it is small, and once the price movement has stopped, it will be liquidated.

Losses are mechanically executed at points outside the central zone, avoiding deep cuts.

checklist

Check the volatility of interest rates and their reaction before and after the U.S. index

Monitor foreign flows for bias.

Check from time to time for adjustments due to weekend factors.

Market Summary

The previous day, the dollar softened and the euro was supported, and the upward trend continued.

The ground is likely to be dominated by a combination of price and growth indicator confirmations in Europe, while in the US, relative interest rate observations are likely to influence the direction of the market as inflation-related announcements continue to be made.

The situation is prone to a mix of risk appetite and adjustment speculation, and with the weekend flows, we need to be careful of short-term swings.

The environment is prone to a mix of buybacks and profit-taking, and price movements are likely to swing either up or down.

Assumed range

The lower limit is a push level with the low to mid 1.16s in mind.

The upper limit is the zone of easy return to the upper 1.16s to just before 1.17.

It is difficult to plunge in either up or down, and the situation calls for caution in short-term unbalanced price movements.

We would like to take into account that adjustments specific to weekends are likely to be made.

tactics

Basically, we will follow a range rotation axis, and only respond to situations where materials appear by confirming the direction of the market.

The intersection of heavy upside and firm downside prices makes it effective to be prepared not to move excessively in one direction.

Assuming both push-buying and return selling, adjust price taking modestly.

In the short term, do not ride the momentum of price movements too far and prioritize management for reversal risk.

trigger

On the upside, we will see if it is easy to buy back in at the upper 1.16s.

On the downside, watch for the 1.16 area to hold, and if it breaks, watch for further profit-taking.

Volatility is likely to increase during the time of release of U.S. inflation-related indicators.

Be aware of sudden fluctuations due to statements and headlines.

override condition

If the 1.16 breakdown is established, the assumption of a push formation will recede.

On the other hand, if the price clearly exceeds the 1.17 front, the strategy of assuming a return to the market is likely to break down.

If the price continues to move too far to one side of the direction, the range assumption will be revised.

Refrain from unreasonably following a sudden change in short-term volume.

risk event

U.S. inflation-related indicators.

Updated data related to prices and growth in Europe.

Weekend-specific position adjustment trends.

Sudden keynote statement.

Position Management

The size is set more modestly than usual and adjusted to easily accommodate changes in directional feel.

Gains are based on shallow gains, and rewards are secured by pulling back and entering the market.

Cutting losses is based on the most recent milestone, avoiding unreasonable persistence.

Over the weekend, we will also take into account the risk of carryover.

checklist

Are inflation indicators and interest rate observations becoming increasingly biased?

Does it continue to function as a push around 1.16?

How much return pressure remains before 1.17

Market Summary

UK economic indicators continue to show sluggish growth, making it difficult to get a sense of direction in judging policy stance

In the U.S., the dollar's return and adjustment remain mixed, as uncertainty over consumption and prices is a concern

The day before, dollar selling prevailed and the major currencies as a whole rallied, but we continue to be cautious about swings due to weekend flows

The currency pair is likely to remain on the upside while testing the upside, and we need to carefully check the reaction to the material.

Assumed range

The lower limit is near 1.31, which may confirm a temporary push

The upper limit is around 1.32, a level that is easily used as an upper limit in the return phase.

Broadly speaking, we should keep in mind that the range will be between the high 1.30s and low 1.32s

Note that the widening of the price range is likely to depend on the results of U.S. indicators and weekend adjustment flows

tactics

Our basic policy is to focus on selling on the return, and we will consider entering the market on a short-term rebound.

Avoid excessive following and take a cautious approach while checking for the presence or absence of materials and smoothness of price movements

Avoid selling unreasonably in the lower price range and try to make flexible decisions combined with a wait-and-see approach.

Maintain a cautious stance until we get a sense of direction while utilizing the upper and lower range

trigger

The target for an upside breakout is around 1.32, and if a clear move above it is made, we will consider a return to the market and a review of the sell-off.

A break below 1.31 is a likely level to signal a short-term change in trend

Price movements tend to be volatile before and after the release of U.S. indices, and special attention should be paid to the immediate reactions.

Asian time is less liquid, and preparations are required to be ready for price range expansion after entering Europe

override condition

If a break above the 1.32 level is established, we will be forced to adjust our return selling policy

On the downside, if a rebound near 1.31 is not confirmed, the assumption of a push formation weakens

If price movements do not respond to the material and lack directionality, tactics need to be reexamined

When weekend flows are unexpectedly skewed, the premise of a short-term strategy can easily break down

risk event

U.S. price-related indicators

U.S. consumption-related indicators

Statements by key figures in the U.S. and Europe

Position Management

Lot sizes are set lower than usual to prepare for sudden price increases.

We will try to minimize the risk of reversal by keeping the profit margin short.

Losses are placed shallowly to detect changes in direction earlier.

Refrain from aggressive trading if there is a long dwell time between highs and lows

checklist

Priority is given to confirming the dollar's reaction after U.S. indicators.

Upside weight and volume in the vicinity of 1.32

Momentum and push below 1.31

Market Summary

While employment-related indicators in Australia show resilience, uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy remains, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.

The previous day, after a day of buying, the market sold off, and the upward pressure was felt.

Weekend flows may affect the short-term swing of the market.

Environment sensitive to changes in external factors and prone to price movements depending on materials

Assumed range

Assuming a lower limit around 0.65

Upper limit should be around 0.66

Gradually heavier on the upside, watch for slower returns

Hard to plunge downward, but watch out for a break below the milestone.

tactics

Basis is to take a cautious approach, focusing on return sales.

Do not follow a sharp rebound, but confirm the stop of the return and join in

Push-buying should be short-lived unless supported by material

Focus on local momentum rather than overall flow

trigger

Revisit the return line of sight above 0.66.

Confirmation of downside acceleration below 0.65

Reactions on China-related indicators in Asian time

Beware of volatility before and after the release of U.S. indices

override condition

The assumption of a heavier upside is broken when the 0.66 level is established.

If the rebound strengthens after a break below 0.65 and a push formation becomes clear

When unidirectional flow due to external material continues

Situations in which major indicators reacted in the opposite direction of expectations

risk event

China's industrial production and consumption-related indicators

U.S. monetary policy-related statements and interest rate trends

Unbalanced supply and demand due to weekend rebalancing

Variation in the time of day when large flows are likely to occur

Position Management

Size is more modest than usual

Take profits shallowly and prioritize withdrawal upon reversal.

Losses are executed mechanically based on milestones.

Lighten your position once in case of unexpected sudden changes

checklist

Check China-related indicators and AUD reaction

Understand changes in U.S. interest rates and the strength of the dollar

Check for weekend flow bias.

looking back

In the second half of the day, a decline in long-term U.S. interest rates led to dollar selling in the second half of the day in Europe, while in New York, buying back prevailed, resulting in a day of back-and-forth action.

summary

European hours softened slightly due to lower interest rates, and the dollar was easily sold.

In New York, the rebound was progressing and almost eliminated the intraday downward pressure.

Overall, the market was mainly adjustment-driven with interest rates as a cue, and direction was limited.

Today's Price Movement

The downward trend continued through the second half of Europe, with some slow returns at key junctures.

Buying returned early in the New York session, absorbing the first half push and regaining composure.

Although there was a certain degree of up and down swing, the market remained in a stable zone at the end of the day.

Background & Materials

Long-term U.S. interest rates fell in European hours, triggering dollar selling.

In New York, interest rates stopped falling, and risk trends were also a clue that buyers were more likely to buy back in.

Interest in monetary policy in Japan and the U.S. remained strong, with statements and interest rate observations influencing price movements.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

A downward push in the European session pushed the price below the short-term line, but a rebound in New York pushed the price above it again.

On the upside, the recent return highs were conscious, and there were some moves that could not be broken out of and were pushed back.

In the short term, the market continued to move back and forth, with price movements mainly lacking a sense of direction.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The medium-term line continued to hold moderately, and the market remained aware of the upper and lower milestones.

At the push point, a medium-term support zone worked and triggered a rebound.

On the other hand, there was a clear barrier to the upside, and many believed that material support would be needed to break through.

impression

The day was not a good day for direction as the market continued to be reactive to interest rates.

The flow switched between Europe and New York, and the impression was that the traffic was dominated by short-term forces.

The less material available at the time, the easier it was for price movements to swing, and detailed judgment was necessary.

trade observations

The downward push in Europe was difficult to follow, and the return was slow at times.

The New York buyback was easy to follow the trend, but the environment was difficult to follow excessively.

There were many times when the market swung up and down, and risk management was a priority.

checklist

Check for changes in interest rate trends

Watch for reactions near the upper and lower milestones.

Watch out for flow switching in Europe and New York.

looking back

In the second half of the European session, the dollar was sold in response to lower interest rates and then bought back and forth in New York.

summary

Interest rates and sentiment were the key factors, and the euro continued to be supported in the early stages of the session.

Short-term position adjustments prevailed from the middle of the day as investors became aware of swings in stocks and bonds.

Buying back came in at the end of the day, and the euro remained calm as it was unable to chase higher prices.

Today's Price Movement

Asian hours were directionless and prices continued to move in limited ranges.

In European hours, the euro slowly edged lower as dollar selling prevailed in the wake of lower interest rates.

During the New York hour, the dollar was bought back in line with the fluctuations in other markets and turned into a traffic-driven trend.

Background & Materials

Fluctuations in U.S. interest rates were a major theme, with the declining trend weighing on the dollar in the early going.

New material on the European side was limited, and swings in risk appetite affected short-term movements.

In New York, the overall direction of the currencies was dull as investors became aware of the instability in stocks and bonds.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market remained within a range, holding a certain level of lower prices but restraining higher prices.

The market was difficult to get a clear sense of direction due to a mixture of return selling and push-buying around the milestone.

Oscillators were mostly in neutral territory, while momentum was mixed in terms of strength and weakness.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market maintained a gradual recovery trend, but remained conscious of the upper resistance zone.

A certain support zone remained alive, making it easy for a rebound to enter even on the downside.

The medium-term moving averages were flat and the trend was in an indefinite phase.

impression

The external environment, especially interest rates, continued to swing, and short-term price movements seemed fluid.

The euro was alternating between buybacks and sellbacks, making it difficult to see a clear direction.

It was a day with little material, and we felt that the market was sensitive to swings in other markets.

trade observations

The price range was limited, and trading was focused on picking up short-term reactions.

There were many occasions when we felt that the sense of direction was weak and that it would be best to avoid following the market unreasonably.

It was necessary to fine-tune the posture as interest rates fluctuated.

checklist

Linkage between interest rates and other markets

Function of support and resistance zones

Availability of response to short-term swings

looking back

A day of ups and downs but lack of direction following reports of the UK tax policy and lower US interest rates

summary

In the early hours of European time, the UK's tax-related reports were the focus of attention, and swings linked to interest rate movements were noticeable.

Long-term U.S. interest rates declined from mid-Europe, shifting to an environment conducive to dollar sales.

However, no major trend was formed, and a holding pattern continued with the highs and lows gradually narrowing.

The market remained centered on short-term swings with no clear sense of direction until the end of the day.

Today's Price Movement

The pound swung up and down early in the European session against the backdrop of fluctuations in UK interest rates

The dollar was easily sold at a time when U.S. Treasury yields were falling, easing downward pressure

However, the price range was limited, and both highs and lows remained astringent, with a mixture of devaluation and appreciation.

There was no movement to break out of the holding pattern toward the final phase.

Background & Materials

Reports that the U.K. had decided against raising income tax rates attracted attention and affected market interest rate observations

A pickup in U.K. interest rates led to a short-term swing in the pound, making it difficult to get a sense of direction

Long-term interest rates fell in the U.S., creating conditions conducive to dollar selling

However, the impact of the material was limited and did not significantly change the tone of the market.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, a holding pattern was formed with the highs and lows gradually narrowing with up and down swings

Short-term equilibrium conditions were slightly prevailing, making it difficult to generate vigorous push-backs and sell-backs.

Short-term price range remained limited and lacked a sense of direction

No clear breakout was confirmed even near the milestone, and reactions were limited.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market remained in a range, and the direction of the market was not yet clear.

While there were ups and downs, there was little movement that would indicate a change in the mid-term tone of the market.

The market was in a state of struggle, with the advantage of selling on the return and buying at the push point switching hands at times.

Price movements continued to search within a medium-term range, and reactions to materials were limited.

impression

A mixed day of UK materials and US interest rate developments made it difficult for the market to find positive direction.

One-way flow was scarce, and trading tended to be mainly short-term.

Although materials were released, they were not strong enough to move the market significantly, and the market remained in a holding pattern.

From a medium-term perspective, the market continued to search within the equilibrium zone, and there was an undeniable lack of movement.

trade observations

With little sense of direction, excessive following was a risky development.

It was possible to enter the market in response to short-term reactions, but the price range was limited and it was difficult to secure profit margins.

Reactions to the milestones were also lacking clarity, and points of advantage were limited

Overall, it was a phase that required a cautious approach.

checklist

Check for material continuity and changes in interest rate trends

Verify whether or not the holding continues on a short-term basis

Do not expect excessive reactions near the milestone

looking back

The day started with some buying in Tokyo, but was followed by a strong sell-off, and then a day with no clear sense of direction, even as dollar selling intensified in the second half of the day in Europe due to lower U.S. interest rates.

summary

Although the Australian dollar was bought early in the day, the return of the dollar was weighed down by a heavy sell-off to the upside.

In the second half of the European session, the dollar was sold against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates, and the Australian dollar was volatile with a mixture of downside and upsides.

As a result, the daily session was short on substance and closed without a full set of reactions to the intraday material.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo opened with a predominance of buyers and tested the upward direction once, continuing the previous day's trend.

However, the market gradually returned to its normal state and continued to be heavy after entering Europe.

In the second half of the European session, the dollar was sold off due to lower U.S. interest rates, but the return of the Australian dollar was also limited, and price movements continued to lack a sense of direction.

Background & Materials

While there was an awareness of the resilience of the Australian economy, caution about the Chinese economy was a factor limiting the return of the Australian dollar.

With continued uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy, swings in the level of interest rates were likely to affect the direction of the exchange rate.

Market reactions to external risk factors were not stable, resulting in a lack of energy to the Australian dollar.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the upward pressure was noticeably heavier, and the phase in which the pressure to return to the market was likely to prevail continued.

The daily legs have little substance, and the direction of the short-term trend is difficult to define.

Although there was some pushback in the short-term support zone, the trend continued to lack momentum.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, there is no clear breakout from the holding zone and the market continues to swing up and down.

Stalling continued in the major resistance zones, and upside energy was somewhat lacking.

The environment remains susceptible to external materials, making it difficult to solidify the medium-term trend.

impression

Buying and selling were mixed throughout the day, giving the impression that market participants are leaning toward a cautious stance.

Although there was some dollar selling associated with the change in U.S. interest rates, the thrust of the Australian dollar itself was limited.

The day was marked by a continued lack of direction and a disparity in price movements.

trade observations

The upward direction was difficult to follow for a long period of time as the return selling prevailed on many occasions.

Although buyers bought at the pushpoints, it was difficult to extend, and short-term settlements were the main focus of the market.

The market was not showing any sense of direction, and therefore, position management with limited risk was required.

checklist

Confirmation of short-term return point and support zone

Check US interest rate trends and the dollar's reaction

Understand changes in the external environment (China-related and market sentiment)