Market Summary

Amid shaky U.S. interest rate expectations and a sense of weakness in Japanese economic indicators, the U.S. dollar and yen are struggling to higher levels

The policy outlook for Japan and the U.S. is unclear, and the tug-of-war between upside caution and the risk of sudden yen appreciation continues, even against the backdrop of a weakening yen.

Assumed range

Today, we expect a range around 153.00-156.00, with the upper price range being the recent highs and the lower price range being the likely candidates for a push.

During times when indicators and key figures are scarce, it is easy for the price to move back and forth within the range, and new materials will be needed for a clear breakout.

tactics

The basic stance is to buy at the push point, but avoid chasing high prices and carefully pick up short-term pushes.

As long as the daily upward trend is maintained, it is safe to assume that a sharp downturn is a temporary adjustment and to combine split gains on the return phase.

trigger

To the upside, we will check for a continued break above the 155.50 area, and the entry condition is that the spread and volume remain calm after the break

On the downside, we will watch for a test from below 153.50 to the 153.00 area, and take the phase where the downside stop sign is seen on the short-term leg as a candidate for a push.

override condition

If the price closes below 152.50 and the highs and lows become clear on the daily basis, we will revisit the push-buy scenario once again.

Even if U.S. interest rates fall more than expected and the overall upward pressure on the dollar weakens, the stance of assuming a stronger dollar will need to be revised

risk event

If Japanese growth-related indicators or price statistics deviate from expectations, the Bank of Japan's stance could change and the direction of the yen could easily waver.

On the U.S. side, manufacturing indicators and statements from monetary officials could move views on the timing of rate cuts and affect the trend of the dollar

Position Management

Position sizes are kept smaller than usual and stop-loss levels are placed outside of the expected range, so that the market is not easily swayed by temporary noise.

Profit-taking will be done in stages, using the most recent return high or push low as a guide, and we will try not to chase unrealized profits too much at a time.

checklist

Have you checked the position of the uptrend line and the major moving average on the daily chart?

Are you aware of the calendar of major indicators to be released today and the schedule of key figures' statements?

Have you checked in advance the balance between the risk reward and the stop-loss level placed outside the expected range?

Market Summary

Today's confirmation of the Eurozone inflation indicator is scheduled, and there is an awareness of the balance between the degree of price slowdown and the prospect of interest rate cuts

The previous day, the upside was restrained, and there was intermittent testing of the downside with a slow return.

The U.S. side also has important indicators coming up, and is still searching for a sense of direction while keeping a close eye on interest rates and stock market trends.

Assumed range

Assumed range is around 1.1550-1.1660, with a swing between the previous day's low and the recent return high in mind

To the downside, it will be interesting to see if selling strengthens further at the previous day's lows and a little below that zone.

To the upside, we expect a return to the upper 1.16s, and avoid chasing the upper end of the range.

tactics

The basic stance is to sell on the return, and to consider entry after waiting for the return phase in European time.

We want to maintain the image of taking diversified positions near clear milestones and carefully picking up short-term price ranges.

Avoid jumping in immediately after a break below a milestone, as it is easy to get caught up in overhang on the downside.

trigger

The initial reaction after the confirmation of the Eurozone inflation indicator should be the first determinant of whether euro selling will prevail.

If the previous day's low is clearly below the previous day's low and the return remains weak, we would consider a slightly stronger return stance.

On the other hand, if the index continues to move higher and stays in the upper 1.16s, we would like to switch to a wait-and-see approach.

override condition

If the pair breaks above the 1.1660 area and remains calm above it, we would like to revise our sell-back scenario.

If the market quickly turns back up after testing the bottom and renews the previous day's high, we would like to remove the assumption of a downside advantage once and for all.

Refrain from aggressive trading even if volatility drops sharply after the index and the market remains in a narrow price range.

risk event

If the Eurozone inflation indicator's confirmed reading deviates significantly from expectations, watch out for a brief change in direction.

Be aware of downside risk to the Eurodollar due to dollar buybacks in the event of a sharp move in U.S. business confidence-related indicators or long-term interest rates

When sentiment changes due to key figures' statements or sudden headlines, we want to be flexible and not stick to a prior scenario.

Position Management

Overall, I'd like to keep the lot size somewhat low and trade in a size that can withstand a swing within the expected range.

Losses should be placed slightly outside the recent highs and lows, and an early exit should be made in the event of a different move than expected.

Priority should be placed on taking profits a little before the center of the range, without being too greedy.

checklist

Did you check how the volume and board thickness around the milestone changed before and after the European entry?

Do you have an understanding of the price movements and spread widening before and after the index and can you visualize the execution risk?

Have you organized the daily candlestick patterns and the patterns of highs and lows over the past few days and checked for any inconsistencies with the scenario?

Market Summary

Speculation on the interest rate outlook is mixed ahead of the U.K. CPI, and the U.S. side continues to find it difficult to give a sense of direction ahead of the meeting summary.

Pound dollar converges at highs and lows with ups and downs and is conscious of holding

Although a short-term return test was seen, neither the upper nor lower levels were clearly broken through, and the transition continues to search for a power relationship.

The wait-and-see attitude before major events remains, and the market is likely to wait for a way out of the holding pattern.

Assumed range

Around 1.3100 to around 1.3190

No clear breakthrough both up and down, and the market is conscious of remaining within a holding frame.

Price range is likely to be limited until the event passes

Direction tends to change depending on materials

tactics

Range Rotation

Ready to pick up small push backs while checking for upside and downside

Avoid excessive following based on the assumption that the market will continue to hold.

In the event of a sudden change, early withdrawal is a priority.

trigger

The upside is above the 1.3190 area to be confirmed.

Downside is a clear break below around 1.3100

Initial reaction after UK CPI and U.S. minutes

Also note the momentum entering European hours.

override condition

If the upper or lower holding limit is broken out with strong momentum

If the post-event sense of direction is biased in one direction

If a series of short-term return attempts continue

If the reaction of the main line slows down

risk event

British CPI

FOMC Meeting Agenda

Preliminary PMIs for Europe and the U.S.

UK Retail Data

Position Management

Moderate size and keep rotation within the expected range.

Set gains in small increments and make adjustments based on a limited sense of price range.

Losses are executed earlier as the up and down break moves.

Avoid leaving positions after sudden changes

checklist

Tilt of the holding and the degree of proximity to the upper and lower edges

Directionality around UK CPI and U.S. Proceedings

Flow and momentum after the start of European hours

Market Summary

In Australia, while the expectation of an early interest rate cut is receding against the backdrop of firm employment indicators, the wait-and-see mood is continuing as wage indicators and RBA-related events are scheduled for this week.

On the U.S. side, interest rate expectations have come and gone, and the dollar has been in a mixed phase of buying back and risk appetite returning, with the Australian dollar also susceptible to changes in the external environment.

The AUDUSD has been mainly in the 0.65 level for a while now, and after a round of gains until last week, it has started without a major breakdown, although we are aware of a little bit of upward pressure

The daily moving average is now in the vicinity of the moving average, and whether or not it can be maintained is likely to be the focus of the early part of this week's session

Assumed range

Today, the main scenario is the range around 0.6450-0.6550, with a push-buy appetite in the upper 0.64s and a sell-back mindset in the mid 0.65s.

In Asia, price range is likely to be limited due to the waiting for the event, and we expect the market to test ups and downs based on US interest rates and stock market movements after London.

On a weekly basis, the market is in a position where adjustments are likely to occur at the highs while maintaining a slight return trend, and it is important to be aware of the need to separate the short- and medium-term range feeling

Rather than assuming a major trend reversal, we first want to carefully check the direction of convergence and break within the above range.

tactics

The basic tactic should be range-buying, with a gradual push-buying approach without excessive chasing around 0.6450, and a return to the 0.6550 area as an option.

New entries near the center of the range tend to have poor risk rewards, so we want to be conscious of operating mainly at limit prices that are pulled back as much as possible while checking volatility and spreads.

When short-term technical indicators show overheating, it is best to hold down the size of the position regardless of the direction, leaving room for a wait-and-see attitude, so that it is easier to respond to swings during events.

During times when it is difficult to get a sense of direction, there is room to consider the option of not being greedy for price action and limiting entries to a limited number of positions that are better than multiple intraday turns.

trigger

A clear break above 0.6550 would be a trigger to the upside, and a clear break above this level would make it easier to consider a short-term follow-through to the upper end of the range.

To the downside, a warning line is below 0.6450, and a move below that line on a closing basis would trigger a more cautious reassessment of our buying stance.

In terms of time frames, price movements in the morning in London and before and after the release of U.S. indices in early New York often determine the intraday range, so care should be taken not to add too many new positions around these times.

As the release of the Australian wage index approaches, the spread is likely to widen when liquidity is thin in Oceania time, and market orders should be handled with caution.

override condition

If the price quickly rises to the 0.6600 level and stays at the highs all day, the range-bound sell-back strategy will need to be revised and there will be room to consider trend-following.

On the downside, if the price stays below 0.6400 for a long time or a rapid risk-off market triggered by the event materializes, a switch to flat is an option once the stance on the push-buy assumption

If the technicals show a slow return despite a significant break below the moving average or trend line, it is a sign that the recognition of short-term support has broken down and a cautious decision is required

In either case, it is important to consider it as a time to revise the scenario itself when the price movement clearly exceeds the volatility or intraday range that you have assumed.

risk event

With the Australian wage index and RBA-related releases scheduled for this week, the timing is likely to change the market's view on the future path of interest rates depending on the strength or weakness of wage inflation

On the U.S. side, inflation and business confidence indices are coming up, and the overall direction of the dollar may be affected by the reaction of interest rates and the stock market, so we need to pay attention not only to the results but also to how the market perceives them.

News about China and resource prices can easily influence Australian dollar sentiment, and it is important to keep an eye on iron ore prices and headlines related to China.

Since unscheduled key figures' statements and headlines of geopolitical risks can easily increase price movements in a short period of time, it is advisable to reconfirm the basic rule of not leaving positions open for long periods of time!

Position Management

On days like today, when there are multiple events coming up, it is important to keep position sizes smaller than usual, and to ensure that there is adequate room to cut losses and take profits outside of the expected range.

Even when combining buying near the lower end of the range and selling near the upper end of the range, it is effective to operate with an awareness of the average open price, assuming split entries and split closes, rather than opening all at once.

Since it is easy to get caught in widening spreads and temporary whiskers before and after indicators, you should decide in advance when you will refrain from placing new orders and concentrate on managing positions you have opened in advance to reduce risk.

It is also easier to control mental fluctuations by setting a maximum allowable daily loss amount and then not making new entries when that amount is reached, for example.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule and content of the Australian wage index and RBA-related headlines?

Are you aware of how movements in U.S. interest rates and stock indexes are spilling over into the overall dollar and AUDUSD?

Do you enter the market after deciding on the expected range, stop-loss level, and the maximum allowable loss for the day?

looking back

Buying was seen in Tokyo and Europe, and buying momentum strengthened in New York and exceeded last week's highs, but the market settled down at the highs.

summary

The yen was conscious of its upside potential, and overall, the day continued to be a supportive day for the dollar.

Buying prevailed through overseas hours, and the price continued to hold near the milestone level.

Market reactions were limited and there was no excessive reaction to the material.

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo, the trend from the previous day continued, with moderate buying prevailing.

The European session also followed a similar direction, with a certain amount of buying back in the downside.

In New York, buying intensified and the market closed higher, exceeding last week's highs at times.

Background & Materials

The US indices remained firm, which was seen as a support for the dollar.

Speculation on U.S. monetary policy remained largely unchanged, limiting yen buying due to the swing in risk appetite.

On the Japanese side, there were no major changes in economic indicators or policy developments, and market attention turned to external factors.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The structure continued to be shallowly pushed while maintaining the highs in the short term.

The market was seen attacking and defending near the milestone, but buyers were aware of the easy buying at lower prices.

Toward the end of the day, the momentum calmed down and the price range gradually narrowed.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market maintained an upward trend, and the trend to pick up the push was seen as prevailing.

The direction of the market remained largely unchanged, as buying was easy near the moving averages.

On the other hand, there was also a cautious attitude at higher prices, and excessive following was restrained.

impression

Underlying support was confirmed despite the lack of materials, and direction was easily influenced by external factors.

The short-term momentum overlapped with the medium-term tone, and the overall buying trend, although quiet, appeared to be prevailing.

Going forward, the market reaction should be closely monitored as the price range is likely to change depending on the price range and materials.

trade observations

The shallowness of the push was confirmed by the reaction near the milestone.

The ease of buying back into the market was impressive, although the highs were cautiously high.

I got the impression that adjustments should be made according to short-term waves, and that unreasonable positions should be avoided.

checklist

Did you see the reaction around the milestone?

Did you compare the depth of the push with the strength of the return?

Did you take into account the direction of overseas time?

looking back

Tokyo and Europe lacked direction, while dollar buying prevailed in New York, strengthening the trend to test lower prices on the day.

summary

The sluggish growth of price indicators in the Eurozone, coupled with the cautious stance of officials, continued to weigh on the upside.

U.S. dollar was easily supported by firmness in U.S. indices and receding expectations of early easing.

Returns were limited and mainly remained at the lows until the end of the day.

Overall, a straightforward weakening of the euro and a strengthening of the dollar in line with the material was noted.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo session remained in a small range, with price movements lacking a sense of direction.

After entering Europe, the market was dominated by return selling, confirming the heaviness of the upward trend.

In New York, the dollar was bought and tested the downside, cutting the lows slightly.

Returns were limited toward the end of the day, and the trend remained weak throughout the day.

Background & Materials

Growth in price-related indicators in the eurozone slowed, creating an environment that is likely to raise awareness of the possibility of interest rate cuts.

The cautious stance of officials was confirmed, and there were few factors that would lead to aggressive euro buying.

U.S. indicators showed resilience and the dollar remained relatively firm

Overall, the market remained in favor of the dollar, while maintaining a wait-and-see attitude toward key statistics and officials' statements

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, an upper resistance zone was recognized, and selling was likely to occur in the return phase.

While the lower price maintained a certain level of support, the momentum of the reversal was weak and the sense of direction tilted to the downside

Oscillators remained near neutral territory, with limited bias toward strength and weakness.

In the short term, price movements remained conscious of the lower end of the range

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the trend remained below the major moving averages, and the return trend continued to pause.

The flow was easily perceived as a bit heavy as the upper price milestone could not be crossed.

The balance of the price range tended to tilt downward, but signs of a major breakdown were limited.

From a medium-term viewpoint, the continued holding between the support and resistance zones was confirmed.

impression

The market continued to be directionless, and there was a strong sense of waiting for materials in the short term.

The impression remained that the U.S. dollar maintained relative strength due to the firmness of U.S. indices

Weak materials on the euro side of the market easily suppressed the momentum of the return.

A series of price movements were felt to be mainly a straightforward reaction in line with the material

trade observations

It was difficult to extend either up or down, and it was necessary to accumulate a fine price range.

Although there were some return sales, there were many price movements that were difficult to follow.

It was also difficult to judge short-term pushes, and excessive position management was to be avoided.

A clear breakthrough was hard to come by, and the day called for a cautious response.

checklist

Confirmation of key indicators and statements

Understanding the upper and lower limits of the short-term range

Observations on whether the trend of dollar dominance will continue

looking back

The dollar was bought in Europe, but the dollar was bought back to the upside in New York.

summary

In the European hour, downside concerns receded slightly, but overall it was difficult to get a clear sense of direction.

The dollar was easily bought during the New York hour, and the ups and downs were restrained as the holding pattern continued

Although there was a reaction to short-term materials, it was a day that did not lead to a major change in the underlying tone of the market.

Today's Price Movement

Early in the European session, there was a buy-back and a lull in the downward trend was seen for a period of time

In New York, dollar buying prevailed, narrowing the gains accumulated in Europe

As a result, the market was mainly moving back and forth within the holding zone, with limited sense of direction.

Background & Materials

Continued market caution regarding the fiscal management of the U.K. was a factor limiting the return of the pound.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar continued to be easily bought while holding back due to the upcoming release of U.S. indices.

Both currencies were difficult to find positive direction, and reactions to the material were likely to switch from one time zone to the next.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

On the short-term axis, the price continued to hold and was unable to break out of both the upward and downward directions

The market was easily pushed back when a recovery was made, and trading was easily intermingled around the milestone.

Although there were up and down swings in short periods of time, there was not enough momentum to dictate the flow.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market remained in a wide range, and it remained difficult to determine the direction of the trend.

Reactions near the milestone provided certain clues, but movements with continuity were limited

The trend of the time of day was more influential than the materials, and both the upper and lower prices lacked decisiveness.

impression

The impression was that the strength and weakness of the materials swapped during the hour, and the market continued to move in a lack of direction.

Although there were some short-term movements, the overall trend was difficult to consolidate, and a cautious stance was consciously maintained.

It was felt that the environment was likely to continue to hold similarly unless there was some sudden material

trade observations

Buying back in Europe and selling back in New York were mixed, and it was difficult to judge the push and pull in many cases!

It was difficult to pick up short-term reactions, and it was hard to extend gains.

Until a clear direction emerged, it was a phase that demanded a cautious response, not an overzealous pursuit.

checklist

Price movements do not maintain a holding range?

Is there any change in material reaction between Europe and New York?

Is the reaction near the milestone consistent?

looking back

Tokyo and Europe lacked a sense of direction, while dollar buying prevailed in New York, pushing the market lower for the day.

summary

Overall, the trend of dollar dominance is being recognized, and the Australian dollar is showing a slow return.

With major events coming up, positive cues were scarce, and pressure toward the lower end of the range was conscious.

The mood remained cautious throughout the day, as the market was mainly in a lower price range at the end of the day

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time: limited directional movement due to the lack of materials and mainly small comings and goings.

In Europe, buy-backs and sell-backs were mixed, and the price range did not widen.

In New York, dollar buying prevailed and the downward push continued, with a slow return to the close.

Background & Materials

Speculation about U.S. monetary policy continued to swing, and interest rate volatility led to dollar firmness

Global risk aversion and sensitivity to resource and economic trends make it difficult to buy the Australian dollar.

Cautiousness in the overall market ahead of Australia-related indicators and major economic events in the country

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market is likely to be conscious of a return to the market, and the upward pressure is noticeably heavy.

The offensive around the milestone continued, and the rebound phase remained limited.

Although there are signs of a bottoming out around the support area, a clear turnaround is difficult to confirm.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market will continue to move within a wide range, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.

The lineup of moving averages is a mixture of strength and weakness, and it seems difficult to form a clear trend.

In the medium term, the company is strongly waiting for materials, and the situation is likely to swing either up or down depending on the external environment.

impression

There were no major changes in the day's flow, and the main driver was the firmness of the dollar.

The lack of momentum in the return phase reaffirmed the lack of buying power for the Australian dollar.

The impression is that the market continues to be cautious, trying to determine the next events and indicators

trade observations

Short-term sell-offs are likely to continue to work, but excessive follow-through should be avoided.

When chasing lower prices, beware of a rebound near the milestone, and adjust your positions without undue effort.

Medium-term: difficult to get a clear direction, so we would like to maintain a wait-and-see attitude for clues

checklist

Check the reaction near the milestone.

Check for changes in interest rate and dollar trends

Confirm positioning of major events and market incorporation